Consumer Confidence: Democrats Expect "Deep Recession", Republicans Look To New Golden Age

Tyler Durden's picture

UMich consumer confidence rose in the preliminary March print, beating expectations at 97.6 with current conditions surging but expectations stalling somewhat.

This exuberance is occurring as real earnings growth slumps. But crucially, the partisan divide is unprecedented.


The overall level of consumer sentiment remained quite favorable in early March due to renewed strength in current economic conditions as well as the extraordinary influence of partisanship on economic prospects.

The Current Economic Conditions component reached its highest level since 2000, largely due to improved personal finances. While current economic conditions were not affected by partisanship, this was not true for the component about future economic prospects: among Democrats, the Expectations Index at 55.3 signaled that a deep recession was imminent, while among Republicans the Index at 122.4 indicated a new era of robust economic growth was ahead.

Interestingly, those who self-identified as Independents had an Expectations Index of 88.3, which was nearly equal to the midpoint of the partisan difference.

Importantly, there was no moderation in these extreme views from last month, with the maintenance of the partisan divide fueled by selective attention to economic news, with Democrats more frequently reporting unfavorable developments and Republicans more frequently hearing of favorable changes.

Expectations regarding future economic conditions remained highly partisan. Continuous good times in the economy over the next five years were expected by 87% of Republicans, but only 22% of Democrats. In contrast, renewed economy-wide downturns were anticipated by 71% of Democrats, but only 11% of Republicans. This would imply that Republicans anticipate the longest economic expansion in more than a century. Perhaps even more extreme were expectations regarding unemployment: 75% of Republicans anticipated declining unemployment, compared with just 12% of Democrats. Indeed, based on the traditional correspondence between unemployment expectations and subsequent changes in the unemployment rate, the Republican data would be consistent with a zero unemployment rate in 2018! While the Republican data certainly represent unattainable outcomes, the data for Democrats, while within traditional ranges, also represent extreme predictions.

Overall, the sentiment data has been characterized by rising optimism as well as by rising uncertainty due to the partisan divide. Optimism promotes discretionary spending, and uncertainty makes consumers more cautious spenders. This combination will result in uneven spending gains over time and across products.

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venturen's picture

many democrats are expecting to be they are here illegally

J bones's picture

Left or right there's no way with all the hard data and the market ready to tumble like Jenga blocks that anyone couldn't think a full on recession isnt here and about to be public.

It's by Design's picture

And if Hillary had won, would the numbers be reversed?

Mustafa Kemal's picture

"And if Hillary had won, would the numbers be reversed?"

Who cares?

shimmy's picture

Humans are so damn dumb with their biases. 

az_patriot's picture

Recession for Democrats:  "I can't take what you have".

Golden Age for Republicans:  "You can't steal from me what you didn't earn".

Mustafa Kemal's picture

"Golden Age for Republicans:  "You can't steal from me what you didn't earn"."

Thats the meme, but it is a lie.

The truth is more like they will steal more than they have in the past. It will be the Golden Age of Kleptocracy. Note how easy it is to Repeal Obamacare. 

Ricki13th's picture

This data is what the elites look at and laugh at the average joe. Your wages are stagnant and declining but yet your ok with it. Meanwhile War drums are beating to distract them next. 

FreeShitter's picture

Only when joe clueless fucking sixpack wakes up homeless and hungry.

Iconoclast421's picture

"the longest economic expansion in more than a century"


First you have to have an economic expansion in order to have the longest economic expansion in more than a century. This is just a debt expansion.

south40_dreams's picture

Smells like depression to me

how_this_stuff_works's picture

And what people have forgotten is that the US and the world never recovered from 1929 until WW II came along.

TrustbutVerify's picture

By doubling the national debt over 9 years, coupled with phony non-market 'ZIRP' interest rates, refusing to address impossible pension promises, and doubling down on the exportation of American jobs over the past 8 years (yes, it was happening before that, too) the "DEEP RECESSION" is "baked in the cake."

PH4CRMAGIC's picture

Can we get on with the Apocalypse? I need to recup my investment in lute lessons. Green Beer planning has me forcasting several years as a travelling minstrel rather than an analyst. Seeing as I'm not getting any younger, I need to get on with it.

MuffDiver69's picture

Recession and Golden Age are loaded words. If your a democrat the exact same conditions you liked are a recession now and if you are a casual viewer of MSM this is NAZI germany now....I would like to see any poll two months after a presidency switched parties that the winning side doesn't answer every question wildly optimistic....These polls don't prove a damn thing except human nature...

Publicus's picture

We are going to CRUSH the democrats.

Davidduke2000's picture

I hve to agree with the democrats even though I hate them, but all indications are that a crash is almost here. 

DrBrown's picture

Where's milliondollardogshit?

Rich Monk's picture

It that before or after the economic collapse, civil war or WWIII?

lasvegaspersona's picture

Finally the Ds are correct 'bout sumpin....

coast1's picture

I think when a person labels themselves something, whether it be republican, democrat, christian, muslim etc. well, ya only put yourself in a box.  A very little one, with no door.

Latitude25's picture


PoasterToaster's picture
PoasterToaster (not verified) Mar 17, 2017 12:03 PM

It's true in both cases.  There are two economies and two constituencies, one for each economy.  When one economy is doing well, the other suffers.

It's by design.

laomei's picture

Those who work for a living see a good future

 Parasites are terrified.

This is why we voted for Trump. We want to hurt you badly and destroy your shitty little world.

gizmotron's picture

The oligarchs have it under control. No worries. Keep that money flowing up.