Hedge Fund CIO: "The Odds Of Trump Succeeding Are Zero In The Absence Of A New War"

Tyler Durden's picture

We present the latest weekly anecdote, From Eric Peters, CIO Of One River Asset Management

“You know what I dislike about my own argument?” asked the CIO. “I sound defensive, like I can’t accept I’m wrong.”

We all know that guy, and rarely want to be him. “No one ever truly believed in my thesis,” he said, describing it: A growing dominance by the global economic elite shapes policy to deliberately asphyxiate dynamism. Because dynamism and its fraternal twin – volatility - are the only real threats to an entrenched elite.

Rising income inequality is an obvious manifestation of this process. As the cost of raising children soars, declining birth rates are too.

It’s why our students are drowning in debt and now rent for life. If they fall ill, it’s why laws prohibit them from declaring bankruptcy on college loans. It’s why big firms are bailed out, and why incumbents are securely gerrymandered, rarely unseated.

Peel back the patina and you’ll discover that today’s monetary policy, tax policy, foreign policy, trade policy, and regulations of every stripe are levers the elite pull to entrench their interests. Secular stagnation is what we came to call the symptom without identifying this cause. Then came a synchronized global cyclical recovery, which we may now confuse as a Trump inspired break from this stranglehold.

“If I thought our new president could increase budget deficits by another 2% per year, my thesis would crumble. I’d be wrong. But the odds of this are zero in the absence of starting a new war.” He paused, considering the rebound in interest rates, the record equity highs.

“Am I just looking for reasons to support my position?” he asked aloud, interested only in his own answer. “I’ve been wrong on trades, but never on a big structural theme. That’s because I only bet really big when I’m absolutely convinced. And I’m pretty sure I’m still right.”

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Belrev's picture

Trump has about 2% chance of being elected President of USA. - 2016 consenus expert opinion.

NidStyles's picture

Jews are demanding he appeases their demands for a new war against people they want off the land they wish to occupy. Better do it for them goys or they will be upset and pay people to be revolutionaries.


Just more "Greater Yisrael" crap from the choosenite crowd.

Belrev's picture

The goyim only have themselves to blame for being stupid and treasonous cowards. You don't find jews acting against jews ever regardless of their poitical views.

NidStyles's picture

LOL! Bullshit, they fight among themselves just as often. They never betray the agenda though, and those that try to end up getting ran over by their own Range Rover. Even if they are famous actors.


I mean, have you read the indoctrination they use on their own children? It's no wonder they all grow up as borderline sociopaths. The child molestation and psychological torture and brainwashing into the holohoax-choosenite religion makes it very clear that they should have all children removed, and their "traditions" outlawed as child abuse.

Belrev's picture

What you say is fine, but they are on top and that is the fact and they are destroying countries and you seem powerless to stop them. By now everyone has read The Protocols, knows that jews control everyting and then what? What can any of us do anything about it?

BaBaBouy's picture

Unfortunately NK is playing right into this Thesis, Jong goading Trump, Jong will get War, and we will pay for it...
Same Chit, different Actors...

Big question is how would Russia/China react ???

xythras's picture
xythras (not verified) BaBaBouy Mar 19, 2017 3:14 PM

Here's an ideea for starting a war: SNUFF ERDOGAN and give the Turkey to Putin to butcher it.

“You Are Europe’s Future”: Erdogan Tells Turks Abroad to Have 5 Children




If one country deserves to be wiped out, that's Turkey. Then Saudi Arabia, then Israel.

Grave's picture

non whites can try to invade and take over europe all they want, by any means.

not going to work

fimbulvinter is coming, the great long winter, the next ice age

and only the apex white humans will survive,
for they evolved in harsh and cold european environment.

survival of the fittest for given environment.
evolution, nature.

Giant Meteor's picture

I'm fine with that. Will they have white walkers too ?

techies-r-us's picture
techies-r-us (not verified) Giant Meteor Mar 19, 2017 8:20 PM

The message of the article is clear: Get ready for World War 3, the last US Imperial adventure.


kavlar's picture
kavlar (not verified) techies-r-us Mar 19, 2017 8:22 PM

Brought to you by the Jewish neocons for IsraHELL.

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) Grave Mar 19, 2017 5:03 PM

Why is war the answer.

How did that Iraq war workout for Bush and us?

Mustafa Kemal's picture

"Why is war the answer."

Because it distracts from the disagreements at home. Look, see those bad people ofer there!. 

How did that Iraq war workout for Bush and us?"

 It wont be good for us. Therir only problem is how to have it, but not have it take them with it. 


The Merovingian's picture

Fuck it, I am totally fine with another war. Can we fucking liberate Portland where I live? How about a massive invasion and carpet bombing of San Francisco? Shit, I'd be fine with just droning Facebook as long as Zuckerberg is in the building.

Okay, okay ... I'm just kidding. Seriously, just kidding ... how about we compromise and just let Mexico have it?

Gen. Ripper's picture

DJT needs to annex Mexico for a few trillion

hope_talk's picture
hope_talk (not verified) Gen. Ripper Mar 19, 2017 5:36 PM

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... http://bit.ly/2jdTzrM

TrajanOptimus's picture

That article read like a buzz gone bad.

Stick to domestic next time.

Winston Churchill's picture

They've been very clear on that.They will intervene in any country the US tries to"LIbya".

The Chinese are so pissed off about THAAD deployment, they might even cross the Yalu.

kellys_eye's picture

Given the 'failures' to incite global conflict via Ukraine, Syria, Iran, Libya, Russia etc perhaps they'll 'get it right' with NK.......

Raging Debate's picture

Have you considered that China may use North Korea as the opening Salvo to WW3? As trade slows there and debt levels are high it may make sense for them to begin a war to avoid a potential civil wwr. They seem to have those every couple generations and they are very bloody. Trump may have this kind of intelligence in hand. 

NidStyles's picture

LOL!  D:



Praise Kek, or never understand what victory is.

toady's picture

Remember when the only thing we had to fear was fear itself? 

Nobody else does!

Sanity Bear's picture

After reading this article, I purple fishes hula hoop.

Giant Meteor's picture

Well all I can say is, its really nice to knows that a bear or two still has a bit of sanity left.

Well done!

gatorengineer's picture

Ok, the bear cant figure out what 1% of 20 trillion is, not a smart bear.  yellen raising 1% total would increase interest expenses 200 Billion a year.  that's roughly 5%...  Just on the Old Yeller....  MIC will get its pound of flesh, and the republicans will make sure the poor still get new Iphones and 200 sneakers....

Giant Meteor's picture

 "yellen raising 1% total would increase interest expenses 200 Billion a year.  that's roughly 5%...  Just on the Old Yeller."

Well my first thought was, they'll make it up in volume ..

But hell, death, maiming, and destruction is no laughing matter. I really need to knock that shit off ...

The Wizard's picture

Another moron from the Keynesian school of fiat. He fails to mention the debt in his opinion piece. Most of the 20 Trillion (a low bogus number) is from a continual state of war.

Sanity Bear's picture

Oh no, I gave up on sanity a long time ago. Too much work, really.

That's my economic outlook... the core hypothesis is that events will become less sane over time.

So far it's held up damn well, if you ask me.

Giant Meteor's picture

Those were the good ole days of deep state inspiration. Now its mostly deep state perspiration;, or failing that


e_goldstein's picture

There is no god but Kek, and Pepe is his prophet.

By the way, you linked to the dumbest fucking thing I think I have ever read.


flaminratzazz's picture

What can any of us do anything about it?

Hitler II

but this time, do it right.

Consuelo's picture



You won't have to 'do' anything about it...


A few more Jordanian Arab (AKA: 'Palestinians'), child carcasses lining the streets and the world as a whole is going to turn on the dancing-in-the-streeters.   There is already a simmering-near-boil undercurrent on this issue.   Give it another year or so.

flaminratzazz's picture

The Jew is never satisfied..

Belrev's picture

This must be the receipe of their success. When a goyim wins, he rests on laurels. When a jew wins, he increases the effort to win even more. Can't blame jews for being the way they are. It is the goyim that don't stand up to them.

flaminratzazz's picture

unbridled greed is not a good asset. it will destroy everything and everyone around it.

and it sure as hell should not be worshiped like you seem to.

NidStyles's picture

Even worse, they are greedy for the same currency they created, which means they just want their own money, not anyone else's.

flaminratzazz's picture

The enslavement of others is the ultimate prize and the amassing of fiat works wonders in that policy,.

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) flaminratzazz Mar 19, 2017 3:08 PM

They are satanic, they must keep going. It has long been said (back when you could say it) that the Jew is very nervous, always in action.

He can not enjoy the beauty of nature, being still and reflective, drinking in Gods creation.

This is the pact made with Satan, you serve him. You must keep the destruction going for all eternity.

Jeffersonian Liberal's picture

We need more people to wake up to the fact that it has been largely secular Jews who have been subversively rotting Western Civilization from the inside of whichever nations they are allowed to reside in.

They consider themselves a separate race entirely.

And they consider non-Jews (Goys, gentiles) to have been created by their God to be their slaves and servants.

They hate (with a pathological and self-fanning flame) the white race and especially white Christians.

For an eye-opening read, try MacDonald's "The Culture of Critique."

That work is a non-anti-Semitic expose of Jewish involvement in the subversive attack on white Christians as Creature from Jekyll Island is an expose on central banking and America's central bank (the Federal Reserve).

NidStyles's picture

Not just secular Jews, Orthodox ones are involved as well.

Obadiah's picture

We must separate those that SAY they are jews BUT DO LIE, but are of the syanagog of Satan.  I think Pharasee would be a better term, or sons of the first murderer Cain

Giant Meteor's picture

Can't get no sat tis faction ..

But I try, and I try ..

Meh, sometimes its just the tryin that counts ..

Krungle's picture

Jews wish to occupy Yemen and North Korea?

Giant Meteor's picture

Jemenorkea, Its got a nice ring to it ..

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) Krungle Mar 19, 2017 5:06 PM

Jews seek destruction, period.

They don't believe in nation states, so they seek to tear them down.

It's their religion.

Jeffersonian Liberal's picture

The chances of the people supporting another war to protect the profits of bankers and financiers who parasite off the fascist Central Banking system that the industrialized nations are currently enslaved to is about zero.

Instead of allowing you parasites to push us into another war, to sacrifice our sons for your profits, we will be far more likely to snipe you motherfuckers from the rooftops.

Giant Meteor's picture

Now here is a comment I can really get behind, and agreed ...

In order to pull that shit off again, I'd say they would need to get even MORE creative, or start marchin everybody to the front lines at gun point ..  Still, even tho the present mojo is a train wreck, in slo mo, cannot underestimate the propensity for evil genius .. when the chips are really down ..

They could simply starve folks into submission .. fight, or go hungry ..