French Elections: Populist Revolution Or Status Quo?

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

  • "If the Macron bubble doesn't pop, this may portend the realignment, not just of French politics, but Western politics in general, away from the left-right division that has defined Western politics since the French Revolution, towards a division between the people and the elites." — Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry, French political analyst.
  • "This divide is no longer between the left and the right, but between patriots and globalists." — Marine Le Pen, French presidential candidate.

The presidential election in France officially got underway on March 18, when the Constitutional Council announced that a total of eleven candidates will be facing off for the country's top political job.

The election is being closely followed in France and elsewhere as an indicator of popular discontent with traditional parties and the European Union, as well as with multiculturalism and continued mass migration from the Muslim world.

The first round of voting will be held on April 23. If no single candidate wins an absolute majority, the top two winners in the first round will compete in a run-off on May 7.

If the election were held today, independent "progressive" candidate Emmanuel Macron, who has never held elected office, would become the next president of France, according to several opinion polls.

A BVA market research poll for Orange released on March 18 showed that Marine Le Pen, the leader of the anti-establishment National Front party, would win the first round with 26% of the votes, followed by Macron with 25%. Conservative François Fillon is third (19.5%), followed by radical Socialist Benoît Hamon (12.5%) and Leftist firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon (12%).

For the first time, the two established parties, the Socialist Party and the center-right Republicans, would be eliminated in the first round.

In the second round, Macron, a 39-year-old pro-EU, pro-Islam globalist (platform here), would defeat Le Pen, a 48-year-old anti-EU, anti-Islam French nationalist (platform here), by a wide margin (62% to 38%), according to the poll.

Macron, a former investment banker, was an adviser to incumbent Socialist President François Hollande, one of the most unpopular presidents in modern French history. A long-time member of the Socialist Party, Macron served in Hollande's cabinet for two years as economy minister until August 2016, when he resigned to launch his rival presidential bid to "transform France."

Macron, whose core base of support consists of young, urban progressives, has tried to position himself in the political center, between the Socialists and the conservatives. His meteoric rise has been propelled by a scandal involving Fillon — who is the subject of a criminal investigation over allegations that he used government money to pay his wife and children more than €1 million ($1.1 million) for jobs they never did — and because the Socialists fielded Hamon, a nonviable candidate who has promised to pay every French citizen over 18, regardless of whether or not they are employed, a government-guaranteed monthly income of €750 ($800). The annual cost to taxpayers would be €400 billion ($430 billion). By comparison, France's 2017 defense budget is €32.7 billion ($40 billion).

Macron's ascendancy comes amid heightened worries over security. More than 230 people have been killed in attacks in France by Islamic radicals during the past two years. The latest attack, on March 18, involved a 39-year-old French-Tunisian jihadist who proclaimed that he wanted to "die for Allah," and was shot dead after he tried to seize a soldier's weapon at Orly Airport in Paris.

Shortly after the attack, Le Pen accused Macron and the rest of France's political establishment of "cowardice in the face of Islamic fundamentalism."

In an apparent effort to bolster his national security credentials, Macron on March 18 announced a surprise proposal to restore compulsory military service. He said he would require men and women between the ages of 18 and 21 to serve one month in the armed forces.

"I want each young French person to be able to experience military life, however brief," Macron said. "This is a major project of society, a real republican project, which should allow our democracy to be more united and the resilience of our society to be increased." Macron, if elected, would become the first president in modern French history not to have performed military service.

Observers say that Macron's national service proposal — which copies Le Pen's proposal to reintroduce compulsory military service for a period of at least three months — is an attempt to siphon votes away from Le Pen and Fillon, both of whose campaign platforms call for a strong national defense.

Macron's proposal, which will require an estimated €15 billion ($16 billion) upfront, and another €3 billion ($3.2 billion) each year to maintain, has been met with derision because of its exorbitant cost and dubious contribution to national security. Le Monde reminded its readers that France spends a similar amount (€3 billion annually) on nuclear deterrence.

Fillon's spokesman, Luc Chantel, said the proposal was "absurd and unrealistic" and added:

"Either it is a measure designed to discourage students from quitting school, and this is not the mission of the army, or it is training for the defense of France, and one month is a joke, it is a discovery camp."

Some of Macron's other policy positions include:

  • European Federalism: Macron has repeatedly called for a stronger European Union. At a January 14 political rally in Lille, he said: "We are Europe, we are Brussels, we wanted it and we need it. We need Europe because Europe makes us bigger, because Europe makes us stronger."

  • Single European Currency: In a January 10 speech at the Humboldt University in Berlin, Macron, speaking impeccable English, said: "The truth is that we must collectively recognize that the euro is incomplete and cannot last without major reforms. It has not provided Europe with full international sovereignty against the dollar on its rules. It has not provided Europe with a natural convergence between the different member states. The euro is a weak Deutsche mark, the status quo is synonymous, in 10 years' time, with the dismantling of the euro."

  • Migration Crisis: Macron has repeatedly praised German Chancellor Angela Merkel's open-door migration policy, which has allowed more than two million mostly Muslim migrants into Germany since January 2015.

    In a January 1, 2017 interview with Süddeutsche Zeitung, Macron accused critics of Merkel's open-door migration policy of "disgraceful oversimplification." He said: "Merkel and German society as a whole exemplified our common European values. They saved our collective dignity by accepting, accommodating and educating distressed refugees."

    In a February 4 rally in Lyon, Macron mocked U.S. President Donald Trump's pledge to build a wall with Mexico: "I do not want to build a wall. I can assure you there is no wall in my program. Can you remember the Maginot Line?" he said, referring to a failed row of fortifications that France built in the 1930s to deter an invasion by Germany.

  • Islamic Terrorism: Macron has said he believes the solution to jihadist terrorism is more European federalism: "Terrorism wants to destroy Europe. We must quickly create a sovereign Europe that is capable of protecting us against external dangers in order to better ensure internal security. We also need to overcome national unwillingness and create a common European intelligence system that will allow the effective hunting of criminals and terrorists."

  • Islam: Macron has said he believes that French security policy has unfairly targeted Muslims and that "secularism should not be brandished to as a weapon to fight Islam." At an October 2016 rally in Montpellier, he rejected President Hollande's assertion that "France has a problem with Islam." Instead, Macron said: "No religion is a problem in France today. If the state should be neutral, which is at the heart of secularism, we have a duty to let everybody practice their religion with dignity." He also insisted that the Islamic State is not Islamic: "What poses a problem is not Islam, but certain behaviors that are said to be religious and then imposed on persons who practice that religion."

  • National Defense: Macron supports NATO, and has pledged to increase French defense spending to reach 2% of GDP by 2025 — a level to which all NATO members agreed in 2006. At the same time, Macron believes in the need to create an "autonomous" European defense capability, also known as a European Army, which would duplicate military capabilities which already exist within NATO.

An Ifop poll for the Journal du Dimanche published on March 18 found that French voters are divided into "two quasi-equal blocks" about Macron's honesty and his ability to govern. According to the survey, only 46% of French people believe he will be "able to guarantee the safety of the French people." More than half (52%) of respondents said they were "worried" about Macron, while 52% said they doubted his honesty.

In an interview with BMFTV, Laurence Haïm, a Canal+ reporter who was accredited to the White House and who recently joined Macron's team, described Macron as the "French Obama." She added: "I think that in today's world we need renewal, from someone young, who is not a politician. He wants to make the democratic revolution."

So what is driving Macron's political ascendancy? French analyst Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry explains:

"The best way to look at Macron is as a kind of anti-Le Pen, or, to stretch the bounds of logic even further, a 'populist from the top.' If Le Pen is anti-establishment, Macron is the incarnation of the French establishment, a graduate of ENA, the top civil service school that trains the country's elites, and a member of the Inspection des Finances, the most elite civil service track. His only experience in the private sector is through the revolving door as an investment banker. And yet, Macron sounds off populist rhetoric: His candidacy, he says, is about sweeping out a corrupt system (even as he is supported by the vast majority of the French establishment).


"It would be only slightly churlish to say that the parts of the system Macron wants to do away with are the democratic ones; witness his full-throated support for the EU in a country that has rejected it at the polls. Macron supports various liberalizing reforms, and Angela Merkel's welcoming policy towards migrants. He is, of course, a social liberal. In a country that takes culture very seriously, he has argued that there is 'no such thing' as French culture; rather, there are many cultures with which the French perform a kind of synthesis. His biggest donors seem to be French tax exiles residing in London and Brussels.


"In other words, he is the mirror image of the political realignment that is transforming Western politics. If the familiar motley crew of populists — Trump, Le Pen — are the candidates for those who lost out from globalization, then Macron is the candidate of the winners. In both cases, they seem to make old left-right divisions obsolete. If the Macron bubble doesn't pop, this may portend the realignment, not just of French politics, but Western politics in general, away from the left-right division that has defined Western politics since the French Revolution, towards a division between the people and the elites.

Le Pen agrees. At a rally in Lyon on February 5, she said:

"The old left-right debates have outlived their usefulness. Primaries have shown that debates about secularism or immigration, as well as globalization or generalized deregulation, constitute a fundamental and transversal divide. This divide is no longer between the left and the right, but between patriots and globalists.


"The collapse of traditional parties and the systematic disappearance of almost all of their leaders shows that a great political re-composition has begun."

At that same rally, Le Pen launched a two-pronged attack on globalization and radical Islam. She also promised French voters a referendum on remaining in the European Union in order "to allow us to recover our four sovereignties: monetary, economic, legislative and territorial."

She went on to articulate exactly what is at stake for France in this election:

In all respects, this presidential election is unlike previous ones. Its outcome will determine the future of France as a free nation and our existence as a people.


After decades of errors and cowardice, we are at a crossroads. I say it with gravity: the choice we will have to make in this election is a choice of civilization.


The question is simple and cruel: will our children live in a free, independent, democratic country? Will they still be able to refer to our system of values? Will they have the same way of life as we did and our parents before us?


Will our children, and the children of our children, still have a job, a decent wage, the possibility of building up a patrimony, becoming an owner, starting a family in a safe environment, being properly cared for, to grow old with dignity?


Will our children have the same rights as us?


Will they live according to our cultural references, our values ??of civilization, our style of living, and will they even speak our French language, which is disintegrating under the blows of political leaders who squander this national treasure — for example, by choosing a slogan in English to promote the candidacy of Paris to host the 2024 Olympic Games?


Will they have the right to claim French culture when certain candidates for the presidential election, puffed up by their own empty-headedness, explain that it does not exist?


I ask this important question because, unlike our adversaries, I am interested not only in the material heritage of the French, but I also want to defend our immaterial capital. This immaterial capital is priceless because this heritage is irreplaceable. In fact, I am defending the load-bearing walls of our society.

The choice for French voters is clear: Le Pen is the anti-establishment change candidate and Macron is the pro-establishment status quo candidate.

In the current French presidential election campaign, Marin Le Pen (right) is the anti-establishment change candidate and Emmanuel Macron (left) is the pro-establishment status quo candidate. (Image source: LCI video screenshot)

Le Pen is offering voters an historic opportunity to reassess relations with the European Union, reassert national sovereignty and stanch the flow of mass migration from the Muslim world. By contrast, Macron is offering voters increased European federalism, the transference of yet more national sovereignty to the European Union, and the further multiculturalization of French society.

If polls are any indication, French voters appear to be more comfortable with the status quo. The populist revolution that began in June 2016 when British voters decided to leave the European Union, and cross the Atlantic in November when Americans elected U.S. President Donald J. Trump, will not be spreading to France in 2017.

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Fireman's picture

Le Pen, last chance for Europeons to stiff the Pedophile Politburo in Brussels sewer, Natostan seat of the evil EUSSR. Europeons have always looked to the French to lead the way in head chopping the aristocracy and this time won't be any different.


Roll out Madame Le Guillotine, the peasants are ready for blood!

Mimir's picture

"Pedophile Politburo, Brussels sewer, Natostan, evil EUSSR"

Where the heck do you find such nonsense ? Daily Mail ?

 Grow up and come back with something more serious.

Fireman's picture

Are you retarded as well as everything else?

xythras's picture
xythras (not verified) Fireman Mar 22, 2017 4:30 AM
blue fin's picture
blue fin (not verified) xythras Mar 22, 2017 4:32 AM

The French will be toast. French toast.


ares_xtreme's picture

Vive Le Pen.

Au Nom du People !!!


cue in cue's picture
cue in cue (not verified) tuetenueggel Mar 22, 2017 6:54 AM

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do...

Pliskin's picture

SPAM, pushing his shitty website on every post, then logging in under one of his many accounts to upvote himself.

Please ignore, when he first came here I foolishly visited his website, it's full of adware, malware and trojans.  Had to rebuild my P.C. to get rid of it all.

Just a warning to other REAL ZHers.

You've been warned!

Mimir's picture

Your remark is meaningless; but obviously, what would you know ? 

ArtificalDuality's picture

Time to take the blinders off all you comatists; Take look here and be shocked:

Mimir's picture

"Comatists" is that another invention of some fuckhead living in a hole in the ground ? 

Your link just tells everything which is needed to laugh of you. Don't ask me to take it seriously. It is a game for adolescents killing boredom of life.

Come back to civilization and share a couple of beers with some humans around.

tuetenueggel's picture

its you. or assholes like you.

ArtificalDuality's picture

Oh look at the agent attempting to 1) demarginalize information and 2) tell others to stick heads back into the sand. Yeah you show yourself already.

tuetenueggel's picture

To behead 55000 useles, lazy, criminal Brussels EU-officials who steel taxpayer´s money since 15 years, guillotines are not the way. That would take far to long.

ebworthen's picture

Did France revolt against the Monarchy for the liberty of the people, or to be Serfs to a rabble of Fascist banker bureaucrats who have replaced the French nobility - minus the commitment to France and every other culture in Europe?

From across the pond it is clear as can be that Europe is being conquered by a rabble of bankster and self-esteem chasing rabid globalists that believe that character, culture, and nation mean nothing and that money and power over The People are "King".

How odd that Europe rejects nobility - then bows to narcissism, idolatry, and greed in the hands of the few.

As in the U.S.A. - a tragedy for those who love liberty and independence.

Roll the guillotines and hang 'em high!

LA_Goldbug's picture

My reading of their revolution is that the People had no clue what they were REALLY a part of.

FR is a different version of the EU Project today. It sounds glorious in the beginning until suddenly you see them opening all of the gates in the spirit of Brotherly Love and your own demise.

keep the bastards honest's picture

Marine is amazing. France is so  lucky to have the chance to vote for her. So good.

tuetenueggel's picture

If they use this chance, the´ll be lucky. I doubt that they will.

tuetenueggel's picture

Hitler had seen that very clear since 1917. The way, he wanted to end that was terribly wrong. The idea was self propelling and will. Look at the Swedish example and the German one. If one has read Mao Tse Dung´s biography, he can see clearly what is happening and why.

If you allow politicians to do their dirty job, they´ll kill you. Either by taxation or by war.

Mimir's picture
"Populist Revolution Or Status Quo?"

Non of it. Democratic change is the only option on the table. Macron will win "bigly".

Snípéir_Ag_Obair's picture

Fuck ZioJew-led Gatestone.

Jews are front and center in demanding open borders in every White country. This is inarguable.

And France is saddled with their own version of aipac

part of the Zionist Empire's global conspiracy:

Zionists- that is organized, transnational, supremacist, Israel Firster Jewry is a far bigger threat to the west than radical islam, particularly once you subtract out the Islamopsychos organized and funded by the US, UK, and Israel.

ZD1's picture

^^^ Paid for by his Islamist master

ArtificalDuality's picture

It's not an issue of France, or the US, or the UK... It's a global issue. This is who is the Prime Enemy to the global population and Macron is one of those demon servants:

LA_Goldbug's picture

" towards a division between the people and the elites."

This will only get worst. The so called 0.01% elites could careless IMHO as they are driving the events on the ground no matter the consequence to the populace. If the populace resists they will bring out the Police State which is corrupt through and through and only follows orders.

keep the bastards honest's picture

Wish Chris Dakota would have a look at Marine's Chart. 

The Cardinal Cross astrologically... none 3000 years aback and none 3000 years ahead brings up  all we have gone thu in the last 10 years, its very powerfull, the people against the elites, the uncovering of the hidden, the tearing apart of corruption. It operates at group, nations, and overlays like financial sector, pedophillia, religion.  

Anatoly Fomensky books are  on Amazon, uncovers the lies of history, fake religions, much just writtten in the middle ages. Hundreds of  scientists etc working with him. Jesus? 1100's..perfect dating by the only occurrence in 2000 years of the  eclipse and such.. Pompei: the household, items were medieval..there are complete lies  re the religions and re history.

tuetenueggel's picture

But they still need the workers to pay taxes. French are used in general strikes, which are forbidden by NAZI-law in Germany.

Peter K's picture

MLP's problem is that too many Frenchmen have their fingers in the EU pie.

And that spells death for v republique...

ManTheMan's picture

too many Frenchmen have their fingers in the EU pie


including MPL herself : she was demanded to refund 300k euros to the EU based on the accusation of her paying FN staff for tasks that had nothing to do with EU matters. She has refused to do so until now. For an anti-EU icone, EU money sure feels good.

SQP's picture

Another interresting poll, from public TV : 67% said Macron is a "leurre", which can be translated as delusion, decoy, lure or bait.

Yet, he's the only subject of the lugenpresse.

Vigilante's picture

The Left-leaning parties are 54% of the vote.

Not one of their supporters will vote for LePen (in the second round)

That means she has to keep her own and take ALL the remaining conservative votes from the  Right to have a chance (plus a small % from the Left)

Not gonna happen

Unless the polls are fake of course.


ManTheMan's picture

I have not seen the entire debate but one thing striked me: LePen and Macron were after each other's throats, as if the other candidates did not really matter. I think that what we saw was a well prepared show that targeted the viewers to convince them that the circus is all about Macron and LePen. And the official polls are contributing to this bias. The fact that there are 11 candidates and only 5 invited to this debate (the most mediatic and vocal ones) clearly reveals the psychological manipulation. 

tuetenueggel's picture

wrong. This election is only between left shit (Macron/Rothschild) sandniggers or nationalism.(Marine le Pen)

Mimir's picture

Macron a left wing politician !!!! You are out of your mind.

Seen from Texas, maybe. Seen in the context of European politics, he is a neo-liberal politician situated somewhere around the centre-right. 

ManTheMan's picture

wrong. This election is only between GLOBALIST shit or PROTECTIONISM.

WTFUD's picture

I had a French friend once, ok so he was an imaginary friend but when you're friendless, you take what you can get! Last chance saloon for France to vote out the Treasonist Scum. Problem is the only folks in France with the balls for the job are the farmers, who are probably on too good an EU pacifying subsidy.

tuetenueggel's picture

Maybe you´ll be wrong ? French are fed up with this left shit. Their country also is tolen by this left garbadge sandniggers in streets.

Mimir's picture

Really ? There are as mainy supporters of the French left and extreme-left/communists as there are supporters of the extreme right of Marine Le Pen.

The centre left/right has the majority.

The question of farmers is central not because the number of farmers is high but because French people still keep a close affinity to small villages and farmers. There is a great solidarity to farmers in France. Farmers will always be supported in France, whether it is mainly through a European common agricultural policy and funds, as now, or by national funds mainly.

Last of the Middle Class's picture

And you thought Facebook was free!!!!! Bwwwwaaaaaaaa

tuetenueggel's picture

everybody to need faceshit or shitter also needs religion.

Scarifyces to PI$$LAM. Earlier or later.


BritBob's picture

Le Pen wants to follow the UK out of the EU.  The EU would then fold like a pack of cards.

Re Briexit -

The UK will opt for a hard Brexit especially when one country (or part of a country in Belgium) can stall negotiations for so long. Spain could act in a similar fashion over Gibraltar and has the cheek to maintain its Gibraltar sovereignty claim. Claim?

Gibraltar - Some Relevant International Law:

So it looks like a quick hasta luego !


WTFUD's picture

Bob you appear overly concerned about the status of Gibraltar and some far off Argentinian Island than the merde going down in the UK. This Island's crumbling and on life-support. Get your priorities right man!

tuetenueggel's picture

Britain simply can say fuck EU and finish all treason from Brussels by a single word.

Fuck you. We´ll do our own business.

But they won´t because they are whineries too.

Mimir's picture

Maybe they won't, because they are significantly smarter than you.

Mimir's picture

The EU has since last June invited the UK to announce its intention to leave the EU, by triggering Article 50 of the Treaty. Finally it seems to happen by the end of this month, which means that the UK (minus Scotland ?) will be out of the Union two years later (if no prolongation of negotiations is agreed upon).

The EU will finally get rid of a reluctant member.

You might be right, that if the UK doesn't fold, it will be out of the Union without agreement and the rest of the drama will happen in the International Court of Justice in Den Hague.

There will be no access to the Internal Market without the acceptance of the freedom of movements of EU citizens (together with three other "freedoms") and there will be no agreement unless the UK respects it financial engagements made before leaving. A simple message from the EU. The rest is up to the British Government - together with the Houses of Parliament and the British people if they are asked .....


the_linguist's picture

I'm from Denmark and the French election will affect us also in the long Let's translate the news for Europeans to read:

Mimir's picture

Your "Leakslate" seems mainly to be just another copy paste of Conservatetribune, Breitbart, Infowars and even ZH. 

Sure, the French presidential election will have influence on also Denmark, as both countries are members of the EU.

tuetenueggel's picture

The Denish will be treated like the Swedish:

When you reach one finger to the devil, he takes your hand.

Sandniggers are mostly criminals, lazy and turds.

Jubal Early's picture

Lets face it, the jews are straddling France and have stuck their knife deep into her throat.  Marie le Pen refuses to name them and instead says "wehave to ban knives".  France is headed for civil war, and the christians there are head towards dhimmi status and ultimately will be mulatto slaves to the world government in Jerusalem.

Martian Moon's picture

Never ... go full retard

Marine's strongest demographic is precisely French Jews, every single French Jew I have spoken to is voting for Marine