Doug Casey Has "Never Seen Anything Like This"

Tyler Durden's picture

Via InternationalMan.com,

Nick Giambruno: Doug, what do you think is the root problem of the US economy and financial system?

Doug Casey: There are several, including incompetence, corruption and, of course, just plain stupidity. But there's not much you can do about those things; they're intrinsic to government. But perhaps something can be done about ignorance, which starts in school: What, for instance, do most people learn about economics and finance? Very little. As Mark Twain said, "It's not what people know that's the problem, it's what they think they know that just ain't so."

All of the economics that's taught in the schools—what little that is taught—is completely backward. Plus, almost everything you hear on television is conventional, unsound, and wrong.

I'd like to believe anybody that's reading this right now that has at least heard of the "Austrian school of economics," understands the value of gold, and knows a bit of basic economic theory and history. Without at least some fundamentals, people stand to suffer a huge drop in their standard of living if the economy goes sideways.

When the current financial crisis started, in 2007, it was the leading edge of the huge financial hurricane that hit in earnest in 2008 and 2009. Now we're in the eye of this hurricane, but we're going into the trailing edge of the storm, and it's going to be much worse and much different than what happened in '08 and '09. Or, for that matter, in the 1930s. So hold onto your hat.

Nick Giambruno: Can President Trump fix this mess?

Doug Casey: Everybody is talking about Donald Trump. He's a complex individual. I actually made money bets that he would win the election. But that’s not the only reason I’m glad he won.

Is Trump a good thing or a bad thing? They say, "Oh he's a racist." "Oh he's a sexist." "Oh he's a homophobe." "Oh he hates Muslims." Frankly we should analyze those things, but I think they're basically all lies. In fact, he's just a businessman, flying by the seat of his pants. He doesn't have a core philosophy.

What's going on in the US now is a culture clash. The people that live in the so-called "red counties" that voted for Trump—which is the vast majority of the geographical area of the US, flyover country—are aligned against the people that live in the blue counties, the coasts and big cities.

They don't just dislike each other and disagree on politics; they can no longer even have a conversation. They hate each other on a visceral gut level. They have totally different world views. It's a culture clash.

I've never seen anything like this in my lifetime. There hasn't been anything like this since the War Between the States, which shouldn't be called "The Civil War," because it wasn't a civil war. A civil war is where two groups try to take over the same government. It was a war of secession, where one group simply tries to leave.

We might have something like that again, hopefully nonviolent this time. I don't think the US should any longer remain as one political entity. It should break up so that people with one cultural view can join that group and the others join other groups. National unity is an anachronism.

Nick Giambruno: What would that look like?

Doug Casey: Well look, my ideal situation politically is this… right now the world is divided into about 220 different nation states, different countries. That's a very bad idea, because almost all of these nation states are trying to weld together people of different views, philosophies, languages, religions, ethnicities, and races, and it doesn’t work.

This is a major reason why Africa—which I'm pretty familiar with—just hasn't gone anywhere. Every one of those countries, as well as every one of the countries in the Mid-East, Central Asia, and I'll include India, they're not real countries. They were put together arbitrarily in the boardrooms of Europe in the 19th century, and they have no internal consistency. So different groups in those countries try to take over the government so they can use it to steal.

Instead of 220 nation states we should ideally have about seven billion. Everybody should be a sovereign individual.

Nick Giambruno: What does Trump mean for the stock market?

Doug Casey: Trump is associated with the free market, even though he understands nothing about economics. He's not really a free market guy, he's an authoritarian, not a libertarian. And he has some disastrous economic ideas—like putting up import barriers and replacing Obamacare. He's trying to run the country as if it were his privately owned company.

He also has some good economic ideas. Cutting regulations, wonderful, and he's doing it. Cutting taxes, fantastic. This is very good.

But he appears to want a weak dollar: What he's really doing is destroying American savings and making imported goods more expensive. This is horrible. I mean this could actually be the straw that breaks the camel's back. A Smoot-Hawley tariff lookalike.

I applaud the fact he also despises Progressives, Cultural Marxists, Social Justice Warriors, the media, academics, and the like. But, again, he's no libertarian.

Nick Giambruno: Where do you think the stock market is headed?

Doug Casey: Well, anything is possible. I really believe that. So will the Dow go to 40,000? Yeah, it's possible, but it's highly unlikely.

I wrote Strategic Investing back in 1982. At the bottom of the bond market, when rates were 15%. When the Dow was under 1,000. I wrote, "The Dow's going to 3,000," and everybody said, "You're completely insane, that's a triple of the Dow." Well it went to 3,000, and then it went to over 20,000 over the next generation.

All I can say about the stock market is, by any traditional parameters of value—price-earnings ratio, price-to-book ratio, dividend yields—it's now very overpriced. And bonds aren't just in a bubble. They're in a hyperbubble.

The economy itself is head-over-heels in debt. What does "debt" mean? It means that some people borrowed money and owe it to other people who are going to want it back. When you borrow money two things usually happen. First, you're taking capital that others saved in the past, and are probably using for consumption, not to create more wealth. And second, you're mortgaging your future, which makes you a serf when you have to pay it back. All that debt is a ticking bomb.

So my feeling is the economy can collapse, and with it earnings on the stock market, and with it prices of stocks. So I want no part of the stock market right now.

Nick Giambruno: What do you want to buy right now?

Doug Casey: You want to buy when things are cheap; very little is cheap. People don't have a sense of history—they don't realize how cheap things can get. I mean, the Dow Jones in the past, at times its yield has been 6%, 8%, 10%. At the bottom of the last depression, after dividends were cut significantly, it yielded 13%.

I watch a lot of international stock markets. I remember in the mid-1980s, three stock markets—Hong Kong, Belgium, and Spain—the indices were all yielding 12% to 15% in current dividends. They were selling for two times earnings and half of book value. Now that's when you buy stocks. You don't buy them at the nosebleed levels where they are right now.

Nick Giambruno: Switching gears to the War on Cash. Why are governments working to phase out cash?

Doug Casey: It's all the governments of the world. This is not just happening in India, which is basically a primitive country where half the people still live on a dollar or two a day—as unbelievable as that sounds. But in advanced countries, in Europe, especially Sweden and Finland, even in backward Uruguay they're trying to get rid of cash.

They say, "Well, drug dealers use cash. Criminals use cash." Yes, of course, and free men use cash, because money equals freedom. Money equals all the things you want to have for yourself and provide for other people. You don’t want the State in control of your money.

They say, "Well, that's okay, you just have to cycle money through your bank account." But when money has to go through your bank account, then that's the only way that you can buy or sell anything. The government controls your bank account. If you become politically unpopular, for whatever reason, they can shut off your bank account. And they know exactly what you’re doing, what you have, and what you like.

The thing is, without cash you're completely under the control of your rulers, and that is not acceptable to a free man. These people aren’t angels. In fact, you don’t get the best people in government—you get some of the worst people.

Look, we shouldn't be using the dollar to start with. It used to be the dollar was just a name for a certain amount of gold, 1/20th of an ounce. Then people forgot that the dollar represented something. Now the dollar is just a floating abstraction.

It's an insane idea. It's a criminal idea. It's anti-human.

But the average person who's got a smartphone thinks, "Oh that would be convenient. I won't have to worry so much about somebody sticking me up for the dollars in my wallet." But even that's wrong; phones are stolen, and accounts are hacked. There are zero advantages to a cashless society—except to the State.

Nick Giambruno: What are your thoughts on bitcoin?

Doug Casey: I'm of two minds about bitcoin. Aristotle in the Fourth Century B.C. gave the five characteristics of anything that can be used as good, reliable money.

It has to be durable, which is why we don't use wheat as money.

It has to be divisible, which is why we don’t use artwork as money. You can't divide the Mona Lisa into pieces.

It has to be convenient, which is why we don't use lead as money. It takes too much to be of value.

It has to be consistent, which is why we don’t use real estate as money. Every piece is different from every other.

Last, it has to have value in and of itself, which is why we shouldn't use paper as money.

So the problem with bitcoin is that its only value, as far as I can determine, is as a transfer mechanism. If you want to send money to somebody on the other side of the world right now you've got to go through the SWIFT system in your banks. It's expensive. It's inconvenient. It's not private.

But with bitcoin—assuming that the person on the other side of the world can find somebody that wants to accept bitcoin—you can do it instantly and for no cost. That's the value of bitcoin. It's a great transfer mechanism.

If the dollar starts losing value at 15%, 20%, 25% per year—which is entirely possible over the next few years—people might go to these cryptocurrencies just to get out of dollars. The government can't easily control them, they're limited in amount, and there will be more confidence in them.

Right now they're interesting speculative vehicles for capital gains, not just bitcoins, but some of these new ones that have different characteristics, as well. They're like buying penny stocks, interesting. A speculative bubble could easily develop in them.

Nick Giambruno: Why do economists spend so much time trying to decipher what the Fed will do next?

Doug Casey: Well there's a whole class of talking heads that make a living out of predicting what the Fed is going to do. It's absurd.

Let me say something radical: The Fed has no right to exist. It serves no useful purpose. It should be abolished. It's worse than unnecessary. The Federal Reserve is destructive.

So I don't try to second-guess what these idiots are going to do. But the last thing that they should be doing—nothing they do is good—is controlling interest rates. That's for the market to control. Setting the price of money is as stupid as the government trying to set the price of candy bars in a store. It's equally ridiculous, but much more destructive.

Nick Giambruno: What do you think is going to happen to the US dollar?

Doug Casey: This is very important. When you work and produce you're paid in dollars, and if you want to get ahead in life you save those dollars. The problem is, after you've saved dollars—what happens if those dollars lose value overnight? Everything you've worked and planned for vanishes with the dollars. This has happened numerous times in other countries with other currencies.

The problem with the dollar is it's the unsecured liability of the US government, which is bankrupt. In the years to come that's going to become very obvious, with catastrophic consequences for the average American.

How can you get ahead in the world when you have to save a depreciating asset? That's why in these third world countries the average guy keeps falling further and further behind, because all he can save is the local currency, and the currency consistently turns into toilet paper, so he's always behind the eight ball.

The same is going to happen in the US on a much grander scale. It's going to be much more serious, because even in all these countries smarter people try to save dollars, they don't save pesos or kwacha or ringgit, they don't save these horrible currencies. They try to get hold of US dollars. When the dollar is devastated, they're going to blame Americans for their currency losing value. This has all kinds of bad consequences.

The dollar is going to cease being the world's reserve currency sometime in the next decade; I'm confident of that. The Chinese are making a lot of progress with the yuan. The euro, however, is going to cease to exist. The European Union is going to break up. Europe has all kinds of problems.

Now that's the bad news, but the good news is that during a time of financial chaos most of the real wealth in the world will still exist. It's just going to change ownership. You want to be one of the people on the winning side of that equation.

*  *  *

Widespread economic chaos is coming. But you don't need to fear it. Doug Casey and his team recently released this time-sensitive video with all the details. Click here to watch it now.

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aloha_snakbar's picture

What is coming will make the first civil war look like two Ritalin infused soccer moms fighting over a parking spot in front of Starbucks....

Delving Eye's picture

Somebody check the sewers for a river of pink slime.

J S Bach's picture

He's right about the hatred on a visceral gut level.  I have to admit that I feel an innate hatred for ANYONE who could pull the lever for the witch, not because she's a democrat, liberal, feminist, etc...  No.  It is because she is a murderess, criminal and traitor.  There is no doubt about this at all.  And for ANYONE to overlook the guilt of this creature and then do their part to put her in the highest elected office in the world... that person is deserving of visceral hatred and worse.

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) J S Bach Mar 22, 2017 10:17 PM

It's because, Doug Casey, there has never been a time like this.

This is a special time, not seen in the recorded past or the foreseeable future.

This is the great awakening. I have spent my life trying to wake people up, even perfect strangers.

It's working, the internet helped us wakers to band together, share knowledge, real genuine history and apply to the now.

Amazing things are coming due to this effort.

A new world is being formed a world where the common man takes part in forming a better world, and running it.

07564111's picture

A new world is being formed a world where the common man takes part in forming a better world, and running it.

Blood will flow before that happens.

El Vaquero's picture

Too many people have been promised too much shit that they're not going to get.  Blood is going to flow.  

HopefulCynical's picture

No reason for surprise. We have Marxists - and humans. Utterly incompatible.

Mr. Universe's picture

For all the pitiful snowflakes that have been indoctrinated, I feel sadness for them, not so much hate. There is indeed more hatred coming to the surface than can be tolerated. It seems mostly to be coming from one side, but the other isn't going to take it much longer. You look back at the last 8 years and can say with some sense of assurance, yes they were purposefully trying to piss off half of the population with this "Hope and Change" agenda. Now that someone is trying to bring things back to "reasonable" those who have been promised the Golden Calf are not going to take not getting it lying down. 

It has been speculated that man has risen and fallen several times over the course of Earth's history. Beats me, I wasn't there, but I'm here, now. Is this our last stand? Hard to say and I'm not going to worry about it too much. It does appear from all observances that we are indeed at a turning point. The Internet has been the big surprise as they have yet to find a completely effective way to shut down the flow of information. Sure they jammed it up with porn and tons of misinformation, yet you can't stop the signal, and it is killing them.

cue in cue's picture
cue in cue (not verified) Mr. Universe Mar 23, 2017 2:38 AM

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... http://bit.ly/2jdTzrM

brianshell's picture

Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me.

Communism eventually fails of its own accord. Of course a few billion people may die in the process.

Manthong's picture

“There hasn't been anything like this since the War Between the States, which shouldn't be called "The Civil War," because it wasn't a civil war. A civil war is where two groups try to take over the same government. It was a war of secession, where one group simply tries to leave.” 

 

..great observation.

 

And.. when Lincoln issued the "Emancipation Proclamation” Executive Order to free the slaves, how many of the “United” states and territories were affected?

 

We were all so misguided and mis-educated.

 

c0nan's picture

If blood flows, let's make sure it's the right blood. Who opened the boarders: http://www.truthjustice.net/politics/who-opened-the-borders/

Not Too Important's picture

No new world is being formed. Fukushima is slowly eliminating all sentient life in Japan and North America, and picking up speed. It is only a matter of time before we have more old and poorly constructed/maintained NPP's fail to atmosphere, adding to the base load of released NPP radiation. It is melting our DNA as I type this.

By 2035 all the children will be sick and autistic - 1 in 2 by 2022 or so. They aren't going to be able to maintain shit, let alone whatever NPP's are still standing.

The radiation is spreading from the Northern Hemispher to the Southern. There is already plenty of released nuclear fuel from Japan to kill off the entire human race hundreds of thousands times over. Every new NPP failure will simply add to that.

This is it. It's over. Millions of years of 'evolution', and it'll all be gone in 200 years or so.

I like your work, Chris, but the stars aren't giving you the nuclear math. Any 'new world' being formed will be on another plane, one with no physicality.

Satan-worshipping kiddie fuckers allowed scientific psychopaths to develop nuclear power, and less than 80 years later it has begun the process of killing off all life on this planet.

'There's no fixing fucked.'

 

 

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) Not Too Important Mar 22, 2017 11:30 PM

I am a prayer monkey.

I pray hours per day, i am attempting to have a personal relationship with God.

When I pray for others or give thanks for their gifts a wind blows over my face, even inside a building.

I have Pluto 12th square to Sun 9th, this is where you connect with God outside of a church building.

I have also the finger of God aspect which is minutes of angular MC/IC conjuct chart ruler and 4th Moon conjunct IC.

Man I don't belong to this world and I knew that in childhood. I used to think my parents were foreigners.

Watch the magic of God.

"I used to live alone before I knew ya"

This is true. I always knew him from childhood, he is the end all and be all. He does guide me, he does respond to my prayers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X96j5Oeuee8

TheEndIsNear's picture

What's an NPP? Wikipedia doesn't give me a clue.

Scuba Steve's picture

I'm going out on a limb ... Nuclear Power Plant?

Jubal Early's picture

"has begun the process of killing off all life on this planet."

You are even more pessimistic than me.  I like it.  

Even if you are wrong there is an incredible shitstorm approaching.  I fear for my children and grandchildren far more than for myself.

The Grim Teacher's picture

It already did once before. See Russia crica 1917 up to 1991, a glorious "revolution" where the bolsheviks created a communist paradise where the common man took part in forming a better world......  If Dante's 7th circle of hell is what was mean by "paradise" then I think they hit the mark.

Manthong's picture

ask the spirit of Jacob Shiff..

who is certainly in Hell now.

SoDamnMad's picture

A whole lot of Americans bled to make America good.  Think about the Battle of Trenton. How many Americans would have to balls to cross a frozen river in boats, march through most of the night to fight the professional Hessian mercenaries? Look at gallantry through the ages.  We have gone soft. Very soft.

Manthong's picture

“Hessians” ….. Interesting

So how many “contractors” are there to US military nowadays?

Who is the enemy?

urhotdogs's picture

Read the book "George Washington, The Crossing".  Brought tears to my eyes.  Amazing feat that changed the course of the 8 yr struggle.

 

Oldwood's picture

Conservatives have been trying to have a conversation for many years, and they are continually disparaged and shut down. we have tried debate, we have tried everything including capitulation, and NOTHING has worked. It would take an idiot to not see that socially our nation has moved substantially to the left in the last twenty years, and now anyone who holds values dating back five years are now considered EXTREMISTS, racists, bigots, homophobes. They are SILENCED. If you want a fight then just attempt to silence people. The hatred we have for progressives is NOT irrational...it is EARNED. They have slapped in the face at every turn. They are on par with radical Islamists in intolerance and the belief that each compromise of their opposition is proof of our weakness, causing them to push even harder. I have NO respect for these people other than for the harm they can directly impose upon me. This will not stand for long.

El Vaquero's picture

They really don't know what kind of fight they're picking.  I'll say that.  

HopefulCynical's picture

Conservatives have been trying to have a conversation for many years, and they are continually disparaged and shut down.

Alinsky 101. They're on the long march.

Little do they know, we will do things I cannot say in public before we bow to them. We do not WANT to do these things - but listen up, motherfuckers, we WILL do them.

They really don't know what kind of fight they're picking.  I'll say that.

True dat. They've been taught, all their lives, that thy are superior in every conceivable way. Oh, the surprise in their eyes, when they find out the hard way how very, very fucking badly they've been lied to...

El Vaquero's picture

They're willing to use violence, but they lack an understanding of its proper application, as well as not understanding the potential conseqences of using it.  We understand its proper application and its consequences.  The latter is why we haven't responded in earnest yet.  

HopefulCynical's picture

Well that, and the fact that when we finally do act, it will be action of the scorched earth variety.

We're giving them every chance to back down and be reasonable, so that there's no room for whining after the fact.

Oh, and I should add this:

They are on par with radical Islamists in intolerance and the belief that each compromise of their opposition is proof of our weakness, causing them to push even harder.

Not an accident.

Jubal Early's picture

I love the discussion, but I think it is too late.  The majority of Americans and Europeans have been deliberately made fat, dumb and lazy.  It was part of the plan which not only included cultural desctruction but also demographic.  The boomers will be far to busy fighting over the last scraps of the pension system to rise up and punish those who have impoverished them.  The millenials will be fighting the boomers to prevent the ongoing theft through oppressive taxation

BabaLooey's picture

Dougie Dougie Dougie.....

Thanks for your take.......sorta.

Not really.

 

Mountainview's picture

The problem is this story is going on since 30 years and the can is still kicked down the road...

Chris Dakota's picture
Chris Dakota (not verified) J S Bach Mar 22, 2017 10:18 PM

they are waking up too

shamus001's picture

Your right Bach, But in truth, Civil wars are called that because civillians participat in them - and this is whats brewing here at home.  Civillians with a desire to turn this country into a foreign controlled socialist country are clashing with patriots- on this note, I think you will find many picking up the sword to defend their views.

DirkDiggler11's picture

For fucks sake, I thought Tyler had finally abandoned the dumb ass Doug Kasey. If you want to learn how piss away your life savings in a third world shithole then just listen to Dougie Fresh and the buy my fucking newsletter band.

Can we get Doug and Simeon Black in a game of Russian Roulette? I'll gladly donate 6 bullets... Jim Rogers and Marc Faber, you're on deck...buck up there Deer Hunters...

new game's picture

luvin it, for fucks sake of it all. news flash, if this shtf, we all be fuked. many will perish and some will survive. maybe the news letter will help get a fire going to cook some vittles...

yogibear's picture

Doug Casey has always been on the fringe. Eventually he'll be right, altough it may take a while.

SheHunter's picture

Chill.  Don't read him if you hate him.  You are the only one who aims your eyes.

Synoia's picture

Instead of 220 nation states we should ideally have about seven billion. Everybody should be a sovereign individual

 

And the rule of law means what? Nothing?

 

If so explain how dispute resololution would not always become violent (Hatfirld vs McCoy Violent).

Chupacabra-322's picture

@ Synoia

"And the rule of law means Nothing?

No, it doesn't. I've been harping all week on my posts that the Criminal Fraud UNITED STATES, CORP. INC. is absolutely, completely, Open in your face Lawless.

UmbilicalMosqueSweeper's picture

You betcha! Read, The "Great Mystery Solved," on rense.com

Billy the Poet's picture

If so explain how dispute resololution would not always become violent (Hatfirld vs McCoy Violent).

The seven billion people on the planet engage in millions of disputes everyday and the vast majority of them don't resort to violence in an attempt to settle their differences. You had to reach back over a hundred years for a historic example with sufficient drama to try to sell your point.

Scuba Steve's picture

You type that living in a comfortable life I suppose ...

 

Billy the Poet's picture

Did you type that with any point in mind or are you simply rambling?

Jubal Early's picture

Its called a "monopoly on violence" and we don't have it.  Many times I have dealt with people who deserved some kind of physical retribution from me and other people.  But they hide behind the injustice of the system and use its monopoly on violence to prevent anyone from taking action.  And it works, so they do it over and over again.  The vast majority of lawyers fill this bill.

My brother spent $60k defending himself from a "handicapped" parasite vulture and his lawyer who sued him because his handycapped parking was slightly to narrow.  They were trying to extort him for $5k and he looked into them and determined that he was just another mark in a long chain of victims.

In a just world my brother would have been justified in punching the jerk in the face the moment he started complaining. 

Teja's picture

I remember reading a made-up story of such a case when I was young. It started with tree leaves on the wrong side of the fence, and it endet with the use of nuclear arms. In the real world, there are some conflicts in rural Albania where the state has not much control. Those conflicts, eg over a donkey, might mean the grandchildren of the perpetrator would risk their lives if they were seen unprotected outside the house.

Monopoly on violence has some advantages.

But the US should think about reforming the legal system, I would add.

Volkodav's picture

          no...did'nt "have to" ...fact is Casey used one of fair example..

          there are great many ugly terrible historical examples since in real

          your last sentence nit pciky against reality

 

 

DrLucindaX's picture

Not to mention, under what leadership exactly? This sounds like one-world government in different wig. 

jmack's picture

you think you live under the rule of law?  pull your head out.

Teja's picture

The seven billion makes a point, but is of course nonsense. But look up Leopold Kohr (an Austrian...), he suggested a "breakdown of nations", in a way that you get smaller states with only some million citizens each. No great imperial states like US or China. Splitting an ethnic group, which usually defines a nation, into several small nations makes sure it is easy to emigrate to a nation where the economic and or political model is more to your taste. And for small ethnic groups, you at least are ruled by people of your own, not by a dominating group. 

As a dyed-in-the-wool Kohrist, I would support Dougs idea of (hopefully as peaceful as possible) splitting up the US, best in more than 2 parts. Actually, it is the only chance, as you have forgotten how to talk to each other, split by an uncompromising majority voting system. The problem is only the city-rural divide, which cannot be resolved by any separation of states.

Kohr, by the way, explains also why the current E.U. is not stable (although he died before the EU was born). He has no general problem with an alliance of states, a federation with limited rights. But such a federation needs to be composed of members of equal strength. That is clearly not the case in the EU. The only way to resolve this would be to raise the various regions, lander, provinces of the larger nations to the level of EU members in their own right. Scotland and Catalonia are actually on the right track here.

max2205's picture

Blah blah....go trump!