Despite Soaring Rates, US Home Prices Accelerate At Fastest Pace In 3 Years

Tyler Durden's picture

US Home Prices rose at 5.7% year-over-year in January, according to the latest data from Case-Shiller. This is the fastest rate of price appreciation since July 2014.

The six-month lagged response to the surge in mortgage rates suggests things may be about to slow down dramatically though...


Las Vegas, Seattle, and San Diego led the monthly gains while Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Detroit saw a slowdown.

Most notably, San Francisco saw the biggest price drop in a year.

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JRobby's picture

Now here are some solid numbers we can depend on!  BULLISH!!!!

NugginFuts's picture

I am going to BUY ALL THE THINGS when the market opens today.


buzzsaw99's picture

the "market" is only down (-0.11%). i advise you to wait until it is fully (-0.12%) to btfd.

Ramesees's picture

Desireable locations are still seller's markets.  That's just the state of things today.  Lots of construction going on in these locations, too.  I don't know why you'd distrust the Case-Shiller as it's a large-scale index based on actual recorded property sales. 

Maybe we have another 2008 event in 6 months that throws all this in the crapper, but denying reality until then doesn't do you any good.

Houses Depreciate's picture

It's an index, not transactional data. 

Prices began heading down over a year ago.

FireBrander's picture

"Soaring Rates"?


I track those rates...they are steady/falling and they are currently lower than they were 6 years ago...

4.28% for the 30y fixed at Wells Fargo..that is not, has not, "soared".

Now figure in the cost of rent...wholly fuck...if you don't plan to move within 5 years, you need to buy a place to live. That's the mentality anyway...yeah, it's a bubble; lot's will be underwater AGAIN!

Ben A Drill's picture

Cities need them taxes higher. Same as it ever was.

canisdirus's picture

It depends on where you are. In the ones they listed as rapidly rising (offsetting all other markets), it's a very bad time to buy. They're way beyond even the highs of the last bubble now in unaffordability.

Houses Depreciate's picture

It's a bad time to buy a rapidly depreciating house anywhere and has been for the better part of 17 years.

canisdirus's picture

Except very few are depreciating.

What you probably mean is that it's a bad time to buy an overpriced house, which they've been since sometime in the mid-1990s. And that was a plateau, with housing being overpriced since the mid-1970s. Going further back, there was a similar jump in the 1940s after WWII that never declined back to the mean.

We could be in a superbubble or we could just be seeing the Fed doing their dirty work in these charts.

Houses Depreciate's picture

Well not really... not at all. Housing prices didn't deviate from the long term trend until the mid 1990's. And now prices are 300% higher than long term historic price trend.


And remember..... All houses depreciate my friend. All houses depreciate.

Ramesees's picture

Hell, since we're using those metrics why don't we just say that any land in the New World sold for more than a trunkful of beads and trinkets is MASSIVELY OVERPRICED!!1 and a huge bubble waiting to pop.    

Houses Depreciate's picture

Of course land is massively overpriced. 

Remember...... There is a globe full of land where 95% of it goes undeveloped. Land is essentially worthless dirt.

Son of Captain Nemo's picture

"Prices began heading down over a year ago."

And "prices" have been irrelevant and inflated for much longer than that heading into 2008 as PPT just keeps going higher in "relative proportion" as time on the market for sale grows longer!

Laddie's picture

Well to those whose god is the $, that is how they look at things. "What's in it for me"

"Overpopulation in the United States will become THE single greatest issue facing Americans in the 21st century. We either solve it proactively or nature will solve it brutally for us via water shortages, energy crisis, air pollution, gridlock, species extinction and worse.

U.S. population will double from 300 million to 600 million on its way to 1 billion in the lifetime of a child born today if we fail to change course."

Frosty Wooldridge 2000

But capitalism is the flip side of communism, and both were hatched by the same ((GROUP)))

A life centered around money is a hollow one–and a nation centered around money isn’t really a nation.

Houses Depreciate's picture

Back to reality my friend..... Population growth is the lowest on record.

canisdirus's picture

Birthrate is low, while immigration is completely offsetting it. The rate of immigration is so fast that this country will be a third world cesspool full of homeless within my lifetime. Major cities will look like major cities in India by 2050.

Houses Depreciate's picture

If that were true, we wouldn't see all these empty high rise apartment and condo buildings in every US  city.


canisdirus's picture

If they're truly empty (and not owned by money laundering foreigners), how are they not in foreclosure?

There's no logic in your assertion. You sound like a paid shill for the RE industry.

Houses Depreciate's picture

With foreclosure moratoriums in effect, of course they're not in foreclosure.


Housing prices have a long way to fall my friend. A very long way to fall.

buzzsaw99's picture

+1 this too, is, er, well, you know.

j0nx's picture

Up 10-15% since January in most areas of No Va. no clue wtf is going on but I guess I'm either going to have to find a new rental or be homeless by end of summer if this keeps up. The old zerohedge RE will crash line is getting old after 4 years...

JRobby's picture

"no clue wtf is going on"

When the numbers make no sense considering key economic factors that DO influence them, the numbers are false.

Obviously the buyers are false. Not saying the sales aren't occurring, just sayng the buyers are not open market.

CJgipper's picture

Let's be honest.  It's money laundering.  It's people moving money out of the rarholes and into the US as the next stage of the financial crisis after the printing begins to unfold.

JRobby's picture

Right on it.

When the shit hits the fan, the US will be one of the safe places to be despite the gloom & doom SHTF blog predictions.

There are over 2 million guns sold a month in the US. Secure food, water and energy. Stay around the house. Shoot anybody that comes by that you don't particularly like the looks of.

Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Agree with much to what you are saying JR BUT what kind of a "utopia" will that be when the "haves with guns" meet "feral-have nots" with guns?

It's going to suck getting shot to death pulling your vegetables out of the backyard garden for the evenings supper... or having to constantly fend off those seeking to gain access to the homestead that aren't welcome?!!!

JRobby's picture

The feral have nots are dead.

Yes, you will need to have family and friends together at the most defendable property. That goes without saying.


"When the man with a 45 meets the man with a rifle, you said, "the man with a pistol is a dead man." [Joe loads his gun] Let's see if it's true. Go ahead, load up and shoot."

CJgipper's picture

4?  You mean 10 years?  The bubble never fully blew in 2008 before the printing started.

Houses Depreciate's picture

With nothing selling, the crash already occurred. Now it's just watching the inflated asking prices melt away.

FireBrander's picture

Realestate bubbles can last a lot longer than a person that sees the bubble can afford the associated increases in rent...

orangegeek's picture

chi-coms and east indians arriving in US with laundered cash, buying up everything that moves


beyond full retard

corporatewhore's picture

didn't the Japanese pay top dollar for Rockefeller Square or something right at the top?

This time is different/sarc

Houses Depreciate's picture

Yet housing demand is at 20 year lows and falling so it really doesn't matter what price you ask for your house. It's not going to sell.

FireBrander's picture

I do not live in a "High Demand" tech, oil, etc., boom here...yet 1000sqft pile of shit houses, in poor neighborhoods, are routinely selling for $~130,000...a decade ago, these were ~$60k homes.

A few houses down from a relative of mine was a hoarders house. Literally looks like an abandoned house; but it's wasnt'. A big boat sat in the driveway for at least 15 years, never moved a single time...yard was a jungle...I don't know what happened, but the ~900sqft house was sold for $40,000 two years back; $40k is the assessed value of the land, so they got the house for "free".

They removed the rotted front picture window, pulled up a front loader bucket and just started tossing shit out the window filling a dumptruck. A crew in freaking hazmat suits spent an entire day just throwing stuff away.

6 months later the property was revamped and sold for $120k.

Houses Depreciate's picture

As always, the end result of such sketchy things is a tsunami of excess, empty and defaulted houses.


Let her rip.

omi's picture

It's unfair to call Detroit a city. It's more of an area where people voluntarily get to experience state sponsored saddism. 

Houses Depreciate's picture

Detroit is the face of Seattle, San Fran or Boston tomorrow. It's inevitable.

I am Jobe's picture

Austin Texas is getting there. 

Anarchyteez's picture

...and in Seathell there has only been 9 days of sun in 2017.

If the country needs an enema that's where the hose goes.

I am Jobe's picture

Ahhh, Cities and Counties are rejoicing as they raise rates . Nice , ah the dream 

MuffDiver69's picture

Anyone try to get a mortgage since Obama...It doesn't bother me outside the hassle, because I put twenty percent down, but it's beyond ridiculous...That said....the economy hasn't been growing nearly enough to support a boom...Why is any of this news...People who live in the real world know this...The numbers are irrelevant in these contexts...

Houses Depreciate's picture

Nonsense. Getting a mortgage has never been easier.

flemsnopes's picture

Marijuana businesses "banking" their cash in real estate to bring it up to acceptable federal government standards, irrationally exhuberant house flippers and hot money from China, all under the aegis of the Fed. You're welcome.

directaction's picture

You know the housing market has peaked when the cost of pricey New York City condos is dropping while battered, mildew-soaked Portland, Oregon, houses are still climbing. That's how it went in 2006.  

illuminatus's picture

Soaring rates?? Hahahaha, you ain't seen nothing yet!