Why Trump's First War Is Probably Going To Be A Conflict With North Korea

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Daniel Lang via SHTFplan.com,

By now most people are completely desensitized to stories involving North Korea (just look at the lack of mainstream media coverage of tonight's missile test-launch). One can only hear about so many blustering threats, missile launches, and state sanctioned executions, before those incidents are no longer surprising. Over the years we’ve seen it all, and most folks don’t really pay much attention to what’s going on in the Hermit Kingdom. That’s unfortunate, because they’re not paying attention as the Trump administration inches towards war with North Korea.

The first definite sign that the current administration was going to take a different approach to North Korea, was when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stated emphatically last month that “all options are on the table.”

“Let me be very clear. The policy of strategic patience has ended. We are exploring a new range of diplomatic, security and economic measures. All options are on the table,”

Tillerson told reporters during a joint news conference with South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se on Friday.

 

“Certainly we do not want to, for things to get to military conflict,” Tillerson said.

 

However, he went on to say that “if they (North Korea) elevate the threat of their weapons program to a level that we believe requires action, then, that option’s on the table.”

 

He added that a “comprehensive set of capabilities” is being developed to deal with the country.

And at least one of those options is already in place. Before that interview even took place, US special forces were already training to decapitate the North Korean regime.

Despite that threat, North Korea has refused to back down on their nuclear program, and for good reason. Kim Jong-un’s regime believes that they won’t be safe from foreign invasion unless they have a nuclear tipped ICBM that can be launched at targets that are thousands of miles away.

The US government on the other hand, has taken a different position. Our government believes that North Korea can’t be trusted with that kind of military capability. In a sense both sides are correct, but clearly those opinions are diametrically opposed. Unless one side backs down, there will be war before North Korea demonstrates that it can launch a nuclear tipped ICBM.

And President Trump has tacitly admitted that he’s willing to go to war with North Korea. During a recent interview with Financial Times, he stated if China can’t or won’t reign in North Korea, then our government is willing to “act alone.”

POTOMAC FALLS, Va. (AP) — President Donald Trump says that the United States is prepared to act alone if China does not take a tougher stand against North Korea’s nuclear program.

 

Trump’s comments in an interview with the Financial Times come just days before he is set to host Chinese President Xi Jinping at his Mar-a-Lago estate in South Florida. The two are expected to discuss a number of issues, including North Korea, trade and territorial disputes in the South China Sea during their meeting on Thursday and Friday.

 

“Yes, we will talk about North Korea,” Trump told the newspaper for a story that appeared Sunday on its website. “And China has great influence over North Korea. And China will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they won’t. And if they do that will be very good for China, and if they don’t it won’t be good for anyone.”

Without China’s help, there can’t be any peaceful resolution with North Korea, because China is the closest thing to a friend that country has on the global stage. Unfortunately, there isn’t much of a chance that China is going to defang this regime anytime soon. If they could they would have done so a long time ago. They may enjoy having a communist buffer state between their capital and an American ally in the south, but they don’t want to live right next door to a certifiably insane regime with nuclear weapons.

I don’t think that China could ever convince North Korea to give up its nuclear program. Kim Jong-un saw what happened to countries like Libya and Iraq after they abandoned their WMD programs. And North Korea is probably just as afraid of regime change at the hands of China as they are of America, because China would prefer a buffer state that is much more obedient and prosperous (and you know, not armed with nukes that at the command of a lunatic). Even North Korea’s closest friend is kind of an enemy, and they need capable nukes to defend themselves from China as well.

So if China can’t convince them to give up their nukes, and the United States won’t tolerate a nuclear armed North Korea, then there’s only two possible outcomes. Either our government is going to blink in this standoff, or there’s going to be war.

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researchfix's picture

Would be a very bad move, don´t underestimate Korea Kim and his peoples army.

Victory_Garden's picture

That guy Thornews on utube is really funny sometimes. He has a meme that goes like, wave after wave after wave in a sorta reverbery sound. In the tone of his voice along with the distortion, funny!

Well, what is not so funny is what may come. The greatest secret of all time. Why we see distraction, after distraction, after distraction of which this possibility of yet moar woar or God forbid, reality, is just another. It's like they are using the Bible for a script in a ginormous play.

Oh yah, Maya!

Here is a little bedtime music for you to rest gently by. THIS light is for the strong hearted ONLY!:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tpgQmcU1NY

 

ACP's picture

Dumb shit Kim Chee was once seen looking the wrong way out of a telescope.

Negotiate with command and they will probably kill that fat fuck instead of riskng death.

AVmaster's picture

A war with the NK would be a push over and would actually do some good for the World and the poor bastards living there...

 

Despite them having Scud class missiles, their military is basically a bunch of guys running around with AK's.

 

They don't have the gas to field anything that uses gas: Planes, Tanks, APCs, etc... Their pilots barely have any time in their aircraft. They have to share.

AntiAircraft capability is laughable.

 

They have hundreds of artillary pieces at the DMZ but: They have been left there to rot/rust to pieces. Most likely the bulk of that shit is non functional.

A horde of north korean soldiers running across a field to storm some US soldiers(like during the 50's north korean war) will result in a horde of dead north korean soldiers...

So... The only thing you really have to worry about? China stepping in. And thats starting to sound like a 50/50 chance of actually happening. Especially if trump deals right: "Let us wipe out north korea and we will pull back the missile defense system you are so worried about and we will also improve trade relations and maybe something about the south china sea". Plus china is already showing signs of getting tired of kim dumb dumb...

 

We actually hold all the cards to get china to turn its back on NK. We also have the "oh well" factor if we do go in and blast them all to hell... Kim dumb dumb did it to himself with all the aggrevating circumstances... If he had done nothing, then it would be an entirely different story...

 

 

Zero Point's picture

Why not just assassinate his chubbiness, like the CIA did to Castro?.... Oh... wait, what?

ACP's picture

This aint the 60s. We got everything from bunker busters to railguns.

Tell command they can have 10 years to open their country like commodore Perry, but NO NATION BUILDING, once they kill the pig.

Those mfuckers will be scrambling to get a piece if that Fed-fiat-monetary-poon.

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alt right dude's picture

Well, I don't knoe about that, since there goes Trump's element of surprise:

North Korea Hacks Secret US-South Korean War Plans

Or was it CIA as most of the times? 

Rabbi Chaim Cohen's picture

Or, was the war info in a honeypot to spook Kim Jong Un into a pretext for us to eliminate him? This saber rattling and intrigue has a suspiciously similar feel to the lead-up to Syria. It provides another "cat and mouse" quagmire to be mismanaged and hole in which DC will pour criminalfraudulentdebtmoney we don't really have. Not to mention a place to destroy the dreams/lives of another generation of kids who actually appreciated what America was at one time.

Art Van Delay's picture

My money are on "a diversion" so the neocohens won't force Trump to act against NK.

Someone in the pentagon and MIC is running out of options, so they want to start a war, nevermind if is China, Russia, NKorea.

They just want their $$$

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bob_bichen (not verified) Art Van Delay Apr 5, 2017 8:16 PM

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Stuck on Zero's picture

Why do we care?  Japan, South Korea, China are all running huge trade surpulses against the U.S. screwing us royally. Let them figure out a solution.

Crash Overide's picture

Send in Dennis Rodman with poisoned KFC chicken buckets.

John Law Livez's picture
John Law Livez (not verified) Crash Overide Apr 5, 2017 11:16 AM

North Korean hackers allegedly gained access to secret allied war plans for a conflict on the peninsula.

A South Korean investigation into a security breach last year revealed North Korean hackers accessed parts of Operations Plan (OPLAN) 5027, the Chosun Ilbo reports, citing South Korean defense sources.

The South Korean defense ministry discovered that malware believed to be of North Korean origin had infected thousands of computers inside the military’s cyber command, including the defense minister’s computer. The malware reportedly compromised the Defense Integrated Data Center, where South Korea’s defense information is stored. The defense ministry initially reported that the hackers accessed “some military information, including sensitive information;” however, officials tried to downplay the hack, claiming the impact was limited.

It appears the North may have made off with critical operations plans for an war against North Korea. OPLAN 5027 was first drafted in 1978, and the plan was updated regularly to address changes in North Korean capabilities and warfare.

A new plan, OPLAN 5015, was put into place in 2015. While the specifics for OPLAN 5015 are classified, the plan is believed to consolidate previous contingency plans, specifically OPLAN 5029 (internal instability in North Korea), OPLAN 5027 (preparations for an all-out war), and a peacetime plan involving localized provocations from North Korea. OPLAN 5015 is suspected to call for preemptive strikes on the North’s essential military facilities and weapons, and possibly North Korean leadership. As the original OPLAN 5027 is still a component of the new plan, the breach may be very serious.

“Discussions are still in place” over how the military should respond to the hack, the Chosun Ilbo reports. Officials are considering whether an overhaul is necessary.

While it is disconcerting that the North may have seen classified war plans, far more troubling is the reality that North Korea may continue to use various asymmetric warfare tactics, such as cyber warfare, to weaken allied defenses. Cyber warfare, which is highly effective, is relatively inexpensive, and the risk is low.

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bob_bichen (not verified) John Law Livez Apr 5, 2017 8:20 PM

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John Law Livez (not verified) Crash Overide Apr 5, 2017 11:23 AM

Rosman can't get enough of N Korea.

 

Rodman’s first trip to North Korea took place in February 2013. Since then, he says he’s visited six times. He calls Kim a “friend for life,” and as a result has been condemned by some in America as a traitor and a dupe. But however you judge him, the provocative basketball player is now a potential source of information about a country that is inaccessible to most of the world. From the outside looking in, we see only Kim Jong-un’s appalling human-rights record and his country’s notorious famines, state executions and other abuses—but Rodman has a different perspective.

DuJour: Starting from the very beginning—can you talk about what it was like the first time you set foot in the country?

Dennis Rodman: It’s nothing like you’ve seen over here. Not even close. It’s funny, because when I first went there it was so…Communist. Dry and dreary and like, I don’t know. Everything is so dead. Like The Walking Dead. But the third time I went there, wow. [Pyongyang] changed a lot. New buildings were popping up and [Kim] is building all these new condos and hotels. He built the largest water park in the world, a ski resort and this big bowling alley. He’s doing everything for these people. You could go bowl for a quarter all day or go swimming all day for like 50 cents.

DJ: So in your view he’s “for the people,” yet he’s almost universally regarded as a hostile dictator. How do you reconcile that?

DR: He’s for the people. I wish they had somebody that could actually come back with me. You’ve got a five-foot-one president in a small country that scares the shit out of people on this earth. And people here want to know, “Is he this tyrant? Does he kill people?” I’ve been around him and his compound, I’ve been to his vacation spots. If I would have seen something negative about him, I probably would have come back and said so.

DJ: I realize you’re not a foreign-policy expert, but when you’re visiting, don’t you think they’re only showing you the part that they want to show you?

DR: I know the media very well. It can work against you, it can work for you. And for me, I’ve been dealing with negative publicity all my damn life. But when it comes to politics, I never got involved in that shit.

DJ: It’s hard to shock Dennis Rodman. But did that happen at any time in your trips?

DR: It was only one thing. When I walked into that stadium [for the first game], I sat down, and this little guy walks in. The Harlem Globetrotters were playing and I was sitting on the bench, and he sits right beside me. Seriously, I didn’t know who this f-ker was! People were sitting there kissing his hand and crying and giving their babies to him. I couldn’t believe these people—men and women sitting there crying for 25 minutes—and this kid’s like yay tall! They had this little chant and all the people were on their knees bowing down to this guy. That’s what shocked me right there. I’ve been around—I’ve seen a lot of leaders—but not like that. That’s how I actually met Kim.

The other thing I was really shocked at was when I went to see the grandfather and the father in the mausoleum. It’s about five times bigger than Aventura Mall. The whole thing, I swear to God, it’s five miles in diameter. You cannot run, you cannot walk, you have to get in this escalator. The grandfather is in the middle of the room with all his pictures and stuff, and he’s frozen. That’s a true story! You can’t never bow in front of his head, you have to go around him and bow. I’m like, “Damn! This shit looks real!” They said yeah, he’s frozen forever. The father’s frozen, same thing. Each room is that big and the room after that is for [Kim]. That’s what tripped me out. 150,000 people go in a day. They have to wear black suits. You see them crying the whole time. That’s what trips me out about the country. They all cry.

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bob_bichen's picture
bob_bichen (not verified) alt right dude Apr 5, 2017 8:10 PM

.

giovanni_f's picture

See, every president needs his war. At least one. He could simply get the-fuck-the-US-troops-out-of-South Korea - but that would not give him his war.

fleur de lis's picture

Something is wrong with the math.

North Korea is a pariah state with little or no commerce outsite its borders.

Yet it has the cash to maintain a huge army and fund nuclear programs.

That's a lot of money paid out with no discernible income. 

And that's just for those two sectors -- there's also infrastructure, general expenses, etc.

China is considered the sponsor, but are they really?

What benefit do they get out of a massive insane asylum?

Eventually the asylum inmates will go wild and shut it down, after which either China annexes NK, or NK and SK unite.

Unless there is a black budget funding the whole thing.

Cui bono?

It has happened many times before.

The Russian Empire was destroyed and the USSR created and funded by outside sources even though we were fed the lie that it was all the doings of the Russians themselves.

That project took a lot of money but it fell anyway.

Eventually this will fall, whether internally, externally, or both.

But not for one minute do I believe that China holds all the cards.

Many of them yes, but all of them no.

If China held all the cards they would have cracked down hard a long time ago.

Maybe they have some kind of baby-sitting deal going on.

My guess is that the psycho running the place is breaking down mentally and becoming a liability so he has to go.

This will be some kind of managed collapse.

If the puppet masters can swap the entire population of Europe for impoverished people thousands of miles away over a few years, then taking down the leadership of NK will not be all that difficult.

They only have to go after a small group.

 

 

 

 

 

bustdrs's picture

What's with all conclusions leading to NK insaness?
So conclude China won't/doesn't want an "insane" neighbor?
What benefit do they get from sponsoring an asylum? A fair bit is say.
Is this conclusion of "insanity" because one can't work out the obvious strategic imperative?
Since there's so much insanity elsewhere, how insane does this look? Really??

roddy6667's picture

Americans get their ideas about  North Korea and its leader are from the government controlled American press. They are playing right into the Neocons warmongering hands by believing what they are told to believe. Right now, based on the propaganda they have been fed by thier handlers, Americans are ready to go to war with a country they know absolutely nothing about.

researchfix's picture

"If the puppet masters can swap the entire population of Europe for impoverished people thousands of miles away over a few years, then taking down the leadership of NK will not be all that difficult."

It is a very big difference, because the European governments - contrary to the European people - are members of that grand plan. Korea Kim isn´t a member, and he shoots back. Think only of the 80 subs. They can shut down half of world trade.

fleur de lis's picture

When they want him gone he's gone.

thestarl's picture

I'm sure the residents of Seoul share your enthusiasm

tmosley's picture

I agree with you on most of your post. What it comes down to is that artillary. If it really is in the state you say it is (and the President will know that for a fact), then it will be easy. Seems like that artillary would be easier to maintain than a nuclear program.

Of course, if the US were to employ gallium/mercury armed sap drones, he'd wake up one morning to reports that all their artillary had crumbled to dust. If he woke up at all, as such drones are just as easily armed with injectible cyanide.

Koba the Dread's picture

You speak as if you know a lot about North Korea. How the hell do you know anything about North Korea? You just pulled all that verbiage right out of your ass.

Aaron Hillel's picture

No war is a push over.

If the US go to war and if the NK chooses to assume a strategic defence posture (ie no attacking into the Seoul corridor), this war will be long and costly.

NK is not a tank country, can easily have 3 millions trained and fanaticized soldiers in 72 hours and their mountains are seeded with "long-term defensive position"

Of course, US will have air superiority from the first moment, but to what end?

US had air superiority in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan which all were resounding triumphs /s.

Chinese politburo and comrade Putin would love for the demented criminals from the MIC to enter the NK quagmire, which I believe is created just for that end.

 

Though I do not believe Trump is that idiotic - he has much better chance to try and expand in Syria, more possibilities for a negotiated issue.

TeraByte's picture

It is serious miscalculation to underetimate the world´s fourth biggest army. Germany too inavaded Russia and a number of tanks they busted in two months was greater than generals´estimate for the Soviet´s total tank force and still more tanks were joining to the battle until it turned to the German surrender.

AGuy's picture

"Despite them having Scud class missiles, their military is basically a bunch of guys running around with AK's."

I very much doubt war with NK will be a cake walk. I am sure Seoul will be toast as NK will be able to Nuke it since its so close to the board. NK had dug many tunnels under the board and probably already has a Nuke planted in Seoul, and perhaps other South Korean Cities. Even small Nukes detenated at ground level will be terrible. NK could also launch some high altitude nukes (straight up and away from US anti-missile defenses) detenate it causing a regional EMP. NK does have much in electronic infrastructure, but it could cause severe problems in SK, Japan & China.

Best Option would to get China to deal with NK. Its under their sphere of influence and they created the NK monster. Also China might decide to interviene in ta US/NK conflict.

War with NK simply has too many risks and no rewards. To date there has never been a direct conflict between two nuclear powers. This would be in uncharted territory.

Abbie Normal's picture

A war with NK means possibly sacrificing Seoul, Tokyo, maybe even Honolulu or L.A.

caconhma's picture

It will be Trump's first and the last war. This orange-face asshole is pathetic.

giggler321's picture

they got nukes - end of so its talk or we all pay the price of war

land_of_the_few's picture

Will it be nukes or artillery that erases Seoul? Just curious. Shame, seemed like an interesting place.

East Indian's picture

KJU is not Putin, or even Xi; he will not hesitate to nuke any American targets. And he knows his regime is marked for a colour revolution. That point about the fate of regimes that gave up their WMD programs is perfectly true. One trusts America at one's own peril.

East Indian's picture

Meanwhile, Tyler, Sen McCain is again active, it seems; there is a chemical attack in Syria. Assad is being set up again.

tuetenueggel's picture

McNobrain will be ambasssador in the nuked NK.

Even radiation can´t destroy his brain more then it already is.

philipat's picture

Yes but what kind of war? The US isn't going to put "Boots on the ground" so it will use missiles to take out baby Kim and the (I'm sure completely known) NK missile sites. Then, since NK can't retaliate with ICBM's (Yet) it's Million+ man army will pour over the border into the South. Seoul is a few minutes missile/jet flight and within artilley range from the DMZ and an army of foot soldiers could be in Seoul within days. So the interesting part comes second.

East Indian's picture

And China will be happy to the industrial capacity of SK destroyed and looted.

Someone in Washington DC is counting on that the regime will fall on decapitation. NK regime has its own supporter families, and all of them cant be decapitated at once or even completely. One Kim surviving in a bunker is good enough for the soldiers to obey. So, war it will be, and in SK it will be.

tuetenueggel's picture

Dreams without the chinks.

roddy6667's picture

North Korea does not need an ICBM to nuke the US. It has submarines. Also, a ship carrying a nuke can go right up the Potomac or New York Harbor or San Francisco Bay. America is foolish to think it can launch a nuclear attack and not get hammered back.

China, Russia, or anybody with an axe to grind could also launch a similar attack and make it look like  North Korea. Does America want an all-out nuclear war with everybody?

Bottom line, millions of Americans will die. Who wants to be first? Get your family and get in line.

Just like I thought. Nobody.

philipat's picture

Um, I DELIBERATELY did NOT say that the US wiould use NUCLEAR missiles. It doesn't need to because precision will be the trick not brute force. That still does not preclude the type of relaliation you describe but I think it most unlikey. Unless you think Baby Kim will disguise his ships as Donald Duck? Submarines can't deploy nuclear missiles with the type of warheads available at present to NK.

roddy6667's picture

North Korea does not need an ICBM to the US. It has submarines. Also, a ship carrying a nuke can go right up the Potomac or New York Harbor or San Francisco Bay. America is foolish to think it can laun ch a nmuclear attack and not get hammered back.

Cina, Russia, or anybody with an axe to grind could also launch a similar attack and make it look likke  North korea.

Bottom line, millions of Americans will die. Who's first?

meditate_vigorously's picture

You cant prosecute warfare without Infantry. This has been proven many times in the last 50 years. We can't afford war with NK. I don't think the American people are going to tolerate ANY wars for the foreseeable future.

AGuy's picture

"The US isn't going to put "Boots on the ground" so it will use missiles to take out baby Kim "

The US has been piling up equipment and troops to the NK border for weeks. I've see several pictures of US/SK miltary convoys heading North.

"Then, since NK can't retaliate with ICBM's"

1. NK has many tunnels under the boarder, and probably can or already has Nukes in South Korea, ready to go without firing a Missile.

2. NK can do a EMP, bypassing any US anti-missile system, All they need to do is launch it straight up and detenate it causing an regional EMP. A missile interceptor will never get there in time.

3. I am sure NK has its own plans for symmetric warfare. If NK goes down they are surely going to thrown everything they got to cause the most damage (Scortched Earth tactics) - Nukes, BioWeapons, Chemical, Dirty Bombs. Let there Nuke reactors meltdown, etc.

4. NK has two satillites in Orbit. Do these contain nukes for EMP's? Even if they are low yield nukes, a Low Earth orbit Detenation will probably take out most if not all the communication satellites, and perhaps trash anything in Low Earth orbit making space off-limits all that space trash makes it impossible to keep future satellites from getting damaged.

The US hasn't won a war since WW2. I doubt it win WW3.

Mamzer Ben Zonah's picture

A couple of very connected friends are headed to the area of Kadena Airbase in mid-May. Lil' "Phat Phuck" Kim better head to Beijing for "urgent consultations" real soon now.

Michael Bay's picture
Michael Bay (not verified) Mamzer Ben Zonah Apr 5, 2017 3:53 AM

Why would he give a damn about some ameriturds wasting jet fuel trying to look oh so dangerous, having China at his back? Everybody knows US is a hot air baloon when it comes to somebody who can hit back.

researchfix's picture

And the ´special forces assasination team´ would stand out somehow. No black and brown and white faces in North Korea. But lots of AKs.

hobo with a shotgun's picture

Invade Canada. At least they are in our hemisphere.