2017 Debt Crisis Looms: Congress Will Have 4 Days To Avoid A Government Shutdown On April 29

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

April 2017 could turn out to be one of the most important months in U.S. history that we have seen in a very long time.  On April 6th, Donald Trump attacked Syria on the 100th anniversary of the day that the U.S. officially entered World War I, and now at the end of this month we could be facing an unprecedented political crisis in Washington.  On Friday, members of Congress left town for their two week “Easter vacation”, and they won’t resume work until April 25th.  What this means is that Congress will have precisely four days when they get back to pass a bill to fund government operations or there will be a government shutdown starting on April 29th.

Up to this point, there has been very little urgency by either party to move a spending bill forward.  It is almost as if everyone is already resigned to the fact that a government shutdown will happen.  The Democrats will greatly benefit from a government shutdown because they can just blame the entire mess on the Republicans.  But for the GOP, this is essentially the equivalent of political malpractice.

To me, there is simply no way that Congress is going to be able to agree on a bill that funds the entire government in just four days.  And it turns out that this upcoming deadline comes exactly on the 100th day of Trump’s presidency

The U.S. government is poised to shut down on Day 100 of Donald Trump’s presidency, unless Congress can pass a new spending bill or a continuing resolution before the current one expires on April 28.

 

Since Congress is currently on a two-week recess, there will be a sense of urgency to get a new bill passed once they reconvene on April 25. Leaders in both chambers would have four days to craft a new proposal that each side can agree on and get it on the president’s desk for Trump to sign.

If the Republicans control the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives, why will it be so difficult to get an agreement on a spending bill?

Well, first of all, look at how difficult it was for the Republicans to agree on a bill to repeal and replace Obamacare.  At this point, it doesn’t look like that is going to happen at all.

More importantly, any bill to fund the government is going to require 60 votes in the Senate.  The “nuclear option” that the Republicans just used to push the Gorsuch Supreme Court nomination through is not available in this case under current Senate rules because a spending bill of this nature would not qualify.

So the Democrats have leverage, and they plan to use it to the maximum.  Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is already promising to block any spending bill that includes funds for a border wall or that defunds Planned Parenthood

The threat from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and other Democratic leaders sets up a climactic first showdown with the president, particularly with their inclusion of Trump’s signature border wall proposal.

 

“If Republicans insist on inserting poison pill riders such as defunding Planned Parenthood, building a border wall, or starting a deportation force, they will be shutting down the government and delivering a severe blow to our economy,” Schumer said in a statement.

 

Up until now, Trump hasn’t needed Democratic votes to stock his cabinet or advance the repeal of Obamacare, but a spending bill keeping the government open is subject to a 60-vote threshold in the Senate.

Do you understand what this means?

President Trump is going to be under an immense amount of pressure to end the government shutdown once it begins, but to do so will mean that he has to give up his goal of getting a border wall.

Do you think that Trump will just throw in the towel and forget about his beloved border wall after giving countless speeches promising one?

It is a game of chicken between Trump and the Democrats, and I don’t think that either side will give in easily.

Of even greater importance is the debate over the funding of Planned Parenthood.

There are members of the Freedom Caucus that will absolutely not vote for any spending bill that includes funding for Planned Parenthood.  But without the Freedom Caucus, there aren’t enough Republican votes to get a spending bill through the House of Representatives.

Alternatively, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is vowing that his party will block any funding bill that attempts to defund Planned Parenthood in the Senate.

If Planned Parenthood is not defunded now, it never will be defunded.  This is one of the most pivotal moments in recent U.S. political history, and the outcome is going to have extraordinary consequences for our nation.

For those that are optimistic that there will not be a government shutdown, do you actually expect me to believe that this battle over the funding of Planned Parenthood will somehow get resolved in just four days?

Give me a break.

And of course there are dozens of other major issues that have to be resolved as well.  For example, Senator McCain is promising note to vote for any bill unless it includes an enormous increase in military spending, while many Senate Democrats would be very much against such a move.

I don’t see any way that a government shutdown is going to be avoided at this point, and the longer it goes on the more financial markets are going to get rattled.

 

Meanwhile, we continue to get even more signs that a substantial slowdown has begun for the U.S. economy.  Last week, we learned that only 98,000 jobs were added in March, and that was only about half of what most analysts were expecting.

And since it takes approximately 150,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth, that means that we are losing ground.

At the same time, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasting model is now projecting that U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter of 2017 will be just 0.6 percent on an annualized basis.

That is absolutely pathetic, and as I have said before, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we actually end up with a negative number for the first quarter.

If we do indeed get a negative number for the first quarter and that is followed by another negative number for the second quarter, that will mean that a new recession has already started right now but we just haven’t gotten official confirmation yet.

And lots of other things are already happening which have not happened since the last recession.  For instance, this is the first time since the last financial crisis when there has been no growth for commercial and industrial lending for at least six months.

In addition, commercial bankruptcies spiked during the last recession, and now it is happening again

Commercial bankruptcy filings, from corporations to sole proprietorships, spiked 28% in March from February, the largest month-to-month move in the data series of the American Bankruptcy Institute going back to 2012.

Of course consumer bankruptcies are rising at an alarming rate as well.  The following comes from Wolf Richter

In December, bankruptcy filings rose 4.5% from a year earlier. In January they rose 5.4%. It was the first time consumer bankruptcies rose back-to-back since 2010. I called it “a red flag that’ll be highlighted only afterwards as a turning point.”

 

In March, consumer bankruptcy filings rose 4% year-over-year, to 77,900, the highest since March 2015, when 79,000 filings occurred, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute data.  The turning point has now been confirmed.

If you would like, I could keep talking about the bad economic news for a couple thousand more words.  U.S. credit card debt has just surpassed the one trillion dollar mark, a major crisis has arrived for the U.S. auto industry, thousands of retail stores are closing all over America, our pension funds are underfunded by trillions of dollars, and the U.S. national debt is now sitting at a grand total that is just shy of 20 trillion dollars.  The only reason that we have not crossed that 20 trillion dollar mark yet is because the debt ceiling deadline has already passed, and that is another thing that Congress needs to address very quickly if they want to avoid a major crisis.

Needless to say, the last thing that we need at this point is another war or two on top of everything else.

Unfortunately, a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group headed by the USS Carl Vinson is heading toward North Korea right at this moment, and Russia and Iran are promising to “respond with force” to any new U.S. attacks on Syria.

Those that were hoping for some sort of “reprieve” under Donald Trump can forget all about that now.  The pace of global events is really starting to accelerate, and the U.S. is already in a more precarious position than it was at any point in 2016.

The clouds have been building for a very long time, and now the storm is almost upon us.  I hope that you have been getting prepared, because a day of reckoning for the United States of America is closing in very rapidly.

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Squid Viscous's picture

Rethugs got this..."deficits don't matter anymore" especially with 2 new wars imminent

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Citizenry should be celebration whenever government is shut down! Holiday from statist bureaucrat is always much cause for joy, cannot spend wealth of nation!

HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) Boris Alatovkrap Apr 11, 2017 9:42 PM

Boris and me agree!

Dealing with fucking government is like reading Kafka's novel, "Metamorphosis." Watching a person become a cockroach is not pretty. Plenty of them half-formed sitting behind desks at every VA hospital in the USSA.

Clint Liquor's picture

Just read on MSN that the Russians caused the Brexit vote. Next up, they are responsible for the US debt.

Sudden Debt's picture

sso they hacked Obama's brain and forced him to give Trillions and Trillions of dollars to bankers and buddy's???!!!!

I KNEW IT!!!

 

AMERICA!!! the sitcom... S17E98

Mr Blue's picture
Mr Blue (not verified) Sudden Debt Apr 12, 2017 7:00 AM

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... http://bit.ly/2jdTzrM

shamus001's picture

SHUT IT DOWN- SHUT IT ALL DOWN.   Then stop collecting taxes while your at it.  Send the trough -feeing beaucrats home without jobs.  Kill regulations in droves, let the farmer down the road sell fresh milk, and take it upon himself to be sued if it's bad.  Let markets manage themselves through production and performance, and while your at it, plant more trees and teach these damn kids how to climb them. (without helmets, or padded gear)

Twee Surgeon's picture

What a delight, to see millions of people sent home to realize the Truth. They are insignificant and non productive Social charity Cases. Affirmative action hires and utterly unqualified to work at anything more complex than a hand Car-Wash.

Oh, the Horror !

HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) Twee Surgeon Apr 11, 2017 10:01 PM

Some of them are so stupid I wouldn't want them touching my car for a hand wash! They would fuck that up. Seriously.

By the way, I have only seen one Porsche SUV. Where? At my local VA. You can't make this shit up. I didn't even know Porsche made SUVs.

XqWretch's picture

Meh, entitlements arent even touched in a govt shutdown. This would just furlough some workers, shut down some parks, not really like anything will change from this

Twee Surgeon's picture

Yeah, i think it is called The CrabbyolLady or the Trustfund special or something. Much like a Subaru outback, it is usually driven by a Hillary or Bernie vote and should be avoided on the Highways due to Spazmodic halfwit drivers.

Delaware Dick's picture

Just wonder.... .how many of them have you met?

frank further's picture

Sorry, but in the last sutdown, it seemd to me that only the Natl Parks were shut down.  Anybody remember what else?

brianshell's picture

Budget, what budget?

Turn those presses back on Mortimer!

How about if we spend less?

justin423's picture

The last shutdown caused spending to increase 130 million over what it would have been wihtout a shutdown because of what are essentially "restarting" costs associated with it.

 

They didn't fund the air traffic control system which is what caused the final agreement on restarting the government. If it had lasted a few more days, they were looking at literally stopping air travel in the US.

 

justin423's picture

The last shutdown caused spending to increase 130 million over what it would have been wihtout a shutdown because of what are essentially "restarting" costs associated with it.

 

They didn't fund the air traffic control system which is what caused the final agreement on restarting the government. If it had lasted a few more days, they were looking at literally stopping air travel in the US.

 

bonin006's picture

Boris,

I would celebrate if government really did shut down, but they never did before. They just shut down the useful things like parks, and don't really save any money even there, as they still post guards to keep people out. Last time they even tried to close the Vietnam War Memorial by putting up barricades around it, but the veterans hauled the barricades away.

Heavy's picture

jubilation all around boris

HardAssets's picture

Given the massively stupid actions domestically & in foreign affairs of those in government, shutting them down would likely be one of the best things that could happen.

in4mayshun's picture

No worries. Trump is already showing his true colors- he's gonna huddle up with his buddies and punt that can down the road. (Past his term of course...)

booboo's picture

Ivanka poses nude for War Bonds Poster with the phrase "Buy Bonds cause loose lips sink ships"

doctor10's picture

its simple....either the bankerz get what they want from syria and russia...or Trump gets his new government closed May 2nd

Twox2's picture

Nothing quite like a land war in Asia and potential nuclear conflagration to stimulate agreement on a temporary spending bill...

nmewn's picture

OMG DE CHILLLRENS!

SHEEPFUKKER's picture

On vacation, then giving themselves another vacation. 

Golden Showers's picture

April 29 1992. LA Riots. April 29 2017 Trump's magical century turns.

Last one to leave, turn out the lights, K?

PS we don't need you.

Edit: Yup, 1992 was 25 years ago. Since then, shit still sucks and nothing has changed. Why?

Armed Resistance's picture

It was April 26th, like the classic sublime song:

I don't know if you can
But can you get an owner for ons, that's o-n-s
Junior market, the address is 1934 east aneheim
All the windows are busted out, and it's like a free-for-all in here
And uh the owner should at least come down here
And see if he can secure his business, if he wants to

April 26th, 1992
There was a riot on the streets, tell me where were you?
You were sitting home watching your tv
While I was participating in some anarchy

First spot we hit it was my liquor store
I finally got all that alcohol I can't afford
With red lights flashing time to retire
And then we turned that liquor store into a structure fire

Next stop we hit it was the music shop
It only took one brick to make that window drop
Finally we got our own p.a
Where do you think I got this guitar that you're hearing today?

Some folks's picture

That's why there was no delay in vacation, it's already a done deal....as always.

Lanka's picture

There are other options: (a) invade N. Korea on 25th April, (b) say fuck-it, cut .gov to 25% of the current size, bring the troops home, and deal with the ensuing depression, or (c) start a gofundme page. 

HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) Apr 11, 2017 9:39 PM

After the way some of the VA staff have treated me, good, they need a long fucking unpaid vacay. Those assholes can't be fired. Fine. This is a way to fire them.

Squid Viscous's picture

again with the VA?

cue the world's smallest violin, maybe you shouldn't have enlisted to begin with

HRH Feant's picture
HRH Feant (not verified) Squid Viscous Apr 11, 2017 9:50 PM

Fuck off. But you are paying for those losers to turn into cockroaches.

Your taxdollars at work.

Squid Viscous's picture

sounds like you "paid" alot more than I ever will for this shit show...

frank further's picture

You, sir, hopefully live in Moscow.  If not, please move there.

pparalegal's picture

What is your complaint with government run single payer? I was told it will be a progressive nervana of health and well being for all.

Herb Ellis's picture

Fear mongering... They do this crap every time this budget BS is up and what they always do, raise the roof again. 

Reality: The gub'ment benefits 'will be' closed causing chaos, 1 week worth of news bytes and it's approved.

 

Next wanna be crisis please?

BingoBoggins's picture

Crisis? Oh, yeah? Whaddya got???

Dancing Disraeli's picture

So... the Iwo Jima memorial closes.  I don't recall anything else from the last one other than that.

Squid Viscous's picture

i think they had to close the satanic obelisk on the Mall for a few days too, the horror

booboo's picture

You mean the National Phallic Symbol?

pparalegal's picture

Grand Canyon and Yosemite were shut with a vengeance and a middle finger to the tourists.

shamus001's picture

Genius wasn't it?  One of the "feW" federal parks that ACTUALLY BRING IN REVENUE

Dr. Engali's picture

Blah, blah, blah, debt ceiling, blah. When haven't they raised the debt ceiling after first initiating a healthy dose of theater and fear?

Winston Churchill's picture

Moar on woar makes all the repulocrats happy.No biggy now they have  Donald(fuck les deplorables) Vader is in charge.

What a difference a week makes.

Et tu Donald.

Implied Violins's picture

"Et tu" is soooo March 15th. More like, "Fuck U Donald."