Labor Market JOLTed: Rate Of Hiring Suffers Biggest Drop In 4 Years

Tyler Durden's picture

While too backward looking to be actionable (reflecting the labor situation with a 2 month delay) especially in a time when everyone is focused on the future - or lack thereof - of Trump's fiscal policies today's JOLTs report failed to capture the sharp slowdown in the March jobs report, instead corroborating the last of the "good" payroll prints, that of February.

So what did "Janet Yellen's favorite labor market indicator" show? 

First the good news: after flatlining for the previous six months, job openings had the biggest monthly increase since September, rising by 118K to 5.743 million, from 5.625m in January, and higher than expected. As a result, the job opening rate (job openings as a % of total employment plus openings) rose modestly to 3.8% from 3.7% prior month.

And while America's millions of job openings remain unfilled (the highest number was in educational and health services, followed by professional and business services), a more troubling trend could be observed in the one chart that actually matters from a so-called job "flow" perspective, hiring.

The BLS reported that in February, the number of Americans hired dropped to 5.314 million, sliding by 110K or the biggest monthly drop since April.

Putting the above chart in a more troubling light was the Y/Y % rate of change: as shown in the chart below, not only did the rate of hiring not rise over the past year, but in February it declined by 3.6% relative to last year. This was the biggest decline in the annual rate of hiring in over four years, going back to March 2013.

Which leads to our favorite chart: hiring vs payrolls. Has the long overdue inflection point finally arrived, and will the slowdown in hiring finally pull down the number of actual net jobs added?

Last but not least was that other key indicator, the "quits" rate, or the "take this job and shove" it metric according to Convergex' Nick Colas. As a reminder, Americans only quit their jobs when they are confident they can find a better paying job elsewhere, and last month we saw the number of quits rising to the highest level in 16 years. Well, in February not only was the January number revised lower, but the February quits number also dropped by some 102,000, undoing the January gains, and the biggest monthly drop in the quits rate since January 2016, suggesting that suddenly Americans are notably less confident about better job prospects out there.

If all this took place during February, when the payroll report was seen as extremely positive, we can only imagine what the March JOLTs report will look like next month.

Source: JOLTS

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NugginFuts's picture

Fuck jobs. We're going to be exporting the unemployed to fight the NORKs and Syrians, bitch!


Buck Johnson's picture

Yep, a draft will be declared and that will take care of many of the people/Millennials that are out of a job.



syzygysus's picture

Thermonuclear war will reduce the population to 500,000,000 as they planned.  Or the upcoming bird flu pandemic will do it.

spastic_colon's picture

trump finally got the idea; save the actual tax cut announcement for a market saving event; dont waste it on ATH' crisis needed first.

Handful of Dust's picture

Soaring joblessness is just more of the ripple effect of a strong 8 years robust recovery.

Thats awl.


Giant Meteor's picture

Thanks. I was waiting for an explanation that I could really wrap my brain around.

Well done!

Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

You know we are in the biglyist of all bubbles when a -127 on the dow = -.61%.

junction's picture

United Airlines has openings for customer service agents handy with their fists.  

shizzledizzle's picture

Everything was great then suddenly it wasn't.

SmilinJoeFizzion's picture

I hear SBUX is hiring 10,000 refugees

ejmoosa's picture

I know it is a real hard concept for government economists to get, but 4-5 quarters after profits turn down, companies slow hiring.

We recognize that governments never have to deal with those sorts of things but the rest of us do.

Consuelo's picture
Hiring managers last to get the memo...
Mtnrunnr's picture

Another destructive cycle of laying off humans for the next version of robots. Wealth accumulation continues unabated.

SomethingSomethingDarkSide's picture

aand now, TBTD drop The Market and begin Global Chaos..

Don't walk, run to precious metals, any kind.

jamesmmu's picture

DOw been up for 8 years straight,  the united airline passenger finally breaks the market? Who would have thought of that? Shocking!! LOL

aliens is here's picture

Jobs? We don't need jobs. We need people to be cannon fodders for the war mongers and MIC. Death industry needs mass deaths in order to make money.

astartes09's picture

Trump's problem now.

Giant Meteor's picture

Told ya folks, it's all a bubble folk's, it's all a scam folks, it's popping now folks .. DJT

Btw, I don't believe it is the don's problem now. Something tells me he is going to be just fine ..


Ricki13th's picture

The eCONomic recovery is proven to be another fraud just like the ADP numbers. This is why the Trump administration pivoted to foreign policy and warmongering.

tbone10's picture

Stick to war Trump, you found your calling