Two Critical Factors In French Election: Sureness And Abstentions

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The most recent French election polls remain very tight. Four candidates have a genuine shot at making it to the final round.

The first round vote is on April 23. Yet, a huge percentage of voters still have not made up their minds who to vote for.

Another 32% to 37% plan on sitting the election out or purposely spoiling their ballot.

4.5 Percentage Points Separate Macron, Fillon, Mélenchon

Round One Confidence

How confident should Le Pen and Macron be regarding round one? Take a guess before reading further.

Support for Le Pen is relatively solid. So is support for Fillon. Hamon, Mélenchon, and Macron have issues.

33% of Macron’s alleged base may not even vote for him!

If Mélenchon can manage to hold his base while capturing support for Macron, we could see something virtually no one but me has even discussed: Le Pen vs Mélenchon in round two.

Which Way Are Undecideds Likely to Break?

To ascertain who voters are likely to switch to, assuming they switch, let’s investigate round two intent.

Macron is the clear winner in second round intent, but results vary widely.

Those intending to vote for Hamon are highly likely to support Macron in round two, assuming, of course, Macron does make it to round two.  However, Hamon is only polling 8.5% now as his base has largely abandoned him already.

Despite the fact that the positions of Le Pen and Mélenchon are very similar, Le Pen presumably would pick up very little support from Mélenchon while a whopping 40% would choose to sit the election out in protest.

This looks like a lukewarm hold your nose vote for Macron.

If Fillon is knocked out of round one, his support would be much more evenly split, but Macron still rates better than Le Pen.

Does Any of This Make Much Sense?

On the surface, not much.

Le Pen and Mélenchon both eject EU institutions, free trade, and NATO. Both are in favor closer ties with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Fillon is pro-Europe as is Macron and Hamon. But Le Pen, who is vehemently anti-Europe, rates to pick up 31% of Fillon’s vote if he is knocked out, assuming you believe the polls.

Neither Le Pen nor Mélenchon is likely to get their anti-Euro legislation passed in French parliament and that assessment may help both of them at the expense of Macron.

Le Pen vs Macron

Here’s another chart to ponder.

Given round two intentions stated above, this should have been a massive landslide Macron. But it isn’t.

The above chart is yet another sign of doubt about Macron.

Macron better not make any serious blunders in the final 12 days of round one campaigning.

Also consider French Candidate Mélenchon Launches “Fiscal Kombat”: Free Video Game on Sharing Wealth.

Those wishing to play the game can do so at FiscalKombat.Fr.

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wesson's picture

Once again ZH fail to see that Melenchon which have all the dynamic will be the winner

Mr Blue's picture
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BritBob's picture

Le Pen wants to follow the UK out of the EU. The EU will then ultimately fall apart.

 Fair to say that the majority of the people in Britain were happy to join an economic union with free trade, but not a political union. Who wants to be ruled by Brussels?

 

Brexit

The UK will opt for a hard Brexit especially when one country (or part of a country in Belgium) can stall negotiations for so long. Spain could act in a similar fashion over Gibraltar and has the cheek to maintain its Gibraltar sovereignty claim. Claim?

Gibraltar - Some Relevant International Law: https://www.academia.edu/10575180/Gibraltar_-_Some_Relevant_Internationa...

 

So it looks like a quick hasta luego !

Ghordius's picture

yes, BritBob, the EU will fall apart because... some Brexiters hope that. sure

Expat's picture

Most Europeans want to remain in the EU.  Most Brits want to remain in the EU, though the Brexiteers want all the good stuff without any of the obligations or costs (Gosh, doesn't that make them communist?).

I am not sure why Americans are getting so worked up about the EU?  ZH commenters who could not even draw a map of Europe let alone describe the politics and international relations of the member countries spend an awful lot of ink and time ranting about us.  America is totally fucked up. Why not spend some energy sorting yourselves out first?  The EU is prosperous.  We have excellent education and health care.  We are secure.  We have great public services including transportation.  We live longer, happier lives than Americans.  So fuck off, America. 

Expat's picture

Let me say it again: Fuck off, America.  Just because you are ignorant, illiterate, homophobic, xenophobic, repressed, oppressed, and violent, doesn't mean everyone has to be.

Dilluminati's picture

The tyranny of concensus.   Certainly the most effective means to make core national security decsions.

I was listening to bloomburg 

http://www.politico.eu/blogs/playbook-plus/2017/03/today-at-commission-p...

So the first thing the FUD crowd tossed down was the YOUR PET will suffer, they said that pets would need passports.

Now under the current regime anyone can go anywhere without a passport and that is squalor and national suicide.

Knowing that the public wouldn't want the refugees anyway they adopted the pet tacttic.

So I'm listening to the news and the guy says: It will take at least 6 months of negoitiating to get to a frameworkd for pets alone!

Then he goes on to say: The Brits thought they could save their jobs by a brexit and they can't the unemployment will still deteriorate as with the EU.

I swear that was said even the press secratries can't conceal or spin some things adequately, what we are really witnessing is corporate fascism, destruction of the traditional family and values, nationalism, and any sense of individuality.

"I'm driving early sunday morning through waynesboro listening to political lies on the globalist radio station"

http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/rollingstones/farawayeyes.html

You think Gibraltar is an issue?  We live in a world where some titled buerecrat has established themselves in the "land of no" to make a living by telling you what can and cannot be done in what was ostensibly a free and open society.

I thought the quick argument about pets cyncial because we know what the prevailing attitudes are concerning the refugees.

Maybe Bernie could have beaten Trump, but Hillary sure as hell isn't winning in France either.

 

 


 

DeadFred's picture

Really? You mean little FiFi will have to stay home when we go on holiday? Oh dear! How could they, those brutes!

Vinividivinci's picture

Another potential "critical factor"...Diebold voting machines...

Aussie Battler's picture

As someone who picked Trump, my take is we will see Le Pen and Melenchon win the first round.

Le Pen is likely to go through as we know and the media has no incentive to lie about her popularity to the upside.

So we can give her a tick (I'm With Her, yay!)

OK, so here's where it gets interesting. I'm calling Fillon shot, the scandals hit hard and there just doesn't seem to be a lot of enthusiasm for him.

So, Macron and Melenchon compete for the second spot.

Macron is everything people have rebelled against. He is the Establishment. A Rotschild banker (probably owned for the globalist project), ex PS (Hollande's unpopular government), darling of the mainstream media. 'Maverick', 'Rockstar', yeah my ass. Now there is a possibility his polls are being inflated by the media to create a self-fulfilling prophecy like they tried to do with Hillary.

A lot of votes would have gone to him simply because the left was in disarray and to avoid Fillon/Le Pen (a rightwing second round). 

No longer. Melenchon is here and everyone knows it. Hamon's base is leaving for him and part of Macron's is too.

Game theory suggests if Hamon's base prefers Melenchon to Macron they will change their vote to him. Now Hamon and Macron do share some similarities (pro-EU) for example. But I think a lot of pissed off lefties (anti neo-liberalism) will go Melenchon. Lefties have a viable candidate now instead of an anti Le Pen candidate.

All the momentum is with Melenchon.

Le Pen v Melenchon, likely Melenchon victory is my take.

Ghordius's picture

you picked the one most on the Left and the one most on the Right

haven't you forgot that there is a center of politics, in France? actually, there is one in the US, too, but it's silent, fragmented, harried by the extremes, forgotten, mishandled and made to shut up

but not in France

Aussie Battler's picture

What all those poor beaten up Democrats? Laughing hard. People are pissed off worldwide for a reason. The New world order/globalist "conspiracy" is out in the open. Throwing the kitchen sink at any nationalist candidate, or heaven forbid someone who doesn't want whites to be minorities in their own countries (Nazi!). People are awake and they're angry. Watch. 

Ghordius's picture

you consider the US Democratic party... centrist? Laughing hard, too

"Throwing the kitchen sink at any nationalist candidate..."

are you still in europe, as the article? how do you consider the Polish or the Hungarian government, if not nationalist?

have you ever looked at the ruling party in Scotland? you know how they are called? Scottish National Party (SNP)

is any european country in danger of becoming one where whites are a minority? nope. that's what is happening now in the US, while even the wildest projections in specific countries here go at most with 70% whites not earlier then 2060

you might be angry, and you might be even right to be so, but it's not the same as projecting your anger on completely different, foreign situations just because you feel your anger ought to be an international affair

Azannoth's picture

This shows all too well how dysfunctional a Democracy really is, instead of majority-rule we get a cluster-fuck of minority interests

Ghordius's picture

are you serious? besides, are you talking about France?

yes, a democracy is built around the notion that there is a lot of minority interests, particularly if it's one based on proportional voting methods. what do you want? homogenize people?

Bollockinell's picture

The polls cannot be trusted. We all know that.
I doubt Melenchon will make it and although I believe Le Pen will make it through to the 2nd round, Macron will probably end up as the winner. Not because he deserves to but because his background is with Rothschild and Co.

Consider also that France has for a long time been a US vassal. Things will be happening behind the scenes to make sure that doesn't change. And who is the chosen candidate of the elites? No prizes for guessing that one!

Ghordius's picture

"the polls", both in the Netherlands and in one federated state in Germany, they were actually very precise and correct, lately

further, that "France has for a long time been a US vassal"... does it include when French battleships were in NY harbour collecting gold for dollars? does it include the time when France left the NATO alliance?

God is The Son's picture

Lets Hope Le Pen doesn't become a Zionist

Expat's picture

You really have no fucking clue about anything, do you?  I suppose your wisdom comes from that famous novel written by 9th century kings and despots.

God is The Son's picture

Leftism is Globalism

Ghordius's picture

interestingly, this is partly correct

"Leftism" is nothing else then a stronger emphasis on one of the three French Revolution tenets: Equality

now, you can, of course, be moderately equalitarian, for example by asking that a French or an American citizen is treated equally to another citizen of the same country in front of the law, in court

the very image of that is of Justice wearing a blindfold, i.e. not judging you because of whatever, which can be for example the presence or absence of a billion bucks on a bank account

an extreme equalitarian's point of view reaches the point that says that we are all humans on the same planet, and so entitled to the very same treatment in all facets of public life, best under one government only

but there is a huge lot of space, among those two versions, and further two tenets: Fraternity (on which both Family and Nation are built) and Liberty (of individuals). the trick would be to find a balance between the three. often made difficult by extremists of the various tenets

God is The Son's picture

French Revolution was a Masonic Movement, to remove Christianity, King and Queen, Just like Bolshevikism aka Jewish Revolution in Russia. I suspect French Revolution was plotted by Jews.

God is The Son's picture

The Communists idealized the French Revolution. You must realize the French Revolution was Anti-Christianity. When Marxism came to France, it basically replaced so called Liberty. Now the Jew's Divide France like no tomorrow. The EU leader never went to Liberty Class's, French Revolution Class's they all became Leninists, Marxists, Mao's, Troskyites. The Update to French Revolution was Marxism.

God is The Son's picture

American was founded under Masonic French Revolution Values, look at it now the Bolshevism took it over also. Ironic isn't it?

God is The Son's picture

Nothing will change in France with all opponents they all EU Marxist Globalistic Scum, with Le Pen, there is chance of change, lets hope should doesn't become a TRUMP and do 180 like that treasonous TRUMP.

Ghordius's picture

and what is Marxist about the EU? or... "Globalist"?

as a reminder, the motto of the UK government for Brexit is: "Global Britain"

their intention is to make the UK more globalized, more open and connected into the world

in their view, the EU is... too protectionistic, too friendly to Russia, etc. etc.

God is The Son's picture

Trotsky (the Jew) wanted to destroy Nations States, Remove Christianity, Destroy Western Civilization, that pretty much the EU

Ghordius's picture

so? Lenin wanted to destroy the Nation State, too. besides, Mr. Bannon of Breitbart News in the US said something similar

and? what has the EU to do with all that? let me see...

- the key body of the EU is the Council, which is... governments of the Nation States

- the ruling party of the EU is the EPP, which is a bunch of.... Christian Democrats, with lots of emphasis on Christian values

- the basic understanding of the EU is that it is about civilized governance... i.e. Civilization (in the Western sense)

so, what is exactly your point?

God is The Son's picture

Christianity has no SPECIAL PLACE in the EU. There all Communists. Communists are Atheists.

Expat's picture

Well, I guess we could be ignorant, stupid assholes like Christian Americans instead.  Lower life expectancy. Stress from economic uncertainty.  Poor or no health care(or very expensive health care).  Poor public services.  Constant threat of violence in our everyday lives.  Global dickheads.

Yep, I will take the horrible communist European atheists over total fuckwits like you.  You probably advocate hate and violence, which doesn't sound very Christian to me, more like old testament Judaism. 

Please, stay in America.  Stay ignorant and read your bible.  Inbreed with your cousins and children.  BUild the wall.  Stay the fuck out of Europe we are much happier than you!

UndertheDRADIS's picture

You might want to check where declining US health and life expectancy are demographically based. HINT: The answer will be all rayciss an' sheeeeeit.

Expat's picture

LOL.  You mght want to check your math.  Look at percentages and then come back to me.  Blacks, hispanics,and other minorities would have to live to about 12 years old if you white guys were living longer than the rest of the world.

Nope, it's inbred sister-fuckers who are suffering in their trailer parks along with urban blacks and hispanics.

In any case, what the fuck kind of comment is that anyway?  You are basically saying that America, the "greatest country on earth", discriminates against racial minorities to such an extent that they drag down the overall statistics of Greatest White Christians on the Planet.

I have no clue if you understand what you are even saying ( I doubt it) but it's not very flattering.

God is The Son's picture

Problem with you, you think into too fine detail manner, that you miss the entire picture.

God is The Son's picture

I don't like the Values of the EU, as I said their Marxists with Globalistic Ambitions, who push Multiculturalism, Atheism as the State Religion and want CONTROL Europe with their Marxist Terrorist LAWS. FUCK THE EU.

sinbad2's picture

Trotsky like all Marxists was an atheist, intelligent people don't talk to imaginary friends.

Religion only prospers in backward countries, and even then the smart ones know it's all BS.

sinbad2's picture

Most Americans don't bother to find out the meaning of words, they just throw them about like cow turds.

Enceladus's picture

Does Lepen have a son in law? France should be ok

sinbad2's picture

Only if the son in law is Jewish.

English herbsman's picture

It's an EU vote, it will be rigged. They will never allow LePen to win, just like Wilders.

The EU blueprint cannot fail for the elite if they ever want to see the American Union, Eurasion Union, Africa Union and the Pacific Union as per their Global Order.

Ghordius's picture

and you forgot your meds. crush some more herbs, you need them

UndertheDRADIS's picture

At this point we all need to head to Colorado for some herb to get through the rest of the year.

sinbad2's picture

You can't compare the Dutch to the French, the Dutch don't do passion, they are like Germans, boring.

The French are passionate, 100 of them conquered the whole of Britain in 1066, and they have risen up against those who would oppress them in the past. The British have never risen up, no matter how oppressive the King.

webmatex's picture

The systems in the west are all run by the same clique, there is little fundamental difference between the U.S., U.K. EU or most Euro countries (two party or proportional representation, republic or sovereign).

The CIA, NATO, Fed, banks, global companys run the show regardless.

The system is Nazi or Bolshevik at heart regardless which "Democracy" you inhabit.

None voters are a majority in most countries (count me in) but recently the protest vote has been used as the citizens last peacful weapon of protest as the whole edifice crumbles around us.

One things for sure, we can't put our trust in "democratic governments" until we insist on having a real one.

That will take more than voting every 4 years.