Japan Prepares For North Korea "Emergency"

Tyler Durden's picture

Judging by the precautionary actions of North Korea's neighbors, the next 48 hours on the Korean peninsula could see substantial volatility, because at the same time as China's largest carrier was said to suspend flights to Pyongyang, the Japanese government has asked the U.S. to provide advance consultation if it is about to launch military action against North Korea, and "has ramped up preparations for emergency situations" according to Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun, including the potential evacuation of some 57,000 Japanese citizens currently in South Korea.

According to the Japanese publication, PM Shinzo Abe stressed that the region is becoming increasingly tense. “[U.S. President Donald Trump] has stated that all options are on the table. It’s a fact tensions are rising,” he said at the Prime Minister’s Office after receiving a written proposal calling for tougher sanctions on North Korea from the Liberal Democratic Party’s Eriko Yamatani, chief of the headquarters for the abduction issue. 

He added that "if an unexpected situation occurs, we’ll ask the United States to cooperate in rescuing the abduction victims."

The Japanese government, like its South Korean peer, has asked for advance consultation regarding any U.S. military action against North Korea during a series of meetings between Japanese and U.S. officials. The U.S. side is said to have responded positively to the request. This is because Japan would need to take appropriate precautions given that, as an ally of Washington, it could be a target for retaliation should the U.S. military attack North Korea, although in order to preserve the "element of surprise" it would not be at all
surprising if Trump proceeded to launching a strike unannounced.

As the infographic below shows, the Japanese government is contemplating five potential emergency responses should a military clash break out between the US and North Korea:

  • Logistical support by Japan's Self-Defense Forces (SDF) in the event of a local conflict
  • Use of force by the SDF in the event of a full scale war
  • Protection of Japanese citizens in South Korea
  • Preparation for armed attacks against Japan
  • Civil protection and response to evacuees

There are three main threats Japan would face if Trump launches an attack: in addition to a potential ballistic missile retaliation; the mass evacuation of thousands of Japanese citizens, and what would likely be a massive refugee onslaught by North Koreans.

Furthermore, recall that under its post-war constitution, Japan is not allowed to have offensive military forces. Its Article 9 declares "the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes." That may copmlicate logistics should war indeed break out in North Korea.

As the Japan Times notes, a North Korean attack on Japan would involve ballistic missiles. The Japanese government has been bolstering defensive measures against ballistic missiles, including making permanent in August 2016 an order to the Self-Defense Forces to intercept and destroy incoming missiles.

There is also the concern of an imminent evacuation:

A difficult issue that would emerge in a contingency on the Korean Peninsula is the rescue and protection of an estimated 57,000 Japanese, including tourists, in South Korea. The government started compiling an evacuation plan in the 1990s and has updated and changed it several times. The government plans to convene a meeting of the four ministers who form the National Security Council to review the strategy for dealing with this issue at an early date.

Security legislation that came into force in March 2016 newly allows the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (SDF) to take steps to protect, rescue and transport Japanese overseas. The Japanese government plans to use government-chartered aircraft and SDF transport vessels for such evacuations, which would be conducted in cooperation with the U.S. military.

A potential complication here is that the governments of Japan and South Korea don't really have the best diplomatic relations, a tension that goes as far back as treatment of Koreans by the Japanese during World War II.  “South Korea’s allergy toward the SDF is still strong, so there has not been much progress regarding concrete talks between the Japanese and South Korean governments,” a senior Defense Ministry official told The Yomiuri Shimbun.

The Japanese government must also figure out how to cope with the huge number of refugees expected to descend on Japan from the Korean Peninsula. They would need to be temporarily accommodated, but it also is possible that North Korean agents would slip into Japan with the intention of striking nuclear power plants, heavily populated areas and other targets. As the Shimbun adds, implementing immigration control procedures for those refugees would not be easy.

* * *

So in case airstrikes do begin, will Japan get involved on the offensive, in breach of its constitution, and a development that would in turn put both China and Russia on edge? 

While in theory, the SDF is supposed to jointly respond with U.S. forces according to how a contingency on the Korean Peninsula would develop, however in practice a Japanese response would likely be limited: senior Defense Ministry official emphasized the difference made by the security legislation, which permit the limited exercise of the right of collective self-defense: “There has been progress regarding Japan-U.S. coordination for role sharing.”

The most realistic SDF activity would be logistics support for the U.S. military. The SDF is permitted to supply ammunition to U.S. forces and refuel ready-to-fly fighter jets, among other measures, in situations that do not constitute an armed attack but are recognized as having an important influence on Japan’s security and safety.

Still, as Shimbun notes, "in a situation that could result in Japan sustaining damage equal in seriousness to a direct attack, the government would recognize that the nation’s survival is under threat and permit the use of force by the SDF. Using the right of collective self-defense, it would become possible for the SDF to defend U.S. ships by counterattacking enemies that attacked them, based on the SDF mobilization order. The SDF could also conduct other operations, including minesweeping in the open sea to remove mines laid by North Korea.

Under such a situation, the government would simultaneously recognize that Japan is at imminent risk of coming under attack while likely starting preparations based on the Civil Protection Law, such as evacuating residents.

Ideally all of the above contingency scenarios never have to be implemented, and the threat of a US attack on North Korea remains just that, eventaully resulting in de-escalation instead of potentially unleashing another regional conflict and what some would saw "world war" in addition to the similar development in the middle-east. Unfortunately, considering how long the neo-con warhawks had been "caged" and prevented from profiting from an all out war, we doubt this optimistic scenario deserves much merit.

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Looney's picture

 

Making America Great Again, one bombed country at a time… Until a primitive North Korean submarine surfaces near New York, Los Angeles, Miami, or Boston and detonates an on-board nuclear bomb.

Are we really sure that the probability of such a response is ZERO?

The most protected areas in the ocean are a few square miles surrounding an aircraft carrier and yet… a while back, a French submarine was able to avoid detection and surface right next to our carrier. The Russians pulled a similar stunt, too.

Are we REALLY sure that the NORKs, in retaliation for the attack on their country, won’t be able to wipe out 5-20 million people?

Looney

Citxmech's picture

China's been able to do it multiple times too.

Zoomorph's picture

To be fair, defeating, bombing, and controlling others actually does make one great.

And 5-20 million people are fairly irrelevant in the bigger picture. It's not like humans are an endangered species!

NugginFuts's picture

It's a good thing all my friends on Facebook are saying nothing will happen. They're usually right about this kind of thing.

Déjà view's picture

CHINESE BOYCOTT SOUTH KOREAN PRODUCTS...

http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Consumers/Chinese-fire-back-at-South-Kor...

BOYCOTT CHINESE PRODUCTS AND TRAVEL! TURN ON HEAT!!

Troll Magnet's picture

Boycott Chinese products?  There will be riots in the streets if you tell stupid proles not to shop at Walmart, K-Mart, Target, etc, etc. 

AVmaster's picture

Interesting little pictures they have on their little flyer thingy...

 

^.^

beemasters's picture

"Until a primitive North Korean submarine surfaces near New York, Los Angeles, Miami, or Boston and detonates an on-board nuclear bomb.
Are we really sure that the probability of such a response is ZERO?"

The journey from NK is too long to be undetectable by any other nation along its path. The risk is too great. If it happens anytime soon, you can be sure it's another false flag operation.

FrozenGoodz's picture

He's approaching a dangerous mesh point where he borderline has to do something ... unless the armada scares the bajeebus outta Kim ... it didn't ... turning around now would be victory for the Norks ... it's not like they're going to stop testing laser beams or w/e their best tech is claimed to be ... what's the end game? Keep some ships at their beach? Doesn't seem to fit the bill

InflammatoryResponse's picture

I would submit that it would be best to allow your enemies to THINK they are super stealthy when in reality they are not.  much easier to manage that way.

 

the pull that stuff in a hot war and your sub goes to the bottom of the sea.

 

J Jason Djfmam's picture

But (sarc) it (sarc) will (sarc) be (sarc) worth (sarc) it. (sarc).

Lumberjack's picture

It gets worse...the subs have GE reactors....

thecondor's picture

ROUND RODS IN SQUARE HOLES?

ElTerco's picture

More business for GE once they go down.

Dirtnapper's picture

DPRK's deisel subs are easy pickings and a logistical nightmare to support past their own shoreline.   Something I will have zero sleep loss over.

bankbob's picture

How do you know that won't happen this afternoon - even if we leave the NORKs alone?  How do you know there won't be a container filled with SARIN gas delivered to every port in the USA?

It is imbecillic to assume the NORKS will be peaceful if they are 'left alone'.  Everytime they want something they threaten to nuke someone.

You need to pay better attention. Hoping for Peace is not bad.  Assuming that Peace will continue is the problem.

froze25's picture

That is true, they instantly go full retard in their threats.

Helix6's picture

With the Neo-Cons in the White House, I don't think anyone's assuming that peace will continue.  This is their moment.

The Chinese are right.  There's now no way to avoid World War III.

Doubleguns's picture

How do we know the Chinese have not agreed to take his little ass to the woodshed. Trumps dinner date may very well have been take this turd down and you can keep North lKorea for your self. Everyone would be safer, happier and the peasants of North Korea might actually have a decent life under China rule. Just wondering....They have been rattling their saber at dipshit almost as much as the US.

 

His allegator mouth may have finally gotten his hummingbird ass in to deep.  He is just to arrogant to notice.

GUS100CORRINA's picture

Looney

I guess if NK didn't have a nuclear bomb, none us would be concerned, correct?

A DESPOT who tortures 10's of thousands of His own citizens cannot be trusted.

Denuclearize NK and the PROBLEM IS SOLVED! QED.

By the way, isn't the NK leader the same DESPOT who executed his own family members? Why are ZH comments and articles so blind to this fact?

There is a phrase for this situation: WILLFUL IGNORANCE.

Think about it!!

Helix6's picture

Played right up to the end.  You can't say propaganda isn't effective.

83_vf_1100_c's picture

Fat boy is not a benevolent leader. The world nor his citizens will weep at his funeral. The Chinese will sleep better truth be told. It is not our job to run N Korea but the obese psychotic keeps launching missiles at Japan and threatening his neighbors and the USA with nuclear hellfire. Do we wait til Seoul or LA gets nuked after he goes on a Tequila bender? Or, institute a regime change now in cooperation with China and S. Korea? Kimmie has the ball, what will he do? I say he lights off a nuke this weekend because he is a spoiled megalomaniac who believes his own bullshit. War will follow.

  The best outcome would be if China takes him out and rehabs the country. Next best, the USA joins in and takes out Kim, his palace, the major .gov leadership and top military offices while the PLA keeps any loyal soldiers busy in the North. Follow it up with massive shipments of food and we will be heroes to the NORK citizens.

  Yes, I am worn out by all the war but done right there is a better ending to this story than what we have wrought in the mideast. I hope.

BarkingCat's picture

Consider that your opinion of North Korea is based upon what you are being told by people you do not trust.

Somehow most people here seem to think that any information about Russia is propaganda and lies wrapped in partial truths but yet information about North Korea is absolutely true.

 

All I know is that liars lie.

eatthebanksters's picture

I say bomb the fuck outta that little loud mouthed fat boy and sink their subs while we are at it.  Let a new regime establish itself with the Chinese watching and the nuke threats from that little fat fuck will be over.

monad's picture

That threat has no teeth. As you know most Americans think that the decimation of any major city would be good because of the FSA occupation. The cities KJU would take out are giant cancer tumors. The only people who'd cry are vampires. Do us a favor Mr. Kim.

Uncle Sugar's picture

I'm okay if they hit SF. Especially with Congress on break

Mungo9000's picture

"I'm not saying we won't get our hair mussed, but I am saying no more than ten to twenty million dead,tops... depending on the breaks." - Gen. Buck Turgidson

bobbbny's picture

The culling of the herd, part one.

All according to NWO Agenda 21 plans.

IntTheLight's picture

So? People in San Fran annoying and anti American anyways.

spyware-free's picture

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. The Norks will be counter-attacking assymetrically. Plan accordingly.

nachochan's picture

The DPRK is going down.  Victory for freedom and liberty 25 million human beings are about to be liberated from orwells nightmare. 

underthevolcano's picture

You are obviously insane, and have not read what China and Russia have said. 

It's YOU who is living in Orwell's Nightmare, tool. Because what ISN'T being said, out of some kind of perverted 'respect' for you, is that you have been scheming and plotting against the NK's since 1950, and so you are 'greatly surprised' by their reluctance to welcome you with open arms.

If you did the same thing to my country I would kill as many of you as I could, wherever I could,

Consuelo's picture

 

 

 I share your sentiments with regard the helpless North Korean citizenry, but this 'liberation' will be anything but 'liberating'.    The military would genocide their own people before allowing them to taste Western-style freedoms.

DPLETTENBERG's picture

It’s really a crap shoot. The wall coming down in East Germany has worked out well and maybe combing North and South Korea would also. But it is still a big gamble. There is this thing called unintended consequences.

BarkingCat's picture

Tell that to East Germans who are now forced to deal with the flood of 3rd world migrants.

 

TheLastTrump's picture

Norks are fucking pitiless murdering bastards. Their prisons are full of Christians & other innocents. Torture, rape, starvation, death. Sickening. Worse then Stalin or Mao except scale.

 

Get some Mr. President. Fuck the Norks.

underthevolcano's picture

So, let's see. Japan brutally occupied the Korean Peninsula for 50 years, murdering thousands, and destroying thousands more in work camps, whore houses and what have you, but they are the potential 'victims' here. I don't think so.

Mine Is Bigger's picture

So, you think you should suffer if your ancestors wronged some people? Do you realize there will be no end, if we continue to think that past wrongs give victims' descendants some kind of rights to revenge. This line of thinking just creates an unending cycle.

TheLastTrump's picture

you seem to have a problem separating past from present, not to mention cause & effect

 

does it soothe you to know that most or all parties to the Korean occupation are dead?

BarkingCat's picture

Japan will be providing logistical support for the attack on North Korea.

If I was North Korean I would certainly view them as equally guilty.

coast1's picture

I think most here know 911 was mossad, cia,saudi arabia etc...we forget the devastation, 3 buildings down, all the people from many different countries dead, people jumping out windows etc...instead of showing some stupid bomb explode to show their power, they should show 911....seriously people, if they would destroy these buildings and kill so many people, including the first responders, dont you all realize how evil they are?  do they have some kinda control over Trump or did he sell out?  I dont know but Eisenhower said it all in his farewell speech....Well, he did not say it all but he gave good hints to get us thinkingl

flaminratzazz's picture

China: "we can easily afford to lose 250 million people, can you?"

Yukon Cornholius's picture

Indeed. They have about that many permanent bachelors (men who will never find brides). What better way to put them to use then as connon fodder for a nuclear exchange? All angles have been thought of.

Jacksons Ghost's picture

Japan is all in on War, what the fuck do they have to possibly lose.  They are so far in debt they are running out of zeros. 

Imagine if the eat a third nuke.  Only two have been dropped in anger and they got hit with both.  Place is cursed.

flaminratzazz's picture

Maybe Korea can nuke Fukushima and fix it!!

big fvkin sarc rite thar..

bankbob's picture

To Japan, being nuked is not just a hypothetical excercise.

Consuelo's picture

 

 

 The 'Conventional' fire-bombing was an order of magnitude more devastating for Japan.   It was the 'shock value' of the nuclear explosions however, that stick in people's minds.

williambanzai7's picture

This isn't Kansas Toto...

flaminratzazz's picture

Looks to be the twilight zone..