Professor Who First Predicted Trump's Victory Just Predicted His Impeachment As Well

Tyler Durden's picture

After his stunning defeat of Hillary Clinton in November, President-elect Trump took the time out of his transition planning to write a letter to American University Professor, Allan Lichtman, congratulating him for being the first to predict the outcome of the election even when polls declared Hillary a 'yuge' favorite: "Professor - Congrats - good call."

That said, Trump may not be so enthusiastic about Lichtman's next big prediction which he spells out in a new, soon-to-be-released book entitled "The Case for Impeachment."  Within the new book, Lichtman, who is not a Trump fan despite his prediction, “explains how Trump threatens the institutions and traditions that have made America safe and free for 230 years." 

Unfortunately, unlike his novel approach to predicting presidential elections, Lichtman's "Case for Impeachment" seems to be a disappointing regurgitation of tired mainstream media narratives including treason with Russia (an argument Trump has pretty much rendered obsolete over the past week or so) and emoluments violations.  Per Politico:

Lichtman’s list of possible offenses that could get Trump to that point are familiar: charges of treason with Russia, abuse of power and emoluments violations. Lichtman also cites now-Attorney General Jeff Sessions, then a senator, who argued that a president could be impeached for offenses committed before he took office. Among those potential offenses, Lichtman lists Trump’s housing violations, charity problems, potential violations of the Cuba embargo and Trump University.


Imagine, Lichtman writes, if Trump gets Congress to lift sanctions against Russia by lying about some promise made by Vladimir Putin, or shakes the economy by lying about Bureau of Labor Statistics employment numbers.


It’s all part of a brief — designed to be damning — tour through Trump’s history. It includes section headings like “Trump Towers Become Vacant Lots” and “Lying His Way to the Presidency.” It eventually leads Lichtman to the conclusion that Trump might serve himself up for impeachment: “Trump’s disregard for lying in sworn testimony, examined in the context of the Bill Clinton precedent, shows how Trump’s opponents could set an impeachment trap for him through a civil lawsuit.”

Of course, Hillary and Obama were not guilty of any of the alleged offenses listed above...certainly Hillary couldn't be accused of having "charity problems."



Fortunately for the Trump admin, Lichtman has some suggestions on how to avoid impeachment as well, namely pursue a liberal agenda.

Lichtman’s advice to Trump to avoid his prediction is a checklist that includes divesting, supporting the Paris Climate accord, using a fact-checker and treating women with respect. He also dares Trump to “add a shrink to the White House physicians.”


“Opponents will challenge your decision-making abilities and claim that they were right all along about your temperamental unfitness for the presidency, yet you have survived and thrived by defying the conventional political wisdom. Why not do it again?”

For those who missed it, below is our note on Lichtman's original Trump prediction.

* * *

American University Professor, Allan Lichtman, has accurately predicted every U.S. presidential election since 1984 and now he's calling 2016 for Trump.  Lichtman uses a system he calls the "Keys to the White House" which he developed after studying every election cycle from 1860 through 1980. 

Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" are the following 13 true/false questions, where an answer of "true" always favors the re-election of the incumbent party, in this case, Hillary.  If, however, the answer to six or more of the 13 keys is "false" then the incumbent loses.

Here is how Lichtman answered his "13 Keys to the White House":

1.  Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

Lichtman Answer:  False - "They got crushed."


2.  Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

Lichtman Answer:  True


3.  Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Lichtman Answer:  False


4.  Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Lichtman Answer:  False - "In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 percent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven."


5.  Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

Lichtman Answer:  True


6.  Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Lichtman Answer:  True


7.  Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

Lichtman Answer:  False - "No major policy change in Obama's second term like the Affordable Care Act."


8.  Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

Lichtman Answer:  True


9.  Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Lichtman Answer:  True


10.  Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Lichtman Answer:  True


11.  Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Lichtman Answer:  False - "No major smashing foreign policy success."


12.  Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Lichtman Answer:  False - "Hillary Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt."


13.  Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Lichtman Answer:  True

We would probably be more likely to argue that the answer to almost every one of those questions is "False" but we'll take Lichtman's word for it. 

But, while Lichtman predicted a Trump victory, he did hedge the prediction by pointing out that Trump is unlike any candidate this country has seen since 1860. 

"Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860."

Here is his full interview with The Washington Post:

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nyse's picture

SHIIIIIILLL!!! Jk as if he's not gonna get impeached and as if it means anything..

Manthong's picture

..anything for a buck.

Looney's picture


No matter what happens to Trump, the next election’s winner will be a Bernie-on-steroids Commie.

I ain’t voting for the flip-flopping piece of shit no more.  ;-)


larz's picture

I lost my hope for change Trump the "outsider " got schooled 

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

I'm pretty sure Prof. Lichtman already had his stopped-clock moment.

new game's picture

or humpty trumpty is about to fall off an imaginary wall...

Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

Sorry boomercucks, patriarchy and so much more is coming back bigtime.

Trump is just the first wave and it doesn't really matter whether he is a neocon jew lover or not. White people have spoken, and they voted their genepool.

Syrin's picture

I predicted Trump woild win back when there were still ten people in the primaries, and I predict he will get re-elected in a landslide.  His agenda is still getting implemented, and the media TOLD US two months ago their goal was to turn his base against him.   he will get results, they will be what we wanted, and he will remind people what he accomplished.  Hell, the Supreme Court justice alone is worth it.   The dude has a huge ego and wants to be remembered as the guy who saved america.   He has a long history of winning, unlike Obama and the democrat party.

Consuelo's picture



The media hasn't turned Donald Trump's base against him.   Unless of course, you imply that his 'base' is as dumb as a box of rocks.

FireBrander's picture

Now that Trump has resumed spreading "Freedom and Democracy", the R's won't impeach him.

However, if Trump continues to throw his base under the bus...the D's will take over Congress; and the Syria airport bombing alone is enough to impeach him.

evoila's picture

Sorry Syrin .... people who were with him, have already lost hope and don't give 2 shits about Trump, or his neocon agenda. He has already proven to be a con artist, and he's barely a few months in.

He's no agent of change, and now the people have resolutely lost hope in this country. They lost most of it under Obama, but now that he's bombed Syria, and appointed McMaster and a bunch of others with neocon ideology, including his Son-in-Law, to high posts, nobody believes his crap, nor that the US will ever change.

Game over. Put a fork in him. 

AVmaster's picture

If he would just let shit settle down for a while...


We've been thru 8-10 years of hell, we could use a break from high profile political bullshit for a while...

bamawatson's picture

 John Podesta has a relative named Brian Podesta who has Top Secret clearance from the U.S. government and who is currently working for the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children as a Senior Analyst

fx's picture

one or two months ago the Donald had a huge base that would have fought an impeachment tooth and nail. Now? Only some village idiots would.

Trump, Pence... who cares, neocon puppets, all of them.

Trump's weakness is his lack of focus and his lack of knowledge and his lack of support in D.C. So he falls back on a$$hole Kushner and his princess Ivanka. Both clueless. But kushner is an ardent servant of Bibi and Ivanka an ardent servant of mofo Kushner.  The dream is over and the movement is dead on arrival.

Fvck you, Mr -not-my-president-anymore!

Koba the Dread's picture

I see you have one down vote. . .from some village idiot.

Koba the Dread's picture

I just finished reading The Franklin Scandal last night. With Podesta's kin in charge, I'm sure those missing children are quite safe. . .from ever being found.

gilhgvc's picture

Amen. And I voted for him

veritas semper vinces's picture

Read The Saker to see that all the Rabbis signed a letter addressed to the Donald asking him for war against Syria. Is there any doubt now who is behind all this? Whay say you Goyim?



Rabbis Urge President Trump To “Act Decisively” In Syria 2924 Views 46 Comments

Dear President Trump,

We write to you with angst just days before the Passover holiday when the Jews escaped the oppressive tyranny of Pharaoh in Egypt. The Assad regime in Syria appears to have conducted a nerve gas attack against Syrian civilians yesterday. At least 58 civilians have been killed in the attack, marking the worst chemical attack in Syria since the August 21, 2013 chemical massacre. We believe that a strong response from the U.S. is essential to stopping these war crimes.

This attack is a violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions prohibiting the Assad regime from using chemical weapons passed under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter. Local medical workers observed that victims were gasping for air, and video footage from the area showed dozens of dead bodies with no apparent external injuries.

Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin called the attack a “stain on humanity,” and urged the international community to “join together to bring an end to this murderous insanity and make sure these types of images will never again be seen anywhere in the world” and called on “world leaders and the heads of the world powers to act now and stop the criminal murdered taking in place in Syria at the hands of the Assad regime and act to have chemical weapons removed from the Syrian territory.”

Holocaust survivor Elie Wiesel said in 2012, “the so-called civilized world isn’t even trying to stop the massacre. Its leaders issue statements, but the bloodshed continues. A situation that has lasted 13-odd months is not about to end.”

The Assad regime will not cease these brutal attacks unless it faces the threat of serious military repercussions such as airstrikes against air bases associated with chemical weapons and suspected storage facilities.

We therefore urge you to fully appreciate the importance of this moment and to act decisively to avoid dire consequences. Specifically, we recommend that you adopt the following measures:

• Verify, with the various departments in your administration, that today’s attacks in Syria were indeed carried out with a nerve agent.

This would mean that the Assad regime still possesses nerve gas and therefore did not comply with the September 2013 chemical agreement.

• Order targeted airstrikes on Assad regime air facilities, jetways, and fix-wing and rotary aircraft so as to prevent the regime from carrying out further chemical attacks with nerve agents.

If today’s horrific atrocity is not met with a firm response, Assad likely has more attacks planned on an even larger scale. The world today is looking to your administration for leadership.


Rabbi Alison Adler
Rabbi Daniel Askenazi
Rabbi Justus Baird
Rabbi Ben Berger
Rabbi Jonathan Biatch
Rabbi Jason Bonder
Rabbi Jill Borodin
Rabbi Mark Borovitz
Rabbi Daniel Bouskila
Rabbi Debra S. Cantor
Rabbi Mari Chernow
Rabbi Yosi Cirlin
Rabbi Chuck Davidson
Rabbi Ellen Weinberg Dreyfus
Rabbi Menashe East
Rabbi Judith Edelstein
Rabbi Dr. Zev Farber
Cantor Rebecca Joy Fletcher
Rabbi Avidan Freedman
Rabbi Ruth Gais
Rabbi Rachel Gartner
Rabbi Daniel Goodman
Rabbi Mel Gottlieb,Ph.D.
Rabbi Maralee Gordon
Rabbi Steve Greenberg
Rabbi Dr. Yitz Greenberg
Rabbi Arielle Hanien
Rabbi Ari D. Hart
Rabbi Dr. Richard Hidary
Rabbi Sarit Horwitz
Rabbi Rachel Isaacs
Rabbi David Jaffe
Rabbi Marisa James
Rabbi David Kalb
Rabbi Jeremy Kalmanofsky
Rabbi Yosef Kanefsky
Rabbi Elana Kanter
Rabbi David Kasher
Cantor Dr. Evan Kent
Rabbi Riqi Kosovske
Rabbi Emma Kippley-Ogman
Rabbi Sharon Kleinbaum
Rabbi Andy Koren
Rabbi Eugene Korn
Rabbi Dr. Robert L. Kravitz
Rabbi Daniel Landes
Rabbi Aaron Leibowitz
Rabbi Darby Jared Leigh
Rabbi Joshua Lesser
Rabbi Joshua Levine Grater
Rabbi Leah Lewis
Rabbi John A. Linder
Rabbi Andrea London
Rabbi Yehoshua Looks
Rabbi Marc Margolius
Rabbi Ariel Evan Mayse
Rabbi Avram Mlotek
Rabbi Dan Moskovitz
Rabbi Kehillah Dina Najman
Rabbi David Novak
Rabbi Micha Odenheimer
Rabbi Haim Ovadia
Rabbi Laura Owens
Rabbi Shuli Passow
Rabbi Robin Podolsky
Rabbi Aaron Potek
Rabbi Aviva Richman
Rabbi Tracee Rosen
Rabbi Scott B. Saulson
Rabbi Robert Scheinberg
Rabbi Hanan Schlesinger
Rabbi David Seidenberg
Rabbi Chaim Seidler-Feller
Rabbi Dean Shapiro
Rabbi Bonnie Sharfman
Rabbi Garth Silberstein
Rabbi Daniel Raphael Silverstein
Rabbi Suzanne Singer
Rabbi Jenny Solomon
Rabbi Robin S. Sparr
Rabbi Joseph Telushkin
Rabbi Victor Urecki
Rabbi Devin Villarreal
Rabbi Elyse Wechterman
Rabbi Simkha Y. Weintraub
Rabbi Ora Weiss
Rabbi Zari Weiss
Rabbi Dr. Shmuly Yanklowitz
Rabbi Shawn Zevit
Rabbi Jill Berkson Zimm

IntTheLight's picture

Actually I'm finding his dropping bombs everywhere rather funny. Maybe he's trying to get rid of inventory before obsolescence.

fx's picture

It's keynes in purity. Digging holes and filling them. These were C!A-financed tunnels. Which are now getting destroyed by pentagon-financed bombs. Same as in Syria, where C!A-backed terrorists fight pentagon-backed terrorists. peak insanity, we thought. But here comes the Donald/McMasters throwing in boots on the ground to make the mess ever greater again.

Koba the Dread's picture

Picture yourself or your loved ones under one of those bombs and see how funny it seems then, dolt.

Uchtdorf's picture

Trump has a long history of getting bailed out so my definition of winning may be different than yours. Wilbur Ross, now Commerce Secretary and former Rothschild banker, put together some cash and saved Trump at least once. Now Ross has got his own Cabinet position. Good work if you can get it. Me? I'm not in the right club, apparently.

bearwinkle's picture

I predicted Trump would win before he even threw his hat into the ring.

NurseRatched's picture

Unfortunately, stopped-clocks have two correct moments per day. Maybe this clown gets two, also.

AGuy's picture

"Unfortunately, stopped-clocks have two correct moments per day. Maybe this clown gets two, also."

I think before Trump abandon his "Drain the Swamp" Agenda there was a real risk of impeachment. However since Trump pulled a full 180 turn, Impeachment seems very unlikely. Since his book/analysis was done prior to Trump's 180, The professors analysis was likely correct.

There is the possibility of a two other options:
1. Trump dies before his term is up.
2. USA starts WW3 and the world gets Nuked.

HRClinton's picture

Why does he look like a young Leonard Nimoy?

bearwinkle's picture

You had your eyes checked lately? You really HRC, maybe that explains the vision.


JRobby's picture

He looks like he could be a FED Governor? That same confused looking face. Can he "say nothing using very technical laguage phrasing"? If so, He's a shoe in.

ejmoosa's picture

The swamp water seeps through the skin and affected all who contacted it save one person: Ron Paul

evoila's picture

and Tulsi Gabbard. Based on his position on Montenegro, I might even include Rand Paul. 

Uchtdorf's picture

Are you sure about her?

Membership Roster

(as of April 14, 2017)

Download the print version of the membership roster as it appears in the 2015 Annual Report.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z 


Gabbard, Tulsi

BarkingCat's picture

You forgot Dennis Kucinich.


I am sure there are more but the swamp media never mention them so they toil in unanimity.

Koba the Dread's picture

Perhaps they toil in annonymity. I dout they toil in unanimity.

AGuy's picture

"The swamp water seeps through the skin and affected all who contacted it save one person: Ron Paul"

and his Son Rand. I think Rand would have done a much better job than anyone that ran for the 2016 presidential race.

Koba the Dread's picture

Yeah, Rand would do a much better job except that Rand didn't win the presidency because he couldn't have won the presidency even if nominated. He didn't win the nomination because he couldn't have won the nomination because he didn't have the political (read "evil") horsepower to win the nomination. So. ..woulda, coulda, shoulda! "If we had some ham, we could have ham and eggs. . .if we had some eggs." (Popeye)

Open your eyes: We are still in Kansas, Toto! All that Oz shit was just a wanker's dream.

flaminratzazz's picture

you taking the ball with you?

Creepy_Azz_Crackaah's picture

If leftards take over, yes.  Republicans, no matter how fucked up they are, won't do it.

Koba the Dread's picture

"Leftards?" What a rich vocabulary you have! Consider also "Rightards" I submit that there are equally as many rightards as leftards in America. The secret is to be neigher leftard nor rightard. Just be a thinking human being. We thining human beings are known a "deplorables". Forget the 19th century left/right fake dichotomy. Let's bring it closer to the bone: It's us vs. them. We're the Deplorables! Everyone else is them.

The Wizard's picture

People who write articles for the book of this doofus may be getting part of the royalty. I predicted Trumpster would win and they didn't write about me and my future predictions. Hell, Michael Moore predicted Trump would win. The guy is writing a book on behalf of the Deep State to keep the pressure on him in an attempt to get him impeached.

Now to the book:

What institutions today are valid and applicable to the founding principles 230 years ago is Trump destroying. Most of the destruction of the founding principles has come from ignorance which fails to write about in his book.

IntTheLight's picture

People tribally related to this author are the ones who destroyed our institutions.

Darktarra's picture

Just more fake news ... nothing here.  Now onto sports... 

Trump 2020! 

Syrin's picture

Dude can't always be right.

GUS100CORRINA's picture


This entire article and the discourse with this man is totally and utterly demonic.

This GUY did not predict anything, It was GOD's plan all along and this idiot just happened to pick the right side.

And of course all of this is occuring during the celebration of Jesus Christ's death, burial and resurrection.

SATAN is working overtime!!

The central planners's picture

The only way to see Trump impeached its if he flip flops again and harshly faces the swamp otherwise theres no probabilities.

j0nx's picture

I dare congress to impeach him. Civil war 2.0 wouldn't be far behind. They think that BLM was causing problems? They aint seen nothing yet when flyover country and the forgotten middle class American gets spun up. Word of advice to you neocons who are thinking it: DON'T.

meditate_vigorously's picture

What an arsehole. Institution and traditions that blah blah 230 years? If we had any of that left, we would not be needing to talk about any of this.

Those institutions are compromised, the traditions are dead. Cultural rot from mass media, and the communist takeover of academia were key.

The democratic election of senators and the citizens united case allowing our politicians to be purchased are just some of the MAJOR problems - SOME.

The Republic became and empire begging in WW1 and the Empire is in decline. Empires burn hot and bright and short. Only homogeneous nations can endure.

Skeero's picture

Pretty sure a lot of people predicted him winning. Just not msm.