Europe Gets Its Doomsday Scenario

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

The rise of French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has made a lot of people nervous since, among many other things, she’s in favor of leaving the eurozone, which would pretty much end the common currency. But since polling has shown her making the two-person run-off round but then losing to a mainstream candidate, the euro-elites haven’t seen any reason to panic.

Here, for instance, is a chart based on February polling that shows Le Pen getting the most votes in the first round, but then – when mainstream voters coalesce around her opponent – losing by around 60% – 40%. The establishment gets a bit of a scare but remains firmly in power, no harm no foul.

Then came the past month’s debates in which a previously-overlooked communist candidate named Jean-Luc Mélenchon shook up the major candidates by pointing out how corrupt they all are. Voters liked what they heard and a significant number of them shifted his way.

Mélenchon: Far-leftist surges in French polls, shocking the frontrunners

(France 24) – In a presidential campaign with more twists than a French braid, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s sudden play to become France’s third man — or better — is shaking up the race.

 

With ten days to go before April 23’s first round vote, the colourful, cultured and cantankerous far-leftist has the frontrunners on the defensive.

 

Suddenly, the grumpy far-leftist — a showman in a Chairman Mao jacket who openly admired late Venezuelan populist leader Hugo Chavez — holds the mantle of France’s most popular politician. In the course of a whirlwind month, the 65-year-old Mélenchon surged nine spots to number one in weekly glossy Paris Match’s opinion poll. A full 68 percent of those surveyed hold “favourable opinions” of the far-left candidate, the poll by the Ifop-Fiducial firm showed.

 

On some polls, Mélenchon has now bypassed embattled conservative François Fillon for third place in a presidential race that will see the top two advance to the May 7 run-off.

 

An Ipsos poll on Tuesday put Mélenchon a half-point ahead of Fillon for third place in the race, behind National Front leader Marine Le Pen and the independent centrist Emmanuel Macron. With 18.5 percent, the far-leftist has gleaned 4.5 percent in just two weeks, with Macron and Le Pen tied on 24 percent.

 

Mélenchon wants to quit NATO, the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and block European trade treaties with the United States and Canada. He promises a French referendum on whether to stick with the reworked EU he is pledging to negotiate or leave the bloc altogether.

Here’s a chart from the Washington Post showing just how tight the race for the run-off spots has become:

It’s still unlikely that both Le Pen and Mélenchon will make the run-off, but based on the above chart it’s suddenly possible. This would be the cultural equivalent of a Trump – Bernie Sanders race in the US, but with – believe it or not — even higher stakes because both Le Pen and Mélenchon would threaten the existence of both the euro and the European Union, the world’s biggest economic entity.

So it almost doesn’t matter who wins that run-off. Just the prospect of having one or the other in charge would tank the euro and set off a stampede out of Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds, possibly doing irreparable damage to the eurozone before the eventual winner even takes power.

To repeat the theme of this series, when you screw up a country’s finances you take its politics along for the ride.

In France, the right feels betrayed by open borders and excessive regulation,

 

the left by an unaccountable elite that always seems to profit at everyone else’s expense.

 

And both sides suffer from soaring debt at every level of society.

So if a fringe candidate doesn’t win this time around, the mainstream will just make an even bigger mess, raising the odds of a fringe victory next a few years hence.

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Haus-Targaryen's picture
Sacrebleu

Please dear God let this happen. 

Troy Ounce's picture

 

Problem is. There is no God. There is no justice. You're on your own.

Haus-Targaryen's picture

Problem is, there is. 

Make peace with your maker.  When this finally does kick off, there will be plenty of people saying: 

Möge Gott uns Beistehen.  

Arnold's picture

Dear Id:
Let me live another day..hour..second?

--Ego

MalteseFalcon's picture

"So if a fringe candidate doesn’t win this time around, the mainstream will just make an even bigger mess, raising the odds of a fringe victory next a few years hence."

The underlying assumption to that statement is that the process of voting "works" at some level.

Also, one man's "mess" is another man's plan.

floomby's picture

One man's mess is more likely another man's incompetence.

How can you openly admire Hugo Chavez? He ran Venezuela into the ground.

BarkingCat's picture

Plenty of people follow the Kardashians too.

Haus-Targaryen's picture

Your point being and relevance to the discussion at hand? 

Strizzi's picture

elections are some kind of show for the plebs, their real rulers are not on the ballot card,

 

BarkingCat's picture

My point was that just because a lot of people follow something, in this case some religion that originated in Goatfuckinstsn, does not make it worthy consideration. 

 

If you really want to embrace your ancient German roots, at least embrace your native religion and not one what was forced on your ancestors at an edge of a blade.

besnook's picture

make peace with yourself. it is a lot more effective and has a certain reality about it.

Troy Ounce's picture

If it assists you to feel better and keep sane when TSHTF? Good for you.

You might want to ask the people of the MH17 & 370 if there was any divine intervention to their cries for help.

Control your breathing might be a better advice.

 

BlindMonkey's picture

Atheist-aspie gonna Aspie.  

 

Give it a rest already. 

new game's picture

i thought at the fight club god was left outside the ring for the observers? right? ok, then god is my punching glove and a right hook to deliver the message. lol...

Greenspazm's picture

Which god do you mean? Zeus? YAHWEH? Allah? Jeezus's Dad? Shit out of luck if you're a Buddhist, or if you put your money on the wrong one.

 

Arnold's picture

Hey, Shiva comes, bitchez.

Diatom's picture

Yes there's no justice...But there's revenge...

Make good use of it...

 

Der Libertäre's picture

I have no idea what to imagine after Marine would be elected.

I remember Trump saying "I won't let you down!" - I am German and my soul begged to that man, wanted to believe his words. I just have had one rough awakening after another. Is this the same man who started some months ago? Who gave me so much hope for world peace?

I guess the problems are so skyhigh that when realizing even the Trumps of this world fart for fear.

So I am with your view of course, but if Marine fails like Trump, Europe will be lost. All my future plans would be toast.

And one word to the God discussion here:

I am so very afraid of the Euro experiment, my savings are out.

I am so very afraid of the muslim experiment, I am out.

So I acted according to my beliefs - but I am still afraid of that big change which must come and will get so many by surprise. I fear for the good people who deserve better. But one needs to rest/forgive oneself and yes, there is a point when you give yourself into destiny or God. I did what I could and now help us God.

Arnold's picture

Suddenly, the grumpy far-leftist — a showman in a Chairman Mao jacket who openly admired late Venezuelan populist leader Hugo Chavez — holds the mantle of France’s most popular politician. In the course of a whirlwind month, the 65-year-old Mélenchon surged nine spots to number one in weekly glossy Paris Match’s opinion poll. A full 68 percent of those surveyed hold “favourable opinions” of the far-left candidate, the poll by the Ifop-Fiducial firm showed.

Bernie!!!!Bernie!!!!Bernie!!!!Bernie!!!!Bernie!!!!Bernie!!!!
Bernie!!!!Bernie!!!!Bernie!!!!Bernie!!!!Bernie!!!!Bernie!!!!

Sudden Debt's picture

If they can't rig it, they're fucked.

I hope Le Pen wins or France loses.

And the rest of Europe needs her to win also.

And the elites keep ordering pole after pole like a lemming who refreshes his screen when he sees his entire stock portfolio crash but who can't decide what to do about it.

 

BarkingCat's picture

Melechon looks like a great alternative.  Aside from his far left moniker, I cannot help but fully agree with the positions that are listed here.

Even if he is a full on communist his election might be what can save Europe and definitely better than the status quo EU ass lickers.

perkunas's picture

I suspect he is nothing more then a plant, to apease the French. They had their chance now they will pay.

Strizzi's picture

he is pro sandnigger immigration as all leftists are 

 

EuroPox's picture

Hollande is so unpopular he is not even standing again.  He is the main reason for the collapse of the traditional parties and the disgust of ordinary French people with politicians ... but he is not even mentioned in the above article.  Throw in a bit of BREXIT and Trumpism and it is no wonder that France is going to elect someone not from traditional politics.  

Vive Le Pen and goodbye EU.

Sandmann's picture

Really ? Hollande ? You mean Chirac was wonderful as was Sarkozy ? It was just Hollande ?

new game's picture

just another tyranny, voting is obsolete. bankers will win in the end-way it is. with france being some kinda wild card and a history of lopping heads off, maybe it will be different, lol...

dark fiber's picture

The problem is Trump is working against the European right.  He is flip flopping on everything, he has reversed himself even o Iran, he is turning out to be a joke.

MadRunner's picture

Lots to be made in Forex right now :)

dark fiber's picture

The place to be right now is gold, where you can see it and hold it.

BritBob's picture

Brexit

Fair to say that the majority of the people in Britain were happy to join an economic union with free trade, but not a political union. Who wants to be ruled by Brussels?

There is a trade imbalance in favour of the European Union so it is in the interest of the EU to make amicable arrangements with the United Kingdom. What's more, the UK can do its own trade deals on a one-to-one basis instead of having the EU to deal 27 member states before it makes a trade deal.

The UK will opt for a hard Brexit especially when one country (or part of a country in Belgium) can stall negotiations for so long. Spain could act in a similar fashion over Gibraltar and has the cheek to maintain its Gibraltar sovereignty claim. Claim?

Gibraltar - Some Relevant International Law: https://www.academia.edu/10575180/Gibraltar_-_Some_Relevant_Internationa...

 

So it looks like a quick hasta luego !

Sandmann's picture

In mid-1950s there was a debate in the Adenauer Cabinet between Ludwig Erhard who wanted a European Free Trade Area as EEC and Walter Hallstein wgho favoured a Customs Union. I think BritBob you were deluded if you ever thought the EU was EFTA when it has been ab initio a Customs Union

Ghordius's picture

of course the rest-EU(27) will continue to trade with the Brexited UK. the question is only on what terms, BritBob

by default, without any FTA (Free Trade Agreement) aka "Hard Brexit", it would be at WTO terms

meanwhile, any better terms then that will need... goodwill. from the other 27 other countries

and for that goodwill... let's put it this way:

the Brexit Referendum was a domestic political affair with a simple Remain/Leave question. like playing poker

the way to the new deal between the UK and the EU27 will be more something like chess, or bridge (with 27 "opponents", note)

full of complex, detailed rules and thorny questions. and not much bluffing possible, if at all

like if the european medicine agency stays in the UK or not, or if it will continue to be the UK's regulator for medicines or not

oh, and lies, like in the Brexit referendum campaign? forget about them, those negotiators from the 27 are not going to be swayed by such rubbish. quite the opposite, the more the UK tabloid will continue with them, the worse that goodwill will go down south

stop the lies, and there is a better chance for an equally/equitable outcome of those negotiations (brexitlies.com)

just a friendly hint, note

Bank_sters's picture

Gordo, your experiment in super state facism is dead. 

Jubal Early's picture

Gordius's utopia is not fascist since there is no EU "Nation" for "Nationalism" to take hold of, and the EU is against the survival and supremacy of any one of the European races.  The EU is just anti-white and pro-cabal.  Just like the original USSR.  Fascism and Communism share many of their violent characteristics, but in this case Ghordius is clearly just a jack booted marxist thug masquerading as a European "liberal".  The EU stinks as foul as Weimar Berlin, and the show is just as grotesque.

Jubal Early's picture

"better terms then that will need... goodwill. from the other 27 other countries"

I think you mean 27 EU slave states whose peoples' opinions are irrelevant to the EU kommisariat in Brussels.  The real terms of Brexit are being negotiated in Jerusalem.

Ghordius's picture

what you call the "kommissariat" is a bunch of commissioners, one from every country that is member

they are selected by their countries' governments, then there is a vote for the whole package (i.e. the EU Commission) in the EU Council and then they have to get a confidence vote by the EU Parliament

meanwhile, if the EU Council does not like how they are doing... they propose a new commission instead

and the same is with the EU Parliament, if they don't like what the commission is doing, they withdraw their confidence, by a... vote of no confidence, as one particularly troublesome commission already experienced in the past

meanwhile, you are talking about the EU, which is "a thorn in the eye" of Tel Aviv/("Jerusalem"), for example because of the "Made in Palestine" labels which are allowed in the EU

a lot of EU countries are NATO members, too. which is a defense/military alliance which does not include Israel, nor the KSA

and watch the UK Brexiting. a "fugitive" "slave state"? 

OverTheHedge's picture

That goodwill, or lack thereof, works both ways. You are STILL under the impression that Brexit was about trade, when it was only and ever about sovereignty, irrespective of the many lies spread by all sides.

You seem to believe that the EU can calmly wait for the recalcitrant child to come running back to all-knowing mummy, when actually, it is more a case of the EU having to prove its case as being worthy. Not the other way around.

Apologies if this goes against your world view.

Ghordius's picture

OverTheHedge, re: "Brexit about trade"... you are replying to my comment featuring this part:

(Brexit is about stuff...) "full of complex, detailed rules and thorny questions. and not much bluffing possible, if at all. like if the european medicine agency stays in the UK or not, or if it will continue to be the UK's regulator for medicines or not"

again: Brexit is full of things like where the medicine agencies or the finance/banking regulators will be. see what David Davies said about that, recently. he is the "Brexit" secretary of the UK, you know?

yes, I agree that Brits voting intentions were about sovereignty. good for them. no, this goes not against my worldview. no, you are not replying to me, if you don't even read what I am writing or project issues I am not mentioning in my words

Ghordius's picture

"...among many other things, she (Marine Le Pen) is in favor of leaving the eurozone, which would pretty much end the common currency. But since polling has shown her making the two-person run-off round but then losing to a mainstream candidate, the euro-elites haven’t seen any reason to panic."

I always have to laugh when I see support for the EUR as being something "elitist", making supporters part of the "elite"

that would make support for former monetary alliances, be that of the gold-backed currencies in the 19th Century or the Latin Monetary Union a thing of the elites, too? are... goldbugs "elite", too? is the support for let's say Texas or California to stay in the dollarzone "elitist", too? anyway...

my point: why supporters of the EUR like me aren't running and screaming in circles because of Marine Le Pen is...

....what Marine Le Pen said herself, and the undeniable French logic behind her words

because she is not a light-weight politician promising something she can't hold ever. and if you read what she said, you'll note that she calculates years to get France to the position where leaving the eurozone (i.e. re-instating a French Franc) is even an option

further, she makes it contingent to a Franco-German discussion beforehand. and so she plans, even if elected, to start that discussion after the German general/federal elections in September

sorry, folks, but there is something we could call "politics for grownups", and Marine Le Pen is playing in that league

so yes, Marine Le Pen could win... and become one of the better French Presidents

so yes, Marine Le Pen could win... and offer a different option to the EUR to the French People

did I mention she clearly stated that such things would entail preparation, first, and then referenda?

Haus-Targaryen's picture

Do you classify European Federalists as "elitists"? 

How do you classify the group of people behind the western "Liberal Democracy" movement currently bombing a half dozen nation, importing millions of third worlders into Europe, paying into the current ponzi scheme which is the Western Entitlement system and suppressing the AG and AU markets? 

Or in your mind are these independent events, and the "elite" group of people often referred to is simply a construct of the weak-minded? 

Genuinely curious.

Ghordius's picture

no, I don't. then european federalists are a quite diverse bunch

a little example: most Poles I know in the UK are relatively poor, relatively well educated and working very hard, sending money back to the families in Poland, etc. and... most of them are quite hard-core EU-federalists

after the UK exits, we will see how much of that bombing is US-UK led, and how much is... not. the same for all that anti-Russian sentiment

as a reminder, at the last G7 meeting the UK's foreign minister was proposing further sanctions of the EU vs Russia. this time something real, not cosmetic. the Italian foreign minister and prime minister said "thanks, but no, thanks", to which the German foreign minister and the French foreign minister agreed in choir

where is gold suppressed? where are those two western cabals called "markets" aka "western gold exchanges"? where are the new up-and-coming challengers? (for the lazy: the latter are in China)

as a reminder, the EUR is... "gold neutral". it is built for the eventuality that the whole world goes back to "gold backed"

(see the very first line of assets on the ECB's balance sheet. "barbaric", Dr. Krugman would say)

Haus-Targaryen's picture

Interesting anecdote. 

Most Poles I know in Germany hate the EU with a fervor and see it as the Germans taking over the continent again. I assure them Germany is getting ass-pounded with the construct just as badly as anyone, but alas they don't see it.  

I even had one Polish chap tell me that Germany us using the EUR and the EU funding mechanisms to cause a split in Poland along Poland A/B lines to:

- Regain lost territory; and

- Replenish lost population

I tell you -- the Poles are interesting to talk to, as they have a version of history and a outlook towards the future that not only is not in-line with everyone else but often-times completely 180° the other way.  

That being said, my question was whether you believe in an "elite" so-to-speak of?

Gold market manipulation crossed the Rubicon from conspiracy theory to conspiracy fact a few years ago now.  I'm surprised you're attempting to assert it isn't. 

Ghordius's picture

"Gold market manipulation crossed the Rubicon from conspiracy theory to conspiracy fact a few years ago now.  I'm surprised you're attempting to assert it isn't."

would you please stop projecting and read what I wrote? anyway, for you: yes, gold is manipulated. it is manipulated in London and NY

China and Russia are setting up new gold exchanges. that thing with gold is a huge fight between the US/UK and Russia/China

no, leave us out of that. the EUR is specifically built to float in a fiat environment as well as in a gold-backed environment

the real difference between the two is this: in the first, you hear people saying: "Deficits don't matter". in the second... they do matter, and cargo cultists like Dr. Krugman are not calling the tune

Haus-Targaryen's picture

You answering my question would be greatly appreciated. 

Jubal Early's picture

Ghordius doesn't do coherent replies, and if he does reply it is with some drole reference to EU law, which is as pointless as arguing about the US constitution.  His posts are so schizophrenic they are almost unreadable anyway.

Ghordius's picture

you are answering to my answer, aren't you? I wrote a lot about Poland in the last years, remember? the question is still if you read my comments or just go on equivocating them, as you just did in regard to the manipulated gold exchanges (yes, they are manipulated: by... whom?)

as a reminder, Poland still has it's own national currency and is not planning to leave the EU, even though it's current government would love to do that

as a reminder, Poland was the only dissenting vote when the EU Council re-elected Tusk (a Pole) as it's "President". that's a 27 to 1 vote

Haus-Targaryen's picture

I'll try again: 

Do you believe there is a global "elite" group of people who are steering public debate and policy and if so, how do you define them? 

Ghordius's picture

yes, there are global... elites, plural

undeniably so. from Chinese Party "Mandarins" to Russian Oligarchs to American/British/Aus/NZ Media Magnates like Murdoch to assorted Energy Oligarchs and so on, and so on. don't forget the MICs, for example

the Russian media opposes some views of let's say Murdoch's "Press" view of how things ought to be, for example, while being of the same opinion on others, which are opposed by others

yes, I define them through media, policies and alliances

and no, that was not your original question, and no, no comment on a blog can be comprehensive in the answer of this question

example: Poland's current "elite", the faction/party at the helm of government, is euroskeptic, more then Poland's electorate. at the same time, the whole of Poland is very, very Russia-skeptic