Is A Major Ukrainian Offensive Against The Rebels Looming?

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

On December 24, 2016, Ukraine Rebels Agreed to a New Indefinite Truce. It is the latest in many truces that neither side has honored since the Minsk Protocol, was signed on 5 September 2014.

The Minsk ceasefire agreement completely collapsed in January 2015, with renewed heavy fighting across the conflict zone, including Donetsk International Airport and Debaltsovo. A new ceasefire, called Minsk II, was agreed to on 12 February 2015.

Minsk II largely held if you don’t count near-daily artillery fire and periodic small-unit actions that have killed many hundreds on each side. However, there are numerous signs another major outbreak might be at hand.

Speculation on a renewed major outbreak comes from an April 9 Website Post by Alexander Khodakovsky.

That poster, from the preceding link, is reminiscent of a WWII call to arms. The message on the poster translates as “Join the Peoples’ Militia!”

Wikipedia notes Alexander Khodakovsky is the commander of the pro-Russian Vostok Battalion formed in early May 2014 during the 2014 insurgency in the Donbass. Khodakovsky is a former commander of the Alpha special unit of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). During the 2014 insurgency in the Donbass, he left Ukrainian state service and became the leader of the pro-Russian “Patriotic Forces of Donbass” in Donetsk Oblast, and later (until July 16, 2014 when he was replaced by Vladimir Antyufeyev) the Security Minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR).

Reader Jacob Dreizin emailed that other warning signs of a potential offensive include an intense barrage of warlike statements from Ukrainian officials including the Interior Minister and the National Security Council chief, as well as social media chatter from individuals claiming to be local residents, about unusually intense Ukrainian military aircraft activity to/from the Kramatorsk airfield (about 30 miles from the frontline) and other locations in the Ukraine-controlled part of the Donbass.

In other posts, Khodakovsky speaks of unusually heavy concentrations of Ukrainian material near the front, and warns that Ukraine is likely to launch an offensive soon, with an eye to victory before or around May 9th, a day which has symbolic significance as it is not only the start of the Eurovision contest (hosted in Kiev this year) but also “Victory Day” in Russia and the former USSR, such that deciding the war on Kiev’s terms around this date would deliver a major psychological blow to the Russian government and to all pro-Russians in Ukraine.

An April 10 Khodakovsky Article is even more ominous. Here are a few paragraphs translated by Jacob Dreizin.

What is humane? To remain silent or to talk about the coming war?

 

There are many more important signs that allow me to make a preliminary conclusion: War is on the doorstep. Do I have the right to say this? I must.

 

I think that before Easter the enemy will not go on the offensive – Not everything that can kill us has yet been dragged up to the front. But the process is ongoing. In Kramatorsk, combat airplanes and helicopters are landing at the military airfield almost every day. High-caliber weapons, such as Tochka-U’s [short-range ballistic missiles, of the sort Ukraine already used in 2014], are also arriving. In Lugansk, even the well-heeled moles of the OSCE [European monitors] have confirmed the redeployment from permanent stations of almost 100 heavy combat vehicles, which have crawled closer to the front. I think they want to organize a celebration for us for May 9th, so that we won’t have a third parade [Donetsk held May 9th parades in 2015 and 2016].

 

Be a little concerned, remembering that the war is not somewhere far away, but on the borders of the city. If full-scale battles commence, then this time it won’t be like in 2014. Most likely, not one border crossing to Ukraine will be able to function. The south will be set aflame, and that direction will be closed. There will be only one way left – to Torez and Snezhnoe, or maybe to Amvroseevka as well, to the border, to which everyone, civilians included, will be scrambling. And they will get stuck, becoming easy targets for random fire.

 

Think with your head and take care of yourself.

Igor Strelkov Comments

More definitive comments come from Igor Strelkov, who initiated the military phase of the Donbass revolt by claiming Slaviansk with a platoon-sized force on April 12th, 2014, then kept half of Ukraine’s combat-capable forces pinned down there until early July 2014, providing critical time for the rebels and their Russian advisors to secure the border and organize additional militia units in other parts of Donetsk and Lugansk.

Although Strelkov was forced to return to Russia by his own side in August 2014 (likely due to conflicts with Khodakovsky among others), he is a hero to Russia’s hard-nationalist camp and claims to maintain good contacts in Donetsk according to Jacob Dreizin.

On April 4th, Strelkov posted on his social media page, as translated by Dreizin: “In the course of the coming month, I anticipate very serious events with a totally unpredictable outcome. I have sufficiently firm grounds on this. There will be no additional comments.”

On April 13th, without referring to his April 4th post, Strelkov wrote the following as translated by Dreizin: “Near Donetsk—a savage artillery battle with losses on both sides. The concentration of Ukrainian forces and material in the immediate rear is either complete or close to completion. On the front line, in all the main sectors, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been replaced with National Guard. Aviation is concentrated on near-frontline airfields. Both sides await Easter. There are a lot of rumors about the start of large-scale battles either during the holiday or immediately after.”

If truly large-scale fighting breaks out (for the first time since the winter of 2014-2015) it would likely be contained within the former provincial borders of Donetsk and Lugansk, since going beyond those borders would —as Strelkov stated on YouTube — require large-scale, Russian Federation involvement, including a call-up of Russian reserves that we have not yet seen.

A postponement is possible if someone in Washington or Europe put their foot down on Kiev, as Chancellor Merkel did in August 2015. Otherwise, it’s pretty clear both sides are preparing for war.

From the point of view of Kiev, there may be no better time than the present because the West is already cooling towards Russia.

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knukles's picture

Peace through gross malfeasance and international meddling.

Looney's picture

 

Since the beginning of the conflict, every time the Ukrainian Nazis tried attacking the rebels, they lost more territory.  ;-)

Looney

MFL5591's picture

US behind this mess too!  Thanks McCain/ Graham!

Haus-Targaryen's picture

This whole Ukraine thing is such a waste of time.  

Its like Greece.  Both sides have gotten close to "solving" the problem, but for the preservation of the status-quo -- they've decided to kick the can. 

I hate it all and words cannot quite express how sick of this I am. 

Manthong's picture

It’s a damn shame that no one in the US government, the EU or NATO ever learned anything about the concept of “self-determination".  

Ukraine is not capable of mounting a credible offense without the help of all of the above.

But they might as well be fighting the Mujahidin with all the resources Russia will provide to the eastern “rebels”.

Watch out for the shoulder fired guided missiles.

 

Yukon Cornholius's picture

I wonder if the Ukies kept one or two of the nukies the old SSR stored there back in the day. That would be fun.

the phantom's picture

What on earth was in those Nudelman cookies?

knukles's picture

Oh come on guys!  It's all about a fungible commodity moved through pipelines.
Don't getchur shorts in a bunch

land_of_the_few's picture

There are rumours that they kept one or two nuke artillery shells or short range warheads and that one may have cooked off in the recent giant ammo depot fire.

Volkodav's picture

     no   none known according to their best specialists who

     arrived to Russia since the coup for work and safe decent life

     any actions based on such would blowback many ways

     Ukraine populance hate them already

 

Jubal Early's picture

" how sick of this I am. "

I am far sicker of the moral equivalency expressed in this article and your comment.  The entire history we have been presented is "fake" from the beginning to end, the Novorussians have been just another group of white christian victims to the zionists and their banker brethren.  To imply that somehow it is the Novorussians who have been duplitious and causing all the cease fires to fall apart is as absurd as claims about the recent "sarin gas" attack in Syria.  Or how about the MH17 false flag.

There is consistently one tribe and/or its vassal states that keeps causing all these wars and conflicts.  We can find their fingers in every conflict in one way or another, if its not drug and guns, then its money and money laundering, and if its not that its direct Mossad involvement, and if its not that then there are always dozens of tribal members in the upper ranks.

This war is being provoked by the same people who have provoked virtually every other war since their rabbi's came up with the idea of false flagging god and getting their homeland stolen for them.

detached.amusement's picture

I thought the same, and the article doesnt even mention the fact that the USA was responsible for the coup in ukraine in feb '14.

FoggyWorld's picture

Thank George Soros for starting it.

barysenter's picture

The Clintons started this during their first UNazi sponsored assault on humanity.

Omen IV's picture

Prediction: there will be Kiev Offensive -  but - the Russians now via their Eastern Ukraine Patriots will crush and annihilate  the Kiev Terrorists way beyond their past tactics - a cheap theater of operations compared to Syria

to show the Puppet as POTUS and McCann the next misstep wil be a decisive step and be the last

BlindMonkey's picture

I hope they are not put on a leash this time.  They should have every square mm of Donetsk and Lughansk under their control.

crazzziecanuck's picture

Not totally sure about that, but Kiev likely understands they can seriously attack rebel areas with even more impunity now than when Obama was President.  They likely figure Trump will turn a blind eye or else feed the (mis)perception he's Putin's puppet.

I'm sure forces in the rebel held areas understand this too.  However, given that successive rounds of drafts by Kiev literally were scraping the bottom of the barrel (at the end, they were drafting people as old as 55), does Kiev really have the numbers to hold, much less take, rebel areas?

BlindMonkey's picture

Wherever McCain goes, war and misery follow.

When was the the "Angel of Death" last seen visiting in Kiev?  

 

Blankone's picture

The EUke's have done well to repel the WUke's but do not be mistaken, the EUke's have suffered much destruction of towns, infrastructure and prosperity.

And since the beginning of the conflict Putin has forced the EUk's to agree to ceasefires when the EUke's have trapped the WUke's and were about to destroy them.

I believe Putin has an election coming. If he fails to shield the EUke's as he fails to shield the Syrians his image may suffer within Russia.

The article keeps saying "both sides" but it is the WUke's who attack. It is those who control WUke who overthrew the elected govt which then caused the EUke's to decide they did not want to live under the rule of those who were not bound to the laws and were now tyrants.

BlindMonkey's picture

The E. Ukrainians have done fine with reservists and "volunteers".  I strongly suspect that the regular Ukies will run like hell and leave the Nazis to be torched by the E. Ukrainians.  One of the reasons I believe this is that it would solve Porky's problems too since the Nazis are going to push him out soon anyway.

hannah's picture

the west ukraine doesnt have a penny for war unless usaid(the us gov) gives them some so unless trump funds them there wont be a war...

BorisTheBlade's picture

Trump won't lose a chance to back his vis-a-vis into a corner by having tension grow on both Ukrainian and Syrian fronts. Won't be before this moment that he will start discussing any sort of detente with Moscow (in style of heads I win, tails you lose). He appears to be counting on it not spiralling out of control.

Winston Churchill's picture

Its already out of control.

The Republic has become a suicidal death cult.

Fear of MAD does not apply when one player is perceived as irrational.

Catch 22, sort of, with the possibilty of first strikes.

BorisTheBlade's picture

I think we just forgot how high tensions can be. Cuban crisis was a benchmark for this sort of thing. Also, when Cold War was at its height, there were numerous nuclear tests each year, one more powerful than the other. In that sense, we still have a way to go, but we can traverse this distance quite fast without proper restraints, which now as you say are missing. People just aren't that scared of a nuclear conflict having seen it only the 60s and 70s chronicles (ancient history for many) and with generation of WW2 veterans dying out, there just isn't enough first-hand memory of how horrendous, destructive and senseless big war is. 

Yukon Cornholius's picture

The memory of the last European barn burner has almost completely faded, so it's obviously time to start the next one.

Betcha the Balkans get involved soon.

OverTheHedge's picture

Greeks are VERY concerned that one of Erduan' s first decisions as a fully paid up tyrant will be to annex a few Greek islands to stir up patriotic resolve. It would be a predictable, if not entirely logical step. Last week I was mostly deafened by air force  exercises - they like to practice over my house because, if they crash, there will be fewer civilian casualties. But there will be more me casualties, so thanks for that. Apparently, this was a joint training exercise involving Greece, Italy, Israel and Saudi Arabia. There's a list of likely allies if ever I saw one.

http://www.israeldefense.com/en/node/29224

Winston Churchill's picture

Has McStain or his little bitch been there lately

One HELL of a summuer is brewing up nicely.

Volkodav's picture

         in albania someone said

 

TheGardener's picture

I have had the privilege of having some refugess from Donbass as co-workers for some years. It was fun for the ZH enlightened

dude to ask for facts and on the ground as such. My sister boss fully embaldened in MSM propaganda was found not even truly shocked

the front line reported 60 miles off at times, but she would have not trusted their accounts to hire them in the first place.

Apolitical is aint no sin my ass ! There aint no original sin but an implicit racial sin and their aint no cure other than denoucing religious kind of morals for good measure.

 

Long story long speach : all thanks  to Voldakov  for introducing me and us to some cool Russian music : Louna.

 

 

 

 

BlindMonkey's picture

Here is the E. Ukraine version of that song with war porn.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNZg8Cmmlrc&t=7s

Volkodav's picture

     Zoya and Valera sing: When We Were at War  100% version

     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pzk7xu86rgA

     or cadet police girl  (lyrics subtilted)

     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozYao1Mju7A

Volkodav's picture

     yes..lyrics song 'Fight Club'

 

 

Volkodav's picture

       Louna    Invasion 2015    

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Vj4j-2ronQ

       4:40  FIGHT CLUB

 

 

Reaper's picture

Pax neo-conia is war.

Dark star's picture

Trump will support the Ukrainian Nazis.

You can see it coming; (It's what Hillary would have done).

zeroboris's picture

I've no doubts about that. Trump will supply heavy arms, what McCain has been lusting for three years and what Obama refused to do.

BlindMonkey's picture

That will be a red line for Putin.

 

 (Just sayin' and I'm not arguin' against it happening either.)

FoggyWorld's picture

No, HRC would not have supported Ukranian Nazis because George Soros is the primary mover and shaker behind the liberals who are mainly in Kiev.

11b40's picture

Don't think you understand the players here.

land_of_the_few's picture

The biggest joke is that even the people of Kiev are under siege for years and daren't say anything for fear of their lives since it isn't their people in government either.

TheGardener's picture

Man `s gotta hedge to the German commies to the West. They`d make good poles by their beligerence and groundless arroragances they are trying to display..

Time to straighten out their attitudes to the pre- germanic aryan imbiciles that ought to be.

 

Volkodav's picture

        okrainia radicals are largely polacks, balts and other blood....not Germons

        These are weak fakes glorify rape, murder, mutilations, beatings, theft

        their bravery are barrier squads behind poor Ukranie kids conscripts fight against their will

 

        German WWII Soldier commit rape faced firing squad

 

 

pods's picture

Can't wait to see how the 4th branch of government reports this.

pods

barysenter's picture

The mental institution sharks are circling. Comrad Pelosi is awake now and protesting Trump's presidency. Comrad Warren is still demanding an "answer".

Next 10 MOABs on their precious poppies should shut them up.

BlindMonkey's picture

You want to kill poppies?

 

I bet Monsanto has just what those plants crave!