What Does Theresa May's Stunning Announcement Mean: Bill Blain Explains

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Bill Blain via MINT Partners,

There will be load of unhappy Labour politicians this afternoon... even though many of them hold “safe seats”, I suspect many will be updating their CVs and looking for new jobs.

May’s intent is to clear the decks of dissent. SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon was the only person name checked in May’s announcement rant. That is a clear message to the Scottish Nationalists: the Conservatives intend to win this election nationally, and I should imagine we’ll see a massive effort to back up the resurgent Scottish Conservatives over the next 6 weeks. Scottish Conservatives will focus on the SNPs domestic track record running the country rather than pushing for independence – its not a good one.

There are risks:

May does risk losing her overall majority – its only 16 - especially if voters responds favourably to the Liberals who will try to turn it into a vote on Brexit. 

However, this is a national election where its the country that matters – the Conservatives have lost by-elections on Brexit protest last year, but I suspect we are beyond that in the coming national plebiscite. Wont stop the Liberals telling people how wrong they were last year.  

The SNP will try to make it a Brexit/Independence vote, but the Tories only hold one seat in Scotland so the SNP have little to gain and everything to lose. I’ll be looking at Scottish seats in detail.

Labour are the party in trouble. Although many of their seats are supposedly safe, electoral dissatisfaction with Corbyn and their pro-Brexit demograph means they’ll have to play a real election with muddled policies, a disorganised party under a hapless leader… which must have been irresistible to May.  Shame.

The election notice and vote in Westminster should pass tomorrow. If she can’t get the 2/3rd majority to overturn the 2011 fixed-term government act, a simple no-confidence vote will suffice to trigger the election.

What does it mean for markets?

Sterling Spiked Higher.

GBPUSD is at its highest since early Feb on the news - breaking aboive its 200-day moving average for the first time since Brexit.

Gilts went down (up in yield). FTSE done little.

Generally this should be seen as dampening Scottish Uncertainty, giving the Tories a clearer mandate on Brexit by default, and positive for the economy.

But let’s look at the electoral constituencies in detail to work out the likely trends. Might the Tories lose their majority to a resurgent Liberal crew (doubt it). Might Labour get wiped.. (perhaps).

Fascinating…

And don’t believe the polls…

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Troy Ounce's picture

 

May had her consent from the voters to leave the EU. It was called a referendum.

This does not pass the smell test.

fx's picture

May will end come June.

OverTheHedge's picture

I see what you did:I thought it was funny, anyway.

Well, not funny, per se, but " an amusing punne, or play on words"

kellys_eye's picture

It's a clever move to shut up the remaining protestors and opposition to Brexit plus destabilise Sturgeon and her bid for Scottish Independence.  Can't see how any of this would result in the current position being any worse..... lots of positive though.

Fake Trump's picture

She is in bed with Trump.

falak pema's picture

Yeah! Golden showers in the month of May!

Calculus99's picture

I always love it when women attack other women. May versus Sturgeon. 

falak pema's picture

Sturgeons do spawn caviar.

But does a Sturgeon spawn the pearl of Scottish independence?

Haha! 

Mayday or D-day moves to June 8 on dat !

jamesmmu's picture

She wants to increase her power in parliament so she can make brexit easiler and faster. Thats why stocks drop in future trading.

gojam's picture

Right decision. Tories will have a 100+ majority and they'll be in a stronger negotiating position with the EU

Not sure I agree about dampening Scottish uncertainty, I think it'll ensure a seecond Scots Indie Ref- Though interestingly, the Tories official name now is the Conservative and Unionist party.

Mimir's picture

"Tories will have a 100+ majority" !!!!

Don't believe the polls, he wrote 

modric's picture

Think of all those remain idiots who believed the financial sky would fall in and now know they were conned.

falak pema's picture

May may have laid a scotch egg in the Brit hen-pen.

How do you like your egg sir?

Hard boiled or soft WTO boiled?

RealityCheque's picture

Using Brexit to crush the already weakened Labour and Lib Dems once and for all.

The Conservatives will sweep the board, UKIP will gain a little but the UK overall will be a one party state for the next 25 years.

Well played Mrs May, you horrible cunt.

youngman's picture

Her brother in law must own a polling company..that is the only reason I can see for this

DarthVaderMentor's picture

To me it just means she's going for the political kill, the anihilation of the globalist liberals. Let's hope she wins.

SoDamnMad's picture

Just as long as my supply of red ceddar keeps coming.  Cut it off and your in Yuuuuuuuuuuuuge trouble.

Sid James's picture

"May does risk losing her overall majority – its only 16 - especially if voters responds favourably to the Liberals who will try to turn it into a vote on Brexit."

Yeah, because voting for tripped out hippies and bible bashing virgins is so in vogue right now.


rejected's picture

Bullshit, all of it. The Germans called for another election just a month or so ago.

Same shit they did when countries were entering. Election after election 'until the voters got it right'

21st century Democracy.

logang's picture

The Consservatives must be attacked on their management of the national debt. They have doubled the national debt since 2010. A trillion pounds - £1,000,000,000,000 - has been squandered in order to fake an economic recovery. The result has been an average increase of GDP of under 2%. That trifling increase helped them to win the 2015 general election. Sooner rather than later, there will be a 'John Perkins' moment and the moneylenders will want their money. The UK will go the way of Greece and there will be a huge sale of state assets, which happens to be Tory policy. Surprise, surprise!