April 25 Is "Highest Probability" Day For North Korean Nuclear Test China Warns

Tyler Durden's picture

According to a report by Korea JoongAng Daily, China appears to be preparing measures in case North Korea tests a nuclear device or performs another provocation, including possibly suspending oil to the regime, and adds that relations between Beijing and Pyongyang appear frostier than ever before.

Additionally, the Korea publication references the Chinese-language Boxun News, which cites a Beijing source, according to whom Chinese President Xi Jinping attempted to send Wu Dawei, China’s special representative for Korean Peninsula affairs, to Pyongyang after his summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, but North Korean leader Kim Jong-un allegedly rejected Wu’s visit.

Boxun adds that it was unclear if North Korea did not conduct a sixth nuclear test last Saturday because of Beijing’s warning not to do so, however it adds that according to "analysts" there’s a high likelihood of a provocation on the 85th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean People’s Army next Tuesday and the days leading up to the South Korean presidential election on May 9.

Citing its Chinese source, Boxun said that "China believes there is the “highest possibility” of a nuclear test on April 25, but “does not leave out the possibility it might take action in early May."

One assumes the Carl Vinson, wherever it may be in the world currently, will eventually make it to North Korea by then.

Meanwhile, South Korean officials cited by JoongAng Daily confirmed that Wu, China’s top nuclear envoy, during a visit to Seoul last week said he proposed to visit Pyongyang in person to persuade the North to refrain from further provocations but he was spurned.

Lu Chao, a Chinese expert on Korean studies at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, was among multiple analysts that told the state-affiliated tabloid Global Times Tuesday that if North Korea did not refrain from conducting its sixth nuclear test, it would “definitely trigger” more intense United Nations sanctions, and that China will implement them. 

Victor Cha, the Korea Chair at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said the “provocation window” between South Korean elections and North Korean provocations has become narrower over time, referring to database collected over the past 60 years. That window refers to the proximity in time between a South Korean election and a provocative act by North Korea, meaning a nuclear or missile test.

Cha said such a pattern “suggests a provocation as early as two weeks” before the South Korean presidential elections on May 9.  That two-week window overlaps with North Korea’s military foundation day on April 25.

* * *

Meanwhile, amid escalating military tensions in the region, the Chinese navy tested its new guided-missile destroyer, the Xining, in its first live-fire exercise conducted in the Yellow Sea, near the Korean Peninsula, broadcast on China’s state-run CCTV on Tuesday.  The Xining, China’s Type 052D-class missile destroyer with was put into service by the People’s Liberation Army Navy in January.

The exercise, possibly warning against a North Korean military provocation, was reported to have lasted several days and comes as Beijing has called for North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions under renewed pressure from the Trump administration. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence warned Monday in Seoul the “era for strategic patience is over.”

Trump has been lauding Beijing for helping with the Pyongyang situation, especially over sending back North Korean vessels bringing coal to a Chinese port. Trump told Fox News Tuesday in reference to Chinese President Xi Jinping, “He’s working so nicely that many coal ships have been sent back. Fuel is being sent back. They’re not dealing the same way. Nobody’s ever seen it like that.” As reported previously, in February, China announced it would suspend all coal imports from North Korea to the end of the year in accordance with a UN Security Council resolution.

Meanwhile, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Wednesday warned Pyongyang to exercise restraint on any actions that could heighten tension on the Korean Peninsula in response to Pyongyang’s recent bellicose rhetoric.

Lu Kang, a spokesman of the ministry, said at a briefing, “China objects to any words that could heighten tensions since the current situation on the Korean Peninsula is highly complicated and sensitive.” Within China, there is talk about playing a key card to pressure North Korea - cutting off oil supplies to the Kim Jong-un regime.

In an editorial last week, the state-run tabloid Global Times said that if Pyongyang engaged in further provocations, Chinese society would approve of “severe restrictive measures that have never been seen before, such as restricting oil imports to the North.” On Monday, the paper again called for China to cut off most oil supplies to North Korea if there was another nuclear test.

In an editorial Tuesday, it pointed out that China and U.S. cooperation is increasing over the North Korean problem, and that the possibility of dragging out the North Korea issue indefinitely has “decreased drastically.”

“North Korea and China are a blood alliance, interdependent like no other,” said a South Korean government official Tuesday.  “But the atmosphere in China, which has left a back door open to North Korea regardless of the international community’s sanctions, is changing little by little.”

North Korea depends on China for some 90 percent of its crude oil supply.

Lee Gee-dong, head of the Strategic Team on North Korea at the Seoul-based Institute for National Security Strategy, said, “Though it may not be immediate, if North Korea conducts a strategic provocation such as a sixth nuclear test or launches an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), Beijing will have to use the halting of oil exports card.” However, some analysts think the threat of cutting oil supplies to the North is mere rhetoric.

“In the 1990s, when the North Korea nuclear issue first escalated, China could have blocked oil then,” one former South Korean official said. “The oil supply card could be a performance by China to impress President Trump, but bears more watching.”

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Consuelo's picture

 

 

 

“In the 1990s, when the North Korea nuclear issue first escalated, China could have blocked oil then,” one former South Korean official said. “The oil supply card could be a performance by China to impress President Trump, but bears more watching.”

 

"Make a sound in the East, strike in the West"...

Looney's picture

 

The WH has issued a strongly-worded statement:

“The President sent a Yuge Fleet of big-ass Excavators to dig a grave for Kim Jong Un.

While on the way to N. Korea, the Fleet is also on the way to Australia and Zimbabwe.

The grave-digging is scheduled to start at 46:81 NKT (North Korean Time) on January 1, 2078.”

Looney   ;-)

nuubee's picture

Damnit, this is just WW3 Theatre. I was getting excited about bugging out. *puts away the diesel generator*

Darktarra's picture

There is still hope!  April 24th is the best chance for a first strike against Kim! 

RiverRoad's picture

Should take "Walk away in May" to a whole new level....

BTW: "Within China, there is talk about playing a key card to pressure North Korea - cutting off oil supplies to the Kim Jong-un regime.

In an editorial last week, the state-run tabloid Global Times said that if Pyongyang engaged in further provocations, Chinese society would approve of “severe restrictive measures that have never been seen before, such as restricting oil imports to the North.” On Monday, the paper again called for China to cut off most oil supplies to North Korea if there was another nuclear test."

Right.  Great idea:  We were blockading Japan's oil when they decided to bomb Pearl Harbor. 

/sarc   /sarc   /sarc

 

PrayingMantis's picture

... while China appears to be preparing measures in case North Korea tests a nuclear device or performs another provocation, China seems evidently being prepped to take over the US in the Global economic race  [ that is, if you believe ((("Sir Evilyn de Red Shield))) on this video ] ... >>> "How the Rothschilds prepared China to be the next USA"  >>>  https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=0e4_1492571270 ... much like fattening the cow for the slaughter ...

 

J Jason Djfmam's picture

So, who will be buying these products from this new economic race winner?

skinwalker's picture

I feel you. I don't want ww3, as no sane man does, but this constant teasing is getting on my nerves.

It's like your wife putting you in a cock cage and inviting 12 fine ass hookers over.

TheFederalistPapers's picture

Or, watching us run a train on her...

Peacefulwarrior's picture

In this game of Economic Musical Chairs, North Korea is expendable

CRM114's picture

With a weak US President, China having the Norks as its "pet" attack dog was an asset.

It's just become a liability.

Yung Fat Wun could be dog food himself before the year is out.

Bill of Rights's picture

Pack that Dynamite tight men...

Son of Captain Nemo's picture

"Orange Cheeto head" will be celebrating on that date with a "beautiful slice of chocolate layer cake"... Cause everything is going so well for him!

IN HIS OWN HEAD!!!

Bill of Rights's picture

Ya the Brillo Pad Head was all the rage....Fuck off with that shit already...

Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Translation: April 25th is the date China needs to hand over to the Federal Reserve some more of there gold like Maduro... Or suffer the consequences of a nuclear contaminated U.S.S. Ronald Reagan threatening North Korea floating around in it's ocean with "it's contamination"!

SHADEWELL's picture

Shit's about to get very real folks

Weekend..looks like potential kickoff

Son of Captain Nemo's picture

"Shit's about to get very real folks

Weekend..looks like potential kickoff"!

No it's not. Just some moar posturing that will get the U.S. nowhere fast (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-18/us-fighter-jets-intercept-two-r...) if they attempt Defcon 2.

Same as it ever was!

Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Case in point. Look at the smelly pile of shit from the U.S. Department of State that just flew in on it's return from Russia?(http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-19/exxon-seeks-russian-sanctions-w...)!

Hope Russia has a fan and a nose plug?!!!

VIS MAIOR's picture

hehe  trumptards neocons  think vietnam , thailand,cambodia  will allow everywhere around radioactive sea .. ..wich can destroy their economy...?? )))))  OR ..these countries are likely to have several million soldiers immediately in mobilize ...  

so dont mess there dumb ass americano ))  

oo boy ))  if it should be something really happen that already fall thai bath ,dong..   

mkhs's picture

TUI-typing under the influence?

Son of Captain Nemo's picture

WOW! On second thought...

We're dropping it to 'Defcon 5" NOW (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-19/russian-nuclear-capable-bombers...)!

Clearly we ain't ready to rumble with the Bear if this one is true!

How fucking embarrassing can it get for the USAF?!!!

Back to the drawing board with the "notes" in Arlington...

TheLastTrump's picture

Shade I think the US carrier arrives Monday, or Tues.

RagaMuffin's picture

The bow of the destroyer looks like its bumped into something already

gladih8r's picture

Yeah, and it happened in their own driveway.  How embarassing.

 

Vageling's picture

They call it an anchor, boy wonder.

Mick Shrimpton's picture

Good, just don't spoil my weekend.

Yogieu's picture

How convenient.... just a day before a new moon.

biker's picture
biker (not verified) Apr 19, 2017 1:26 PM

North Korea is the SHIT!

They have launched a cargo ship that DOES NOT need fucking gasoline/diesel!!

The race for REAL energy independence away from houston and camel land has been won by NORTH KOREA.

Another Self-powered NK Ship runs completely on MAGNETS!!!
http://www.tongilnews.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=120494

Americans are fucking BIG BIG BIG
LOSERS!

America still using 16th century steam power dinosaur blood. LOL

Will not be long before we are buying energy from NK the world leaders on free energy.

America = slave to the jews.

Vageling's picture

Yeah... I have some top notch fairy dust. I sprinkled it over the car and suddenly it acquired teleportation functionality. Now ain't that some kool shit!

Naive sucker.

J Jason Djfmam's picture

I went to that site but couldn't find the "crick fol engrish" button.

mkhs's picture

Silly round eyes.  Why  we want you still our idea?

south40_dreams's picture

Six more days...aren't we there yet?

Dacian's picture

April-16-17 – We Just Survived World War III “But we all survived, and now the Donald has had himself awarded the title of a war president, and he can now negotiate with the Chinese and the Russians – from a position of strength . . . the demise of the United States.”

Hillarys Server's picture

It's funny that everyone knows the mainstream media lies about everything.

But for some reason they believe everything they hear about North Korea.

These are some thoughts.

1. North Korea is desperately trying to set up capitalist free market zones in each city, but the US sanctions have blocked them.
2. The North per capita incarceration rate is lower than in the US. And in the US, about 20% of prison rapes are by the prison staff (per Wikipedia quoted gov statistics)
3. After WW2, there were tens of thousands of rapes in Japan by US military. On just one island, about 300 a day. NK doesn't want to be turned to Libyan rubble and be raped. Why wouldn't they defend themselves.
4. The government has two goals, defense and economic growth. Everyone supports this.
5. Everyone passionately loves their country, people, history, independence and government.
6. Crime is almost non-existent. Not because of fear but because they have a common culture and pride. Just look at a NY multicultural crime breakdown. They don't have high crime demographics.
7. There's no litter, no graffiti and the air is perfectly clean, sky blue and clouds fluffy. Everyone walks around slowly and contentedly without stress or fear like in a science fiction movie in both the cities and countryside.
8. Literacy is 100%.
9. Everyone fiercely patriotic.
10. North Korea doesn't want to invade Japan, Indonesia or any other country. They want to reunite peacefully since they're all the same Koreans.
11. Their weapons are for self defense.
12. The US sells billions of dollars of weapons to South Korea. The US weapons industry needs North Korea to remain an enemy even though North Korea wants to joint the world economic community and grow like China or Vietnam.
13. Almost every singer and politician said to be fed to wolves or shot with anti-aircraft guns has come back to life months later. Almost all lies. But Infowars and so on repeat those convenient lies without doing actual research to check if they're true. So sad.
14. Infowars, which I usually like especially PJW, constantly says commie China is evil and North Korea is crazy. So unprofessional! Maybe the show needs an enemy to get excited about, but China and North Korea aren't as evil or crazy as they say. Those in prison aren't happy, but the US has the highest incarceration rate!

TheLastTrump's picture

8. Literacy is 100%.
9. Everyone fiercely patriotic.

 

 

That's some moronic shit right there. Did you know that if someone says you looked at one of the photos of fatman and had a scowl on your face you and your family and close friends may wind up in a death camp prison? Did you know that they torture, rape, kill prisoners? Did you know that Christians go to death camps by default?

 

Did you know that there isn't enough food to go around, and that fatboy makes sure his military east before civilians? So anyone not in favor of the Kim admin starves?

 

Yeah what an awesome first world country. Fuck, they don't even make 3rd world status, they're in a class all their own.

 

silverer's picture

They all look fit and healthy. No fat potato chip gorgers in NK. There's a positive side to that. Besides, the US is heading to a similar fate when the fake currency crashes. You should study how NK citizens cope, and get ready to join the club.

silverer's picture

Obviously, it's not a perfect place. But I agree the western mainstream media paints everything black. One thing you can see with your own eyes for sure: The North Koreans are still within their borders, and they haven't attacked anyone yet. WWII: the US and Russia did not go to war until their country or allies were attacked. Now the west starts a war to prevent a war. The west has "advanced".

Hillarys Server's picture

I think most of the bad points, the terrible poverty and prisons are because they're trying to get their free market going like in Vietnam.

But the US has been blockading their attempts at international joint ventures with sanctions.

I think NK should be compared not with the US which is super rich, but with other equally poor countries like Liberia.

In Liberia they eat babies before fighting. Or even rich Mexico where you'd be tortured and then buried upside down in the desert.

Jim Rogers went all throughout NK and said he'd put all his money there if he could.

He said the defector speeches are a highly paid defector speech industry (largely paid for by the US government), and almost all people who leave NK for China bribe their way back.

I think these pictures, some of them funny, give another view of North Korea than the that of the government media complex.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIex8xBUEAAO0Qp.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJUhju1UkAECdKV.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJKZ0cIUEAAF57B.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CI4sw8bUcAAJqvy.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJ7f2xWUkAAY8lP.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CI1dguoUAAEFWee.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CeC_vV2VAAEN6DQ.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CJJAP4kUwAALFJ2.jpg

Shed Boy's picture

Having spent almost a year in China and having traveling all over that country, making many friends and talking a lot, I can tell you that 99% of all the things our media reports on about China is pure bullshit.

On the flip side, there are a lot of things that go on in China our media never touches on. For the most part, if they did, it would be a clear case of calling the kettle black. And our media doesn't go there.

Clearly, China is no paradise either. But it sure ain't what our media paints it to be.

Our media is nothing but a propaganda source now.

Hillarys Server's picture

Yeah, it's so funny.

Hillary supporters repeated verbatim what they heard on CNN and said

"Trump is crazy. He grabs p-ssy and is a Russian spy and hires prostitutes to pee in Russian hotels."

And Trump supporters roll their eyes and can't believe how anyone could be so dumb.

But after rolling their eyes those same people say 

"Kim Jong Un has chocolate delivered to him by unicorns and shoots his former girlfriends with uranium tipped hydrogen bombs"

and just repeat what they hear on the very same discredited government media outlets in the same way that the Hillary supporters do!

e_goldstein's picture

Kinda convenient for the hawks with a new moon on the 26th.

silverer's picture

Better warm up the printing presses for Comex to keep those PM prices down!

CHoward's picture

"So basically, we don't know shit when it comes to what North Korea is doing."

aloha_snakbar's picture

My Magic Eight Ball says 'all signs point to' April 24th...

aloha_snakbar's picture

A seer at a county fair once told me I was 1/1000th Korean...*please dont nuke my people*!

mkhs's picture

Would it be better if you were half-assed?