French Stocks Surge Off Technical Support After Overnight Poll

Tyler Durden's picture

Nothing says existential fear for the EU like buying the f**king French dip on the heels of an overnight poll that simply confirmed expectations that the worst case scenario 'Le Pen - Melenchon' second round was still a significant outlier. French stocks soared 1.7% - the most in 6 weeks - bouncing off the 50-day moving average.

We suspect given the massive hedge positions being laid out that this kind of volatility will be the new normal for the next week or so... 

Notice CAC bounced perfectly off the 50DMA

It was a broad-based rally, with banking stocks among top gainers: BNP Paribas +4.2%, Societe Generale +3.8%, Credit Agricole +3%.

CAC 40 is “taking centre stage and moving higher on the belief that Emmanuel Macron will make it to the final vote this weekend,” Michael Hewson, a market analyst at CMC Markets, wrote in a note.

Following are first-round voting intention estimates in Harris Interactive-France Televisions poll for the French presidential election. Changes from Apr. 13 are in brackets.

  • Emmanuel Macron 25% (+1 point)
  • Marine Le Pen 22% (unchanged)
  • Francois Fillon 19% (-1 point)

And overall, Le Pen's odds of final victory have fallen notably (below Fillon) according to Oddschecker.


Still, we all know what polls are worth.

Meanwhile, Europeans really don't care...  

The European Commission’s consumer-confidence index for the euro area jumped the most in five months in April. The advance put the index at its highest since March 2015, matching the strongest reading since before the financial crisis. The latest figures were far better than economists had anticipated and mark another step in the region’s economic recovery for European Central Bank policy makers to consider at their meeting next week.

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jamesmmu's picture

Today's stock surge is actually a great sign for bears, they are buying stocks AND THE PROTECTION, havent see it for a long time. VIX up. they start to fear, market will be turning into bear market soon.

Ghost of PartysOver's picture

Same Pollster as Brexit and Trump?

JRobby's picture

Same elite game plan over and over with a new twist: the 500k offshore double votes to make sure "a threat to our power like these never happens again".

French citizens can choose freedom or to hand their country over to the elites and Muzzy's.

Ghordius's picture

I'd say France has a completely different political system, including it's constitution

ZH: "Meanwhile, Europeans really don't care..."

yup. a big... meh. in fact, it would be fun to see Le Pen as President of France

I'm still hoping that Fillon makes it, though. he'd be the "Nixonian" "Silent Majority" candidate that would fit a conservative base that is not answering to pollsters

CuttingEdge's picture

Isn't Fillon the blatantly crooked one?

I know it's par for the course to be bent in Brussels when it comes to feathering your own nest, but even so, Ghordius...

spastic_colon's picture

they figured out that US VIX still has 25% downside to go.............

Erwin643's picture

Makes sense.

Thanks for the tip. Another indicator I should use (the 11 handle), going long SVXY/short UVXY. Normally I just look at VIX's Full Stochastic.

Jim Shoesesta's picture

Viva la Bankruptcy! 

whatamaroon's picture

I'm off to Arbys to buy me some French dip. BTW tho DOW up 131 in sympathy?

werker's picture

Want horsey sauce with that?

scoutshonor's picture

The CAC seems to be signaling that the fix is in.

Hongcha's picture

Agreed.  SCGLY is my quick & dirty indicator.