'Soft' Data Slumps - Philly Fed Plunges Most In Over 2 Years As Trumphoria Fades

Tyler Durden's picture

Having surged to its highest levels since 1984 in February, Philly Fed's Manufacturing survey (soft data) has collapsed in the last two months (biggest drop since Jan 2015). The 22.00 print mised expectations and was the lowest since Dec 2016 amid a big slump in new orders and shipments.


The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 32.8 in March to 22.0 this month. The index has been positive for nine consecutive months and remains at a relatively high reading but has moved down the past two months. Thirty-seven percent of the firms indicated increases in activity in April, while 15 percent reported decreases.

Crucially the 'hope' subcomponent plunged to 45.5 (contracting) - the lowest since the election.

The full breakdown shows the big decline in shipments and new orders.

The current new orders and shipments indexes remained at high readings but declined 11 points and 10 points, respectively. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the sixth consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders. Firms reported an increase in manufacturing employment and work hours this month. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment (27 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting a decrease (8 percent).

The current employment index improved 2 points, its fifth consecutive positive reading . Firms also reported an increase in work hours this month: The average workweek index was nearly unchanged at 18.9 and has registered a positive reading for six consecutive months.

Furthemore it appears Reflation fatigue is seting in as the prices paid index decreased 7 points to 33.7. With respect to prices received for firms’ own manufactured goods, 30 percent of the firms reported higher prices, and 13 percent reported lower prices. The prices received index decreased 4 points.

Soft data is giving up the hope...

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blueberry100's picture

And down goes Fraiser.

Bill of Rights's picture

Too bad Obama is gone all the ( Fake ) data was wonderful when he was in. Wait Fake data fake president hmm

Rainman's picture

Thirty years ago we had Johnny Cash, Steve Jobs and Bob Hope.

Today we have no cash, no jobs and no hope.

FreeShitter's picture

Just keep your pecker hard and your powder dry..

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

In the Grand Pecking Order
Where is it you stand
Under foot of swollen bastards
Or on the neck of another man
At the grand feeding table
Are you sitting near the head
Or the corner by the bathroom
Where you're asked to pass the bread

And you pass it with a smile on your face
For to pout about would only bring disgrace
To the Grand Pecking Order

In the grand pecking order
Where is it you lie
Are you the tall hog at the trough
Or a piglet in the stye
On the grand ladder of life
Are you near the highest rung
Or somewhere near bottom
With your nose in hairy bung

And you sniff it with a smile on your face
For to pout about would only bring disgrace
To the Grand Pecking Order
And you're dancing with a smile on your face
For to stand about would only bring disgrace!
To the Grand Pecking Order

-Les Claypool

Giant Meteor's picture

It's probably nothing ..

NoWayJose's picture

Trumphoria was based on repealing Obamacare, cutting taxes, and reducing regulations. Other than a very small trickle of regulations going away - there is not much for soft data to cheer.

Iconoclast421's picture

It is still way higher than 90% of the people on here thought it would be 6-12 months ago. Long ways to go!

_RRR_'s picture

yea, isn't the big play to lure the "investing crowd" in the wrong direction, then bleed them dry?

Didn't this just happen? It could drop further, wouldn't surprise me. But I don't really believe in it though, there was much skepticism and massive short positions.

So a "summer rallye" could lure the last skeptical investors to buy the thing. Then it could be a nice short. Purgatory or hell, just like GMO said and they rarely miss the subject