Analyst Who Predicted Trump's Rise Bets On Le Pen Victory

Tyler Durden's picture

Don’t bank on a relief rally in the euro area anytime soon...

"Le Pen’s momentum is a slow-moving reaction against the men of Davos - as we have seen with Brexit and Trump - but markets don’t want to believe it."  

That’s the conclusion drawn by Charles Gave, founder of Hong-Kong based asset-allocation consultancy GaveKal Research, who, as Bloomberg reports, predicted the triumph of Donald Trump in the U.S. election, and is now betting on a win for the anti-euro National Front candidate.

Markets are underpricing the prospect of Marine Le Pen emerging victorious in the French election as a sea of undecided voters throws into sharp relief pronounced apathy for center-leftist Emmanuel Macron -- the front-runner by a whisker -- and the backlash against the European Union project.

 

Given the prospect of a Le Pen victory, Bloomberg adds that Gave, who has been researching tactical asset allocation for more than 40 years, is advising clients to adopt long positioning in the pound as the U.K. would benefit from haven bids, and shorts on inflation-linked German bonds amid the risk of deflation in the euro area.

“The market is talking about the nightmare scenario but it’s not pricing it in” said Mark Tinker, head of AXA Framlington Asia. Tinker’s a GaveKal client, and admirer of Gave’s tail-risk warnings over the past year.

 

“After Sunday, we will have more information to make a considered risk-return wager to trade and hedge, but high-quality European companies and German bonds look like an attractive bet,” Tinker said.

The stars, however, appear to be aligning for the National Front candidate, said Gave. The fact two candidates for the runoff are likely to be determined by voters who have yet to make up their minds -- as many as 40 percent -- is a bad omen for the centrist contender, he said.

At least half of the far-left and half of the center-right won’t vote for Macron in the second round if he is pitted against Le Pen, believing he is“tainted” by his association with Francois Hollande’s government, and would rather abstain, Gave said.

 

Supporters of Francois Fillon, a center-right candidate whose momentum has been curtailed by graft charges, and a sizable chunk of Macron’s followers would probably rally to Le Pen’s cause if she were to face leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the final round, according to Gave.

 

He sees only Fillon with a chance to defeat Le Pen in the run-off.

The odds are very different...

But Gave offers an ominous vision of what happens next...

If she emerges victorious, the euro would tank as markets would price in the prospect of its dissolution, rather than focus on Le Pen’s legislative hurdles to exit the single-currency bloc.

 

French and Italian bonds will be “unquotable” given vanishing bids, and the European banking system would be beset by seismic turmoil.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm sure no matter who "wins" they will quickly see the light and embrace the globalist's agenda.

Looney's picture

 

THIS JUST IN!!!

Dennis Gartman is joining the Trump Administration as a Flip-Flopping Advisor.

Looney   ;-)

saudade's picture

Kike Puppet-in-Chief Drumpf would look even more silly in flip flops.

 

FrozenGoodz's picture

Hates flip flops ... and robes ... doesn't even have a pair ... SAD

eforce's picture

Protocols said there will be violent revolutions in Europe, after what happened in the Netherlands and Austria (right-wing candidates scewed by establishment) I find a Le Pen victory unlikely.

crazytechnician's picture

So , they are having an erection . And Le Pen-is big in France. Biggest cock wins.

Gohigher's picture

" Because I will bring in the best and brightest people"....

DavidC's picture

Looney,
Naughty but funny!

DavidC

Laddie's picture

Yes, in the USSA nobody CAN run who would do us any good.
The (((DEEP STATE))) runs the show.

El Vaquero's picture

Which is why there is going to be some sort of violent catharsis.  

AllBentOutOfShape's picture

Le Pen is France's Trump.  She will join Trump's drum-beating for war with Syria, Iran, and NK all while ignoring Russia and China's calls for adherence to international law.

perkunas's picture

Keep in mind, France has like 5 parties, each one close in the polls. So even if Le Pen wins she has only like 20 some odd, percent of the vote. Nothing will change, the system is designed to keep the globalists in power.

Kaeako's picture

I'm pretty sure the crowd here doesn't care whether Le Pen can or can't change things. She is their destroyer of worlds. I'd be surprised if there's more than a handful of people who know what she's actually about, how she's planning to move when it comes to the EU and so on.

BarkingCat's picture

You are right. I would be cheering on Jerry Lewis for French presidency if it were going to crash the EU.

Ghordius's picture

you mean it's made to keep the grown ups, those who do not believe in extreme solutions from giving up all power to the children that do, particularly in the hands of one "Big Brother / Big Sister That Knows Best, Shut Up and Soldier"

that's not the globalist, that's us, the centrists. you know, the moderates

AvoidingTaxation's picture

Fight or Die, what moderation. The problem are the meek. The problem are the moderates.

indio007's picture

Brexit is in limbo and Trump is a flip-flop.

Le Pen's victory means little.

 

The voting populace means even less.

The PTB don't have the consent of the governed because they don't do what we consented to.

 

Mclovin's picture

Brexit hardly in limbo.

N2OJoe's picture

Brexit is absolutely in limbo.

Why do you think the spineless Theresa May called the snap election? They're playing every stupid game they can think of to delay, avoid, and forget to actually follow through with it.

Ghordius's picture

it's being debated in both ways, in the UK. luckily, the British Electorate makes the choice

it's a bit tough to defend one referendum while being against new elections, isn't it?

but yes, you are right in that Remainers (48%) tend to think that every day more Leavers die from old age then Remainers

it will be seven interesting weeks, but consensus here in europe is that Brexit is not in limbo. we'll see

runnymede's picture

So, just hold referendum after referendum until TPTB get the result they want. The electorate made their choice. Whilst everyday more immigrants invade, more .gov propaganda, more chance for inventing ballot shenanigans, more MI6 psyops, more banker theft. No wonder you Euros are where you are. 

G: I give you respect for participating here, but you often speak out of both sides of your mouth. Either give the finger to Brussels or don't. And if you don't, you get what you get. I would think a history of serfdom and warfare, always paid with the blood and treasure of the people, would be sufficient to motivate the Euros to be sharpening their pitchforks. You sold your birthright for a mess of pottage known as central planning. Time to get it back or STFU and enjoy forced labor and sharia law.

crazytechnician's picture

Brexit or no Brexit , there won't be an EU to exit from in 2 / 3 years. The EUSSR Titanic is taking on water from multiple leaks. Brexit was a life boat.

Ghordius's picture

you forgot to add the part that starts with "because..."

or is it just the new gospel, something that has to be believed in order to remain in the ranks of the faithful?

crazytechnician's picture

Because that which is unsustainable won't be sustained. Visit Athens or any other southern European city , they are all degrading into slums thanks to your beloved EUSSR. Now back to your EUSSR Brussels PolitBureau gravy train , a few thousand more unelected thieveing beaurocrats need to dream up even more ways to waste even more money while the rest of Europe slides slowly into poverty.

Fake Trump's picture

Sorry. I beg to disagree. If Le Pen wins, big banks will be in trouble. Big trouble because of their derivative positions which worth trillions. Lehman Moment 20 times.

mofreedom's picture

Politicians flip-flop, business men adjust.  Trump is a business man.

Think?

mofreedom's picture

I have thought about it alot since the bombing in Sryia.  I am not worried.

ross81's picture

why do they keep insisting that the likes of Hillary, Cameron and Macron are centrist? They are not. They're fanatical neo-liberal extremists who suck banker cock & salivate at the prospect of bombing brown folks.

Ghordius's picture

+1 they like political terms that make sense in continental european (read: horseshoe shaped) parliaments

where from the gallery you can see MPs facing the rostrum, on the Far Left... the Far Left, up to the Center, up to the Far Right... on the Far Right of the "horseshoe"

those terms do make sense in a proportional voting system, and they simply don't in a political landscape where there are only two parties

a centrist? I am one. what do I abhor? extreme, radical solutions, particularly if based on a very narrow majority

what do I like? a broad consensus, moderate policies

the state? neither to be loved nor to be hated nor to be used like a sledgehammer. it is there to serve the citizen, not to lead him

hence no "leaders", please, not in the form of Big Brother or Big Sister Knows Best, Shut Up and Soldier

Al Huxley's picture

Exactly.  Of course 'they' insist they're centrist because that's the script, and most people will reflexively accept it without thinking or question.

A. Boaty's picture

The words "centrist" and "moderate" have no political meaning. I defy anyone to make a list of positions on issues that define the political "center." One may as well divide by zero.

Ghordius's picture

they have no political meaning... in the US

I have a simple one for you: fiscal policy. who wants that budget balanced?

the fascists? the communists? the Left? the Right? nope. It's us. The Center

zero is exactly the term. zero, neither deficit nor surplus

BarkingCat's picture

Balanced budged is only a small part of the monetary equation.

What if you could balance the budget by imposing 75% income tax and 50% VAT?

How about if that balanced budget could be achieved by forced labor for everyone, who only receive what is needed to live in terms of food, shelter and clothing?

 

Ghordius's picture

well, try it out in front of the electorate, then

my point is that on both extremes of the political spectrum, the promises become extreme... but the bill is neglected to be mentioned

I would not mind the Communist explaining what the costs of Communism are

I would not mind the Fascist explaining what the costs of Fascims are

but, invariably, they simply don't

"Follow Me, and we will somehow manage to not pay the bill"

flapdoodle's picture

Its is foolish to assume this is a two dimensional spectrum - it is NOT, and it is a huge perceptual flaw to believe it is. The forces of the Deep State have been moving the political mass in its own direction, off axis to the foolish "left-right" paradigm for DECADES.

Just because you clock says its noon does not mean that noon today is the same environment as was noon yesterday.

Clycntct's picture

Number one take a far-left statement the farthest left statement you can find. Number two take a far-right statement the furthest right statement on the position you can find. Number three count all the words of both of those statements. Number four  divide that total number of words in half. Number 5 draw a line between the left half and the right half. Number 6 you are now in the center. Number seven you are now a Centrist.

BarkingCat's picture

Exactly. Back in the day Bill Clinton was considered a leftist and Hillary even more so.

Bill was acknowledged as a political opportunist that who would appropriate right wing political positions as a method of maintaining or gaining political power.

Hillary was considered a true believer.

Seems that the truth was somewhat different. Their leftist ideology was always meant for the masses but not for themselves or their associates.

 

brushhog's picture

Well obviously if you are trying to portray left wing ideology as "mainstream" then you want to shift the whole paradigm to the left. So what was central, is now to the right, what was left is now central, and what was right is now 'extremely right' and not even really in the picture. They've been very successful at doing this for a long time.

restelle's picture

A tranny named "Le Pen".

Cute...

FORCE's picture

but le pen is mightier than le sword...

khnum's picture

I dont think anyone from Jesus Christ to Alexander the Great could save that country now she's fooked

BarkingCat's picture

I can name multiple historical figures that could save it. Alexander the Great certainly could although a better choice would be Charles the hammer Martel. It is something that he has already faced.

 

jet20's picture

Charles Martel would clean out the trash like its not been cleaned out since 732AD!

If only more French would think of him when they chant: "Je suis Charlie" ...

Volaille de Bresse's picture

Gave IS good but he's a market expert 1st and foremost. His analysis is more wishful thinking than anything else.

 

But who knows... maybe MLP will be elected as early as Sunday 23 with 50.1% of votes.

 

For French readers here's the original and hilarious text:

http://institutdeslibertes.org/elections-comment-hollande-and-co-risquen...

lester1's picture

We will find out Sunday if these polls were gigged just like the msm polls were in this country against Trump.

Oh and Tylers.. get rid of the dam pop up ads !!!!!

DjangoCat's picture

I use an ad blocker.  The site is unusable without it.  This way the Tylers get their revenue stream and I am happy.

JBilyj's picture

Mobile on this site is as bad as it gets spam and popup wise...

blargg's picture

I use Opera Mini Beta and its ad blocking makes this site perfectly usable on my low-end phone.