Trump Administration Begins Quiet Preparations For Government Shutdown

Tyler Durden's picture

Even as Donald Trump is desperate to show to the US population, and especially his voter base, some actual achievement before his first 100 days run out next weekend, prompting him to tell AP that he will unveil a "tremendous" tax ut plan next week (recall he did the same in February), the Trump administration is quietly preparing for the possibility of a government shutdown, even though the president and his staff believe one is unlikely to occur. 

With the Senate reconvening on Monday and the House of Representatives on Tuesday after a two-week recess, lawmakers will have only four days to pass a spending package to keep the government open beyond April 28, when funding expires for numerous federal programs. "I think we want to keep the government open," Trump said on Thursday, adding he thinks Congress can pass the funding legislation and perhaps also a revamped healthcare bill.

Trump's wish may be problematic: as a reminder, the government will shut down midnight on April 28 if Congress cannot agree on a spending bill. As reported over the past week, the measure hit various snags over Trump's demands to include funding for Trump’s border wall and a debate over money for an ObamaCare insurer subsidy program, both programs which virtually assure the spending bill will not pass.

As a result, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has begun to coordinate with government agencies to plan for a possible shutdown. “While we do not expect a lapse, prudence and common sense require routine assessments will be made,” OMB Director Mick Mulvaney said in a statement.

The office set up a phone call to go over the agencies’ shutdown plans, which could include steps such as furloughs for federal workers.  The OMB said the plans were reviewed ahead of a possible shutdown last December and are unlikely to be revised.

As Compass Point analyst Isaac Boltansky, notes, "wall funding is just one of many policy potholes that could disrupt negotiations, including ACA cost-sharing subsidies, coal miner benefits, sanctuary cities."

To be sure, Congress can avoid a full-blown shutdown if it passes a short-term spending measure to keep the government open while negotiations over a broader funding deal continue, but even that process has been put into question.

"I think we're in good shape," President Trump said when asked about the possibility of a shutdown. “We remain confident we’re not going to have a shutdown,” White House press secretary Sean Spicer told reporters at a separate off-camera briefing, calling the preparation “required steps” for the federal agencies and departments.

Some analysts disagree with the optimistic assessment.

According to Cowen's Chris Kruger "shutdown theatrics reach fever pitch next week, with one-week punt most likely outcome" however he focuses on the "White House’s misconception they have any leverage with Democrats when it’s the opposite, as Congressional Democrats have less than zero incentive to compromise with Trump and Trump needs them to keep govt from shutting down."

As such unless Trump concedes to all demands, not only is a full spending bill out of the question, but even a short-term agreement appears precarious.

More ominously, Kruger adds that "until this week, shutdown threat seemed very low as Congressional GOP leadership, appropriators hammered out spending agreements, were on same page as Democrats; that went sideways when White House pushed more confrontational approach on ObamaCare, immigration."

Meanwhile, Height Securities' Peter Cohn has noted the House Democrats taking a hard line against even one-week stopgap continuing resolution (CR) "due to unresolved White House demands on funding wall construction, withholding funds from sanctuary cities."

He sees 25% odds for temporary partial shutdown, with path to deal including boost for border "security" funds (not wall), added military funding. Others, such as Goldman see shutdown odds at one in three (and rising).

As Reuters adds, leading House Democrats were voicing skepticism a deal could be reached by the deadline. In a telephone call for House Democrats, Representative Nita Lowey, the senior Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, said: "I don't see how we can meet that deadline" and avoid having to pass a short-term extension, according to an aide on the call. The second-ranking House Democrat, Representative Steny Hoyer, told his fellow Democrats that they should only support such a short-term measure if a deal on long-term bill is reached and only finishing touches remained, the aide said.

Republican leaders face a familiar balancing act: satisfying the party's most conservative members while not alienating its moderates.

Rules in the 100-seat Senate mean Trump's party also would need the support of at least eight Democrats even if the Republicans remain unified, giving the opposition party leverage. House Republican leaders would need some Democratic votes if the most conservative lawmakers object to the bill, as they did to the healthcare plan championed by Speaker Paul Ryan. With congressional elections looming next year, Republicans acknowledge the stakes are high.

"Even our most recalcitrant members understand that if you shut down the government while you're running it and you control the House and the Senate, you can't blame anybody but yourself," said Representative Tom Cole, a senior House Appropriations Committee Republican.

White House budget director Mick Mulvaney said the Trump administration was willing to talk to Democrats about funding for Obamacare subsidies in exchange for their agreement to include some Trump priorities such as the wall, the defense hike and more money for immigration enforcement. "It is ripe for some type of negotiated agreement that gives the president some of his priorities and Democrats some of their priorities. So we think we've opened the door for that," Mulvaney said.

Democrats reacted negatively. "Everything had been moving smoothly until the administration moved in with a heavy hand. Not only are Democrats opposed to the wall, there is significant Republican opposition as well,” said Matt House, a spokesman for Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer.

* * *

Should the Trump and the GOP be unable to concede on some of the controversial demands floated in recent days, we expect the shut down odds to rise substantially, and instead of a "massive" tax cut, the most likely outcome may in fact be a closed government starting next weekend, and lasting for the foreseeable future.

The government was last forced to close in October 2013, when Republican Senator Ted Cruz and some of the most conservative House Republicans engineered a 17-day shutdown in an unsuccessful quest to kill Democratic former President Barack Obama's healthcare law. Meanwhile, the current Congress has passed no major legislation since Trump took office in January. Among his ambitions are hopes for major tax-cut legislation, infrastructure spending and other bills.

A federal closure would shutter National Park Service destinations like the Statue of Liberty, Yellowstone and the Grand Canyon. Government medical research would be suspended. Thousands of federal workers would be furloughed with thousands more working without pay until the shutdown ends, including homeland security personnel. Some veterans benefits could be suspended.

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InjectTheVenom's picture

Shut the fucker totally down temporarily, except for critical jobs.   While down, cut 20% of the fat effective immediately.   Reopen.   Now you're on the right track !

Md4's picture

Not everything has to reopen.

InjectTheVenom's picture

More lard :

>>>>    US.gov    OR

>>>>    Chris Christie

HockeyFool's picture

"that went sideways when White House pushed more confrontational approach on ObamaCare, immigration."

Got it. It's all Trumps fault. The democrats are not resposnible for anything, neiter are the RINOs.

 

The_Juggernaut's picture

The snide bitchy bullshit writing makes this sound like MSM, Russian or Chinese bullshit, but yeah, let's shut the fucker down. Maybe 5% of what the Feds do is of any benefit to society.

sincerely_yours's picture

"that went sideways when White House pushed more confrontational approach"

In appearance it's a good thing.

Unfortunately it'll result in nothing.

ACP's picture

If the shutdown lasts more than 2 weeks, start laying off workers permanently.

sincerely_yours's picture

50% of US workers are govt employees. What do you think will happen to the US economy?

wren's picture

Can they take their government regulations with them?

AVmaster's picture

I see nothing wrong with a shutdown and totally encourage it...

 

And will totally enjoy watching the leftards go into total meltdown as its "THEN END OF THE WORLD"!!!

 

Fuckin dipshits, all of them... You could put a hundred of them together and still wouldn't have enough brainpower to solve a simple non-common-core math problem...

 

>_>

Donald Trump's picture
Donald Trump (not verified) Caledonian Apr 21, 2017 4:49 PM

Trump needs to pull some big rabbits out of his hat. And pronto.

Looks like Congress is reigning him rather than the other way around...and who knows maybe if he won't give them their war, they will some day turn viciously against him and fake news won't be fake anymore:

Fake News: Woman Tells Dying Ex-Husband Fake Story about Trump Impeachment to Ease His Pain

http://dailywesterner.com/news/2017-04-21/fake-news-woman-tells-dying-ex...


musimann's picture

If they could shut down Trump's messed up brain and big fat mouth then I'm for it.
Also looking forward to his impeachment. He's a lunatic and unfit to hold office.

dr kill's picture

Is that you Maxine?  

Manthong's picture

I would idolize him to my grave if he would shut it all down permanently.

Well, I can dream great things, can’t I?

Tarzan's picture

I'm anxious to see if they close the Federal Parks this time.  Close the fat lady down, and let it stay shut, likely, unless they purposely try to make it painful, we'll get along much better without the dogs of DC!

 

Democrats Using Government Shutdown to Punish Citizens

 

We all remember that when the dreaded sequester cuts (which weren't cuts at all) went into effect, the Obama administration told federal agencies to cut back in those areas that would most inconvenience the public....

 

The media is eagerly reporting every closed museum, monument, and hot dog stand they can find, all in an attempt to lay the blame solely upon Republicans. What they are not reporting (intentionally) is that the government is forcing private institutions to close during the shutdown and, in some places, are spending more money to keep an area closed than it would to have it open. One such place that has been forced to shutter its doors is the Claude Moore Colonial Farm in Virginia. This park is privately-funded, yet the government has forced it to close as it lies upon Park Service land. An official of the farm said that their staff was on the job, but that the Park Service was barring people from entering. The managing director of the park, Anna Eberly, said in response to the Park Service saying that parks have to be closed because they cannot afford staff during the government shutdown, "What utter crap. We have operated the Farm successfully for 32 years after the NPS cut the Farm from its budget in 1980 and are fully staffed and prepared to open today. But there are barricades at the Pavilions and entrance to the Farm. And if you were to park on the grass and visit on your own, you run the risk of being arrested. Of course, that will cost the NPS staff salaries to police the Farm against intruders while leaving it open will cost them nothing.”

PrayingMantis's picture

An Ode To Casa Blanca

Trumpty Drumpfty sat on his "Wall"
Trumpty Drumpfty had a great fall
All the (((King's))) whores and all the (((King's))) munchkins
Couldn't put Trumpty Drumpfty together again.

PM

MaxMax's picture

The federal parks cost what % if the federal budget?  Sure, the close the things that most affect the public, but don't shut down the things were the real spending is.  Most of the furloughed government workers get their salary paid back once the government reopens so not only did the shutdown not save money, but we just give the workers extra paid vacation.

Lorca's Novena's picture

*citation needed*

besides rambling some unfactual Rachel Madcow bullshit...

TeamDepends's picture

Face it champ, Hillary lost. And bigly. But that's only part of the reason you are so upset. The disastrous Reign Of Progressivism is over. You know it, we know it. Each and every weeknight Tucker Carlson exposes you fools for the brainwashed, indoctrinated, PC, over/under educated yet blindingly ignorant commies that you are. History will not be kind to the Clintons or Obongodinga, while Trump's history is unwritten.

renaissance2008's picture

Ditch cable tv, you don't need some show host to think for you !
Think outside the box, you'll feel better....

Croesus's picture

I wish Trump would take that rabbit, and shove it right up your ass, you useless asshole.

Post-Truth Society's picture

You and your Muslim buddy Trump will both rot in hell together.

You are the useless asshole.  I wish Trump would shove himself up your ass.

Economy-X's picture

The only thing Trump will be pulling out of his hat (or ass more likely) is a new comb over to distract further from his neo-con conversion and abysmal betrayal of America. No representation, no taxes. No Government, no problem. A shut down is a step in the right direction!! So sad, but so true

https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B06Y16TPS9/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=149...

TheLastTrump's picture

Oh, this is where all the leftist shills, sock puppet masturbators & morally confused Ron PaulBotz racists are. I missed y'all on the other threads.

 

Go fuck yourselves.

 

One simple answer to all the anti Trump FUCKS whining & crying about TRUMP:

 

The fact that illegal immigration is down almost 70 fucking percent year over year is a fucking MIRACLE. And it's JUST GETTING STARTED.

 

GOD Bless America and fuck you if you don't agree.

SoDamnMad's picture

Give each federal worker a thick copy of the Federal Register to read while they are off or to burn to stay warm or to boil and eat if they get hungry.

ElTerco's picture

Agreed. They won't be working, but they'll still be getting paid, so they can use that time to go shopping and put the charges on credit cards during the "unemployed" float period.

Withdrawn Sanction's picture

If a factory furloughs workers for a month or 2 because sales (revenues) are down, those workers have to find ways to support themselves in the meantime, and they dont get backpay when they return to work later.  Government "workers" should receive the same treatment.  If big G shuts down, no back pay for the civil "servants" whenever it starts back up.  

wren's picture

50% of US workers are govt employees. What do you think will happen to the US economy?

If that is correct, the banks will own all their homes if they can keep it shut down for 4 months. Gotta love our debt based currency enslavement lifestyle without the benefit of actual ownership...

TheLastTrump's picture

BULLSHIT about 16% of Americans work for any type of govt. That's FAKE NEWZ.

Arrow4Truth's picture

16%?!?! Think about that. That's 16 fucking percent of Americans, while 1/3 of those that otherwise could be working, are not. The U$ government is the largest employer on earth, and adds no value. The apathetic people are paying for their fucking empirical nation building schemes and genocide, and the pentacon cannot even account for $6+ Trillion they've spent. Remember that when the U$ is viewed as a pariah and is no longer allowed to play in any reindeer games. I quit paying for their fucking criminal behavior 10 years ago. Fuck them, and fuck off.

Stuck on Zero's picture

Guaranteed: US government employees, defense contractors, Wall Street, and other darlings of the deep state will not suffer any losses whatsoever. Only the public will suffer.

Chief Wonder Bread's picture

-- 50% of US workers are govt employees. What do you think will happen to the US economy?

2 years of pain, then 20 years of good times

PT's picture

<Yawn>  Yet another US govt shut down.  How many is that now?  I thought it was just a standard part of your operating cycle.

Nobody For President's picture

50% of US workers are govt employees. What do you think will happen to the US economy?

 

Bad statistics: we are only talking FEDERAL govt employees, and not all of them - some 'critical' employees (and entire agencies) are exempt from the so called 'shutdown'. And, if the past is guidance, when the gubernment 'repopens', all 'lost' wages are restored.

Here is another statistic (OK, a poll - I know....)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/208472/congress-approval-drops-down-february-...

The surprise is 20% of the amurican people actually approve of the job congress is doing. How long have they known the debt ceiling was coming up? And now, after a vacation, they have 4 days to deal with it?

They will, after an expenditure of a shitload of hot air, shut down the National park service for a couple of weeks, and that will be the end of it.

Useless fuckers. We need term limits, which we will never get.

Arrow4Truth's picture

The pathetic part is in spite of all that, you continue to pay for it.

BrownCoat's picture

"that went sideways..."

@ sincerely_yours,

Yep. When national govt shuts down, the govt workers get time off with pay. That happened the last two times the national govt shut down (Gingrich 1995, and 2003).

Bottom line, tax revenue gets on government parasites while the parasites don't even work.

IntTheLight's picture

No they don't. It's because the government chose to pay them after it reopened. I don't know that this administration will do that. I hope not.

stocker84's picture

Fuck you, jew boy.

You think you're fooling anybody by pointing the finger at "the other Jews"?

 

Lore's picture

The last, biggest, most dangerous and ultimately devastating bubble of all is the SUPER-BUBBLE OF GOVERNMENT, also called PATHOCRACY. The masses have been brainwashed to accept as 'normal' these conditions of debt and capital mis-allocation and manipulation and exploitation that are symptomatic of unchecked, hyper-complex, hyper-corrupt, SUPER-BUBBLE GOVERNMENT as it attempts to sustain itself and grow like a cancer, fighting the self-corrective laws of nature and the balance that comes with pursuit of truth.

"Truth is treason in an empire of lies." - Orwell

Pandelis's picture

"Art of the Deal" ... it is all there

A. Boaty's picture

"I play to people's fantasies. People want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest and the most spectacular. I call it truthful hyperbole. It's an innocent form of exaggeration - and a very effective form of promotion."

From "The Art of the Deal" by Donald J. Trump

As you say, all there.

CheapBastard's picture

All of you can worry about antifa, North Korea, wall street fraud and so on this weekend....but I'm going to relax an dworkout with Ivanal!

 

Ivanka Trump’s Secrets to Staying in Shape

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/weightloss/ivanka-trump%e2%80%99s-secre...

It's interesting when they asked young girls and women at the recent RNC pow-wow who their role model is, they rapidly said eithr Kelly Ann Conway or Ivanka Trump (both excellent choices--smart beautiful and wealthy).

At the DNC they asked the same question and women and girls just looked blank...had no clue who their role model might be. Perhaps Lena Dunham or Rosia O'Donnell? Whoopi GoulBerg for others maybe?

Nobody For President's picture

Chelsea? The Wookie?

Actually, if I really wanted to get snarky about it (I don't ) ask the young boys and men at same pow-wows who *their* role model is. I don't think either party has a wealth of options...

phlat6's picture

Only if they'll return %95 of my tax payments. Which will never happen.