Trump Administration Begins Quiet Preparations For Government Shutdown

Tyler Durden's picture

Even as Donald Trump is desperate to show to the US population, and especially his voter base, some actual achievement before his first 100 days run out next weekend, prompting him to tell AP that he will unveil a "tremendous" tax ut plan next week (recall he did the same in February), the Trump administration is quietly preparing for the possibility of a government shutdown, even though the president and his staff believe one is unlikely to occur. 

With the Senate reconvening on Monday and the House of Representatives on Tuesday after a two-week recess, lawmakers will have only four days to pass a spending package to keep the government open beyond April 28, when funding expires for numerous federal programs. "I think we want to keep the government open," Trump said on Thursday, adding he thinks Congress can pass the funding legislation and perhaps also a revamped healthcare bill.

Trump's wish may be problematic: as a reminder, the government will shut down midnight on April 28 if Congress cannot agree on a spending bill. As reported over the past week, the measure hit various snags over Trump's demands to include funding for Trump’s border wall and a debate over money for an ObamaCare insurer subsidy program, both programs which virtually assure the spending bill will not pass.

As a result, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has begun to coordinate with government agencies to plan for a possible shutdown. “While we do not expect a lapse, prudence and common sense require routine assessments will be made,” OMB Director Mick Mulvaney said in a statement.

The office set up a phone call to go over the agencies’ shutdown plans, which could include steps such as furloughs for federal workers.  The OMB said the plans were reviewed ahead of a possible shutdown last December and are unlikely to be revised.

As Compass Point analyst Isaac Boltansky, notes, "wall funding is just one of many policy potholes that could disrupt negotiations, including ACA cost-sharing subsidies, coal miner benefits, sanctuary cities."

To be sure, Congress can avoid a full-blown shutdown if it passes a short-term spending measure to keep the government open while negotiations over a broader funding deal continue, but even that process has been put into question.

"I think we're in good shape," President Trump said when asked about the possibility of a shutdown. “We remain confident we’re not going to have a shutdown,” White House press secretary Sean Spicer told reporters at a separate off-camera briefing, calling the preparation “required steps” for the federal agencies and departments.

Some analysts disagree with the optimistic assessment.

According to Cowen's Chris Kruger "shutdown theatrics reach fever pitch next week, with one-week punt most likely outcome" however he focuses on the "White House’s misconception they have any leverage with Democrats when it’s the opposite, as Congressional Democrats have less than zero incentive to compromise with Trump and Trump needs them to keep govt from shutting down."

As such unless Trump concedes to all demands, not only is a full spending bill out of the question, but even a short-term agreement appears precarious.

More ominously, Kruger adds that "until this week, shutdown threat seemed very low as Congressional GOP leadership, appropriators hammered out spending agreements, were on same page as Democrats; that went sideways when White House pushed more confrontational approach on ObamaCare, immigration."

Meanwhile, Height Securities' Peter Cohn has noted the House Democrats taking a hard line against even one-week stopgap continuing resolution (CR) "due to unresolved White House demands on funding wall construction, withholding funds from sanctuary cities."

He sees 25% odds for temporary partial shutdown, with path to deal including boost for border "security" funds (not wall), added military funding. Others, such as Goldman see shutdown odds at one in three (and rising).

As Reuters adds, leading House Democrats were voicing skepticism a deal could be reached by the deadline. In a telephone call for House Democrats, Representative Nita Lowey, the senior Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, said: "I don't see how we can meet that deadline" and avoid having to pass a short-term extension, according to an aide on the call. The second-ranking House Democrat, Representative Steny Hoyer, told his fellow Democrats that they should only support such a short-term measure if a deal on long-term bill is reached and only finishing touches remained, the aide said.

Republican leaders face a familiar balancing act: satisfying the party's most conservative members while not alienating its moderates.

Rules in the 100-seat Senate mean Trump's party also would need the support of at least eight Democrats even if the Republicans remain unified, giving the opposition party leverage. House Republican leaders would need some Democratic votes if the most conservative lawmakers object to the bill, as they did to the healthcare plan championed by Speaker Paul Ryan. With congressional elections looming next year, Republicans acknowledge the stakes are high.

"Even our most recalcitrant members understand that if you shut down the government while you're running it and you control the House and the Senate, you can't blame anybody but yourself," said Representative Tom Cole, a senior House Appropriations Committee Republican.

White House budget director Mick Mulvaney said the Trump administration was willing to talk to Democrats about funding for Obamacare subsidies in exchange for their agreement to include some Trump priorities such as the wall, the defense hike and more money for immigration enforcement. "It is ripe for some type of negotiated agreement that gives the president some of his priorities and Democrats some of their priorities. So we think we've opened the door for that," Mulvaney said.

Democrats reacted negatively. "Everything had been moving smoothly until the administration moved in with a heavy hand. Not only are Democrats opposed to the wall, there is significant Republican opposition as well,” said Matt House, a spokesman for Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer.

* * *

Should the Trump and the GOP be unable to concede on some of the controversial demands floated in recent days, we expect the shut down odds to rise substantially, and instead of a "massive" tax cut, the most likely outcome may in fact be a closed government starting next weekend, and lasting for the foreseeable future.

The government was last forced to close in October 2013, when Republican Senator Ted Cruz and some of the most conservative House Republicans engineered a 17-day shutdown in an unsuccessful quest to kill Democratic former President Barack Obama's healthcare law. Meanwhile, the current Congress has passed no major legislation since Trump took office in January. Among his ambitions are hopes for major tax-cut legislation, infrastructure spending and other bills.

A federal closure would shutter National Park Service destinations like the Statue of Liberty, Yellowstone and the Grand Canyon. Government medical research would be suspended. Thousands of federal workers would be furloughed with thousands more working without pay until the shutdown ends, including homeland security personnel. Some veterans benefits could be suspended.

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Jack Oliver's picture

They do have an insatiable appetite for FUCKING chaos - So a government shutdown could be on the cards !!

CultiVader's picture

During the last run up to shutdown I was in uni. The topic came up in an Eng. lit class. Among the whining voices I piped up, " shut it down. Let's see what happens. The govt. wastes our money." Massive pearl clutching ensued. I was the class villain. "But what about the poor? The elderly? The BABIES!" I responded that charity and social support systems should be run by the private sector, just like it was done back in the good ole days. Silence.

I made some enemies in that class, but a few came around later and privately told me they supported my position.

roisaber's picture

Shut it down, shut it all down. Shut down food stamps Mr. President, and we'll take care of the fallout for you.

ToSoft4Truth's picture

If Trump isn't Deep Sate, Trump should go on TV, give us the blame speech and then resign using Twitter. 

Sudden Debt's picture

That would be the honorable thing to do.

But the downside is that the elites would just fill the void and make things even worse.

There's no more options left.

We're at 1 second before the final blow of the American empire.

If they raise the debt ceiling, there's no more point of return. And that point of return we still have is already a very shaky one to say the least.

People trust you untill they don't.

And that's America's problem. America is painting itself into a corner.

ToSoft4Truth's picture

The alternative is Trump calls us downtown for the wet-work offering all participants clemency. 

One of We's picture

Mass seppuku would be the honorable thing for 99% of.gov to do....

Carpe Tutti Bastardi's picture

Why should he resign?

Do you even realize how many of his campaign 'pronunciations' (could even call them promises)

that he has already accomplished. A hell of a lot more than any faux 'republican' has accomplished

in all the years that the republicans have been BS'ing that they would do if they had the House...

and then if they had the Senate and if only they had the Presidency, and now that they have them

all they (the Republicans) are fighting him every step of the way. All of the changes that he had so far

accomplished he has had to accomplish using executive orders. Think about that before you so flipantly

criticize him.

Mr T's picture

Lets call all the good things you claim he has done the Golden Fleece. Lets call the Syria Yemen Iraqi Afghani north Korea kinetic escalations bigly a Turd.  

Now polish the Turd with the Golden Fleece.

Carpe Tutti Bastardi's picture

North Korea? President Trump has a valid reason for actions being taken. Why even China

is siding with President Trump's stance and reactions in NK.

The Middle East.....I must admit that I was more than disappointed and disillusioned by

his seemingly irrational reaction to the "sarin gas" incident, but considering a lot of his

strategies and actions seem to turn out for the better for him and us, so let's give him

some leeway and see if his strategy works in the middle east and with Russia.

AR15AU's picture

Trumps leverage with the Democrats? Easy - THEY ARE THE ONES WHO DEPEND ON GOVERNMENT... 

 

Trumps leverage is simple, just shut it down and sit there laughing... do it for FOUR YEARS, that'd be fantastic. 

Sudden Debt's picture

Isn't there anybody who is pubblicly panicking about ANOTHER debt increase???

 

THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO SHUT DOWN!!!

THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO OPERATE ON A SAFETY MODE

CUT ALL EXPENSES UNTILL THE DEBT IS BROUGHT DOWN TO PRE CRISIS LEVELS!!!

THAT MEANS 3 YEARS OF BASIC GOVERNMENT!!!!

 

3 YEARS OF PAIN COULD RESTORE AMERICA!!!

3 YEARS OF PAIN COULD MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!!

DON'T WAIT UNTILL IT DEFAULTS PERMANENTLY!!! BECAUSE THEN IT WILL BE 3 DECADES OF PAIN!!!

3 YEARS NOW OR 30 YEARS LATER!!

AND LATER IS IN 4 TO 8 YEARS FROM NOW!!!!

 

SO IF YOU'RE YOUNGER THEN 70 YEARS OLD, GO FOR THE 3 YEARS OF PAIN!!!

THE WEAK WILL TELL YOU TO TAKE ANOTHER DRUG SHOT AND THAT EVERYTHING WILL TURN FINE OUT BY ITSELF, I WON'T!!!!

gdpetti's picture

This is how they 'pull the rug out'... and Trump is perfect for this part in our shared global reality tv show... he's like Jimmy Carter... no idea WTF is really going on, thus he believes the BS they tell him... about this being the way to do things... to 'fix' things... etc etc.

earleflorida's picture

me thinks, 'this spoil'd child president (whom never grew up) has cried 'Wolf'[?]', oh ?...?  all too often?!?

Carpe Tutti Bastardi's picture

You actually think 'you think'?

Boy, are you delusional!

blindman's picture

first they starve the locals then they relocate
the swamp creatures to more nutrient rich habitats
or ecosystems, thereby turning that space and place
into the next swamp. ah...
.
'relocate and feed the swamp creatures, and fuck hope'. there
the next political slogan to attain the
powerful levers of influence.
.
trust no man, somebody said it.
.
Steve Earle - Guitar Town (eTown webisode #765)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8xt_BLah_g

Omega_Man's picture

shut down plus war

orangegeek's picture

Even as Donald Trump is desperate to show to the US population, and especially his voter base, some actual achievement....

 

Really Tylers???

 

You working for fake news now???

Trump is doing just fine - the RINOs need to get the fuck out of the way and that's not going to happen.

ronaldwilsonreagan's picture

Trump is a moron and your delusional.

orangegeek's picture

FUCK OFF SNOWFLAKE!!!

 

oh wait, call the nigga back - maybe he can be appointed back into office by the unicorns

 

 

 

 

IdioTsincracY's picture

Terms like snowflake and nigga are the screens behind which ignorants and feeble minds hide.

That might work when surrounded by other morons, but today you're out of luck.

blindman's picture

Dear Mister Fantasy play us a tune
Something to make us all happy
Do anything take us out of this gloom
Sing a song, play guitar
Make it snappy
You are the one who can make us all laugh
But doing that you break out in tears
Please don't be sad if it was a straight mind you had
We wouldn't have known you all these years
Oooo Ahhhhh
Oooo Ahhhhh
Oooo Ahhhhh
Oooo Ahhhhh Ahhhhh

Dear Mister Fantasy play us a tune
Something to make us all happy
Do anything take us out of this gloom
Sing a song, play guitar
Make it snappy
Yeah, yeah

[Instrumental]

Dear Mister Fantasy play us a tune
Something to make us all happy
Do anything take us out of this gloom
Sing a song, play guitar
Make it snappy
You are the one who can make us all laugh
But doing that you break out in tears
Please don't be sad if it was a straight mind you had
We wouldn't have known you all these years
.
Steve Winwood - Dear Mr. Fantasy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DYC61HzmtM
.
who is ellen brown?

One of We's picture

Great song but I prefer the Dead version with Brent Midland on vocals.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tiprp6pa9w

 

SummerSausage's picture

Your utopian Venezuela has some reality to show you.  Why are you still here?

TheLastTrump's picture

Yeah brother...you noticed....I think the Tylers are Ron Paulists. I don't know if they are Jew bashers or racists like a lot of them but I can see that they are deliberately playing to that crowd with some of their FAKE NEWZ clickbait headlines & prognostications. It's probably just for clicks & nothing personal.

 

 

"Oh, this is where all the leftist shills, sock puppet masturbators & morally confused Ron PaulBotz racists are. I missed y'all on the other threads.

 

Go fuck yourselves.

 

One simple answer to all the anti Trump FUCKS whining & crying about TRUMP:

 

The fact that illegal immigration is down almost 70 fucking percent year over year is a fucking MIRACLE. And it's JUST GETTING STARTED.

 

GOD Bless America and fuck you if you don't agree."

ronaldwilsonreagan's picture

Just another moron in retardville. Next time vote for kid rock LOL

Deep Snorkeler's picture

America cannot be made into a modern state.

Our children live in free-form chaos.

An entire government suffering from intellectual disabilities

and no one knows how to help them.

I have persistent feelings of dread.

I surf in the wake of the Shinano.

TheLastTrump's picture

Most of the world wants to come to America. People are actually DYING to get into America. People wait for YEARS on emigration waiting lists.

 

Your anti American posts are lying leftist shilling.

 

You get some things partly right but you can't say America is "all this" or "all that" because it simply isn't the way you imply.

 

Are people beating down the doors to get into Russia, tovarich? Iran? :)

IdioTsincracY's picture

MAGA

MASA: Make America a Swamp Again

Salsa Verde's picture

You have to shut the government down to show people how much they do not need it.

One of We's picture

Which is exactly why it will never be shut down.   They might "have" to release a few thousand violent criminals, or stop fixing potholes and plowing roads, pay armed guards to keep you out of public spaces, drop a few more crates of ammo for ISIS and touch off a few MK-ultra staged humanoids but the government will never remove a non-essential unconstitutional government jobbiejob on purpose.

sheikurbootie's picture

The last government shut down ended up being a paid vacation.  All of the many thousands of needless government employees were paid backpay for the period they were out of work.  What a scam!

AE911Truth's picture

Agreed. Shut it down and leave it shutdown.
Perhaps this is why Trump pays his admin independently.

south40_dreams's picture

Shut it down for a long needed rest

Duc888's picture

 

 

OT but interesting.

 

PetroDollar created with Saudi Arabia... and now the Sauds are walking away and joining BRICS.

https://geopolitics.co/2017/04/21/saudi-arabia-switching-to-brics-allian...

 

 

SnottyBubbles's picture

 

I'll bite on that.

 

I used to think Bretton Woods mattered a lot. I’ve deep dived my rationale for 5 years and have concluded Bretton Woods is a 20th century fossil that if not failed, is doomed to extinction. It did define the economic order in the world for 75-some year and the benchmark for our economic experienced worldview. But for the last 2 years it’s become progressively and largely obsolete. The institutions don’t work (IMF, World Bank). The US policing free trade is not wanted by ½ the world and too expensive for us and voters don’t much care.


My new rethink is that it's over. The $ is simply the worlds one and only wealth storage vehicle. All other currencies are soft. There are no real or theoretical challengers in the 21st century and beyond.

Saudi Arabia and Iran are in a shooting war … Iran is a BRIC. Saudi’s need us more than they need BRIC. Sanctions idled BRIC Russia is Saudi Arabia’s strategic oil market share competitor. Russia’s aligned with Saud’s shooting enemies Iran and Syria.

 

 We don’t need the ME oil. If the Saudi’s join BRIC … so what? It’s the ‘twilight of the 20th century’ kabuki.

 

 There will be war among the parties. Nothing less than Saudi state survival is at stake. The Saud’s and Kuwait will really need to fight mightily to keep their domain. But, a new global order will form around the demand for stuff for the wholly self-sufficient US. A far better trade arrangement is made when the treaty requester needs the stuff we have.

    

LOL123's picture

Pretty sure we will have a gov shut down for a few days, if for no other reason, then to remind Trump who really controls our Government... The Rothschild ( Hillary backed candidate) private Federal Reserve.. Pressure from above and below....

TemporarySecurity's picture

Pretty sure most of the government will shut down every weekend.

If Trump chooses not to try and punish Americans 99% of us would not notice anything for extended time.  Critical services like defense never shut down.  A vacation from gates being shut at national parks would be welcome.

LOL123's picture

Oct 1,2013 gov shut down for 16 days due to dems not accepting repubs obamacare defunding proposals.

It cost the country 24billion ( 15 bill per day). 

Military operations get paid twice a month- they got partial pay and then retropay when deal was made.

VA finance benefits were disrupted.

800,000 fed employees out of work without pay... Million other workers pay was delayed.....it's a little more than park gates closed.

 

2_legs_bahhhhhd's picture

more proof that government employees are nothing more than a liability to taxpayers.

aloha_snakbar's picture

Not my government... you assholes do whatever you want. Lately when you speak, it is like so much vaginal queef in a hurricane...stinky white noise...

JLee2027's picture

You live in America? You a US Citizen? Then yeah your Government. Otherwise, no reason for you to comment at all.

aloha_snakbar's picture

Yeah I live here... by the people, for the people (moron) except when it is not, which is all of the time. I am just one person, so I cannot change the evil that is .gov. One thing I CAN do is reject their reality and supplant it with my own

Bobrsta's picture

So, you refuse to pay protection,err, taxes, to these tyrants?

JLee2027's picture

OT:

 

I figured out that a mere $9 per gallon tax on gasoline and you can remove/repeal/throw out Income tax entirely.  If that doesn't work, make it $2 more per gallon and $7 on every item imported. Something like that.   My point being that the income tax is completely un-necessary, there only to enslave and control people. Your income is none of the Governments business.

 

The entire income tax system is a pile of evil that must be destroyed.

AE911Truth's picture

The Stanley Meyer project would love to see a $9 per gallon gasoline tax.

As would BrilliantLight Power also.

JLee2027's picture

It's just an example. Usage taxes can easily replace the entire Income Tax revenue. This would probably save 100 billion a year. No more tax forms or 130+ million returns to process. An army of lawyers, clerks, accountants out of work is a small price to pay for the un-imaginable freedom this would bring.