Trump Administration Begins Quiet Preparations For Government Shutdown

Tyler Durden's picture

Even as Donald Trump is desperate to show to the US population, and especially his voter base, some actual achievement before his first 100 days run out next weekend, prompting him to tell AP that he will unveil a "tremendous" tax ut plan next week (recall he did the same in February), the Trump administration is quietly preparing for the possibility of a government shutdown, even though the president and his staff believe one is unlikely to occur. 

With the Senate reconvening on Monday and the House of Representatives on Tuesday after a two-week recess, lawmakers will have only four days to pass a spending package to keep the government open beyond April 28, when funding expires for numerous federal programs. "I think we want to keep the government open," Trump said on Thursday, adding he thinks Congress can pass the funding legislation and perhaps also a revamped healthcare bill.

Trump's wish may be problematic: as a reminder, the government will shut down midnight on April 28 if Congress cannot agree on a spending bill. As reported over the past week, the measure hit various snags over Trump's demands to include funding for Trump’s border wall and a debate over money for an ObamaCare insurer subsidy program, both programs which virtually assure the spending bill will not pass.

As a result, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has begun to coordinate with government agencies to plan for a possible shutdown. “While we do not expect a lapse, prudence and common sense require routine assessments will be made,” OMB Director Mick Mulvaney said in a statement.

The office set up a phone call to go over the agencies’ shutdown plans, which could include steps such as furloughs for federal workers.  The OMB said the plans were reviewed ahead of a possible shutdown last December and are unlikely to be revised.

As Compass Point analyst Isaac Boltansky, notes, "wall funding is just one of many policy potholes that could disrupt negotiations, including ACA cost-sharing subsidies, coal miner benefits, sanctuary cities."

To be sure, Congress can avoid a full-blown shutdown if it passes a short-term spending measure to keep the government open while negotiations over a broader funding deal continue, but even that process has been put into question.

"I think we're in good shape," President Trump said when asked about the possibility of a shutdown. “We remain confident we’re not going to have a shutdown,” White House press secretary Sean Spicer told reporters at a separate off-camera briefing, calling the preparation “required steps” for the federal agencies and departments.

Some analysts disagree with the optimistic assessment.

According to Cowen's Chris Kruger "shutdown theatrics reach fever pitch next week, with one-week punt most likely outcome" however he focuses on the "White House’s misconception they have any leverage with Democrats when it’s the opposite, as Congressional Democrats have less than zero incentive to compromise with Trump and Trump needs them to keep govt from shutting down."

As such unless Trump concedes to all demands, not only is a full spending bill out of the question, but even a short-term agreement appears precarious.

More ominously, Kruger adds that "until this week, shutdown threat seemed very low as Congressional GOP leadership, appropriators hammered out spending agreements, were on same page as Democrats; that went sideways when White House pushed more confrontational approach on ObamaCare, immigration."

Meanwhile, Height Securities' Peter Cohn has noted the House Democrats taking a hard line against even one-week stopgap continuing resolution (CR) "due to unresolved White House demands on funding wall construction, withholding funds from sanctuary cities."

He sees 25% odds for temporary partial shutdown, with path to deal including boost for border "security" funds (not wall), added military funding. Others, such as Goldman see shutdown odds at one in three (and rising).

As Reuters adds, leading House Democrats were voicing skepticism a deal could be reached by the deadline. In a telephone call for House Democrats, Representative Nita Lowey, the senior Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, said: "I don't see how we can meet that deadline" and avoid having to pass a short-term extension, according to an aide on the call. The second-ranking House Democrat, Representative Steny Hoyer, told his fellow Democrats that they should only support such a short-term measure if a deal on long-term bill is reached and only finishing touches remained, the aide said.

Republican leaders face a familiar balancing act: satisfying the party's most conservative members while not alienating its moderates.

Rules in the 100-seat Senate mean Trump's party also would need the support of at least eight Democrats even if the Republicans remain unified, giving the opposition party leverage. House Republican leaders would need some Democratic votes if the most conservative lawmakers object to the bill, as they did to the healthcare plan championed by Speaker Paul Ryan. With congressional elections looming next year, Republicans acknowledge the stakes are high.

"Even our most recalcitrant members understand that if you shut down the government while you're running it and you control the House and the Senate, you can't blame anybody but yourself," said Representative Tom Cole, a senior House Appropriations Committee Republican.

White House budget director Mick Mulvaney said the Trump administration was willing to talk to Democrats about funding for Obamacare subsidies in exchange for their agreement to include some Trump priorities such as the wall, the defense hike and more money for immigration enforcement. "It is ripe for some type of negotiated agreement that gives the president some of his priorities and Democrats some of their priorities. So we think we've opened the door for that," Mulvaney said.

Democrats reacted negatively. "Everything had been moving smoothly until the administration moved in with a heavy hand. Not only are Democrats opposed to the wall, there is significant Republican opposition as well,” said Matt House, a spokesman for Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer.

* * *

Should the Trump and the GOP be unable to concede on some of the controversial demands floated in recent days, we expect the shut down odds to rise substantially, and instead of a "massive" tax cut, the most likely outcome may in fact be a closed government starting next weekend, and lasting for the foreseeable future.

The government was last forced to close in October 2013, when Republican Senator Ted Cruz and some of the most conservative House Republicans engineered a 17-day shutdown in an unsuccessful quest to kill Democratic former President Barack Obama's healthcare law. Meanwhile, the current Congress has passed no major legislation since Trump took office in January. Among his ambitions are hopes for major tax-cut legislation, infrastructure spending and other bills.

A federal closure would shutter National Park Service destinations like the Statue of Liberty, Yellowstone and the Grand Canyon. Government medical research would be suspended. Thousands of federal workers would be furloughed with thousands more working without pay until the shutdown ends, including homeland security personnel. Some veterans benefits could be suspended.

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TheLastTrump's picture

I like the way you think, not for the first time.

 

Go for the lawyers first, the problem will be self correcting. Don't forget there's an occaisional good one.

TheLastTrump's picture

It costs me about $650 to get my taxes done, and another $250 for my son. I imagine all the effort expended is another 20-30 hours annually, or maybe $1200 in labor. So about $2k for this family.

 

Then they take the thousands I send them and send it to other nations that want to kill me and my family. Sweet.

 

Sure let's give leftists in Africa a paycheck, let them study the mating habits of lesbian tsetse flies.

 

Meanwhile the roads & bridges are deteriorating in front of my eyes, and the progressive fucks in charge of my state want to RAISE those taxes AGAIN because they're running out of our fucking money to pay for the illegals swarming this once fine state.

 

Christopher Kringle's picture

"The Tax Code represents the genius of legal fiction...  The IRS has never really known why people pay the income tax... The IRS encourages voluntary compliance, through FEAR."

-Jack Warren Wade Jr., former IRS officer in charge of the IRS Nationwide Revenue Officer Training Program

If you don't work for the federal gov't, you don't have to pay.  Simple as that.  Do your homework and then enjoy the use of your own funds.  You will need to put in some personal effort since your tax experts will not do anything to destroy their honeypot... meaning your ignorance of the law. 

http://losthorizons.com/BulletinBoard.htm

aloha_snakbar's picture

Uncle Scam shucking and jivving... same as it ever was...

cheech_wizard's picture

An oldie but a goodie...

Cut spending.

Standard Disclaimer: Somewhere along the way, that phrase was removed from the brains of all politicians. My guess is surgery.

http://paddedcell.com.au/psychosurgery_dude.jpg

 

Brindle702's picture

It's not the shutting down that's bad, it's the opening back up.

TheLastTrump's picture

It's not the fall that kills you, but the landing?

Jeepers Creepers's picture

It would be a perfect way to get around our ridiculous "civil service" laws by firing large swaths of people during the government shutdown.

Make the Deep State agents file for unemployment.

Bobrsta's picture

Shut down, then shutter it. We don't need, and there's no Constitutional authority for, about 90% of it. But it wont happen as it will let the plebes see all too clearly that a yuge federal government isn't necessary and actually counter productive

Grandad Grumps's picture

Shut it all down except for the FAA. Send the Pentagon, the CIA, NSA, FBO, DIA, All of Homeland Security, Departments of Education, Justice, EPA, Congres etc. all home and don't invite them back.

Give the taxes back to the states and lets see if they can do a better job.

TheLastTrump's picture

Sure, you Russians would love to see our Pentagon disappear, wouldn't you?

 

I think our CIA is doing fine work if they're hacking N. Korean missiles. That's James Bond shit right there.

 

We'll find the little communist cocknockers that leaked classified materials & make an example out of them.

 

 

DjangoCat's picture

Troll much?  Is the pay good?  Where do I sign up?

TheLastTrump's picture

I toll the leftist fucks & racist anti semite PaulBotz QUITE A BIT, yes. Fucking love it.

 

Sorry, I don't get paid. Some say I'm an Israeli Hasbro troll, if it makes you feel better hop on that train.

Abaco's picture

Fuck the FAA.  No authority for it either.

Basilian's picture

trump is just a lying turd --

IdioTsincracY's picture

I agree on the lying part, but the real turds are his supporters

cheech_wizard's picture

"Johnny, tell them what they've won!"

http://static.shoplightspeed.com/shops/605501/files/001538539/averys-ave...

Standard Disclaimer: No Sanders strawberry socialism drink yet, but I'm sure they are working on it.


quax's picture

He is just the orange one that floats on top, the one that all the others turds aspire to be.

TheLastTrump's picture

There you are you special little lying snowflake bitch. Been covering it up for weeks.....

 

I think some of the hatred towards President Trump may come from a touch of jealousy about his money & his pussy. You & I are not in his league, chill.

LOL123's picture

Hummm red, black and white.... Nazi?????

TheLastTrump's picture

It goes with the territory around here.

 

It's interesting that the same posters who spew Trump hate 24/7 also seem to account for a lot of the Jew Zionist conspiracy theory types. It's a thoughtless lowbrow sort of thing.

 

There is a conspiracy gents, but it's made of stuff you can't see & like Ghostbusters, you need specialised weapons to fight it.

LOL123's picture

John Mearsheimer and Stephan Wait- The Israeli lobby and foreign Policy

In per capita terms , the United States gives each Israeli a direct subsidy worth about 500 per year. Israel gets about 3 billion in direct foreign assistance each year which is roughly one fifth of Americas entire foreign budget... All this in spite the fact that Israel is the 2nd wealthyist industrial state with a per capita income equal to south korea or Spain... Technology being their main industry.

 

 

ElTerco's picture

When you elect a salesman to do non-sales work, you get what you deserve.

silverserfer's picture

20T is a significant psycological barrier neither party wants to have their name on. At least the income from ilicit drugs is stil coming in for the tribe

TePikoElPozo's picture

well, of course the government has shut down... today is a holiday

national drug testing day (4/21)

aloha_snakbar's picture

That was yesterday... a double whammy: 4:20 on 4/20...

Ghost of Porky's picture

Do it. I will throw a party.

WTFUD's picture

From my point of view, i love Farage, he done did a lot for Don in the last few months, however, WTF, Julian Assange did done 100 times more AND YET , Commander-In-Chief is allowing his MUTTS Pompous & Sissysod to go after him AS IF he ain't SUFFERED/SACRIFICED more than ANYONE with a skin in this FUBAR GIG. TAXES, who cares if 40% of the work-force are unemployed/under-employed?

Wahooo's picture

The Orange Guy is perfectly suited to government work. The shutdown will give more time to don colorful baby clothes and head to the golf course.

pocomotion's picture

Do not wary my fellow American's of These  United States of Israeli Occupation, USIO.  We will come through this shutdown being better listeners, followers and sufferers.

God will have final judgement on Carl Marx, Albert Pike and Jared Kushner on judgement day.  4/28/17 is the start of AMERICAN DOWNFALL, imho.

 

stubb's picture

To what extent are we obligated to heed the opinions of a man who not only thinks "wary" is a verb and is unable to use simple punctuation, but proudly flaunts his atrocious taste in music? 

MagicalUnicornFarts's picture

Amazing how some fucktard always has to hate on the Hebrews in every article on ZH. G*d Damn Antisemetic Nazi shithead

TheLastTrump's picture

ah, your raison de etre

 

Fuck the Nazi Jew bashers. You stupid fucks already tried that once, remember?

 

So, what Nazi character do you dress up as when you jerk it? Mengele? Hoping for a little canine Jewess breeding experimentation are you?

TheLastTrump's picture

Oh, this is where all the leftist shills, sock puppet masturbators & morally confused Ron PaulBotz racists are. I missed y'all on the other threads.

 

Go fuck yourselves.

 

One simple answer to all the anti Trump FUCKS whining & crying about TRUMP:

 

The fact that illegal immigration is down almost 70 fucking percent year over year is a fucking MIRACLE. And it's JUST GETTING STARTED.

 

GOD Bless America and fuck you if you don't agree.

Ruteger's picture

There will be NO government shutdown as it is too close to mid-term elections. More kabuki theater for the masses.

LOL123's picture

Lol and that would be prescisly why they WOULD shut down.. Negative Republican climate.

debtor of last resort's picture

Shutdown porn. It already shut down goddamn 46 years ago you stupid fucks.

stubb's picture

Trump still has a voter base? 

TheLastTrump's picture

There's some misinformation about the % of Americans who work for govt. It's less then 16%. Twice as high as it should be, but not even close to 50%.

 

2010 - "Census data released last week indicates public employees account for 27 percent of the state’s (AK) total workforce – the highest rate in the country behind the District of Columbia.

 

 

 

Results for the 2010 American Community Survey show wide variations in public employees among states. Nationwide, those employed at all levels government combined to account for 15.3 percent of the total workforce." (city/county/state/Federal)

 

http://www.governing.com/news/state/2010-census-public-employees-workfor...

moorewasthebestbond's picture

Expect a flip-flop.

 

This is Trump we are talking about.

blindman's picture

Eric Clapton, Steve Winwood - Presence of the Lord
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98XqT4kBWT4
.
what is sovereignty?

SnottyBubbles's picture

Okay ... shut it down but this time don't pay $B's to folks like its spring break vacation.

 

 

YourAverageJoe's picture

All the government slugs are gonna get to go fishing, and when they get the word the govt reopen, they'll get back pay for the missed work.

 

Fuckers.

aloha_snakbar's picture

If it does actually shut down... how will we know? Will things run better?

nostromo17's picture

closing Vaterland Security if it stays permanently closed is excellent

MagicalUnicornFarts's picture

I contend America would be far better off if a giant sinkhole opened under DC and swallowed the whole lot of those fucktards in DC - straight to the depths of hell. 

 

#FUCKUGOP 

#FUCKUMARXISTDNC