Trump Administration Begins Quiet Preparations For Government Shutdown

Tyler Durden's picture

Even as Donald Trump is desperate to show to the US population, and especially his voter base, some actual achievement before his first 100 days run out next weekend, prompting him to tell AP that he will unveil a "tremendous" tax ut plan next week (recall he did the same in February), the Trump administration is quietly preparing for the possibility of a government shutdown, even though the president and his staff believe one is unlikely to occur. 

With the Senate reconvening on Monday and the House of Representatives on Tuesday after a two-week recess, lawmakers will have only four days to pass a spending package to keep the government open beyond April 28, when funding expires for numerous federal programs. "I think we want to keep the government open," Trump said on Thursday, adding he thinks Congress can pass the funding legislation and perhaps also a revamped healthcare bill.

Trump's wish may be problematic: as a reminder, the government will shut down midnight on April 28 if Congress cannot agree on a spending bill. As reported over the past week, the measure hit various snags over Trump's demands to include funding for Trump’s border wall and a debate over money for an ObamaCare insurer subsidy program, both programs which virtually assure the spending bill will not pass.

As a result, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has begun to coordinate with government agencies to plan for a possible shutdown. “While we do not expect a lapse, prudence and common sense require routine assessments will be made,” OMB Director Mick Mulvaney said in a statement.

The office set up a phone call to go over the agencies’ shutdown plans, which could include steps such as furloughs for federal workers.  The OMB said the plans were reviewed ahead of a possible shutdown last December and are unlikely to be revised.

As Compass Point analyst Isaac Boltansky, notes, "wall funding is just one of many policy potholes that could disrupt negotiations, including ACA cost-sharing subsidies, coal miner benefits, sanctuary cities."

To be sure, Congress can avoid a full-blown shutdown if it passes a short-term spending measure to keep the government open while negotiations over a broader funding deal continue, but even that process has been put into question.

"I think we're in good shape," President Trump said when asked about the possibility of a shutdown. “We remain confident we’re not going to have a shutdown,” White House press secretary Sean Spicer told reporters at a separate off-camera briefing, calling the preparation “required steps” for the federal agencies and departments.

Some analysts disagree with the optimistic assessment.

According to Cowen's Chris Kruger "shutdown theatrics reach fever pitch next week, with one-week punt most likely outcome" however he focuses on the "White House’s misconception they have any leverage with Democrats when it’s the opposite, as Congressional Democrats have less than zero incentive to compromise with Trump and Trump needs them to keep govt from shutting down."

As such unless Trump concedes to all demands, not only is a full spending bill out of the question, but even a short-term agreement appears precarious.

More ominously, Kruger adds that "until this week, shutdown threat seemed very low as Congressional GOP leadership, appropriators hammered out spending agreements, were on same page as Democrats; that went sideways when White House pushed more confrontational approach on ObamaCare, immigration."

Meanwhile, Height Securities' Peter Cohn has noted the House Democrats taking a hard line against even one-week stopgap continuing resolution (CR) "due to unresolved White House demands on funding wall construction, withholding funds from sanctuary cities."

He sees 25% odds for temporary partial shutdown, with path to deal including boost for border "security" funds (not wall), added military funding. Others, such as Goldman see shutdown odds at one in three (and rising).

As Reuters adds, leading House Democrats were voicing skepticism a deal could be reached by the deadline. In a telephone call for House Democrats, Representative Nita Lowey, the senior Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, said: "I don't see how we can meet that deadline" and avoid having to pass a short-term extension, according to an aide on the call. The second-ranking House Democrat, Representative Steny Hoyer, told his fellow Democrats that they should only support such a short-term measure if a deal on long-term bill is reached and only finishing touches remained, the aide said.

Republican leaders face a familiar balancing act: satisfying the party's most conservative members while not alienating its moderates.

Rules in the 100-seat Senate mean Trump's party also would need the support of at least eight Democrats even if the Republicans remain unified, giving the opposition party leverage. House Republican leaders would need some Democratic votes if the most conservative lawmakers object to the bill, as they did to the healthcare plan championed by Speaker Paul Ryan. With congressional elections looming next year, Republicans acknowledge the stakes are high.

"Even our most recalcitrant members understand that if you shut down the government while you're running it and you control the House and the Senate, you can't blame anybody but yourself," said Representative Tom Cole, a senior House Appropriations Committee Republican.

White House budget director Mick Mulvaney said the Trump administration was willing to talk to Democrats about funding for Obamacare subsidies in exchange for their agreement to include some Trump priorities such as the wall, the defense hike and more money for immigration enforcement. "It is ripe for some type of negotiated agreement that gives the president some of his priorities and Democrats some of their priorities. So we think we've opened the door for that," Mulvaney said.

Democrats reacted negatively. "Everything had been moving smoothly until the administration moved in with a heavy hand. Not only are Democrats opposed to the wall, there is significant Republican opposition as well,” said Matt House, a spokesman for Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer.

* * *

Should the Trump and the GOP be unable to concede on some of the controversial demands floated in recent days, we expect the shut down odds to rise substantially, and instead of a "massive" tax cut, the most likely outcome may in fact be a closed government starting next weekend, and lasting for the foreseeable future.

The government was last forced to close in October 2013, when Republican Senator Ted Cruz and some of the most conservative House Republicans engineered a 17-day shutdown in an unsuccessful quest to kill Democratic former President Barack Obama's healthcare law. Meanwhile, the current Congress has passed no major legislation since Trump took office in January. Among his ambitions are hopes for major tax-cut legislation, infrastructure spending and other bills.

A federal closure would shutter National Park Service destinations like the Statue of Liberty, Yellowstone and the Grand Canyon. Government medical research would be suspended. Thousands of federal workers would be furloughed with thousands more working without pay until the shutdown ends, including homeland security personnel. Some veterans benefits could be suspended.

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Silver Savior's picture

Just as long as the poor are not impacted by this it will be no big deal. But something tells me with Trump in the driver's seat this could turn ugly fast because he hates the poor.

headless blogger's picture

If you pay $5000 and the plane wrecks, you'll be just as dead as the guy that pays $800.

EconoIdiot's picture

It really has no structure at all, we just need more free money.

Free money!!! $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Trillions please!  Out of thin air!!!  More and More!!!  Feels so good don't stop!

And you are concerned because you should be.

 

 

Silver Savior's picture

I want free money. We were not supposed to work for currency to begin with. 

Fake Trump's picture

Shut down Wall Street before 25th.

Victory_Garden's picture

It would seem that at this point, any reason to head in to the underground bases will do. Cause some chaos to keep the masses of people occupied, like starving them, or eliminating them via nuklear woar, or what ever, then duck. Any excuse will provide for a reason to go to the places they have been digging and stocking for the last decades. If you step outside of the distraction box, your priorities will be rearranged. As above, so it is below. Kinda hard to swim with a pocket full of gold and after the passage is done, where would you spend it anyways? Live well and in the best quality of goodness that you can. All things are karmic in nature.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDdEbW02TDE

 

Got yer ticket to the underground cities?

 

 

EasternPoV's picture

You need George Carlin back to solve the problem, this is kabuki theatre.

Stinkytofu's picture

shut down da gub'mint?

oh, puhleeeees, brer trump,

puhleeese don't trow me in dat briah patch!

RibbitFreedom's picture

Shut it down and close it permanently

perkunas's picture

"Government Shutdown"
Yep, shut it down, keep it closed, and don't come back.

Manipuflation's picture

I wonder how long it will take the .gov to figure out that we don't care anymore? 

I love Jewfeld(Seinfeld).  The re-run the other night had Kramer telling the US Postal Service that he doesn't want any more mail.  Ever.  If you think about it, it actually makes sense.  "But you have to have an address."  Says who?        

are we there yet's picture

The last gov shutdown was invisible to me. If the gov shuts down too long and nothing bad happens, congress looks useless. So no shutdown will go on too long, but I suspect that nothing in my life will change.

Manipuflation's picture

But you have to have a phone number and an address to do about anything.  For somewhere around five years in my earlier day I didn't have a phone number because I didn't need one.  I did have an address though.  Even back in the late 90's/early 2000's people would ask me, "What do you mean you don't have a phone?".  I didn't for a lot of years.  

I remember some young gal telling that it was impossible that I didn't have a phone number regarding some basic retail transaction.  "How can you not have a phone number?" she asked.  I had an air matress that leaks, my dresser was a cardboard box, I had two lawn chairs for furniture and the TV is something left over from college.  I wasn't going to pay for cable.  I did have a subscription to the Shotgun News.

Didn't date many women after right university and I drove a cream colored 1977 Olds Delta 88 with a cracked windshield and a leaking gas tank for a quite a while.  I bought one truck new all of those years ago.  Guess what I am still driving and that 02 Chev ZR2 is still in good shape and well taken care of.  That's just me though.

 

Now in Minnesota this is being debated.  This is just plain fooolish.  

http://www.startribune.com/drivers-get-repair-vouchers-instead-of-tickets-for-broken-car-lights/419693953/

 

The .gov can fuck off.     

pc_babe's picture

Saturday morning, we are still here ... we survived Friday COB.

Can we make the weekend without 'em? Me so scared!

Megaton Jim's picture

Once again proving how totally useless most Fed employees are, especially the Affirmative Action types!

ronaldwilsonreagan's picture

Not to worry my beloved Trumptarded Morons, there will always be a budget for war and keeping tabs on our every move. It will only be the part of the government that provides actual service to actual taxpayers that shuts down. Donald Fuck Face Trump and his billionaire minions were going to shut all that down with or without a budget anyways. Socialism for billionaires and rugged individualism for us:)

Carpe Tutti Bastardi's picture

Lo and behold you are the exact specie that I was referring to when I wrote the following in another article:

To Wit:

ZeroHedge had succeeded a while ago in seemingly attaining that dreaded

derogatorial  simile "jumping the Shark" now attracting multitudes of paid (less stupid)

and unpaid (more stupid) Soros' Leftist trolls. So much so that I'm sorry to say that I find

it becoming a huge waste of my time to even bother to read the many dumb, inane and

outlandishly low class responses and comments.

You fit it to a TEE!

Last of the Middle Class's picture

Government shutdown has come to mean a closing off of the spigot to big business associated much too close to government. The story is how they in turn will whip it up and make it hell on Americans in order to get the spigot flowing again. Total corruption.

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

that will be cool.. as Paul Ryan speaks they shut the lights off!!!

 

ThanksIwillHaveAnother's picture

Last shutdown in Summer the Washington Monument closed.   That was done by the Dems departmental cronies.   The eye poking will start again.   These psychopaths will punch the red button.  Trump may preempt with NK attack.

GotAFriendInBen's picture

Moretax breaks, less regulation please

 

 

 

 

Opinion: A rich Gary Cohn got even richer by working for Donald Trump

Published: Apr 22, 2017 1:00 a.m. ET

The chief economic adviser was required to sell his Goldman Sachs shares — and he did so tax-free and with perfect timing

Getty Images

Gary Cohn, Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser

By


Columnist

Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, pocketed somewhere between $47 million and $235 million by selling his Goldman Sachs stock earlier this year.

The sum was massively fattened as a result of the Goldman Sachs GS, -0.55%  stock boom that has followed Trump’s election victory.

And it also included somewhere between $4.5 million and $22.5 million that Cohn, the investment bank’s former president, saved by cashing out just before Goldman’s recent stumble.

You can file this under “Swamp, Draining of.”

Oh, yeah, and Cohn also saved millions more, thanks to a massive tax break, courtesy of his new job at the Trump administration.

That’s Donald Trump for you. Making America Great Again, one Wall Street millionaire at a time.

Government documents

Documents provided to MarketWatch by the federal government’s Office of Government Ethics show that Cohn sold his stock between January and March of this year, in a series of transactions, at an estimated average price of $240.

That represented a huge gain in the stock price since Trump’s election victory. Early last November, when the stock market expected Hillary Clinton to win, Goldman traded for just $180.

Read: Should Wall Street fear a government shutdown? Here’s how stocks fared during past closures

By amazing good fortune, Cohn also managed to cash out just before Goldman’s recent stumble, which has taken the shares down to $218.

Nice work.

We don’t know the exact figures, incidentally, because the government documents provide only ranges for the value of each transaction.

Lucky man

Cohn is presumably the beneficiary of good fortune, and not of anything nefarious. He sold because he was required to when he joined the administration. The transactions would presumably have been handled by his brokers.

But, as they like to say, it’s better to be lucky than to be good.

And if you think this is the end to Cohn’s luck, think again.

Joining the Trump administration is turning into some of the smartest financial planning in history.

When Cohn took the job, the Goldman Sachs board gave him a big, fat, sloppy golden goodbye on the way out the door, and accelerated his future stock and option awards.

And when he sold the stock, he got a wonderful, glorious tax break on his capital gains.

An ordinary schmuck cashing out his company stock would have to hand over 20% of the long-term gains, and up to 43.6% on any short-term.

Cohn? Er ... zero percent.

No kidding.

Tax break for the rich

A special break, available to rich people picked to join the government, lets them cash out and defer their capital gains taxes ... well, possibly forever. All they have to do is sell their stock — to avoid conflicts of interest — and then invest the proceeds in diversified funds.

In other words, it lets them convert a risky, concentrated portfolio into a more stable, diversified one without having to pay any of those icky taxes first.

Those, as we all know, are for the little people.

Yes, Cohn has to pay income taxes on those parts of his rewards deemed income. And he, or his heirs, will eventually have to pay taxes on capital gains when, or if, these diversified funds are sold.

Taxes will also be owed when their kids and grandkids inherit the fortune — unless the Republican Party succeeds in abolishing inheritance tax, as it says it wants to.

Deja vu

Wall Street tycoons, incidentally, have begun a sly misinformation campaign to persuade you that this tax deferral is really no break at all, because taxes have to be paid eventually. Sure. Try telling the IRS you don’t want to pay your taxes until some distant day in the future, possibly after you’re dead, and see what they say.

Gary Cohn’s windfall recalls a previous Goldman honcho. Hank Paulson was able to cash out his entire stake in the bank just before the financial crisis when he joined the Bush administration as Treasury secretary. Once in office, by an amazing coincidence, his actions just happened to help the bank.

Some people say history doesn’t repeat itself, “it rhymes.” Phooey. When it comes to money and politics, I say it repeats itself. Tell me I’m wrong.

naro's picture

Our armed forces are getting seiously degraded by the continuing resolution.  Trump must cut entitlement and increase defense spending.  The Democrats cannot stop them if Trump will present a good budget.

bluez's picture

Over 50% of the budget goes for "defense". Like that great "defense" system that shot down all those planes that were about to hit the WTC and the Pentagon. Great investment! Great!

bluez's picture

A "government shutdown" always turns into a national parks shutdown.

1) National parks are one of the very few services that people really enjoy.

2) National parks are one of the very few services that earn the government actual money for real service rendered.

So this all makes perfect sense.

(I don't actually go to national parks. Because Bigfoot. But that's just me.)

d edwards's picture

Yeah, it's total bullshit. 

Jethro's picture

National Parks? I enjoy them too! However, I'd fire the NP personnel that set up the alt-park bullshit.

Tell me that probably 80% (or more) of the IRS couldn't be replaced with computers.

ATF? pink slips for the entire agency
TSA? pink slips. Just don't allow muslims on planes...problem solved.
Border Patrol? Upgrade their equipment, and let them hire some more agents.

Start making cuts to all the other agencies by shitcanning all hires under Obama first, then throw out the remaining non-performers.

Cut foreign aid completely off, pull troops home.
Cut UN funding completely off
Cut student loans, and make existing loans subject to bankruptcy law.
Cut federal backstop of all business, all farm subsidies, all welfare (corporate and individual).
Jail Insurance/Pharma/Medical assholes perpetrating monopolistic business practices.
Lets see how that shakes out, then devise a better plan going forward.

directaction's picture

Here's what will happen:
Much more spending,
Lots and lots more borrowing,
Less taxes. 
More gas on the fire.  

I need Another Beer's picture

The government was last forced to close in October 2013, when Republican Senator Ted Cruz and some of the most conservative House Republicans engineered a 17-day shutdown in an unsuccessful quest to kill Democratic former President Barack Obama's healthcare law.

Phillyguy's picture

Trump budget plans- take away as much money as possible from healthcare, education, environment and other social programs and increase spending for war and give tax cuts to his wealthy supporters. This will certainly make America “great” again and the average American poorer. The American public deserves who they vote for.

stljoe's picture

Well the quality of education has not improved since we founded the ED. Forgive me for not wailing and ripping my garments at the prospect that they might not get a 10% increase to their budget. And with less EPA funding where will we be? We will have fewer jack booted thugs punishing people for filling up a stagnant drain ditch on their own property. It's all so tragic.

OliverAnd's picture

Will Trump and his family be able to fly to Florida in a government plane on the weekends to golf?  

hotrod's picture

Yes that gets pretty expensive per round trip.  I realize he does not take a salary but I think a round trip is 2 million.  Approimately 200, 50,000 a year income federal tax payers per trip.  Or 800 tax payers a month.

TheLastTrump's picture

Lying bloodstained leftist media MEME NARRATIVE. You're highly likely to be a paid Brockian shill.

 

 

OliverAnd's picture

Its a legitimate question.  The last thing I want is an over stressed President.  Look at all the wonderful wars he is getting us into with North Korea, Syria while also extending involvement in Iraq.  Imagine under stress what he may do...  attack Russia, China?  Its important for some R&R every weekend for a wrestling and network show star.  His brain needs to cool down.

Fourth Horseman's picture

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rz the 1st's picture

COG (continuation of .gov) is a big deal.
They have plans upon plans about how to keep their hold on the tax base even in the event of nuke-time.
As far as I know, about 20% of fed workers are considered "essential" and would be required to keep the COG project going.
In a shutdown,(not like the one the Kenyan Muppet did), would not touch stuff like the post office, social security, etc. simply because the FSA would get too uppity and they can't deal with that just yet.
Consider this though:
If the fed shuts down, what would stop the states from keeping alla the dough they send to DC for themselves to smooth out whatever waves the "shutdown" creates?
Aside of the fact that all the mafia works together to keep the family intact, that is.
Seeing how I didn't vote for DJT, and don't give a fuck about the .gov at all, I'd say shitcan the lot of the fed workers, save the 20% and let's see how far they get.
My thinking would be at that point, the odds would be about even for those funding the FSA (us) to take the sorry-ass remainder of the .gov back and get to setting things right.

A dream can't come true, if you don't have a dream.

Keep reloading.......

stljoe's picture

Did anyone notice any difference at all in their life the last time the government shut down? No? Great! Let them shut it down.

Jethro's picture

When about half of the government employees are non-essential, that metric alone seems to be a good starting point for making cuts in personnel.

hvl626's picture

How about bringing ALL of the US military personnel back to the US and close down the bases? 

 

We save a LOT of money, have people to patrol the borders, stop people from hating the US and becoming terrorists, and stop exposing our military to gunfire.

LKG's picture

Shut it down so all of the Trump voters who work for the government can get to really appreciate the fullness of his MAGA.

Then once it's shutdown, he should fly to FLA on our dime, play some golf, eat some dead roptten meat STEAK, and come back on Monday feelng refreshed. 

Once in FLA, he shoudl ask Congress to enact all of his cuts, cut EPA, gut State department, abolish IRS, and gut the rest of government by 2/3. Maybe he can moonlight as the ticket clerk in some agency.

You know, the typical Donald Trump. 

Yep, shut it down, shut it down, SHUT IT DOWN

TheLastTrump's picture

Oh, this is where all the leftist shills, sock puppet masturbators & morally confused Ron PaulBotz racists are. I missed y'all on the other threads.

 

Go fuck yourselves.

 

One simple answer to all the anti Trump FUCKS whining & crying about TRUMP:

 

The fact that illegal immigration is down almost 70 fucking percent year over year is a fucking MIRACLE. And it's JUST GETTING STARTED.

 

GOD Bless America and fuck you if you don't agree.

LKG's picture

The thread is about Government shutdown. Take your racist immigation frustated self somewhere else.

TheLastTrump's picture

No you fucking anti Trump shill turd, this thread is about leftist shills like yourself dumping on Trump without evidence.

 

 

"Shut it down so all of the Trump voters who work for the government can get to really appreciate the fullness of his MAGA."

 

 

My son is brown you fucking cocksucker, and I'm part Indian. Your racist ad hominem attack is a LIE. No surprise.

 

MAGA fucker.

LKG's picture

Get a life. Anyone Anti Trump is not Anti America.

It's traitors like u that sell out this country for the sake of following any buffoon that comes along with a punch line.

You sound like a looser who needs to hit the gym and let that anger out. Either way, you're a sad case of steroids gone wrong.

Silver Savior's picture

No border patrol? I wish because we are a nation of immigrants!

Jethro's picture

Tired old leftist mantra....

This corpse (the US) can't afford any additional parasites.

alfredhorg's picture

If the government shuts down, go long janitorial services:

https://howibeatgold.wordpress.com/2017/03/27/janitor-amassed-an-8m-fort...

You'll score big if SHTF.