Le Pen, Macron Progress To Second Round As Establishment Parties Crash

Tyler Durden's picture

With more numbers coming from the French Interior Ministry, as of 11:31 p.m. local time Macron's lead is growing to 23.61% as more city votes are counted, vs Le Pen 22.20%, with 41 Million votes counted, or 85.4% of the total. The gap is likely to expand as the final votes are tallied.

Earlier, in a race that was too close to call up to the last minute, Macron, a pro-EU ex-banker and former economy minister who founded his own party only a year ago, was projected to get 23.7 percent of the first-round vote by the pollster Ifop-Fiducial and 24 percent by Harris. Le Pen, leader of the National Front, was given 21.7 percent by Ifop and 22 percent by Harris. Other pollsters projected broadly similar results.

Defeated Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon, Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve and defeated right-wing candidate Francois Fillon all urged voters to rally behind Macron in the second round. A new Harris survey saw Macron winning the runoff by 64 percent to 36, and an Ipsos/Sopra Steria poll gave a similar result.

According to Bloomberg, the key takeaways are as follows:

  • Winners: Independent centrist Emmanuel Macron, in his first run for office, and the National Front's Marine Le Pen, who succeeded in detoxifying her anti-immigrant party enough to make the second round (as her father did in 2002). The runoff campaign over the next two weeks will feature a stark contrast between Macron's pro-EU, pro-globalization world view, and Le Pen's call to close borders and quit the euro currency. Polls show Macron winning handily.
  • Losers: Francois Fillon and Benoit Hamon of the Republicans and the Socialists, respectively, the parties that have dominated French politics for decades. Fillon, the man to beat as recently as January, was undone by a scandal involving an alleged no-show government job for his wife. Hamon was a surprise winner of the Socialist primary after President Francois Hollande decided not to run again, but he never gained traction. At last count he was a distant fifth. Leftist firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon also lost momentum in the campaign's closing days.
  • Euro soared against both the dollar - rising to the euro's highest level since Nov. 10, the day after the results of the U.S. presidential election. - and especially the yen, as investors priced in a win for Macron and the receding threat of a far-left or far-right candidate winning the presidency.

But perhaps the most notable outcome, as Reuters adds, is today's huge defeat for the French establishment - the two center-right and center-left groupings that have dominated French politics for 60 years, even as it reduces the prospect of an anti-establishment shock on the scale of Britain's vote last June to quit the European Union and the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president.

SocGen's Kit Juckes reiterates the most notable takeaways from the result:

There is a huge amount to be said in the weeks and months to come about the historic failure of the two establishment parties in France to make it through to the second round of the Presidential election, and indeed about what that means for upcoming Parliamentary elections too, but for now, the biggest takeaway from the first round result (and while the final count isn't know yet, it results in a vote-off between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen) is that pollsters did a far better job of predicting the outcome in France than they did for the EU referendum in the UK or the US Presidential election. And it' s worth noting that the first poll released after the first round vote ended, from iPsos, sees a 62-38 outcome in favour of M Macron in the second round. That's what the FX market is going to trade off in the days ahead and indeed is already doing. The Euro is on its way (up) and risk assets and currencies are heaving a sigh of relief

* * *

In his victory speech, Macron told supporters of his fledgling En Marche! (Onwards!) movement: "In one year, we have changed the face of French politics." Conceding defeat even before figures from the count came in, rival conservative and Socialist candidates urged their supporters now to put their energies into backing Macron and stopping any chance of a second-round victory by Le Pen, whose anti-immigration and anti-Europe policies they said spelled disaster for France.

Seconds after the first projections came through, Macron supporters gathered at a Paris conference center burst into the national anthem, the Marseillaise. Many were under 25, reflecting some of the appeal of a man aiming to become France's youngest head of state since Napoleon. With an eye to Le Pen's avowedly France-first policies, Macron told the crowd: "I want to be the president of patriots in the face of a threat from nationalists."

Meanwhile, Le Pen, who is bidding to make history as France's first female president, follows in the footsteps of her father, who founded the National Front and reached the second round of the presidential election in 2002. Jean-Marie Le Pen was ultimately crushed when voters from right and left rallied around the conservative Jacques Chirac in order to keep out a party whose far-right, anti-immigrant views they considered unpalatably xenophobic.

His daughter has done much to soften her party's image, and found widespread support among young voters by pitching herself as an anti-establishment defender of French workers and French interests against global corporations and an economically constricting EU. "The great issue in this election is the rampant globalization that is putting our civilization at risk," she declared in her first word after results came through.

She went on to launch an attack on the policies of Macron, whom she again described as "the money king" in a disparaging swipe at his investment banker background.

As Reuters adds, today's result will mean a face-off between politicians with radically contrasting economic visions for a country whose economy lags that of its neighbors and where a quarter of young people are unemployed.

Macron's gradual deregulation measures are likely to be welcomed by global financial markets, as are cuts in state expenditure and the civil service. Le Pen wants to print money to finance expanded welfare payments and tax cuts, ditch the euro currency and possibly pull out of the EU. If he wins, Macron's biggest challenges will lie ahead, as he first tries to secure a working parliamentary majority for his young party in June, and then seeks broad popular support for labor reforms that are sure to meet resistance.


"Markets will be reassured that the dreaded Le Pen versus Mélenchon run-off has been avoided," said Diego Iscaro, an economist from IHS Markit.


"As a result, we expect some recovery in French bond prices, while the euro is also likely to benefit," he said. "However, a lot can happen in two weeks and French assets are likely under some pressure until the second round is out of the way."

But the biggest, still unanswered question that remains after today, is whether the anti-establishment wave that started with Brexit and Trump, was effectively put to rest with today's result.

Timothy Ash, an economist at Bluebay asset management, said Trump's victory last November marked a turning point for electorates playing the protest card.

"Despite all the hype about the rise of populism, 60 percent of voters went for mainstream candidates ... In an uncertain world, they rather go for what they know best and want to take fewer risks," he said.

It remains to be seen if other European countries agree with this assessment.

* * *

Update 4:42pm: As expected, with the city vote starting to come in, Macron has just taken the lead according to Interior Ministry data:


Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel is delighted, saying that it is "good that Macron was successful."

* * *

Update 4:10pm: Le Pen's lead in the official votes is slipping, and according to Interior Ministry data, now been updated with 50.02% of the total eligible voters, Le Pen’s lead continues to narrow now at 1.71% points from 2.19% in the last update. This is expected given that urban areas are the last to report results, and are less likely to vote for the far-right candidate.

* * *

Update: 3:49pm ET: With 50% of Votes Counted, France's Interior Ministry reports LE PEN AT 24.13%, MACRON AT 22.42%

The latest Interior Ministry preliminary estimates put Marine Le Pen at 24.3%, or roughly 7.5 percentage points better than the 2002 performance that got her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, into that year's presidential run-off. This would also be the National Front's best first-round showing to date.


Additionally, France's largest union, The CFDT, has called up in ts members to vote for Macron in the second round "to beat the National Front."

* * *

Update 3:26 pm ET: Here is where the latest results stand 90 minutes after the results were initially released: the latest figures from Kantar figures expected Macron to win first round with 23%, Le Pen coming second at 22%. while the latest numbers from the Interior Ministry show Le Pen at 25.1%, Macron at 21.3% however the results from the big cities are expected to come in later and boost Macron. Le Pen has called the result `historic', and has predicted she will be in the run-off. The euro has rallied following the early results, gaining as much as 1.9%, the highest since November, although 1.09 is proving to be a modest resistance level for now.

* * *

Update 3:22 pm ET:  In a statement released on Facebook, Jean-Luc Melenchon has reefuseds to concede defeat and asks for his supporters and the press to ‘show restraint’ and wait for more votes to be counted. He is currently a close fourth in all polls. Fillon, as reported earlier, wasted no time in conceding. It remains to be seen whether or not the order will change, but the polls have fluctuated in the past. He says he will speak to his supporters at 21:00 BST (his supporters reportedly ‘still believe’ according to French tv station BFM TV).

Headlines via Bloomberg:


* * *

Update 3:10pm ET: Marine Le Pen is speaking, and acknowledges she will be in the second round of the election, and that she is honored her voters have sent her into the second round.

She says he result in the first round is "historic" and that her "result is an act of French pride." She also adds that "she's ready to take on the defense of the French republic" and that the French need to seize this historic opportunity to fight "savage globalization."

* * *

Update: 2:58pm ET:  Another polling agency has released projections putting Macron in the lead (barely):


* * *

Update 2:43pm ET: Francois Fillon concedes, saying "this defeat is mine, and mine alone", although as Bloomberg notes, "Fillon is still bitter, though, about the investigative journalism and resulting criminal investigation, that torpedoed his campaign." Oh, and like all of the French political establishment, he endorses Emmanuel Macron.

* * *

Update: 2:34pm ET: Interior ministry data shows Le Pen pulling away for the time being and now has over 25% of the early vote, based on 7.8 million votes.


A note from Bloomberg in its live elections blog on the discrepancy:

"An important note that 7.8 million votes have been counted as of 8:21 p.m. Paris time. The total size of the French electorate is about 47 million (the abstention rate is about 20%). The Interior Ministry numbers are based on the actual count, while the numbers from pollsters are based on samples of counts from polling stations across the country -- the pollster numbers may be more accurate. While both the Interior Ministry numbers and the pollsters' figures show Macron and Le Pen making it to the second round, pollsters show Macron ahead of Le Pen."

* * *

The first results are in and according to IPSOS exit polls, Macron leads with 23.7% of the vote, Le Pen is second with 21.7%, with Fillon and Mellenchon tied for third at 19.5%. However, according to official results, from the French interior ministry, Le Pen is leading with 24.3% of the vote, Macron is at 21.4%, while Fillon has 20.3%.

Meanwhile, according to French official data:


And an update:


Elsewhere, Benoit Hamon, the candidate for the incumbent Parti Socialiste of Francois Hollande, has just conceded defeat after a dismal showing of around 6%. He spoke to supporters and the press in a packed out hall and made an instantaneous endorsement for Emmanuel Macron.


* * *


While we urge taking early polls with a big grain of salt, according to a Harris poll, Macron is in the lead with 24.5% of the vote, follow by Melenchon and Le Pen in second place with 20% of the vote.

  •     Macron (EM-*): 24.5%
  •     Melenchon (FI-LEFT): 20%
  •     Le Pen (FN-ENF): 20%
  •     Fillon (LR-EPP): 18%

A separate poll from La Unne shows Macron leading with 26% with Le Pen in second at 23%.

Additionally, Harris estimates that the turnout in the election will be roughly 80%, while Ifop predicts a 77% turnout.

That said, as Reuters cautions, in 2012, some media outlets leaked estimations before the 8 p.m. embargo time. This time, analysts warn any figures on social media before 8 p.m. should be treated with extreme caution as likely based on incomplete surveys that don’t meet the gold standard.

Some have warned that if the race is extremely close, the polling companies won’t be able to call it and we’ll have to wait until the complete count of votes by the Interior Ministry expected Monday morning.

Reuters also adds that a downbeat tone is emerging from Socialist Benoit Hamoin's election-night base, "where the main concern appears to be whether alternative left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon will go through." "We hope the score will be worthy of this very fine campaign. We would hope to qualify but it doesn't seem to be the case," adviser Julia Cage tells Reuters correspondent Dominique Vidalon.

Meanwhile, Reuters' journalists say "Marine Le Pen supporters are in confident mood in the National Front's northern stronghold of Henin-Beaumont, where hundreds of supporters and journalists are trying to enter a sports hall chosen for tonight's rally. Civil servant Delphine, 49, dismisses recent polls showing a tight race. "I totally reject the polls, I am confident for this evening and I can't wait to see the difference between the (results and the) figures which have been hammering us for weeks. For us it's clear - Marine is in the second round."

* * *

Readers can following the latest news on the ground courtesy of France 24:

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Deathrips's picture

Who with (((they))) pick. Fuck the fed and central bankers!!

Fuck the moneychangers. Fuck the EU!


Cheka_Mate's picture

Democracy is a total scam.

You can't vote (((Bankers))) out of office 

Deathrips's picture

Choices will be made for those that are not as equal as chosen ones....unless a stand is made. The controlled opposition choices for the people equal more government in all cases.

"Give me control of a nation's money
and I care not who makes the laws."


2_legs_bahhhhhd's picture

bankers, because there are some things even a lawyer won't do.

0valueleft's picture

I cant tell the pigs from the humans or the humans from the pigs.

East Indian's picture

Pigs have long ears and better ethics.

johngaltfla's picture

Macron is just another Merkel poodle. Enjoy your muslim terrorists and irrelevancy France!

evoila's picture

Macron is going to win. Chalk another one up for the Rothschild's (where macron used to work).


Great going idiots of France. But we all knew they like to surrender.

yogibear's picture

A declining society as they adopt middle eastern law.

ACP's picture

If you remove the extra 500,000 ballots that George Soros arranged for overseas voters, her lead would be bigger.

Kotzbomber747's picture

Big deal guys.

The losers will call upon their supporter base to vote for Macron during the next round and that's it; no FREXIT, no end of the Euro, no doom and gloom, and (and this is probably more important to all ZH doom-sayers) no sky rocketing gold prices.

Sorry guys, better luck next time, but not to worry, there will be a German election in September... (*)

(*) barring any serious terrorist attack, that German election will also be a total dud, as the German Lügenpresse/MSM is working 24/7 to destroy the Alternative für Deutschland and to promote Martin Schultz (from the socialist SPD) as the next chancellor, who will probably form a coalition with the Green Khmer tree-huggers of B90-Die Grünen.

But on a positive note: the ponzi schemes, the fiat currency, the EUSSR, the rapefugee crisis will go on for a few more years. What could possibly go wrong? /sacr

Whoa Dammit's picture

Macron sez "I want to be the president of patriots in the face of a threat from nationalists." WTF. Where does the world find such morons who believe they can be leaders? I would like to ask the idiot to explain how one can be a patriot without being a nationalist.

Donald Trump's picture
Donald Trump (not verified) Whoa Dammit Apr 23, 2017 7:09 PM

The "crushed" establishment parties will rally their voters to all vote for their establishment guy left in the race. Even the "conservative" Fillon urged his voters to NOT vote Le Pen on second round. 

Gladio guys need to pull more rabbits out of the hat until the next round. To switch more voters to the good side. By hook or by crook, doesn't matter, there is too much at stake.

Irony or False Flag? Police Officer Killed in ISIS Paris Attack Was Gay Rights Activist, Aided Refugees



Manthong's picture

A Le Pen win might make Paris a nice place to travel to again.

Or, the French can just learn to live with Islamic squalor and Macaroon “business as usual” terrorist attacks.

man of Wool's picture

Its a very nice place to travel to. What are you on about? 

Scared of "terrorim" ??

Man America is much more dangerous than Europe. In America you even get shot by the cops!!

Ajax-1's picture

Q: Why wasn't Jesus born in France?

A: Because God couldn't find three wise men and a virgin.

jeff montanye's picture

i don't see how europeans keep ignoring the connection between mossad/likud zionism and the increasing pressure on their borders, certainly some by people who will be part of the problem not part of the solution.

europe, israel and the u.s. will have a darker future if israel continues to avoid the one state solution.


wildbad's picture

now the focus will be tighter.

LePen will win.

Macaroon will be in a bright light. He will be uncloaked in the town square.

His dearth of ideas and obvious invention by the oligarcs to cover their previous faux pas will be his undoing.

i trust the french

vealparm's picture

Hopefully you are correct. He is a puppet of the globalists just as Obama was. I hope the French understand this.

jeff montanye's picture

indeed.  reduced the field and clarified the issues.  lepen has history and the future, imo, on her side.

try to keep selling to europe the u.s. nato mideast policy as it continues climbing over the fences into europe.  

keep the bastards honest's picture

her day will come.

If the bastards stop her this time, the EU will collapse dreadfully in 2018. every dishonest trick, the EU exposing her to unprotected tolitigation, the  govt not putting up her photograph in the  embassies, the 500,000 votes given to fr expats.

Marine is great and has stature. Look at how weak and dopy the other candidates are. Wish she was in Australia.

keep the bastards  honest or at least try

SoDamnMad's picture

Winter is over and the muzzies are coming out of their lair for some fresh pussy. Time to lock up your daughters after the armored car arrives home from school.  Be very wary of the sound of large truck engines.  Guns don't kill people, big trucks do.

new game's picture

even if she won, not much would change. just like trump.

france has a deep state called  the euro union, vassel of big bro ussa deep state uno..

humans gotta hope, i guess. human nature...

jeff montanye's picture

whether intentional or not, in trump's version of the u.s. war machine he practices the Man-Child theory of foreign relations: belligerent, shallow, easily bored (as jeffrey st. clair notes on counterpunch).

one could make an argument that in order to do better (if not best) trump had to blow some stuff up to slake the blood thirst of the zionists/globalists.

the worse job he makes of it, the fewer people buy it.

were it literature it would be called taking on christian implications.


Manthong's picture


Gee.. fondest hopes might come true.

 I Am Woman       … no not me, but I have great respect for strong ones.

..many strong drugs are being ingested in Brussels now except drunken Juncker (who appears to be on the sauce).… but …

But maybe she, the stately Marine has enough fortitude to NOT (unlike) Trump roll over to the establishment.


French folks.. get it together before it is too late.


Manthong's picture


Hi troll..

When you are constipated on the pot, I am smiling at your sorry butt.  : - )

You do not know me, but I am the demon on your shoulder 24/7/365.


Eventually, you will be totally had, but the funny thing is that will be of your own recourse.


BTW, did you ever graduate high school?

It appears not.

Just keep voting "stuck on stupid".

I will be here long after your innards rot from your foolishness.

I have a whole QWERTY keyboard, computer, monitor, a good Internet connection and plenty of free time.

It might irk you to know that you are likely paying for my jovial creativeness with each paycheck or Medicare deduction.

Eat it, fool.


Have a nice day,

jeff montanye's picture

somehow that seems too self-critical.

keep the bastards honest's picture

fondest hopes,

but  this might be a good one for her to lose, things will go very bad, the EU due to collapse in 2018 and the establishment or  whatever have  shown  their hand. So problems will be none of her making.  Macron is just that, sounds like a spanish word, looks like an ex banker schoolboy. Remember the french will vote in what they deserve.

weburke's picture

just the pathways laid out to get us to global currency in 2018. theater only.

monk27's picture

So, according to the votes actually counted, Le Pen is winning while all the exist polls barely give her the 2nd place. I think I've seen this movie before...

gouyou's picture

The counted vote are where she has high scores (rural area), the vote not counted are from the large cities where she had historically low scores, especially in Paris.

ebworthen's picture

Notre Dame a Mosque within 50 years.

Germany will leave the E.U. before France.

Mr 9x19's picture



i told you, the whole system is auto fuelled by fucked heads.


when sheeple vote, no need to rig the election.


france is done, boom.


5 years later of full economics retard batshit stuff, they will try communism instead.


pyong yong, pls,  push button.


Rubicon727's picture

"Great going idiots of France. But we all knew they like to surrender."

I'm pretty sure the illiterate Americans who voted for Clinton or Trump, far outrank any PERCENTAGE of ignorant French voters by over a few thousand % percent points.  


Ajax-1's picture

Yes, Merican's are stupid. However, I find your assertion dubious at best.

TheObsoleteMan's picture

A quick look back at history shows you what the French are made of: Clay. They haven't been relevant since they lost the Battle of Waterloo. The only reason they managed to do as well as they did in WW1 was because they had ALLOT of help from the UK and her Commonwealth, and of course the Russians were holding up many enemy divisions on the eastern front. They could surprise me, but I'm not counting on it. France has had a love affair with Socialism for decades now, and like heroin, it is not something you just quit one day. 

Snípéir_Ag_Obair's picture

Yep. But at some point you gotta say... if the French as an ethnic nation insist on voting for their own national and democratic suicide by election puppets of the banks and jews...

What can you do but say Europe is in terminal decline - betrayed y their politicians, a Jewish 5th column, large corporations and banks- but most of all accepting the idea that ethnic Europeans dont have any of the rights that 'minorities' do - Jews most of all. France's version of AIPAC, CRIF, promotes the same immivasion and wars our ADL and AIPAC does.

But I blame the idiot Leftists most of all.

I mean, the guy is an absolutely shameless puppet of the Jews.


He's another Sarkozy.... a guy whose calls for 'coercive methods' if the ethnic French don't intermarry would have made headlines if he werent a Jew advancing Jewish plots.


The Kalergi Plan + The Oded Yinon Plan explains Syria and the refugee crisis



General Mattis is starting to annoy me. He is, predictably, turning into quite the shabbos goy. Needs redpilling on (((who))) bombed that Marine barracks, and to be reminded of (((who))) deliberately attacked the USS Liberty.





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Anon2017's picture

Spam. Please remove and ban this account.

New_Meat's picture

Yes, Spam.  The poor bot in MDB's Mom's basement is trapped inside a Pentium of all things running obsolete XP.  it is under constant attack, since it knows it is in a totally obsolete environment and MDB has left it to its initial programming (Bastard!!) to emit the same message. ... the same message ... the same message ... the same message ...

jeff montanye's picture

true enough but how can the zionazis be so sure that it won't eventually backfire and anti-israel governments finally prevail.  i mean it's not as if this puzzle is that hard to figure out.

bust 9-11.

TheObsoleteMan's picture

General Mathis: What do you expect from him? He is a war pig. Painters paint, plumbers fix broken water pipes, and generals take their countries to war {at least the American one's do anyway}. Mad dog is a good name for him. I took my Trump sticker off of my car over the weekend. Now I hear he has said he is willing to work with democrats on preserving most parts of Obamacare if they will work with him on the budget. Fucking sellout trash! Didn't even get through his first 100 days before rolling over.

napper's picture

Macron is a poodle, but not of Angela Merkel - she is a US poodle herself.


shamus001's picture

"I want to be the president of patriots in the face of a threat from nationalists." - Macron said

WTF does that mean again? He wants to be a patriot leader by defeating those who protect their homeland? (nationalist)

Does anyone even digest the crap that comes out of globalist mouths?  Macron is going to have his hands FULL with the blood of Frenchmen in the streets as ISLAM CONQUERES FRANCE. 

----But he's a "Patriot"....allowing his people to die by the hands of radical foreigners.

fockewulf190's picture

SkyNews is going full EU, blasting out the Macron won headlines, fully avoiding the official stats as of yet. To be expected.

fockewulf190's picture

It's 10:05 PM CET and SkyNews is still showing the long expired results from 8PM. Again, no fucking surprise from the europhile mass media.

New_Meat's picture

ya, even Fox went EMCON from like midnight 'till 0300 or so back in November.  It does get noticed, though.