The Streak Is Over: Caterpillar Posts First Positive Retail Sales After 51 Months Of Declines

Tyler Durden's picture

After 51 consecutive months, the dead CAT spell is finally over.

On Monday, traditionally just ahead of earnings, Caterpillar reported that in March its world retail sales rose 1% Y/Y, the first increase since November 2012. The reason: Asia/Pacific, also known as China, which saw a 46% surge in total machine sales, up from 39% last month, and the best Asian performance going all the way back to April 2011. Aside from China, however, the drought remained as every other region posted a decline in annual sales, led by Latin America (down 25%), North America (down 13%) and EAME (down 3%).

Looking at a breakdown of what kinds of machines drove the global rebound, it was all construction related machinery, which rose 7%, once again entirely due to China, where sales soared by 56% as all other geographic regions posted negative sales. Elsewhere, the contraction among resource industries continued, with world sales down 19%, and even China declining by 1%. The only region higher, perhaps predictably, was EAME where sales of resource machines rose 23% in March.

Finally, looking at the type of Energy and Transportation machines sold, Power Gen, Industrial and Transportation all declined( -7%, -6% and -3%, respectively), while Oil and Gas rose by 15% in March.

Putting it all together, the following chart of CAT global retail sales.

As a reminder, the last cycle peaked in early 2011, just as the latest Chinese credit impulse peaked and rolled over, something it has also done in recent weeks. As such, CAT retail sales may be the best concurrent, or slighly lagging, indicator of the Chinese reflation trade, which as UBS explained recently is the fundamental driver behind the global reflation impulse.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
spastic_colon's picture

why does it matter? the stock price never reflected reality anyway.

WTFRLY's picture

This will underpin multiple new levels of bullish bullshit

BorisTheBlade's picture

One needs heavy equipment to build that most beautiful wall. Well, maybe after all, corporate austerity is over.

nuubee's picture

It's not too late for Obama to use this as evidence of his Recovery.

Déjà view's picture

Dimaggio would be a Proud Yankee...

baby_tone's picture

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do...

Shinebama's picture

I've got a way you can make 50 bucks, and it won't take more than 5 minutes.

BorisTheBlade's picture

When did he ever need any evidence to claim something?

Arnold's picture

I killed Osama bin Laden.


Arnold's picture

One needs an office seizure and audit to turn things around.

Are you watching and listening, Federal Reserve?

hannah's picture

i really dont care what the percentage increase was/is at this point. did they make an extra $46 or $46million. they could have sold an extra $45 gasket.....

Reichstag Fire Dept.'s picture

NYSE:CAT is still in negative earnings... -US$0.12 per share.

quadraspleen's picture

at 1500BST futures (all of the indexes that is) just jumped like someone stuck a cattle prod up their arse..surely not this?

NoWayJose's picture

Any coincidence that the government began an investigation into CAT's accounting practices a few months ago?

I think so! Did you miss that story Tyler's???

espirit's picture

Tyler's covered the story awhile back.

If I'm not mistaken, it was the Federal Office of Creative Accounting Practices and FinPorn that did the raid.



coast1's picture

so China is propping up the housing bubble in the U.S., now they are propping up CAT?   Where do they get all this money?    Gold/silver slammed today, dow up 200, oil is down.  Altho, they are having a more dificult time slamming gold/silver down, it just props right back up...The important thing to watch for, is how their slams do not quite do what they use this summer as they sell paper gold to keep gold down, and it doesnt work....Its an important sign

FreeShitter's picture

Where? CTRL-P of course.

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

China is O.G. Ctrl-P

Fiat money originated in 11th century China,[11] and its use became widespread during the Yuan and Ming dynasties.[12]

The Song Dynasty in China was the first to issue paper money, jiaozi, around the 10th century AD. Although the notes were valued at a certain exchange rate for gold, silver, or silk, conversion was never allowed in practice. The notes were initially to be redeemed after three years' service, to be replaced by new notes for a 3% service charge, but, as more of them were printed without notes being retired, inflation became evident. The government made several attempts to support the paper by demanding taxes partly in currency and making other laws, but the damage had been done, and the notes fell out of favor.[13]


sinbad2's picture

"Where do they get all this money?  "

They make stuff and sell it, I'm old enough to remember when that was how you measured the wealth of a nation.

Librarian's picture

I was waiting for someone else to say it.

I can log off with some satisfaction now.

orangegeek's picture

from full retard to fuller retard


1stepcloser's picture

Just in time for the next collapse.... 

CoCosAB's picture

At least they start the next collapse on the "positve" side!

BuddhistAescetic's picture

It seems governments around the world are propping each other up financially.  Maybe we can't out wait them afterall...

CoCosAB's picture

Man... That's tragic! Now that the US economy is going to collapse again, causing another funneling of wealth to the Ruling Families and theirs mutts, CAT leaves the negative trend! Ironic!

starmathers's picture

Excellent. One company final increased anemically from rock bottom where you can only go up. This at the same time almost 4000 retail stores are set to close along with multiple bubbles from student loans to car sales. America is decaying by the day no matter what the media spins.

HominyTwin's picture

Great! Now the stawk will quadruple, now that it has positive sales growth. As opposed to merely doubling when sales growth was negative. I love stawks and the central banks that back them!!!!

ToSoft4Truth's picture

Multiplier effect from the Carrier tax break.  Cheap air conditioners = construction boom.  Who knew?  (Trump).

JoeTurner's picture

That's it, I'm quitting my barista job and becoming a day trader of's like so totally easy to make money 

ali-ali-al-qomfri's picture

just follow and listen to Gartman,

and then do the opposite.

youngman's picture

What are they building in China...more steel factories...more dams....more vacant me they look a little overbuilt...

roddy6667's picture

They are building homes, factories (newer, more efficient ones), ofice buildings, highways, subway systems, airports, ports, office, research, and business parks, malls, electrical and heat generating plants, etc. No, it is not overbuilt. The homes are selling, the malls are busy as soon as they open. The hype about ghost cities is an internet meme. If you ever go to one, you will find hundreds of thousands of people living, working, and shopping there. The people who write those articles have a need to make China look bad. Tnhey know that nobody that reads the articles will ever go to the place in China and discover that the article is total bullshit.

CAT is dying in China because there are plenty of other companies that make quality equipment at lower prices. America is too expensive now.

Houses Depreciate's picture

My good friend ;)........ they're building empty cities. 

Now shut the fuck up and sit down.

roddy6667's picture

I live in China. I have been to Kangbashi in Ordos and some other "empty cities" Total bullshit. Kangbashi is over half full and has more than 150,000 people. It was built to house 300,000, Chinese style. If you Google it, you get hundreds of hits about how it is a ghost city. If you go there, you say WTF?? Where do these keyboard jockies get these stories for the Internet?

NoWayJose's picture

Federal agents raided Caterpillar's corporate headquarters on Mar. 2. At the time the company said that the warrant was focused on collecting documents and electronic information and was most likely connected to an IRS investigation. (NY Times)

Coincidence? Or is CAT finally being honest?

espirit's picture

Nah. Must tithe the correct amount to the Globull DOG.

fishwharf's picture

Good news.  Caterpillar makes excellent equipment.  I hope the company continues to do well.

paint it red call it hell's picture

"Caterpillar’s business interests in Sudan and Syria, however, continued through non-U.S. subsidiaries and decades-old relationships with exclusive dealer networks."

paint it red call it hell's picture

One word, Pavers....

That huge road bill to thank.

Conax's picture

This just in, a hundred and forty new D9s are covered with tarps behind the Fed Reserve offices...

ali-ali-al-qomfri's picture

what if they moved their corporate headquarters to Chicago.

That would be a win/win/win.



sinbad2's picture

What if they moved their factory to the market, China, oh, they already have.