51% Of Murders In The U.S. Come From Just 2% Of The Counties

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by John R. Lott, Jr. via Crime Prevention Research Center

 

The Distribution of Murders

The United States can really be divided up into three types of places. Places where there are no murders, places where there are a few murders, and places where murders are very common.

In 2014, the most recent year that a county level breakdown is available, 54% of counties (with 11% of the population) have no murders.  69% of counties have no more than one murder, and about 20% of the population. These counties account for only 4% of all murders in the country.

The worst 1% of counties have 19% of the population and 37% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties contain 47% of the population and account for 68% of murders. As shown in figure 2, over half of murders occurred in only 2% of counties.

Murders actually used to be even more concentrated.  From 1977 to 2000, on average 73 percent of counties in any give year had zero murders. Possibly, this change is a result of the opioid epidemic’s spread to more rural areas. But that question is beyond the scope of this study.  Lott’s book “More Guns, Less Crime” showed how dramatically counties within states vary dramatically with respect to murder and other violent crime rates.

  

 

Breaking down the most dangerous counties in Figure 2 shows over half the murders occur in just 2% of the counties, 37% in just the worst 1% of the counties.

 

Figure 1 illustrates how few counties have a significant number of murders. Figure 3 further illustrates that with a cumulative perspective. 54% of counties have zero murders, 69% have at most one murder, 76% have at most two murders, and so on. To put it differently, only the top four percent of the counties have 16 or more murders.

If the 1% of the counties with the worst number of murders somehow were to become a separate country, the murder rate in the rest of the US would have been only 3.4 in 2014. Removing the worst 2% or 5% would have reduced the US rate to just 3.06 or 2.56 per 100,000, respectively.

 

Even within the Counties with the murders, the murders are heavily Concentrated within those counties

When you look at individual counties with a high number of murders, you find large areas with few murders. Take Los Angeles County, with 526 murders in 2014, the most of any county in the US. The county has virtually no murders in the northwestern part of the county. There was only one murder each in Beverly Hills, Hawthorne, and Van Nuys. Clearly, different parts of the county face very different risks of murder.

 

The map below shows the distribution of murders in Indianapolis, with 135 murders. Although the city extends well beyond the 465 Highway that encircles downtown Indianapolis, there are only four murders outside of that loop. The northern half of the city within 465 also has relatively few murders.

 

Washington, DC has large areas without murders. 14th Street NW divides the eastern and western parts of the district, with murders overwhelmingly limited to the eastern half. The area around the capitol is also extremely safe.

 

Here is the murder map for Dallas.

 

Gun Ownership

According to a 2013 PEW Research Center survey, the household gun ownership rate in rural areas was 2.11 times greater than in urban areas (“Why Own a Gun? Protection is Now Top Reason,” PEW Research Center, March 12, 2013).   Suburban households are 28.6% more likely to own guns than urban households. Despite lower gun ownership, urban areas experience much higher murder rates. One should not put much weight on this purely “cross-sectional” evidence over one point in time, but it is still interesting to note that so much of the country has both very high gun ownership rates and zero murders.

Conclusion

This study shows how murders in the United States are heavily concentrated in very small areas. Few appreciate how much of the US has no murders each year.  Murder isn’t a nationwide problem.  It’s a problem in a very small set of urban areas, and any solution must reduce those murders.

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WTFUD's picture

Life/Death is a numbers Game!

D Nyle's picture

This wouldn't happen if they would just put up No Murder Allowed Signs and Made a Hashtag saying the Same, and don't forget Trade Guns for Hugs

buzzardsluck's picture

We have to prevent White people from moving into otherwise safe counties, white folks moving into a neighborhood historically equals tons of violence and other troubles..................................................

SumTing Wong's picture

Dare we point out how all the counties with all the murders voted in the last elections? I have an idea about this one...

Twee Surgeon's picture

They should have used Blue to save ink for the next related story called "Where are the Democrat voters and is there a crime correlation?"

The 'Free shit army' never sleeps.

Son of Loki's picture

I just ordered a "Do Not Murder Me!" bracelet from the Koln city hall gift shop.

Comes in bright red in German, English, Urdu, Arabic but not Ebonics as yet.

 

rfaze's picture

Maybe some type of demographic study could shed some light on the problem......

Handful of Dust's picture
Riot declared during US May Day protests in Portland

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/riot-declared-during-us-may-day-protests-port...

 

The pussy Portland police look mystified at the well-seasoned professional soros funded antifa masked troops.

wee-weed up's picture

 

 

"The pussy Portland police look mystified at the well-seasoned professional soros funded antifa masked troops."

Correction...

The pussy Portland police "look the other way and ignore" the well-seasoned professional soros funded antifa masked troops.

Handful of Dust's picture

It's incredible how many people and how much violence these thugs have done and yet almost none have been arrested.

 

Smells fishy.

Manthong's picture

Well, the good news is that if you live outside of mexifornia and carry.near a major population area, you are near a target rich environment and less likely to be subject to South American gang return fire.

 

Keyser's picture

From the heat map, it appears we can drop another 1.5% if we just nuke SoCal and Dade County in Florida... Do it from space, it's the only way to be sure... 

Hopeless for Change's picture

Those counties are all "Black and Blue"

JamesBond's picture

...and then there's California

jb

cheka's picture

lincoln was right.  liberia beckons....and mexico too

Paul Kersey's picture

Here's what the politically correct article did not articulate:

"Today, blacks are 42 percent of Philadelphia’s population and 83 percent of known murder offenders. Whites are now 37 percent of the population and 4 percent of known murder offenders.

If this went on in your own neighborhood, would you stay? Would you go out at night? Would you consider leaving the neighborhood, or even the city, if you could? Of course you would.

A quarter of a million whites did indeed leave.

As for race and crime in Philadelphia, most murders in the city were intraracial, black-on-black crimes. Of black murder victims, 95 percent were killed by other blacks. However, the report pointed to a major, noteworthy exception: “Caucasians and Asian Americans, on the other hand, were both more likely to be murdered by an individual of another race.”

blueskyranch's picture

Inner city blacks can't run nor hide. They are owned by their present day masters (Democrat party) who keep them in gov subsidized squalor within tightly defined voting districts by force feeding them BS and freebies. The inner city black is trapped by democrats and any caged animal will cage fight for their space/food/sex when the cage is full. The Liberals have caused this in order to achieve votes. Inner city folk are disposable.

Offthebeach's picture

In the old days Demicrats had whips and chains, but blacks dreamed of freedom.  Now the Dems have the Dem skool system where black brains are destroyed, neutered, and thus there is no need for physical restraints.    Where can a iinner city edjamakated black go?  Layered in subjugation with bait like Section 8, WIC, Didabillatee payments....perfect.  Dem plantation blackscat each election vote for the defense of the plantation. Blacks with promise are found and made overseers of their fellow blacks.

 

 

SweetDougisaTwat's picture

Meh.  You miss the biggest issue which is the genetically determined low IQ of the African.  I am sure you are spitting coffee out of your mouth right now--pissing mad.  But, it is true.  This is a race of human with inferior cognitive abilities.

Offthebeach's picture

There are piles of occupations not requring high ability.  Actually it helps to not be to troubled.  The point of inner city skools, and gov skools in general, is to destroy intellect.  Lower class, and lower intellects are not to question their betters.  Black, white, N. Korean.  It is not a specific race thing, it is a class power thing.  The elites do not want politically nor economically a greater supply of intellects.   

cheka's picture

skool is not what destroys their brains.  skoolz OFFER an education.  it is up to the students/parents to take it.

add the internet to the mix = no excuses, just willfull ignorance

Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Yup, we need more niggers!  So do China, Russia, and Japan.  Def helps improve any 'hood.

HooRAY4rSIDE's picture

Plus, they neglected to show the correlation chart that these same areas have absurdly higher consumption rates of Grape Drink than anywhere else.

 

Weird!

Offthebeach's picture

It's just, "drank"

All "drank" is grape, unless specified.  

"Momma, puts sum drank in mys Nishawns bottle and I be home from the club by too thirty"

FireBrander's picture

Philadelphia’s future looks bright! As oppressors (Whites) shrink in number, things can only get better!

The problem in Philly is still just too many whites; I would suggest they import ~20,000 Somalis to improve diversity and hopefully drive out more of the oppressor race.

It would also help if the Philly Chamber of Commerce put some more effort into advertising the city's "sanctuary" status for illegals from South of the border.  They should charter busses to haul people from the southern border to Philly for free. Illegally importing ~20,000 of South America's finest "immigrants" would improve diversity and further strip the oppressor class of it's power.

If you can get the White, Christian, former slave owning, oppressor population down below 5%, you'll be in great shape!

Go for it Philly! Show the world how it's done! 

jus_lite_reading's picture

Tylers should overlay this map with an election map....

OHHH YEAH! They line up perfectly!

Hillary zones = killing zones.

Bubba Rum Das's picture

"Maybe some type of demographic study could shed some light on the problem......"

What, you are too damn lazy to even briefly research the maps provided along w/ the article?

Coincidentally, if you do; you will find that the highest concentration of murders by county appear to be directly connected to the higher ratios of Blacks & Latinos living in those areas, which are also noticebly urban metro areas with high population densities, in addition to the high concentrations of minority's living there...
For example, areas such as the west & south side of Chicago, south central L.A., along with Miami/ Dade county in FL...

Bravo, we have a winner!

HooRAY4rSIDE's picture

I'll re-iterate ~ it's the Grape Drink's fault.

Mr. Bones's picture

Probably would have been more clear when crime was more concentrated.  There's been an effort in some municipalities to export crime to the suburbs.

johnduncan78's picture

I have a sign on front door: It's the classic circle with a line through it and a handgun in center. Under it it says "This may or may not be a gun free zone. Before entering, ask yourself: "do you feel lucky today?"  

A. Boaty's picture

That will deter anyone who can reed.

Rebel yell's picture

Excellent idea! And maybe we should pass a law making murder illegal! That will stop it!

rockstone's picture

Brilliant! That'll do it!

rockstone's picture

Brilliant! That'll do it!

any_mouse's picture

The Black community holds a march to "Stop The Gun Violence". Gun violence almost always occurs at the gathering.

Somehow for some people, the inidividuals are not responsible for their actions, it is always the result of white institutional racism.

Need to get them out of the urban hellholes. Work farms might be a good idea. Keep them busy with physical labor in the countryside. No guns allowed. Curfews.

They could still vote.

Castle Bravo's picture

The title of this story should be homicide rates concentrated in areas with the most minorities.

Uncle Sugar's picture

The pain will really start whe the majority becomes the minority

decon's picture

The premise of this analysis is obvious but unless they present the data as a rate (per capita) then it's really skewed.

Dsyno's picture

Or better yet, the article should be entitled "Homicide Rates Concentrated In Areas Where Drugs Come Through the Border"
Rival drug gangs vying for turf.

divingengineer's picture

Or how about we cut the crap and tell it like it is: more blacks= more murders.

brianshell's picture

I just saw a clip where California now has a majority of minorities.

MasterControl's picture

And from 12% of the population.

ebworthen's picture

"Dat's rayciss!"

TheBigCluB's picture

Yeah! I just got banned for pointing that out!

Lore's picture

Ain't rayciss. I just wants da troof.