Goldman Joins JPM On The Bearish Side, But Gartman "Remains Bullish Of Stock Prices"

Tyler Durden's picture

First, it was Bank of America with 4 reasons why the rally in stocks is ending, then earlier today, JPMorgan presented 6 "red flags" why investors should quietly start offloading risk exposure.

Now it's Goldman's turn to warn that "bad news is no longer good news" and that "from here we forecast muted returns for equity and think it will be difficult for the market to decouple meaningfully from the macro data for an extended period of time."

What concerns Goldman, is what JPM also highlighted as its top risk: the sudden collapse in the Citi Economic Surprise Index, which in recent weeks has plunged from nearly all time highs to negative, and warned that stocks could see as much as 10% downside absent a sharp reversal in the CESI.

"The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index rolled over sharply recently and is now in negative territory. We note that the weakness was partly due to the CPI miss last month, which could be a one-off, but most recently the US manufacturing datapoints have weakened, as well. If the strong correlation between S&P500 and CESI holds, stocks could see almost 10%+ downside."

JPM also flagged that "equites typically perform strongly after ISM moves above 56 – this has played out to script, and ISM has now rolled over."

There were various other considerations listed by JPM, which readers can find in our earlier post, however the jist is clear: investors are once again not reacting to negative news or deteriorating macro data.

Which brings us to Goldman's Ian Wright, who late this morning issued a note that was a virtual carbon copy of JPM's concern titled "This week's focus: ISM manufacturing down, S&P 500 up" in which he argues that after weeks of ignoring negative data, it is now time to pay the piper, based on the abovementioned two premises - rolling over macro data, and a pullback in the ISM.

His full thoughts:

The ISM, Q1 GDP and core PCE in the US recently came in below consensus and GS expectations, and the China PMI disappointed as well. Although the ISM remains above 50, it fell for the second straight month, by 2.4 points to 54.8, with the new orders component falling significantly. However, the S&P 500 was actually up 17 bps on the day the ISM fell, leading to the question of whether investors should trust the positive market performance or the negative macro surprise as an indicator of where the market may go from here.

 

From here we forecast muted returns for equity and think it will be difficult for the market to decouple meaningfully from the macro data for an extended period of time. In March the US market actually faded somewhat as policy optimism did as well, even though macro surprises were generally positive during that period. But now macro surprises have closed the gap (Exhibit 1). We think further positive macro surprises will likely be needed if the market is to perform well going forward.

 

We have written previously that as the ISM slows down returns are usually lower - but not necessarily negative - and volatility usually picks up eventually as concerns about growth materialise, but that this will likely take time.

And after concluding that "equities have digested worse macro data very well after lagging better data in March", Wright asks whether "bad news is good news?

For the Goldman strategist, as for JPM, the answer is "not any longer."

What about Dennis Gartman? This is what he said in his morning note discussing the recent move in the Dow:

THE DOW: This is NOT the Action of a Top! Tops are made in violence, not in tepid, modest price ranges such as the ranges of the past five or so trading sessions. This is instead the action of a consolidation and so higher prices are still the most likely path of the least resistance.

 

... we remain bullish of stock prices generally and continue to recommend owning stocks rather than being neutral or short of them. One needn’t be wild-eyed bullish for that might prove ill-advised given that our favorite indicator of the market’s collective psychological foundation… the CNN Fear & Greed Index… has gone from having been quite dramatically over-sold several weeks ago to utter neutrality presently given that the Index has closed for the past several days at near perfect “neutrality.” However, if the past is prologue to the future, this index will eventually make its way toward excessive optimism where the public has thrown caution to the proverbial investment winds and at that point we’ll hopefully have enough investment “savvy” to move to the sidelines. Time only shall tell.

So Goldman bearish and Gartman bullish. We look forward to the tiebreaker.

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InjectTheVenom's picture

Gartman is bullish ?

Fuck me.

Just bought some calls yesterday.

Time to bail !!!!!!

NugginFuts's picture

IT'S THE SIGNAL!!!! SELL SELL SELL!!!!

BullyBearish's picture

the "never wrong" fartman indicator...

Erek's picture

Advice from Gartman is the same as a bald-headed barber recommending a tonic guaranteed to make hair grow!

JRobby's picture

SELL EVERYTHING !!!!!!!!

Gartman has spoken

Muddy1's picture

Gaertman is bullish. My shine boy, Tyrone, he said, "The mawket gwyne to be goin' up, up, up.  It's surely is Marse' Tom."  And I have sold........... everything

Proctologist's picture

Or a proctologist recommending a room with a view....

abbottmd's picture

yeah but every once in a while someone will end making a randomly correct call, otherwise Gartman's calls would be an arbitrage free lunch to bet against

blueberry100's picture

Gartman bullish Sell, sell sell.

Uncle Sugar's picture

If it hurts when I drop it on his head I'm a buyer

NugginFuts's picture

you buy rocks?

jk I buy heavy things that old fashioned people used to think of as "real money". 

MD's picture

Why are Goldman and these other banks so blatantly bearish? They must be making money off dumb retail investors buying equity puts and VIX calls.

Keep that in mind when you read these articles. They're trying to sell you something.

onthedeschutes's picture

Oh shit...here we have two conflicting reliable signals...on the one hand, you know the banker is going to lie right to your face.  On the other hand you know Gartman is always dead wrong.  This is indeed a quandary.

espirit's picture

 

Indeed it is a quandary, that and the fact it rained here for the first time in months.

 

Think I’ll go get BOB ready…

  

Hongcha's picture

As always, you can see it either way.  A man has to "tell his own story" as to why he is positioned the way he is.

agstacks's picture

Oh shit, it's on!

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Choose your destroyer: Gartman, or the Muppetizer.

bobert727's picture

"Time only shall tell."

 

Thank You Captain Obvious!

niemand's picture

last words of false prophet fartman :

death came as release.

ThankUGartman's picture

I'm so confused since last time we heard from Mr. Cartman he was calling for a healthy 5% pullback which never came. Some say trade Gartman only when he's short and go long but don't trust his bullish calls as a sign to go short. It will seem so clear by Friday that much I know.

aloha_snakbar's picture

Gartman... bullish??? OMG... SELL SELL SELL...

Tonterias's picture

Everytime a scary news comes out, a new record high is reached!!!!

SP500 @ 3000 by year end. ABSOLUTELY!

Tonterias's picture

Everytime a scary news comes out, a new record high is reached!!!!

SP500 @ 3000 by year end. ABSOLUTELY!

Nobodys Home's picture

Hard to say, which side to take the opposite trade?
Goldman's muppet suggestion or Gartman's obviously strangely wrong call.

ZH Gartman quote:
"You guys at Zero Hedge need to cut me a break."