Who Is Interested In A Conflict In North Korea?

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

In case of war with North Korea, the US would face a military challenge as perhaps never before in the last seventy years. This is why a conventional deterrence is actually more important than the nuclear one if we break down a realistic war scenario. The downside is that the DPRK is fully aware that if it responded to a US attack, even in a limited way and only on military targets, it would be flagged as an aggressor, paving the way for a larger foreign intervention.

To answer this question, it is necessary to examine what would entail a US attack on North Korea. Suffice it to say that as the neocon Senator John McCain has admitted, the US would be unable to defend Seoul (as well as its US bases nearby) in the first 24 to 48 hours of a conflict. A city of 20 million inhabitants, together with military bases containing thousands of soldiers, would suffer untold loss of life.

The United States would certainly suffer huge losses, revealing weaknesses that could be exploited in future conflicts, a consideration that would need to be considered if contemplating shooting down DPRK missiles.

China would certainly not be happy to risk a humanitarian catastrophe on its own border, not to mention being eventually forced to intervene to defend its ally (there is a treaty between the two countries). Japan and South Korea would be hit hard, being clearly exposed to a North Korean retaliatory attack; so they clearly do not want a war with Pyongyang. The great truth about the Korean Peninsula is that despite the fact that every country flexes its muscles and seems ready to act, no one wants this eventuality, as no one could win this war, and everyone would suffer devastating effects both economically and militarily. This is not to mention the popular uproar that would arise from so many civilian deaths, let alone were there to be a nuclear escalation.

In the Korean peninsula, we are faced with a great strategic game in which the DPRK becomes more difficult to attack with each passing day, thanks to its conventional forces rather than its nuclear power. This is something that western planners tend to ignore in order to avoid accentuating the power of the DPRK. Unfortunately for them, this is something that is far too well known to US soldiers, and especially South Koreans, which is why a real attack on the DPRK is absolutely out of the question for Seoul.

Finally, there is a worrying aspect to consider for the DPRK’s opponents, namely the alleged ways in which the DPRK preserves and launches its conventional forces. In the parade on April 15, a large availability of solid-fuel mobile platforms was displayed. This creates two great advantages: the first being the ability to launch a missile within a short space of time, thereby minimizing the risk of detection during such things as refueling operations; and the second, of course, being the ability to launch a missile and then quickly change position (shoot and scoot). With mobile launchers, it is impossible to track and hit all such systems in a preemptive attack. This is without factoring into the equation the North Korean submarines that are said to be able to launch medium- and short-range SLBMs with conventional or nuclear warheads.

An indication of the confusion that prevails amongst military planners regarding North Korea can easily be seen with the story of USS Carl Vinson. Ships with significant attack capabilities, Trump said a few days ago, were sailing towards the DPRK with the intention of inducing Kim to talks through military intimidation. However, the reality was that the carrier group was actually thousands of miles away, continuing to navigate in the opposite direction. Even without this ridiculous situation, US military leverage hardly works with the DPRK for the reasons explained above.

With this unprecedented gaffe, the United States is at least divided internally on what to do, sending a troublesome message to its allies, leaving them with the following set of questions: Is Trump really in control of the armed forces? Can his words be taken seriously? Is he consistent with his intentions? The first 100 days of the Trump presidency raise these questions, and in difficult scenarios such as the one that obtains in the Korean Peninsula, they take a heavy toll. At the end of the day, in Korea we are faced with a lot of smoke and mirrors, threats and promises. But realistically, no one wants an actual conflict.

On the contrary, war rhetoric rewards virtually all the actors involved.

Japan and South Korea aim for more American involvement in the region, but for very different reasons.

The South Korean elite is in a crisis, Park Geun-hye daughter of the founder of the country having been fined for corruption and the likely new president seeming to have positions on the DPRK and the alliance with the US that are very different from that of his predecessors. The danger the US sees is that a substantial part of the South Korean elite prefers a shift from a strongly anti-DPRK and pro-US policy to a more balanced one, especially with China, South Korea's main partner. The best solution to prevent this change is to raise the level of tension with the DPRK (and, as a consequence, with China), aiming to solidify the US presence in the country (witness the urgent deployment of the THAAD system, which candidate Moon Jae-in seems to oppose).

The Japanese case is even more explicit, with Abe's nationalist vision aiming for a constitutional revision that does away with the limits placed on Tokyo’s armed forces.

The US war industry will of course benefit, ready to sell weapons of all kinds to Japan in to reassure its ally over the “North Korean threat”.

China and Russia start from different assumptions in their relations with the DPRK, but both have enough problems on the world stage to become embroiled in an open crisis involving the DPRK. Obviously, Moscow and Beijing would like a reasonable diplomatic resolution, negotiated by several actors, with the backdrop of talks with the Iranian Islamic Republic over nuclear matters. The latter is a matter, as we have seen, that is difficult to reach between Washington and Pyongyang for lack of mutual trust. In the case of an extended negotiation with other regional and global actors, perhaps Beijing and Moscow could ensure the inviolability of the DPRK’s territory in exchange for disarmament that would lead to a lifting of the sanctions and embargo on Pyongyang.

This is still a controversial consideration, as Russia and China should provide military aid to the DPRK without Pyongyang having nuclear deterrence. From another point of view, it is the conventional forces of the DPRK that provide real deterrence, so a multi-stakeholder peace proposal is to be considered the second most likely outcome of tensions in the region.

What will happen next?

In the first place, a likely outcome is immobility and inaction, coupled with strong statements filled with threats from both the US and its allies, as well as a defiant response from Pyongyang. Personally, I am convinced that Kim would like an acknowledgement of his country’s status as a nuclear power in exchange for a halt in his development of nuclear weapons, thereby standardizing relations with neighbors and with the United States as well as gaining greater independence from China.

It should not be surprising that Pyongyang also has a more multi-polar vision in its foreign policy, but this relies more on Washington than Beijing. Unfortunately, it is difficult to imagine an immediate resolution of the situation given the commitment of Japan and South Korea to maintaining a hostile climate for the DPRK in the region, calling for American involvement. It is likely that the situation will not degenerate but instead return to normal as tensions in the region progressively subside, without seeing any particular concessions from either side.

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LN's picture

The Banksters.

What did I win?

LN

LN's picture

A greenie What?  You've got me worried now.  Maybe I don't want it.

LN

Archibald Buttle's picture

sure you do. here's another.

FixItAgainTony's picture

Nothing to be gained in NoRK. I think the whole Armada of Doom thing is a distraction away from prep for a major assault on Syria. Then when the Syria attack happens, the so-called free-world give a sigh of relief that its another Turkey shoot instead of nukes popping over Honolulu.

kellys_eye's picture

Loook at the distribution of 'missile defense' systems around the world (American-installed).  A pattern emerges that shows them surrounding Russia and China.  If one wanted to make a pre-emptive strike to maintain a hegemony then placement of your defensive assets is the primary task followed by the strike..... with fingers crossed that the defenses work.......

Is it any wonder Russia and China are increasingly worried about way NK is being 'manipulated' to allow THAAD to be deployed?

Pava's picture

same forces that are interested in conflict between USA & Russia / China...or Serbia vs. European Union...muslims...next question

1.21 jigawatts's picture

Da Joos.  Its always da Joos.

whatswhat1@yahoo.com's picture

He looks presidential in glasses. /s

HooRAY4rSIDE's picture

Yeah, but he still looks like he just removed his DOW 21,000 hat.

whatswhat1@yahoo.com's picture

Once, I was also the victim of a Korean hairstylist. 

Omega_Man's picture

boring.........

roddy6667's picture

The warmongers of both parties fear a reuniication of Korea. The American Army and their missiles aimed at China (not North Korea as claimed) would be kicked out. The new One Korea would become a regional powerhouse. The South has an aging demographic, the North has younger workers who would work cheap. Win Win situation for the Koreans.

It is America's policy to destroy countries to maintain its hedgemony. Almost all the countries in the Mideast (except Israel), a lot of South America, and othbers. America works against any country that is trying to do right by its citizens.

Dancing Disraeli's picture

"America works against any country that is trying to do right by its citizens."

Especially America itself.  Thus the max resistance to MAGA.

GeezerGeek's picture

Just out of curiosity, can you mention a few countries that are "trying to do right by its citizens"? Most seem to be ruled by elites more concerned with their own benefit than anything else. Most of the Latin American countries don't really seem to qualify, nor do the North American ones. The Europeans, with the possible exceptions of a few like Poland, seem to be captured by the EU monstrosity. Africa? Middle East? Asia? There must be some, so what are your candidates?

PeakOil's picture

Close, but not quite. Nothing to do with "America's" policy. America is simply a tool used. Albeit America is a massive hammer that "The Network" has been using world-wide for the past hundred odd years to bludgeon nation states into submission. Into giving up any and all national sovereignty.

Almost done now.... Syria, Russia, China(?), the Noks and Iran stand in their way. The rest of the world is already sewn up.

 

Dr. Bonzo's picture

In the Korean peninsula, we are faced with a great strategic game in which the DPRK becomes more difficult to attack with each passing day, thanks to its conventional forces rather than its nuclear power.

Soooo, this is utter and complete bullshit. I patrolled the DMZ and know Eastwards and Westwards from coast to coast. The Nork's only real offensive capabilities are its arty tubes, and they have a lot of them.

Have US and ROK planners known about these things for the last 60 years? Yeah. Have they completely ignored the threat? Yeah. Have the Koreans completely oblivious to any real threat from the Norks continued to grow Seoul from a city of a few million to a megalopolis of 14 million over the last 45 years completely ignoring the very real consequences of endangering the lives of their citizens? Yeah.

So don't come dragging bunk and horseshit arguments in here.

The Norks were never a serious threat, absent those fucking tubes, until we allowed them to acquire nuclear capabilities, and voila.... here we are today.

The arty can be neutralized inside of a 72-hours with sustained tactical air, the nukes are a different story.

The ROK security situation is one nurtured and developed by 40-years of wilfull ignorance and deliberately ignoring the signifcant threat posed by the North, through political coddling and gamesmanship. There's nothing strategic to Korea in the fucking slightest. It's an appendage to Northeastern China that goes straight to Siberian tundra.... yawn.

Pull out all US forces and let the Koreans have at eachother. Could honestly care less at this point.

But don't come in here yacking about strategic dickshit. IF the CFC had intended to neutralize the Norks, they had 50 years to do so and refused to move on them. Now that ship has sailed. Tough shit. You have no one but yourselves to blame.

I'm so fucking glad I'm not in anymore. I'll enjoy it all on my flatscreen in HD with surround sound and gleefully listen to the botched translation of wailing Koreans.

rtb61's picture

It seems more about curtailing China than anything else. As it turns out China has been a force for stability, whilst the US as a result of the control of the war industrial complex has been a major force for instability to drive arms sales.

Investment by Chinese businesses is largerly controlled by the government of China to promote it's long term diplomatic interests, from South East Asia to the Middle East to Africa, China investment has hugely promoted stability and as a result much stronger ties with all the countries in those regions to China, in fact far better ties with the government of China than with the US government.

Right now the US is being succesfully pushed out of South East Asia and the Middle East due to it's greed and belligerence, as a result of corrupt US corporations running US government military and diplomatic efforts, with a singular focus on ruthless exploitation and using military force to retain control, on behalf of those corrupt US corporations controlling US policy.

They are indirectly targeting China to halt it's continued investment expansion and growing diplomatic ties and instead of halting it, in the most stupid fashion imaginable accelerating it. The US government is using the tactics that drive ties with China, to curtail stronger ties with China, when those tactics are what created the problem in the first place and are now hugely accelerating it.

It's like US strategic thinking has completely collapsed as a result of greed driven stupidity whilst Russian Chess masters and Chinese Mahjong masters are out playing the US thinking many moves ahead, whilst the US is playing a game of this quarters profits and executive bonuses and fuck everything else.

Grandad Grumps's picture

North Korea needs a central bank... according to Satan. So the satanic press creates a fabricated excuse to murder. Thank you satanic princess Rachel Maddow. Satan loves you.

Cluster_Frak's picture

Junior will get popped in a China orchestarted coup. China does not want US troops at its borders, so the question of reunification is out of question. China needs a buffer zone.

aloha_snakbar's picture

Remember what happened the last time we fought a war in Asia? We got our ASSES KICKED by a bunch of little fellers wearing pajamas...

JuliaS's picture

Caller: I have all these Vietnamese moving in to my neighbourhood, I don't like it! Too many of them! There's a Vietnamese family living right next door to me. All of these Vietnamese coming over here taking our jobs, how would they feel if a whole bunch of Americans just decided they wanted to move into Vietnam?

Host: I'd imagine they would probably spend the next ten years fighting a bitter defensive war, many of them living underground in a series of interconnected tunnels, until through a combination of military genius and ideological conviction they achieve a victory over the greatest military power ever known. But then the United States realises the territory it has lost militarily, it can still control economically and so using IMF structural adjustment programs they prise open the Vietnamese economy to transnational banks and corporations, thus triggering the financial crisis which leads to the collapse of social welfare provision, thereby causing doctors, nurses and teachers to migrate to the United States and look for work in branches of Dunkin Donuts, where they are paid wages so low, they are forced to move in next door to ignorant white trash.

- Robert Newman

Archibald Buttle's picture

thanks for that one. i just may start on a tunneling project this weekend, if i can find the time. be prepared, as they say.

DEMIZEN's picture

Its is hard to win a foreign war if you have nothing in for the upper class. vietnamese are here because they were promised to be hauled to US in exchange for collaboration with US army. The Same with Syrians. Expect now norks moving in case of succesful liberation.

 

You cant invade a country without a bribe to the top layer. Look what happened in Syria. all but 40 soldiers abandoned quisling units. there is nothing in for them to fight on our side. same shit with koreans somalians and the rest of the nomansland. you cant expect to find someone to collaborate with your units without a promise. 

the us promise is now worth zero anyway so they have to pay the proxies in cash. now the saudi cash is running out.. what now?  downsize the mic?  another fucking humongous collapse in fake gdp.

dunce's picture

The south Koreans examined their failed missile parts andfound they were Chinese guidance and other systems. could it be that the Chinese knowingly gave them flawed equipment to sabotage their program??

pizdowitz's picture

Pieraccini, you're an idiot. You should have given at least some credit to the Masters.

NK is merely a proxy for the installation of THAAD in SK, and re-grinding of the Japanese into cannon fodder for the US. It's all about the "Russian eastern flank".

InnVestuhrr's picture

Nuke these turds, reunite the 2 Koreas under rule of the south, then bring USA troops home.

Simple Final Resolution.

sinbad2's picture

If the US occupied the north as well as the south, the US would send more troops and nukes to Korea.

The US would love to have an invasion force 50 kilks from the Chinese border.

King of Ruperts Land's picture

what exactly would you nuke and how would that result in the outcome you talk about? Would you nuke the south also? The North has greater conventional forces and stronger leadership, so if a war starts it will all end up under control of the north not the south. A bunch of nuking won't change that.

John Prewett's picture

"It is likely that the situation will not degenerate but instead return to normal as tensions in the region progressively subside, without seeing any particular concessions from either side." .......

IOW:  Trump eats crow.   

besnook's picture

so fucking stupid. does anyone think china cannot ontrol nk? the only reason nk appears to be at odds with china is to do china's bidding. what china is bidding is a conflict with the usa to show korea and japan that the usa talks a big talk but really can't or won't do anything to protect korea or japan. it is all part of the greater asia properity circle(a japanese inspiration) linked to the sco all linked to the new silk road by land and sea- planes trains, automobiles and ships crisscrossing asian with endpoints in old europe to britain. kim may be negociating his severance pay since a unified korea fits right into china's plan. what better plan than to have the usa initiate it.

sinbad2's picture

The US is putting pressure on China, via NK, the Chinese are responding to American pressure, but economically.

Notice how sales of American owned companies have plummeted in China?

China can send GM broke within months.

They are also pressuring SK in the same way.

The THAAD first strike nukes are a red line for China.

dogismycopilot's picture

i just bought $20K in Raytheon so yeah, I'd like to get this thing started and clip 2% a month.

onmail1's picture

Hey ppl in west , look at ur children
think what'd happen when they become white prostitutes
in other countries
---------------
Cheers & Thumbs up N.Korea
for standing against west

West is only printing money
and buying(looting) all good goodies from rest
while threatening also the rest
west only exports bonds & bombs and
watches countries get destroyed
The rest was exploited by vampire west for hundreds of years
of piracy, colonialism, slavery, looting , murders & landgrabs
Its enough now

West has gone too much far
America,Canada,Britain, France, Germany, Belgium, NATO , Australia
All these are WAR CRIMINALS feasting on human blood
west creates terrorists ISIS, ISIL, Al-Shabab,Al-Queda, Al-nusra etc
and pretends to fight them & gets Nobel prize

The western ppl before Christianity came were
human flesh eating cannibals practicing witchcraft
And their ancestor demons have possessed them now & are
driving the west into present wars
Western hunger for human blood is insatiable
We need heroes to tackle west

So again thumbs up to N.Korea & Kim
West only understands language of deterrence
so let them have it, see the effects:

1 Nuclear strike on USA : All financial system crashes, EMP destroys electronics
2 Nuclear strikes : Ppl come on streets against their own govts
3 Nuclear strikes : civil war breakout in USA
4 Nuclear strikes : Break up of USA
5 Nuclear strikes : west begs for food & aid
6 Nuclear strikes : ppl in west start leaving , become migrants
7 or more Nuclear strikes : west is waste land their ladies work as white prostitutes & men as hard labor in other countries
---------------
Look what ur own Lord Jesus says(Matt5:5): 'The meek shall inherit the earth'(after the nuclear war)

ur bible says 'A small stone(N.Korea) will strike at the clay feet of the golden statue(west) and then the statue will fall down to dust'
---------------

How many white prostitutes u want man?
depends , first ISIS will lay claim to all hah ha

ISIS will remarry these white sex slaves 25 times a year; 100 times in 4 years
then what will be left of these white females , only diseased mass of STD & Aids

Archibald Buttle's picture

i think you greatly overestimate the number of nuclear strikes it will take for good ol' Merika to break out into civil war. as to the rest, wtf are you on about?

ropeknot's picture

I think the better question is; who thinks all the troops in N. Korea will obey Kim when it comes down to it?

I'd guess that none want him around and freedom is on their mind.

Just take him out and the dominoes will all fall.

sinbad2's picture

The Korean people will not die for Kim, anymore than the American people would die for Trump.

They are fighting for their country, they have nowhere else to go, it's either defeat the American invaders, or die.

It's just like Vietnam and Afghanistan, they won't ever stop fighting for what is theirs.

sinbad2's picture
"Who Is Interested In A Conflict In North Korea?"

 

USA USA USA.

War, it's the American way.

LA_Goldbug's picture

Lets be precise.
0.001% -ers

beijing expat's picture

The Empire is committed to taking down Russia. The plan is to be implemented in the Baltic area. Probably under the guise of renewed fighting in Donbass and a strategic false flag. they will try to capture the Kaliningrad region, for humanitarian purposes of course, and calculate that this would cause a sufficient loss of prestige for Putin, that he loses power and a puppet can be installed. They don't calculate that what comes after Putin might be much less patient and agreeable.

Because of this, the empire has no interest in a conflict in Asia for now. It comes after Russia has been conquered and dismembered. Neither are they interested in ME entanglements. It's time for the main event.

So don't worry about what happens in Asia this spring, worry about what happens in Europe this summer. Trump has been duped by the McCain clique, and the wheels are in motion.

LA_Goldbug's picture

"a larger foreign intervention"

A what, Coalition of Willing ? I bet there will be a shitload of unwilling and smart people asking themselves the question "What a hell for am I go there ?"

Likedeeler's picture

Who would be interested in conquering the world largest rare earth deposit

http://www.mining.com/largest-known-rare-earth-deposit-discovered-in-nor...

 

LA_Goldbug's picture

Holy Smokes !!!!

That information if correct makes it Obvious that NK is in the wrong hands and needs to have "demo-cracy" installed ASAP. US experts need to "help" the People of Korea in realizing their dreams,

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/c8/05/24/c80524f0240a05f3...

ds's picture

Take down the 'fat boy' who threaten to nuke the World. This message is reverberating in Asia and just need to be amplified. Whatever Trump does will not be a total loss to his image with this message and whatever you try to tear it down that there are ulterior motives. the threat is present  and now. You do not negotiate out of FEAR.

Provoking is also a 'win'. It exposes China to a loss of face among its neighbours that it cannot even keep them safe from the 'fat boy'. Is NK worth the price vs the rest of Asia that China wants to court. Provoking in staying in the South China Sea as an excuse is another challenge to China's red line looking more each day like some pink g-string.

There will be no agreement within and outside the US. Those in US who feel that there is a need to hand over US hegemonies for free in Asia and that Asian People rightly belong to US are free to swap places. With that it includes Trump Oligrachy that is much better than the largely Crony Governments in Asia and a China Panda that is currently an Economic Ponzi.

 

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StrikerMax's picture

the most interested part in a NK war is :

1 -  Apple

Destruction of the Market LEader by far is awsome ... Samsung makes far better smartphones and their revenue is Way Bigger then Apple add to that LG and also the SK semiconductor production capacity and you get a total destruction of  the Market Leader in smartphones, TV's, and much more.

Also Smasung supplies Apple with a lot of electronic components but those could be shifted in productio. Also Apple has tons of cash they could invest once their main competitor is taken out ...

2- INtel and AMD ... INtel made a mistake not producing ARM ships when the time was right, like .. 8 years ago. Now they see Most of silicon revenue Flow to Market LEader Samsung wich made HUGE progress on Silicon producing technology namely on the 14nm fabrication process and now they're catching up with Intel cpaacity and technology.

That is valid for CPU's, Flash for SSD technology were Samsung is a Market Leader, RAM prodcution,  and much much more.

3- Car industry in USA ... SK cars are very well made and becoming a major force in the market.

4- Ship making industry ..

and whatever else they got on that they're actually a good market competitor ...

the best way to get rid of a market competitor you can not win is to eliminate his country with War ...

I bet no one has seen this angle yet ...

Eyes Open good folks ... Eyes open ...

 

 

 

 

Youri Carma's picture
Trump on NK War: You´ll find out soon enough by Tim Rifat
May 2, 2017 mix624
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbsC6dM72fE