Stocks Shrug As Obamacare Ouster Trumps Commodity Crash, Crude Carnage

Tyler Durden's picture

It's beginning to get hard to ignore the carnage coming from China...

 

So Macro data is collapsing...

 

Commodities are collapsing...

 

And earnings expectations are tumbling...

 

Obamacare repeal trump'd commodity carnage and then stocks clung to unch...

 

The Dow is unch post-Fed, bonds and stocks lower...

 

VIX was smashed lower after the Obamacare Repeal vote, desperate to keep Nasdaq green to show what a great thing this Bill is...

 

The S&P 500 has now closed within a point or so for 8 days...

 

USDJPY ended at the lows of the day...

 

Commodity carnage was the theme of the day as tightening Chinese financial conditions combined with collapsing WMP issuance are sucking the exuberance out of stocks, bonds, and industrial metals...

 

The Dollar Index tumbled, back below pre-French election levels..

 

And 30Y yields back below 3.00% (despite another kneejerk higher)...

 

For now, Trannies and Small Caps are the only ones seemingly aware of reality as Nasdaq tech malarkey remains open bid...

 

Brent broke below $50, WTI ended with a $45 handle and RBOB below $1.50... There will be blood...

 

Citi FX traders noted that as for WTI from here, we’ve noted that $47.00 is the level to watch on a weekly closing basis. Now testing $45.90, our oil colleagues warn that there’s “capitulation out there.”

Open interest has reached a record high. Directionally, in addition to unwinds, fresh selling has been noted since late April - even before players took focus on the (now distant) 200d MA.

That selling continues in this downturn. Psychological support is undoubtedly the $45 area and should that go, those constructive oil will likely get quite worried. Of course there’s OPEC but with the market now fully expecting a 6m extension, that announcement may have fleeting impact.

The crude carnage smashed the Ruble to 2-month lows (testing its 100DMA...

 

 

Meanwhile, Silver ETF is down 14 days in a row - and all-time record run...

 

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Bigly's picture

I needed some chart porn. Thanks!!!

StackShinyStuff's picture

Sucks if you been trying to catch a silver bottom

HooRAY4rSIDE's picture

Stocks shrug as the sixth sick shiek's sixth sheep's sick.

 

Alotta alliteration for terpituidous Tylers placating petulant pilgrims

Almost Solvent's picture

It sure beats a power bottom.

StackShinyStuff's picture

I'm sure that's what a lot of silver longs feel like

Stan Smith's picture

As someone who has to some degree engage in chart porn to pay the bills,  I do find them helpful.  

However, maybe less is more if they expect / want to have folks actually soak in what they are trying to say.

Instead of saying everything at once on one thread.   Just saying.

Bigly's picture

                                                      `

BlueHorseShoeLovesDT's picture

Standard "market" pattern, I never get tired of winning.

spastic_colon's picture

cant wait for the futures comedy the night before france round 2.....i'm advising all clients that we have definetly reached a permantly high plateau because equity is the most tangible of all investments!

Traderone's picture

One could really do with a decent pullback in order to buy again for new all time highs, this range trading of late is becoming tiresome, profitable none the less but still tiresome. Trade accordingly.

BlueHorseShoeLovesDT's picture

Boring works.

 I just go to the gym and wait for it.

Traderone's picture

As a fellow might say 'if you want excitement then climb a mountain'. Good luck tomorrow B.

Rebel yell's picture

I was wondering if the super mighty preemptive insider stock sell off resulted in insider bond buying. Not Apple specific. Would any ZHer happen to know?

This is very strange! Nestle bonds usually issued in $500 million amounts. Set to expire 1-16 -18 $500 million with a 1.25% coupon, and then $133 million with a coupon of 3.75% set to expire on 1-18-18! This looks like an insider sweetheart deal if I've ever seen one!!! Also $400 million issued with a coupon of 1.375 % set to expire 7-24-18 and then $152 million with a coupon of 3.875% set to expire on 7-19-18!
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/bonds.aspx?symbol=nsrgy

Same bizarro world bond market at IP!!!
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/bonds.aspx?symbol=ip

And how is this for WTF?! Del Monte has no bond data available for Morning star?!!!!
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/bonds.aspx?symbol=fdp

Insiders at X are acquisition heavy:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/x/insider-trades

All of this fits in with my theory that the corporations are deliberately trying to bankrupt America with a two poison pill strategy on the left, increased social spending and expensive wars, on the right, massive tax cuts and expensive wars, and then a fire sale sell of of our sovereignty in piecemeal as previously happened in Russia to the corporations of every thing- federal land, parks, water, waste management, roads, education! This would leave us in a modern day Mussolini world of fascist corporate statism
I believe that this is what Clinton's pay to lay was all about!! Agenda 21 calls for public private partnerships! People didn't donate $1.6 trillion to the Clintons because they are nice people!!!

PontifexMaximus's picture

I'll pay you and ur family a 5 course dinner on the french riviera if you bring me those bonds quoted on these yields, ur first ref.

Rebel yell's picture

Ha! I wish I had those! Sorry, must be an insider or his mistress! Certainly not me! Very suspicious! Dollar amounts are really weird and out of whack too! It's hard to believe that CDs were paying 6.5% less than a decade ago! I was opposed to the bailout and the ZIRP but raising rates at this point is a deliberate takedown of the entire economy! If they simply want to pop the equities bubble, all that they have to do is raise the capital gains rate to the equivalent of earned income and they damn well know it! That would allow Main Street to continue surviving! Wall Street has waged war on Main Street! Like we stand a chance!!!

brodix's picture

Been saying that for years. Disaster Capitalism is going to come home to roost.

The problem will be that while people function linearly, nature operates cyclically. How many years before it blows up in their faces? 

 Blowback is a bitch.

Being Free's picture

Well dang-it Tyler!  You keep on-a-tellin me that that there is some kind'a fancy French parfume...an all I smell is horseshit.

Obamacare "Repeal" my ass.

Seasmoke's picture

Cmon Gold. Get off the mat and fight back. Time to Lnock these assholes out !!!

jamesmmu's picture
Canada’s Housing Market Bubble Is At The Horizon Of Implosion; What Implications Will It Have For The Canada’s Economy If The Housing Bubble Does Burst

http://investmentwatchblog.com/canadas-housing-market-bubble-is-at-the-h...

Al Huxley's picture

So everything was down today - commodities, commodity currencies, yen, bonds - what got bid?  Where's the USD spike to offset all the panic position closing?

Juggernaut x2's picture

I'm just a bill, on Capitol Hill.

 

Rainman's picture

State Farm burned by yuuuge insurance losses due to all the knuckleheads texting and driving....fires 4200 emps

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-04/state-farm-to-displace-4-200-workers-close-11-u-s-locations

swampmanlives's picture

Meanwhile, Trump's pick Jay Clayton, who is a lawyer and represented Goldman Sachs, is sworn in as SEC chair.

roadhazard's picture

whew, that could have been ugly.

gm_general's picture

Child: "Mommy, why if the macro data in April is falling off a cliff does the man on TV say low GDP in Q1 is just a fluke and better GDP is coming in Q2?"

Mom: "Be quiet dear and take your blue pills, you will understand soon!"

polo007's picture

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-investor-anxiety-that-the-markets-fear-...

The Investor Anxiety that the Market’s ‘Fear Gauge’ Is Missing

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, remains low as investors shift protection strategies away from S&P 500 index options

By Gunjan Banerji

Updated May 4, 2017 10:16 a.m. ET

Volatility has nearly vanished in stocks, but investors wary about stocks are hedging in other ways.

Despite geopolitical uncertainties and a mixed outlook for the U.S. economy, the CBOE Volatility Index, called VIX, sank to a decade low on Monday, fueling questions of whether investors have grown complacent and if the absence of turbulence is sustainable.

The VIX is based on options prices on the S&P 500 index and tends to move in the opposite direction of the stocks gauge. Dubbed “the fear gauge”, it is a widely watched measure of investor anxiety but also has drawn scrutiny in recent years because of its persistently low levels.

The gauge’s low this week suggest investors are relying less on S&P 500 index options for protective insurance on their portfolios. Market watchers say investors are instead using alternative ways to manage risk in their portfolios, such as options strategies that generate income as well as options on U.S. government bonds.

“I don’t think the current levels in the VIX reflect the risks in the system,” said Josh Thimons, a portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co.

He said some who have “become disenchanted with equity puts have looked to find other markets they think will offer more of a hedge.”

Call options on Treasurys is one way investors have sought protection recently, according to Mr. Thimons. Calls give investors the right to buy an asset at a later date, while puts give the right to sell.

Bullish call options on 10-year Treasury futures have seen a flurry of activity recently. The number of contracts linked to a 1.36% yield has increased by almost sixfold since mid-April, according to data from CME Group and QuikStrike. In comparison, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was at 2.309% Wednesday, suggesting that investors are using the Treasury call options to protect themselves in case of a sharp market reversal. Bond prices rise when yields fall.

Meanwhile, income-generating strategies, which include covered calls, have become so popular in recent years that they’re actually keeping a lid on volatility itself, says Thomas Peterffy, the founder and chief executive of Interactive Brokers Group Inc., considered a pioneer of options trading.

Covered calls involve selling a bullish option, a call, on a stock that the investor already holds.

unsafe-space-time's picture

I guess socialist spending on sick people really fuels the economy