April Payrolls Jump By 211K, Beating Expectations Although Average Hourly Earnings Disappoint

Tyler Durden's picture

Well, the Fed said the recent disappointing economic data would be "transitory" and based on the just released jobs report, it may have been somewhat right, because after growing only by a revised 79,000 jobs in March, payrolls rebounded in April, rising by more than the expected 190K to 211K, in line with the optimistic whisper estimates. The not so great news: March payrolls were revised materially lower, and denying expectations of a solid upward revision, March payrolls were said to rise by only 79K, below the 98K initially reported.

Nonfarm private payrolls rose 194k vs prior 77k; est. 190k, range 155k-270k from 39 economists surveyed. Manufacturing payrolls rose 6k after rising 13k in the prior month; economists estimated 10k, range 0k to 15k from 23 economists surveyed

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised up from +219,000 to +232,000, and the change for March was revised down from +98,000 to +79,000. With these revisions, employment gains in February and March combined were 6,000 lower than previously reported.

The change in household employment was up 156k vs the prior +472k.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped, declining from 4.5% to 4.4%, below the 4.6% expected and to the lowest level since May 2007, as the participation rate declined.  Underemployment rate 8.6% vs prior 8.9%

In April, the number of Americans not in the labor force rose by 162K to 94.375MM, the highest of 2017.

Perhaps the most important indicator the Fed is looking at, Average Hourly Earnings, was somewhat soft, with the Y/Y number missing expectations of a 2.7% increase, rising only 2.5%, even as the monthly increase of 0.3% came in line with expectations, although here too the March monthly increase was revised downward from 0.2% to 0.1%, suggesting wage growth remains very much elusive for most workers. 

The silver lining here is that average weekly hours rose fractionally to 34.4 from 34.3, in turn helping drive average weekly earning up to 2.6%, the highest since December,

Finally, some details from the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 211,000 in April. Employment rose in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, financial activities, and mining.

 

In April, leisure and hospitality added 55,000 jobs. Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up over the month (+26,000) and has increased by 260,000 over the year.

Employment in health care and social assistance increased by 37,000 in April. Health care employment continued to trend up over the month (+20,000). This is in line with the industry's average monthly job growth during the first quarter of this year but below the average gain of 32,000 per month in 2016. Social assistance added 17,000 jobs in April, with all of the gain in individual and family services.

 

In April, financial activities added 19,000 jobs, with insurance carriers and related activities accounting for most of the gain (+14,000). Over the year, financial activities has added 173,000 jobs.

 

Employment in mining rose by 9,000 in April, with most of the increase in support activities for mining (+7,000). Since a recent low in October 2016, mining has added 44,000 jobs, with three-fourths of the gain in support activities for mining.

 

Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in April (+39,000). The industry has added 612,000 jobs over the past 12 months.

 

Employment in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and government, showed little change over the month.

 

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in April. In manufacturing, the workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.7 hours, and overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours.

 

In April, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 7 cents to $26.19. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 65 cents, or 2.5 percent. In April, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 6 cents to $21.96.

 

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised up from +219,000 to +232,000, and the change for March was revised down from +98,000 to +79,000. With these revisions, employment gains in February and March combined were 6,000 lower than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 174,000.

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Shocker's picture

This is great news,
But we still have a long ways to go, but lets continue to get this country back on the right path.

Hiring List: http://www.dailyjobfix.com
Layoff List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

.

FrozenGoodz's picture

What do we wanna revise this down to?

Giant Meteor's picture

Apparently you have one vote for 2 and another so far of -1

LoneStarHog's picture

Birth/Death Model ADDED 255,000 (TWO HUNDRED AND FIFTY-FIVE THOUSAND)!!!!!...WTF?!?!?

Giant Meteor's picture

Hold on, be right back, let me consult magic 8 ball on this ..

JRobby's picture

Work harder, longer, get paid less. That sounds about right!

Magic 8 Balls should be flying out the door at this point........"What kind of 8 ball?"

Dr.Bullish's picture

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... http://bit.ly/2jdTzrM

Giant Meteor's picture

Well I use various stimulants to simulate magic 8 ball on drugs, then subtract or add using the birth death model, and multiply by a factor of 10, with the square root of ..

ah fuck it, it complicated ..

ChanceIs's picture

Work harder, longer, get paid less. That sounds about right!

How else do you expect the government to continue to hide the Social Security insolvency?  Don't tell me by bringing in more illegal aliens.

Giant Meteor's picture

Yep, Magic 8 ball says this all checks out ...

War is avoided ..

Phew that was close ..

 

spastic_colon's picture

so this time it should be bad news?? cuz last time it pushed indexes to highs again.......right?

and all with absolutely no inflation!! we are so winning! /s/s/s

bobert727's picture

More bartenders, waiters, and waitresses.....god this is a great economy!

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

So on Friday night you pay me to pour your drinks, then on Saturday night I'll pay you to pour my drinks.  Good system, right?

I am Jobe's picture

Opiods, Hookers, Blow and College students using Dad adn Moms money to party . 

RawPawg's picture

am i still required to give Trump credit for this?

A. Boaty's picture

You must give Fearless Leader credit for anything good, but no blame for anything bad.

JRobby's picture

23 is approaching reality, yes.

Giant Meteor's picture

That campaign was really something ...

I think he had it covered in the "it's all fake folks" tagline .

Phillyguy's picture

Where are all of these NEW jobs coming from?

spastic_colon's picture

dually employed uber and lyft drivers..........you get 2 for 1

syzygysus's picture

2 part time jobs for every full time layed off?

Giant Meteor's picture

Whole cloth manufacturing ..

 

Seasmoke's picture

Where's Bernanke and his normal rates at 6% unemployment ????

Just a Bunch of fucking thieving, lying Tribe members.

0valueleft's picture

To see
To bleed
Cannot be taught
In turn
You're making us
Fucking hostile

EhKnowKneeMass's picture

Tweet from Trump in 1... 2... 3...

scoutshonor's picture

So, this shit show continues--sigh.

spastic_colon's picture

the serial down voters have been deployed by soros i see............

spiral galaxy's picture

No, the serial up voters are the Soros crowd. No credit for anything positive. ....and lots of snark in each.

Giant Meteor's picture

Credit for what exactly? Who or what is suppose to be given credit?

The POTUS ran his campaign on everything is fake, the market, and everyting else is "fake" the plebes getting endlessly bent over, fake news, fake markets, fake government, and government statistics, so he get's credit on revealing what many have known all along. Many took him at his word .. they received that bulletin.

Meanwhile, and within weeks of the election, Trump takes credit for said fake bubbles, has his Goldman guy out front, publicly stating, you have him to thank for ever rising equities, nothing is fake anymore, other than the mainstream news of course (which is true), or anything else that challenges the latest narrative of endless bullshit.

Not to mention the fact, as you brought him up, Trump has his own sordid history with dark lord, Soro's ..

Credit? As in good faith and credit ? This thing is a continuing, ongoing farce of biblical proportions, or LEGO movies, and any "credit" can be equally spread around liberally to red team, blue team duoploy, central banking, fraud and deception, various grifts and grifters, and of course the Ameriscam public who every 2 and 4 years fails to identify this chronic deception, hat trick, that is continually played on them, over, and over and over again.

Lots of credit to go around I say ...

bogdan11's picture

Manufacturing payrolls up 6K, the rest is ''service'' jobs. Truly pathethic. How many bartenders/cooks/greeters this economy can produce ?

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

Welcome to Costco, I love you.  Welcome to Costco, I love you.  Welcome to Costco, I love you.  Welcome to Costco, I love you.  Welcome to Costco, I love you.  Welcome to Costco, I love you.  Welcome to Costco, I love you.

ChanceIs's picture

Hmmmmmmm.

Same as with Obama.  Job gains in the previous months are revised downward ex post facto of the brilliant job growth headlines.  Yea!!!!!!  Unemployment downdue to the ever decreasing labor participation rate - those not looking for or unable to find jobs get kicked out of the unemployed statistics.

Giant Meteor's picture

"Full Employment" under Obama .. Permanent lift has been achieved by simply not counting !

chicken_goose's picture

I simply refuse to accept these NFP numbers as of late (by which I mean several years now). Are we really supposed to believe that there hasn't been a single month with a negative NFP print in 6.5 years? That is by far the longest streak of positive numbers since they started recording these data, no way are these numbers accurate.

man from glad's picture

Yeah one can't beleive what .GOV says. I think the way they calculate the NFP it is possible to have a negative resulting number. And the CPI ? -what a joke.

Seasmoke's picture

The hourly is the REAL news. They have got us to become slaves working 2 part time jobs at $10@hour. And yet Still NO Revolution ?????

FreeShitter's picture

Never will be until you take away EBT.

0valueleft's picture

To see
To bleed
Cannot be taught
In turn
You're making us
Fucking hostile

bogdan11's picture

''The Fed was somewhat wright''. Tyler, are you drinking the kool aid from these idiots ?

Fiat Burner's picture

Government employment statistics are hocus pocus.  The just make up shit with their birth/death model.

Winston Churchill's picture

No shit, you expect the truth from pathological liars ?

Beatscape's picture

Green light for the Fed to raise rates June 13. 

lil dirtball's picture

> Green light for the Fed to raise rates June 13.

Lol ... the green light at the end of the tunnel is a train wreck:

Bankrupt America: Interest On Debt Alone Approaches A TRILLION Dollars

http://www.commoditytrademantra.com/economy/debt-crisis/bankrupt-america...

Ricki13th's picture

Labor participation rate decline meaning less people in the workforce. Thus the unemployment rate dips. Can't have two bad reports in a row to mess up the fed's rate hike in June.

youarelost's picture

350K is a good number  ,, 211K  sucks

ThankUGartman's picture

Are they giving robots SS#'s now?

eeaton's picture

I read the Birth/Death number was 255K that sure helps

small axe's picture

whoever cooks the books at the BLS has a bright future in Democratic election polling