Here We Go Again: NY Fed Cuts Q2 GDP To 1.8% From 2.3% (Atlanta Fed Still At 4.2%)

Tyler Durden's picture

It appears that the Atlanta Fed and NY Fed GDP trackers have decided to flip.

While last quarter, it was the Atlanta Fed which started off optimistic, predicting just shy of 3% in Q1 GDP growth, only to slash it all they way down to 0.4%, the NY Fed kept its exuberance - in big part due to reliance on soft data - until the bitter 0.7% Q1 GDP announcement by the BEA last week.

But, it's now a new quarter, and everything resets, and while the Atlanta Fed has once again started off strong, expecting 4.3% initially although modestly trimming its exuberance to 4.2% in Q2 GDP yesterday - a number which we expect to decline materially once again - this time the NY Fed, perhaps wishing to avoid another quarter of mockery, is far more cautious, and in its latest just released Nowcasting report, the NY Fed now expected Q2 GDP to grow by only 1.8%, down from 2.3% due to "negative surprises from the ISM manufacturing survey as well as import and export data only partly offset by positive surprises from the employment report."

Meanwhile, the consensus Wall Street estimate is currently at 2.7%, ranging from roughly 2.1% to 3.2%. If this again proves overly optimistic, one can always blame the weather. Again.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
syzygysus's picture

They announce anything and revise to nothing.  But the market moves only on announcements and weather.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I thought only corporate America played with the (earnings) numbers?

Looney's picture

 

The Fed should replace the slow GDP-circumcision with the GDP-amputation.  ;-)

Looney

GUS100CORRINA's picture

FIGURES LIE and LIARS can FIGURE!!!

What else needs to be said when information is coming from DESPOTS with REPROBATE MINDS?

Below is the TRUTH from http://www.shadowstats.com/

========

No. 883: First-Quarter 2017 GDP, Consumer Liquidity

April 29th, 2017

• Weaker-than-Expected First-Quarter GDP Real Growth of 0.69% Was Suggestive of Stalling Economic Activity

• Headline Growth Likely Faces Downside Revisions in the Next Two Months

• Final Sales (GDP Net of Inventory Change) Rose to 1.62% from 1.07%

Better-Quality Series Show Continuing, Protracted Economic Collapse, with No Recovery of Pre-Recession Highs and No Economic Expansion

• First-Quarter 2017 Velocity of Money Rose Minimally for M3, Declined for M1 and M2

• Renewed Stresses on Consumer Liquidity

 

No. 884: March 2017 Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Real-World Employment

May 4th, 2017

• April 2017 Real-World Employment Conditions Continued in Annual Decline at a Pace Not Seen Since the Depths of the 2009 Collapse

• First-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Narrowed Minimally versus What Had Been on Track for a Minimal Widening

• Despite a Decline in March, First-Quarter Construction Spending Surged with Massive, Upside Monthly Revisions to January and February Activity

• Real Construction Spending Remained 21.1% (-21.1%) Shy of Recovering its Pre-Recession Peak, Still Holding in Low-Level Stagnation

Ring_Of_Fire's picture

Whole world's gone completely crazy.. I'm thinking we are real close to some hell breaking loose, including the biggest bubble in history stock markets..

Hal n back's picture

I was a business turn around "artist" for a while in my career (til I got tired of my parked car getting  vandalized)

I'd go in to a troubled comoany and first cut out all frills, non productive work being done.

If we did that in government I bet we woudl cut out at least 1/3 of those jobs and then another 1/3 as  imroved productivity in the remaining jobs including updating computer systems which apaprently has not been down in a large way in a couple of decades-to keep deficits from risisng.

 

But then the unemployed number would go up for a few months til they become discouraged.

 

2_legs_bahhhhhd's picture

So does this mean when the GDP comes in negative, the next month they will revise it to positive? Or is it negative now with the bullshit built in.

A. Boaty's picture

Why yes, of course. Simply cut waste, fraud, and abuse. Why didn't I think of that?

remain calm's picture

Don't worry that fat fuck in Atlanta will as soon as he gets back from Dunkin Donuts. 

Soul Glow's picture

Who cares, Yellen said GDP is a "noisy indicator" anyway.

Snaffew's picture

she said the same thing about her own queefs.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

So much for 'transitory'.

Hal n back's picture

define the duration of transitory

BSHJ's picture

No need to bring sex or gender into the discussion

ebworthen's picture

They must have sacrificed the wrong goat for the reading of the entrails.

You never choose the goat that's been hanging out by the dumpster.

gammab0y's picture

How can anyone continue to fool themselves that these models are remotely "scientific" when two models within the same navel-gazing agency provide such  different results?

It's as scientific as throwing chicken bones on the floor of your hut.

crazybob369's picture

I disagree. Throwing chicken bones has more validity. If bones strong and healthy looking, good mojo, good future. If bones weak, bad mojo, bad future. Much more scientific.

Yen Cross's picture

   That's because N.Y. Fed uses both hard and soft data. Either that or they're playing "good cop- bad cop" reversed this month.

  I suspect the Atlanta number will drop drastically soon. It's only the beginning of the month.

Juggernaut x2's picture

How much will gutting Obamacare suck out of GDP? 

virgilcaine's picture

Atlanta folk aren't the brightest of folk.

Seasmoke's picture

It's raining hard today. And cold too. Mark it DOWN. 

Justin Case's picture

The fake numbers always come out when the official speech is broadcast, cause everyone is all ears. After the real numbers come out there are fewer people see it, specially abroad in other countries. All previous data leading up to the final didn't make sense, b/c they were weak leading up to the FED's official announcment. Have you ever seen a revision upward? Always overly optimistic.

Blankfuck's picture

Fed Fuckers delight, masters of mind fuck!

Winston Churchill's picture

My eyes are getting worse, i can't see the minus signs in front of the figures.

Giant Meteor's picture

My first thought as well. 1.8 a bit optimistic ..

 

Deep Snorkeler's picture

Economic growth,

rates falter.

Technology stagnates,

minds shrink.

Entire communities condemned,

to poverty and ignorance.

Western civilization overwhelmed,

with decadence and,

cultural collapse,

Ruled by sociopathic finance capitalism.

 

 

Giant Meteor's picture

A fairly decent summation. Well done .

BSHJ's picture

And these numbers are from the 'experts' who know more than anyone else......good grief

J J Pettigrew's picture

This is a cul du sac of idiocy.

The Fed keeps rates low, kills the velocity of money in so doing...

Trump plans to cut the size of the federal govt....

Federal spending is roughly 1/3 of the GDP....

so the GDP limps in...and Fed is "hessitant" to normalize rates....

round and round we go... as theories of those who "can never be wrong"......ARE

Bernanke promised normailization of rates when unemployment got to 6.5%......now 4.4% .and still NO.

Will govt officials...or GSE officials....or Fed officials ever be accountable?

 

silverer's picture

There's a twist. Productivity following interest rates. Because if interest rates are higher, so must productivity be to cover the nut. Relax 6%, everybody. Money is still nearly free.