Lowest Turnout Since 1974 As France Decides The "Future Of The EU"

Tyler Durden's picture

Update: as of 5pm, the French voter participation was 65.3%, which is the lowest in presidential elections going back at least all the way to 1988:

  • 2017 : 65.30%
  • 2012 : 71.96%
  • 2007 : 75.11%
  • 2002 : 67.62%
  • 1995 : 66.07%
  • 1988 : 70.63%

And according to a separate accounts, the voter turnout was the lowest going back all the way to 1974.

An estimate by elabe/BFMTV estimates the final voter turnout at just 74%, which would make it the lowest since 1969.

* * *

According to the French interior ministry some 28.54% of registered voters have cast their votes in the presidential election by 12:00 a.m. local time (1000 GMT) on Sunday, a lower than expected initial turnout and the lowest at this stage of the day since the 2002 presidential poll, when it was 26.19%. Prior midday turnouts were 30.66% and 34.11% in 2012 and 2007, respectively. A final turnout of 75% is expected at this election; the eventual turnouts in 2002, 2007 and 2012 were all above 80 percent.

Voter apathy did not prevent both candidates from voting for themselves, however, and both did so early on Sunday.


Emmanuel Macron casts his ballot at a polling station in Le Touquet, France.


Marine Le Pen casts her ballot at a polling station in Henin-Beaumont, France.

While parallels with the US election in November have suggested that a low turnout may have an adverse impact for Macron, it remains unclear who is the biggest winner from French voter apathy. Pollsters have said abstentions would be highest among left-wing voters, disappointed by Sunday's choice after nine other candidates were eliminated in first round, but it is unclear what a high or low turnout could mean for the outcome. That said, even a modest boost for Le Pen based on early voting patterns would likely be insufficient if latest polls are an indication: Macron was set to win the head-to-head with between 61.5 and 63 percent of the vote, according to the last opinion polls on Friday

As two weeks ago, polling stations at France's European continent opened at 8 a.m. (0600 GMT) and will run for a maximum of 12 hours. Those in the largest cities will close at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT). In France's oversea territories, the voting was held on Saturday. Over 47 million French voters are registered to cast their votes at some 69,000 polling stations.

The stakes are familiar: as Reuters puts it, "Macron, who wants to deregulate the economy and deepen EU integration, is set to win the head-to-head with between 61.5 and 63 percent of the vote, according to the last opinion polls on Friday. Should an upset occur and Le Pen win, the very future of the EU could be on the line given her desire to close borders, dump the euro currency, and tear up trade treaties."

In an analysis posted yesterday, famous French investor Charles Gave said that even a Macron victory would result in "total mayhem" in France as the resulting parliamentary elections would likely lead to broad governance chaos. Furthermore, even a defeat would be seen a victory of sorts for Le Pen: the 48 year-old's vote is likely to be about twice what her party scored the last time it reached the presidential second round in 2002, demonstrating the scale of voter disaffection with mainstream politics in France.

Markets, meanwhile, are confident a Macron victory is assured.

"We increased our equity exposure and added some French stocks after the first round," said Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Geneva-based fund management firm Prime Partners. "The major political risk of a Le Pen victory appears to be disappearing."

 

After a campaign in which favourites dropped out of the race one after the other, Le Pen is nevertheless closer to elected power than the far right has been in France since World War Two. If opinion polls prove accurate and the country elects its youngest-ever president rather than its first female leader, Macron himself has said himself he expects no honeymoon period.

Macron's task will be difficult: up to 60% of potential voters for the young politician have said they will do so to stop Le Pen from being elected to lead the euro zone's second-largest economy, rather than because they fully support the former banker turned politician. "I don't necessarily agree with either of the candidates," psychotherapist Denise Dulliand, who was voting in Annecy in the mountainous southeast, told Reuters. "But I wanted to express my voice, to be able to say that I came, even if I am really not satisfied with what is happening in our country, and that I would like to see less stupidity, less money and more fraternity." Should Macron disappoint, it is quite likely that the fickle electorate will turn quickly against Francois Hollande's former cabinet member.

Whether Macron's supporters will get their wish to see Le Pen lose, will be revealed at 8pm local time, when the first exit polls are disclosed.

Meanwhile, investors are already setting their sights on the upcoming French parliamentary elections next month in which the new president will try to secure a majority in parliament. According to Reuters, much will depend on how the candidates score on Sunday. Le Pen's niece, Marion Marechal-Le Pen, on Thursday told L'Opinion daily that winning 40 percent of the vote would be "a huge victory" for the National Front, something Charles Gave echoed yesterday,who said Le Pen's daughter is poised to be a formidable force in 2022 presidential elections.

In any case, whoever wins, the result will be "historic" and will open a new chapter in French politics, with both French legacy parties, the Socialists and The Republicans that have ruled France for decades, swept away from the chance to retain power for the first time in decades, in an embarrassing defeat in which the French population denounced an establishment status quo that has failed them.

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BullyDog's picture

Dammed if they do, dammed if they don't.

 

However bankers win both ways.

Looney's picture

Marine Le Pen’s success can be easily explained, but how did Macron, 39, even get to the finish line?

<<<   ALL Geriatric Cougar-Wannabes in France are living vicariously through his 64-y.o. wife and they always vote.

<<<   The French people believe that Macron will Make France Great Again (btw… the last time France was Great in 1812).

Looney   ;-)

JackT's picture

Eveeyone is busy digging up rocks and filling bottles with petrol for tonight's "celebration"

SafelyGraze's picture

reclusive former-politician makes *this* prediction about the french election.

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Kotzbomber747's picture

Calm down everybody, nothing dramatic will happen...

Giant Meteor's picture

Something dramatic ALWAYS happens ...

Drama, it's what humans do !

Kotzbomber747's picture

Nothing will happen, and no, gold will not skyrocket tomorrow and those DJ/SP500/PSX put options that anyone bought on Friday will not suddenly explode to the upside tomorrow morning.

They. Won't. Allow. It. To. Happen. (as a matter of fact, gold will probably be pushed further south on a Macron win, when the Asian markets open tonight)

Furthermore, it's not just about France, it's also about subduing any critical voices in Germany. When France does 'the sensible thing' today in the eyes of TBTB and the MSM, then this will be fodder for further mainstream media propaganda for Septembers elections in Germany. As a matter of fact, just like during Brexit and the US elections, the Germany Gestapo Propaganda Machine is aleady in full swing. Were France on the other hand to elect Le Pen today , then the shit would hit the fan and the German AfD (which is in big internal turmoil right now, by the way) could get a huge boost.

France's election today will be portrayed as a 'thank god, the sensible people prevailed' in Germany, and they will play the historical guilt card to subdue the Germans into voting for the traditional parties in September.

Don't worry, as I've said many times before: They. Won't. Allow. It. To. Happen.

Period!

espirit's picture

Viva le dupe?

Viva le douche?

 

Future Jim's picture

Either way, the NWO wins.The real choice they are giving us (from their perspective) is, "Do you want to things the easy way - or the hard way?"

A vote for Macron says to NWO: "We surrender to the NWO."
A vote for Le Pen says to NWO: "Let's do this the hard way."

Americans said to NWO: ."Let's do this the hard way."

shamus001's picture

I respectfully disagree; Should Nazi Germany have won, the white supremacy future would look VERY different from the "powers" running things now (which is set to decimate white families) - remember that different generations have different feelings, and the viewpoints of the children are not neccessarily thesame as their parents.  MY POINT? - If you do not like the future being set forth for you, fight it! and outlast that oppressive movement until the next generation changes it's mind and moves in a different direction.  RESISTANCE IS NOT FUTILE because hearts fight for free, Empires PAY their warriors, and money runs out, whereas hope for a brighter future does not.

Giant Meteor's picture

Thoughful analysis here, well reasoned, and you could well be correct.

The trouble as I see it, no matter these well planned details of mice and men, reality is a cruel master at times, nature having plans and designs all it's own. The point being, global instability is what's for dinner. In this sense it matters not WHO wins these contests. My vote is for increased financial instability, leading to increased anxiety and restlessness around the globe ..

In short, the black swan gets a vote too  ..

I do not say this with any relish or glee, but it seems clear to me the wheels are coming off the bus,

Might not be today, probably not tommorow, maybe not even next week, but at some point there will be a reckoning.

 

reload's picture

Sad but probably true. You forgot to mention Holland though.

DeadFred's picture

Their motto is order from chaos. By definition they will allow chaos at some point. Maybe it's today. Maybe not. What would Soros do? Seed some chaos is my guess.

reload's picture

Sad but probably true. You forgot to mention Holland though.

shamus001's picture

Yes, I heard you and yours saying "They won't allow it to happen" - then UK voted BREXIT

I heard you and yours saying "They won't allow it to happen" , as Hillary was popping bottles of Champaign, - then US voted TRUMP

Now the question isn't whether you can get 1 out of 3 correct, the question is will you ever stop pretending like you know something others don't?

AS FOR THE LOW TURNOUT....THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN A CALIPHATE DECLARES TO BLOW UP VOTING BOOTHS AND VOTERS WITH THEM.

TheReplacement's picture

Has the UK actually exited yet?  No.

Has Trump made a meaningful difference in at least exposing the global crime syndicate that is the bank?  Let's ask President Kushner.

Le Pen, seemingly far more legit and far less manipulatable than Trump, will not be allowed to win.

remain calm's picture

I am betting that Macron has stock in Astroglide and Pfizer?

I Write Code's picture

Nothing is something that never happens.

SolidAssets's picture

she was a waitress in a cocktail bar now she owns a jet... http://bit.ly/2jdTzrM

Giant Meteor's picture

Well it sure wasn't the tips ..

Mazzy's picture

The tips of nips perhaps?

Can we assume that Macron's wife was a child molester and that he is her victim? 

Who abandons 3 kids and a husband to marry a male 24 years her junior?  And what kind of Oedipus complex must Macron have to want that in return?

GUS100CORRINA's picture

One word for low turnout: APATHY!

In the cycle of nations, this phase is a sign that the END is NEAR for the FRENCH culture.

America has the same problem in some counties as well.

I believe people are just SICK and TIRED of being RAPED, PILLAGED and PLUNDERED by CORRUPT leaders and are asking: WHEN IS THIS BS GOING TO END?

Terminus C's picture

Compare the polling stations each of them are at.  I think it aptly defines the issues in the election.

Terminus C's picture

Where are our resident astrologists?

I'd like to know what the stars have to say about this election...

Mr 9x19's picture

i just told you the result, with a +/- 3 %

macron won.

period. i know the result from 12:40 AM....

those media are so lame.

Ajax-1's picture

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no. Oh wait......Nevermind.

chubbar's picture

They are going to rig the voting, the EU masters of the universe aren't going to leave this to chance after the Brexit disaster. They had the same plan in the US but they never saw the massive turnout for Trump, mainly due to them eating their own soup (polling) instead of just looking at the fucking turnout comparisons during campaign rallies.

Anway, Macron has the vote rigged for him by 5-10% or so and they are hoping this is enough to counter any misreads on the voter turnout/polling. That should give him his 60% but believe me, they aren't leaving this to chance.

tostaky06's picture

It was obvious, but this forum believe LePen is equivalent of trump, that is totally wrong, she s weak, she make politic just for the money ... Trump was a real selfmade, Le Pen is the shame of the France ... 

TheReplacement's picture

Besides Trump's inheritance...  At least we are pretty sure that Le Pen does not have any inlaws named Kushner....

Anderson Coopers Gerbil's picture

Bet he hasn,t banged that old cout since he was 16

Savvy's picture

Wiki says their affair began when he was 14. Is that who France wants for a 1st lady?

bugoutbagzyklonB's picture

The whole marriage and affair is all a charade.

Macron is a closet homosexual and I called it yesterday before the file leak. He is on a homosexual mailing list and is a hard drug user....Sound familiar to anyone we know in the USSA?

My other premonition is that he is heavily involved in pedophilia. French Pizza

RiverRoad's picture

Whadda ya know, everything old is new again:  a president with a beard.

rockstone's picture

There was a time (Not all that long ago.) when what passes as FLOTUS today could only enter the WH through one of JFK's secret tunnels......

fleur de lis's picture

Apparently the French do not mind her past inappropriate behavior with a minor, nor the emotional damage it might have done to her own children.

But they do mind financial mismanagement.

That pretty much sums up their cultural values, and why their culture is being officially degraded more and more every day.

Perhaps in those days pedophilia was not well understood so she got off the hook for lack of a criminal code.

By today's standard's she would be called a sex offender. 

BarkingCat's picture

I had a shot at a young substitute teacher when I was in high school.  Too bad I was too dense to recognize it quickly and act upon it.

Still, had I done the wild thing with her,  I would still be remembering it fondly today and not as some sexual abuse.

Then again, I was 16 and she maybe 25 at most. Far cry from a 40 year old.

fleur de lis's picture

Easy for you to say but you really don't know how you would have remembered it.

Furthermore you really don't know how it would have affected you becuase you did not know her.

Raging hormones, dense perception, and a loose teacher makes for potential trouble one way or another.

Hopefully she recognised her own poor self control and left the teaching field.

Killdo's picture
BREAKING: Macron emails lead to allegations of drug use, homosexual adventurism and Rothschild money

 

http://theduran.com/breaking-macron-emails-lead-to-allegations-of-drug-u...

SoDamnMad's picture

When the Big Four went into the first round, there were a few pics of Micron's wife. Now nothing. What's a matter? Can't she hold a candle to Demi Moore?  I wanted to see how good or bad French plastic surgeons are.

salbass's picture

The childless Macron is either a homosexual or such a vapid cunt that no woman of quality would want him. It's stunning how far France has degenerated culturally that they might actually elect such a derelict...

Fake Trump's picture

American voters voted for Trump for the same reason. Instead of making America great again it has become as messy as before. Don't ever trust politicians. Correction Trump wasn't a politician but a conman disguised as a politician. Hillary is a cunt disguised as a politician.