Bill Blain: "Macron Will Prove A Disappointment As Nothing Is Actually Fixed In Europe"

Tyler Durden's picture

From Bill Blain’s latest Morning Porridge edition

“To summarise the summary: anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job..”

The best thing about the French Election is I've just won a case of very fine French wine on the result! 

The papers and financial blogosphere are full of positivity – France is fixed, therefore the Euro is safe and its all great news. Put yer buying boots on.. And on the back of Friday’s very strong US numbers.. don’t worry that bonds continue to rally in the face of a likely Fed Hike..

Please.. the only thing good about the French vote is the least bad candidate won.

I question the grand expressions of upside the market is calling for. France has dodged a bullet, perhaps, but they aint solved the crisis – which boils to down to being the wrong economy using the wrong currency and absolutely no control of monetary or fiscal policy to fix it.

Macron has a head full of supply side policy cliches about sorting the labour market, and some catchy soundbites on Franco-German European hegemony – including the sacrifice of a fraction of the bloated state payroll. For all the hype, he’s a compromise of compromise candidates.

Lets not forget that fully 12% of the votes were spoilt – meaning a significant minority of Frenchmen made a conscious choice that neither candidate was any good!

I’ll make a grand prediction: Macron will prove a disappointment. His lack of power base from which to actually effect long term change across France means we'll get one or other of the Le Pens in 5 years time.

Although he will no doubt trade on his youth and popularity – don’t be surprised if the lustre quickly fades. A number of blogs say he’ll quickly build a coalition of the willing.. I doubt it. He's going to struggle to form any kind of working government in the face of the established parties, and hostility from right and left.

There is also the likelihood the electorate will come to realise the gifted young game-changer is actually as establishment as they come. Don’t forget he is the protégé of Jacques Attali -  those of us of a certain vintage will remember Attali as the archetypal enarch - squandering billions on titivating the Glistening Bank (The EBRD) with marble lifts and ego-building offices rather than actually lending. Macron’s paid up membership of the discredited French upper class is something a better organised Front Nationale will play to in coming years.

On the upside, the numbers are moving in Macron’s direction. The state isn’t in the same perilous debt position pre ECB intervention. A wee bit inflation will massage the numbers nicely. There are no immediate risks on the horizon. Unemployment is trending down (slowly), and is likely to boost his popularity. Merkel looks a shoe in for the German Election (very strong showing at the weekend in Danish Germany). 

But, but and but again..

When Europe looks calm and sorted, its not. Nothing is actually fixed.. For all the happy posts this morning about Euro strength, which stocks to buy on the basis of French recovery, and the rest… I doubt it.

Although there is apparently nothing to worry about in Euroland anymore – we’ve still got the festering pustule that is Italy, episode 47 of the Greek Crisis on our doorsteps, and the who knows what coming from the Brexit negotiations. Europe will continue to amuse, fascinate and frustrate..

I don't normally spend my Sundays watching the TV wallpaper paste that passes as "political comment" but as I supped my coffee, one soundbite caught my ear: "the aim of Europe is to ensure the economic collapse of the UK to make clear leaving the EU is never an option."

Oh dear....

Is there a danger the now pointless UKIP decides to establish some convoluted relevance as the force of anti-Europeanism? Sure enough, someone later suggested we should mount a European boycott. If we stop buying French plonk, German cars, Spanish holidays, etc, then that'll teach 'em.

It so happens an American chum of mine was in Yoorp over the weekend and he popped down for dinner last night. As he is an economist of some renown, and a former Scotsman before he went all Yankee on us, I asked his opinion on Brexit and what America thinks. He was succinct: “We don’t give a fig. As long as you all play nice and don’t break the global economy meaning we’ll have to bail it out, we really don’t care about Europe and the UK.” Nice.. but to the point..

A trade war with Europe and the nihilistic post UKIP politics of aggression would be a very bad idea... If I can’t get good European wine, it will inevitably mean drinking more Argentine Malbec.. Not a bad wine, but it’s impossible to function properly afterward!

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Panic Mode's picture

FFS, tells me something I dunno. Stop making yourself sound like some political yin yang.

Haus-Targaryen's picture

FN wins by a landslide in 2022. 

NoDebt's picture

"It so happens an American chum of mine was in Yoorp over the weekend and he popped down for dinner last night. As he is an economist of some renown.... “We don’t give a fig. As long as you all play nice and don’t break the global economy meaning we’ll have to bail it out, we really don’t care about Europe and the UK.” Nice.. but to the point.."

OK, that was me.  Or my twin brother.

 

GUS100CORRINA's picture

Bill Blain: "Macron Will Prove A Disappointment As Nothing Is Actually Fixed In Europe"

My response: I agree completely because the market response to Macron victory was one big "YAWN". Nothing happening with this news. Time to move on to next item.

JRobby's picture

"They" don't want anything fixed.

"They" practically have it all or are very close to it.

Let the Muzzy's maraud,  just keep them away from our castles.

SolidAssets's picture

she was a waitress in a cocktail bar now she owns a jet... http://bit.ly/2jdTzrM

Déjà view's picture

Chirac...Sarkozy...little reform...
Macron....as French say...More Things Change...More They Stay The Same...

mtl4's picture

Euro should recieve another little bounce from this percieved victory but EU is in for a very hard landing when all starts to unravel.

JRobby's picture

Sarkozy>>>>>>Clearstream Affair>>>>>>>>>>

"In the next diagram students, the right pointing arrows are places where dots would be conne....."(BLAM!!! shots ring out)

AttilaTheGun's picture

Nah. Knowing France it'll probably be Melenchon. That country is doomed.

VD's picture

"the only thing good about the French vote is the least bad candidate won." = idiot writing this drivel.

Internet-is-Beast's picture

Evidently for this presumably very rich and comfortable dude the only issue in this election was the economy.

nmewn's picture

So the French, enraged into a teeth clenching, clothes rending, pique of frustration with the moribund economic & social status quo they find themselves has elected...a bureaucrat of the outgoing Hollande administration who's only real claim to fame seems to have been, that he's a more Caucasian version of ObaMao, an ally of the Rothchilds and he ran (as the aforementioned bureaucrat) something called the Ministry of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs under Hollande for a year and a half...lol.

Seems like a perfect fit to escort the decline of France into its terminal phase to me ;-)

NoDebt's picture

Yep.  Beating expectations ALL the way down.

 

Internet-is-Beast's picture

Can't disagree, but it seems like the big issue isn't the decline of a country. It's more a symptom of the rotting away (Ausröttung in German) of democracies in general which have become DINOS--ie, coopted kleptocracies. Or DINOSaurs...

nmewn's picture

Democracies always rot from within,  that's why there are Republics as the alternative. 

If they (or we) can keep them of course  ;-)

BarkingCat's picture

We cannot. They face the same internal rot.

Best form of government is a benevolent dictatorship.

south40_dreams's picture

France is totally fucked!

dobermangang's picture

The refugees are invaders.  

Italian TV reporter rescued by taxi driver after getting attacked by refugees in Rome...

http://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2017/05/07/watch-italian-tv-reporter-rescu...

 

Mr 9x19's picture

sceptics give him 4 months.

he will be  boohed  in the street within a year.

 simple fact :

lepen 34% pure pro vote.

macron : 65% but only half for him so 33%, the other half was just because by education they do not vote at any cost for alt right.

 

en résumé : 34% voted for le pen , 33 for macron,  in reality, in country is FN. get used to it, in 5 years the amount will by way above 40%...

 

JRobby's picture

"Education" 

(Laugh Track Deafening.!!!)

squid's picture

"The least bad candidate won?"

 

Dunno about that.

 

Squid

jamesmmu's picture
We’ve Just Witnessed What Can Happen When the Globalists Work Together

http://investmentwatchblog.com/weve-just-witnessed-what-can-happen-when-...

Internet-is-Beast's picture

A new form of political manipulation is responsible for Macron's victory. That is to run sombody against him that the majority of voters will reject. In the US they were probably banking on people rejecting Trump. But it could be they actually wanted him elected and used Hillary as the sheepdog that herded people into voting for Trump. Same thing with Obama vs Romney. Romney was this odious character who despoiled companies, whereas Obama had no encumbering political past to criticize, his first term having been rather anodine, similar to Macron, who has had zero political past. (Similar to Trump as well.) They are both young "pretty boys" who appeal to youth and to women, both of whom tend to vote their emotions. In Macron's case Le Pen, with her FN past abhored by the French, was the sheepdog herding voters into voting for him. So Le Pen was really Macron's number one asset. Should have seen this when they took out Fillon, who was also going to address the immigration issue. As a much more centrist candidate, he probably would have easily defeated Macron.

Ah, those elites, they are always two steps ahead of us hapless plebs! They must be really laughing now! It helps to have a dumbed down population, but that was what the 60's were about. Congratulations, illuminati members!

Singelguy's picture

The elites may be two steps ahead but because of their greed, they have totally screwed everything up, and it will eventually get to the point where they can no longer hide it or paper it over and it will bite them in the ass.

Internet-is-Beast's picture

In 500 years? When have they not known success?

jet20's picture

What about Macron's Rothschild past?

As the full French surrender proves, "Nazi" past seems to beat bankster past any day, at least in European minds...

Internet-is-Beast's picture

I think it is more a question of the French having an allergic reaction to an FN candidate than surrender, as so many claim. They have a huge heritage of bearing guilt for their cooperation with Hitler in Vichy France and they want to distance themselves from any possible association with fascism. Look what having had Hitler has done to Germany's self-image. It is similar to how Americans feel guilty about slavery, which is partly why Obama got two terms.

Macron seems to be an empty suit who just does as he is told. At age 39, how could he be much else? It is absurd the way candidates like him, who are thrust on the scene all of a sudden and out of the blue, with at best a very indistinct past--like Obama who was possibly not even an American--manage to get elected to the highest office of the land. At the very least, Trump did have a past and was more or less a known quantity, even though he had never held office. Macron is someone you find out about *after* he becomes president. Clearly, the whole thing is a manipulation and a ruse, at least judging from American experience. How could voters not view this as a red flag? It is almost as if being president is just another thing to put on your resumé, like being the Pope for Bergoglio.

These are Edward Bernays presidencies.

EasternPoV's picture

He who owns the printing machine set the rules. Welcome to Utopia.

HooRAY4rSIDE's picture

I think you left out a J when you spelled Utopia

44magnum's picture

A senior Rabbi, Ovadia Yosefs is quoted in the Jerusalem Post as saying that all non-Jews (gentiles) are put on earth to be slaves of the Jew

That seems to be the cohensensus.

HooRAY4rSIDE's picture

Clearly ~ Counterfeitting money wasn't their first foray into using the printing press (nor will it be the last)

 

 

Israel takes steps to define itself as Jewish state, demote status of Arabic language

Los Angeles Times (5/7/17)

 

 

TEL AVIV, Israel — Ministers in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government on Sunday endorsed a controversial bill to enshrine Israel's character as a Jewish state despite criticism that it would leave the country's one-fifth Arab minority as second-class citizens.

Among other things, the bill downgrades Arabic from its current status as an official language of the state to that of "special" language to make government services accessible to the country's Arab citizens.

Entitled "Israel — The Nation-State of the Jewish People," the bill declares that "the right to realize national self-determination in the state of Israel is unique to the Jewish people."

 

--

Get ready to laugh your ass off again when out resident genius SMG, comes on here and tries reminds you that they're "not jews", they're Satanic Globalist Luciferian Oligarchs.

 

& for you Rosetta Stoners out there, if you're traveling to Israel, no need to learn Arabic, or Hebrew... But you will need to learn to speak Satanic Globalist Luciferian Olicarch (but you'll probably get by if you just wave a bunch of fiat sheckels around).

 

kw2012's picture

Well,the Muslim's have something to say about that because ALL Muslim's believe that all Jews, Christians, atheists, Buddhists, Hindus etc... All are to be conquered, taxed and preferable eliminated all together via genocide.

Ghordius's picture

"...one soundbite caught my ear: "the aim of Europe is to ensure the economic collapse of the UK to make clear leaving the EU is never an option."   Oh dear.... "     indeed

NoDebt's picture

"Nobody gets out of the EU alive."

-NoDebt

Quote circa 2015

Caleb Abell's picture

It's sort of a roach motel.

UncleChopChop's picture

i dont know who bill blain is, but anyone who explicity or implicity refers to macron as his 'own person' and not the deep state stooge he is is either clueless, or engaged in psyops.

toocrazy2yoo's picture

But they picked such an odd guy..Why?

Fake Trump's picture

Because he is having a young wife. Good balance.

UncleChopChop's picture

they pick people who are easy to blackmail and control. abberant/deviant tendencies (sexual and otherwise taboo) are perfect for that, right? 

LA_Goldbug's picture

"anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President "

Come on now. NECRON DIDN'T get himself elected !!!!

Chupacabra-322's picture

Still a Pure Evil Criminal US / NATO ZioNeoConFascist Vassel State.

These Destabilized, "Sovereign" countries are nothing more than Globalist Controlled US Hedgemony Outposts for the Elite.

tnorth's picture

at least this article is a bit more readable than that last gobshite, 'London Bridge is Down', I read five minutes ago

Magooo's picture

GRANNY FUCKER