Household Spending Growth Expectations Crash To Cycle Lows

Tyler Durden's picture

Despite record high stock prices, soaring consumer sentiment measures, and the constant Fed-spun narrative that incomes will rise amid 'full-employment', the latest survey of Americans by The New York Fed signals hope is collapsing for a spending renaissance...

Median household spending growth expectations tumbled from 3.29% in March to 2.58% in April, lowest level in data going back to June 2013..


Still, as long as NFLX, AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG are rallying, this is nothing to worry about, right?

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NoDebt's picture

Niggas be broke, bitchez.  The white niggas, the black niggas, the latino niggas.... all dem broke.  All dem.



SubjectivObject's picture

The correlation is obsolete except for any credulous proles.

The people that own the stocks don't need to spend, and the people who don't own the stocks can't spend.

There's an implied polarization of wealth in there somewhere.

Vlad the Inhaler's picture

Take out a HELOC and put it all on $FB, when Zuckerberg becomes President by controlling all news and choosing Oprah as his VP, and then issues an executive order making it illegal to short FANG stocks, it will go to the moon!

Davidduke2000's picture

Ebay is the best way to gauge, as the product you are selling is exposed to the world at least Canada and the US that's almost 360 million people.

unfortunatelynothing is selling on Ebay unless it is given away and the seller is ready to lose money.

what is selling is anything coming from China, brand new and very cheap and zero for shipping, but if you have a fur coat , a jacket, a unique tool or an antiquity there is no chance in hell to sell it because there are no buyers as Ebay stats will show you how many people visited your article and how many people are watching it.

With malls closing by the hundreds, Ebay sales are stagnant and sellers are losing money simply to get rid of some items , the signs for a world depression are here and very soon we will see massive layoffs as for now corporations are firing small groups at a time to times a year, but comes a time when they need to fire 1000 or 3000 people especially in the media business then the media would wake up and start screaming. 

When searching on ebay click on completed items, you will see 1 in 10 is sold or maybe less. 

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

Maybe we need some helicopter money


NoDebt's picture

@David-  You may have something with that observation.  I sell lawn mowers/tractors on Craigslist- probably one or two a year.  They find their way to me broken and free.  I fix them and sell them if I don't have friends/family who what it.  I got a riding mower up now that's probably only 5 years old, 24 horse twin cylinder, 48" deck, hydrostatic drive.  Thing is damned near perfect and I can't get even a nibble on it for $550.  That's insane when a new one of these (largely identical) would run you $1700-1800 new at your local Lowes or Home Depot.


Davidduke2000's picture

I am a retired pilot and crash investigator, I get requests from friends for a price on items to sell so I visit Ebay almost everyday to gauge the prices and yes even for rare parts prices are crashing from lack of clients, in the industry you have also the government papers to fill to avoid that the technology is transferred to China yet the Chinese spies are even in the white house.

I check other items like you said tractors or machinery and no luck not a single completed item and if there is any , it is given away for quarter of the price.

Consuelo's picture



 I'll give you a bit of my 'anecdotal evidence' reagarding current Ebay (Trump reflation trade to be more specific) conditions, since I have been using the site for business purposes since Pierre got the venue off the ground, circa 1998:


There has been a noticeable uptick in prices paid for certain computer-related commodities for both business and personal use, since the election results in November.   I attribute this to 'positive sentiment' in both the business and private sector.    And yes - you are correct, Ebay is (one) of a few fairly accurate 'real-time' barometers of sentiment for $spending - in both directions, depending on what first-tier economic sectors are flourishing.   In my case, Bay Area hi-tech (social media, cloud services, etc.), are providing the $grist at present.  

However, 'this too shall pass'...

Bam_Man's picture

But somehow, the people trying (unsuccessfully) to sell these items through an eBay business/store are considered to be "employed".

Bemused Observer's picture

It isn't just Ebay, it is also the one-two punch with the shipping. Lost, mangled packages, and the seller loses money when the PO refuses to honor their insurance terms. On top of that, the prices for small to medium sized packages has become ridiculous. Unless you are selling high-ticket items (which makes you a target for scammers, btw..) you get killed on shipping, or the customer gets pissed if you try to pass it on and dings your feedback, which decreases the 'eyes' on your future sales.

Ebay is no longer a place where a housewife can make some spending money selling a few yard sale finds. Now they expect you to be an aggressive, cost-cutting listing machine, everything is geared towards the volume seller. And the micro-management of the payment aspect creates a situation where that small seller who does try to play can be completely wiped out when one transaction goes badly. Getting your accounts straightened out can be a nightmare, and your listings fall further and further down the queue to where your listings only appear on the first three pages for a brief 2 minute period at 2:47 am EST on Tuesdays.


If you do manage to make it past the gauntlet and actually SELL something, the Post Office will then take over your screwing in a very smooth hand-off that starts with the purchase of any needed insurance over 50 dollars. You can insure anything, for any amount of money, no problem. How can they do it, you ask? By NOT PAYING on the claims, that's how! They don't care because they know they probably won't be paying anyway, so yeah, go ahead, put whatever numbers you want in there and pay the fee. Even if the package completely disappears while in their custody, they will claim they are not liable.


If, after all this, the package DOES somehow get delivered, the customer will email you about how it is actually 12 1/4 inches wide, and not 12 3/8ths as you stated...and it's a THROW PILLOW or a QUILT, not a precision instrument!...or complain that the 'forest green' shade you described was actually more of a 'piney green', and demand a partial refund after threatening your feedback. The pettiness of people will never fail to astound you, and over 20-30 dollars, or even less. The venue attracts exactly the type of 'customer' one would expect, and while a large enterprise can absorb those kinds of losses, making it up on volume, the small seller cannot. One or two of these parasites can end your selling career on a dime.

Like everything else, what was once great, and started with such promise, has become shit once the business and finance community got hold of it.

apike3137's picture

wait...I thought the economy was IMPROVING 'already' under 45..

Yen Cross's picture

   It's only going to get worse with that yuge increase in personal credit spending, and all the student\ subprime auto debt on the books.

sudzee's picture

i'm enjoying near empty malls, everything must go sales at closing stores, great sales promotions in grocery stores and no lineups to check out. Higher interest rates should only make things that much better. 

Consuelo's picture




"Still, as long as NFLX, AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG are rallying, this is nothing to worry about, right?"


Pink-slip Fridays at the names above, and you'll know the shit is real - and not a moment sooner.

GestaltNine's picture

Rich people are tightwads so the idea that giving them tax breaks or more money is going to help anyone is a big joke 

Trump needs to send every man, woman, and child a check for $50,000 and he needs to have done it yesterday, the money will come from a temporary tariff

bam! problem solved

aliens is here's picture

Why spend money when I know if I go broke by over spending no one is there to bail me out. I am holding on to every single dollar and only spend on food and stuff I really need. Retailers go F yourself.

Bemused Observer's picture

A 'spending Renaissance'? STFU...What exactly would they be spending?


Where is the money going to come from for any kind of recovery? Show me where the unspent funds are for this spending comeback...In the REAL world, money has to come from somewhere, unlike our banks and politicians, we can't just print up our own. Do you know how stupid you sound when you just start running your mouths about shit that everyone knows is not true, and not even possible? You aren't even preaching to the choir anymore, even they gave up and went home.


Absent any source for this funding, like job and wage growth, or any destruction of the debt overhang that is sucking up a lot of potential spending money, there is no place for the money to come from. So the prediction sounds as foolish as it IS. And it's getting a bit old, stale, and is starting to piss me off now. Like a bad joke that goes on too just end it son, cause it ain't getting any funnier.


We need a Renaissance in common sense. And people who continue to spout utter (and insulting) nonsense need to be held up to public scorn, have their noses rubbed into the relevant facts, and have their positions shredded thoroughly. And then be pelted with eggs and surplus produce.


We need to bring that back, btw. There is nothing as satisfying, or works as quickly to break the spell some fuckwit tries to cast with clever words as getting lobbed in the kisser with something wet and messy thrown from the crowd. For a while, there was that pie-guy, he nailed a couple on camera in his day.

Countrybunkererd's picture

Removing the bots, this site has a massive collective knowledge base.  We all learn from it and we all, or most of us, see the truth.  Can money be made now, of course it can, but the reality of the shit hoagie is that it cannot last.  Eventually people will not be willing to pay 4K a year for their portable internet connections to send pictures of their latest meal to their "friend network".  We should have taken some pain in 2008 but we didn't or rather were forced not to.  Now the demand has been pulled out of the "show" and we are left with a much much much worse situation.  A true nightmare scenario, a worst case one.  Hopefully the pressure is released slowly not BLEVE style, but i have doubts the CB's can do it.

Countrybunkererd's picture

Wow, did i turn into a alt right J Howard K?  Should i write a book and bitch against all things from now on?  It is also worth noting that you should view BLEVE's in tanker cars and whatnot.  I saw a BLEVE rocket a tanker car over 1/2 a mile.

moonmac's picture

Why spend money when you just feel ripped off afterwards? The Fed can keep creating artificial inflation but they have no control when we finally say enough is enough I’m so done getting scammed!




gregga777's picture

American business schools teach future CONporate leaders the fine art of bribing the political parasites, looting their CONporate employers and scamming the peasants. What could possibly go wrong?

virgilcaine's picture

An economy basedon debt and consumerism. Not the most sound policy.


Hugh G. Rection's picture

Living frugal, saving money, paying off debt. My girlfriend went back to her ex-husband, partly because he makes a lot of money and I have a lot of debt. I don't blame her, I'm not in a position to take on a woman.

Know what? My finances are the best they've been since when I met her a year ago, I quit alcohol and coffee and go to the gym every morning before work. I eat bananas and protein powder, and haven't been to a restaraunt to spend $50-$100 for a meal for two. 

I am paying off debt and have a 33" waist, I may have to spend on some new pants lol!

gregga777's picture

"…e constant Fed-spun narrative that incomes will rise amid 'full-employment'…"

Full employment? 96 million working age Americans NOT employed and ~45 million Americans on food stamps. And these Intellectual Yet Idiot classes ruling morons marvel at how they aren't trusted.