'Soft' Data Slumps - Empire Fed Plunges Into Contraction As New Orders Collapse

Tyler Durden's picture

Having surged to its highest since Oct 2014 early in the year on the back of Trumptopian exuberance, Empire Fed's manufacturing survey crashed back to -1.0 in May

4 standard deviations below expectations.


This is the worst (and first) contractionary print since October 2016 as New Orders crash from 7-year highs to 7-month lows.


Prices paid and received both fell (deflationary threat from China), inventories shrank (bad for GDP), average workweek and number of employees dropped (not making America great again), and future capex expectations plunged to 7 month lows.

All in all - a perfect reflection of the death of animal spirits and why paying attention to the the spikes in these surveys - while ignoring 'hard' data - is a fool's errand.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
headfake's picture

dats bullish right...

Rich Stoehner's picture

Major bullish, the shit is going to the moon!

_RRR_'s picture

no orders, it can only get better

InsaneBane's picture

Well the emperor has no close

Yuri Bezmenov's picture

"October 2016 as New Orders crash from 7-year highs to 7-month lows."

Lucky number 7 or not..

securitized-debt's picture

she was a waitress in a cocktail bar now she owns a jet... http://bit.ly/2jdTzrM

FreeShitter's picture

Gonna need some more tweets, folks.

_RRR_'s picture

maybe he's reading ZH and has just told his staff to write some new lines for massive impact

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

he does't have a thick enough skin to come round these parts

BigFatUglyBubble's picture

"I'm givin her all she's got cap'n, we need more biglys!"

Yen Cross's picture

 The GAP keeps getting wider.

LawsofPhysics's picture

You guys realize that most of the "modern traders" will have no idea what you are talking about...


"Mark to fantasy" forever!!!

What could possibly go wrong...

Now, "fuck you, pay me!"

Yen Cross's picture

non -GAAP?

 Q-1 results were tainted from the election, and they're still shitty when you look at market breadth. [-50/+50]

Stormtrooper's picture

Let's all chip in to buy Tylers a spell checker.  Proper spelling would enhance the "experience"(especially in the title of the articles).

I am Jobe's picture

Drove by a large mall isn San Antonio on Saturday ardound 1pm and wow, nada zilch hand full of cars . I think mostly employees. Consumers are tapped out. Even the theme parks might have to scale back this summer. 

Give Me Some Truth's picture

Drive around San Antonio and count the number of "pay day loan," "title loan," and "Easy Cash" type businesses. There's 10 on a block or three-quartersof-a-mile stretch of road in some sections of my town. No exageration. I've counted them.  I'd count the "Commercial space for lease" signs but this exercise might make me car sick.

Silver Savior's picture

Quick cash stores are all the rage right now! Tobacco and booze shops seem to be doing well too. These are like the only bright spots. Even the bars around here are having fewer customers. I go in there and even on Friday and Saturday nights the bartender, bouncers, dj and I may be the only ones there. The owner wants to keep them employed but damn. Things are getting so bad!

Argenta's picture

The fiat endgame.  Look, take this as warning shot #762 that you'd better get out of cash-denominated assets.  I know there's a lot of bitcoin fanboys on this site (me included, sort of) but this latest ransomware hack should be another warning shot that bitcoin might not be the best option, either.


Silver Savior's picture

I have been investing in this stuff. That's what hardware wallets are for. Yeah it costs $80 but in the long run it should pay for itself easily. I think crypto is an easy escape from the monetary system we have. I am glad it is progressing. At first I was highly critical of it. 

lester1's picture

Raise those rates into data weakness Ole Yeller !!


Time to fuck President Trump!!

virgilcaine's picture

An econ indicator as bizarre as the state itself.


Yen Cross's picture

  If I were a betting "guy", which I'm "NOT" , I'd see some $usd strength coming down the pike.

 It's not that right shoulder on the eur/usd, daily chart.

Give Me Some Truth's picture

Switzerland's national bank has the back of the U.S. Stock market. "Norway" - or is it "Belgium?" is taking care of the bond market.

Consuelo's picture



Isn't there a pill - or an App for this...?

sbenard's picture

Who needs an economy? We have PRINTED prosperity now! 

And if you think about it, we don't even need to PRINT money any more. Central criminals -- er, I mean BANKERS -- can create it digitally -- out of thin air! 

This is a calamity just waiting to happen! 

sbenard's picture

Buy the dip(wit). :{

Silver Savior's picture

What I am doing is either selling or donating extra stuff I don't need because when this all does go down I don't need a bunch of junk acting as a liability and pressing down on me like a weight. This way of thinking causes me to think twice about buying something and causes me to save more money.

Less is actually more. I want to get out of as many liabilities as possible and be free. 

Silver Savior's picture

Atleast my 401k provides loans so I can pay MYSELF back intrest. It's funny when I talked about this on CNBC. They all thought that was a horrible idea. So I should go to a fast cash store and pay them 300%? I guess they assume I can just go out and get a black card. lol. Gee thanks for thinking I have the means dipshits!