Banker: "One Million Will March On Washington If They Impeach Trump. They Will Be Armed"

Vince Lanci's picture

via Soren K Group and Marketslant

Because He's TNT

Sometime contributor Bon Scott who happens to be not only a Trump supporter but more importantly a Constitutional expert and Big  "L" Libertarian had this to say in response the 'Impeach Trump' escalation.

10,000,000 people will march on Washington if they try to impeach Trump... they will be heavily armed. I will be one of them. No kidding

While our colleague seems given to hyperbole consider this. Last year as early as February he said:

"Trump can win. Ignore the polls. Polls are meaningless in an election with so many “shock events”. The truth is Donald Trump can win the election in a landslide. 

That was true. We quoted him in our October 2016 post HERE

SKG contributor Vince Lanci echoed Bon's words in this Aug post:

On the flip side Trump fans should be happy.  If past calls are any indication Trump will indeed win in  landslide..

Bon also said in our July Post

Trump will spend like a drunken sailor

That Story HERE

This is also true in Trumps's attempts if not in execution yet. 

 

Can you argue With Bon?

The truth is, while our pseudonymous contributor is given to outrageously couched statements, he  has picked up  on something that is close to our hearts.  You can  see it in how polls are just wrong consistently. And to us that is explainable. The statistical world relies to heavily on  polls. Polls are merely "snapshots' of moments.

What is not revealed in polls is the subjectivity of the person being polled!. We know the bias of pollsters. But what has been ignored for years is subjective probability. That concept relates to trends when humans are involved.

Do you think people are going to be honest with pollsters anymore? No, they say what you want to hear so they can move on. Voting is very private. And people  are taking back that privacy. On a broader scale, subjective or conditional probability includes drifts or trends.  Nassim Taleb is a key proponent of this, and we count him  as a genius in  taking his options  knowledge and applying it to many fields in need of improvement. We also  enjoy his lambasting those dogmatists that do not get it.  Jim Rickards is another subscriber to Bayesian  theorems. 

 

What Is  Bayesian  Probability?

Simply put, is it a 50/50 chance the sun rises tomorrow? Statistically the answer is yes to an uneducated caveman seeing it for the first time. But how many times can that caveman stick with those stats when 5 years later the sun continues to rise?

Personal example: If it is 50/50 that a coin  lands on heads or tails, then how come I could at one time flip a coin and make it land on heads 10x in a row? Statisticians will say " Luck, law of large numbers will fix that". Sorry guys that is just not true.

Here is why. I practiced coin flipping at one point in my trading career to make it a skill. I measured how high it had to go, what side the coin had  to start on, and how hard I had to flip it. Was I cheating? No. What people see as randomness is actually a skill based event via intense practice. Had I let the coin land on the ground it would have been randomized. But I did not.

 

Pollsters Do Not Get it

This is the essence of the core ignorance of pollsters and statisticians. They ignore the human factor. And with that, they miss grass roots macro  trends like the populism that triggered Brexit. They do not see what our friend Bon does, that people are not numbers, and the more we rely on  models dogmatically,  the more likely we are to be surprised. Or as he would say : Dont be stupid! Trump is going to win in a landslide.

So while numbers are counted by Nate Silver, conditional/ subjectivity of the person polled is not factored in. This is the problem in modern  polling and stats. 

In trading we used to Fade brokers to protect ourselves from this. We were taught statistically that it is 50/50 every order is buy/sell. But when  a  broker came in everyday at the same time for 2 months straight and bought from us, that concept meant shit. We used to say:  Crap, how high do I have to make this price so he would not buy from us? And the answer was essentially NONE. That broker was a buyer and would continue to be one until he began unwinding  his position.

 

Option Traders Don't Get it

At the time I understood this as Bayesian probability and explained the rationale for "fading" markets to my boss and mentor. He disagreed. He did not get it. He was an extremely hard working savant who in the end became a bitter detractor despite my idol worship and his own immense  success. When you quit working for him, with only a couple exceptions, you were the enemy.  All this because the man, like the modern pollster could not grasp that whenever human behaviour is involved, probability has a subjective factor.

 

What are the Odds of a DC March if a Populist President is Impeached?

Can we afford to ignore "Bon", our colleague who is quite sane, does not represent the lunatic fringe, and is intimately aware that while Trump may not be a beltway darling, he has governed through populism.

Witness how Trump castrated the media with his "Fake News" press conference. He literally made people reject the MSM info as false and further likely turned people off to even looking at it. 

He effectively put them in a box where they could not sell their wares anymore.

This is no easy task. Winning elections via populism is easy game. But actually governing that way is not easy. We'd dare say,  it has not been done ever in a Republic.

So here we are. A populist-ly elected President who has thus far governed through populism. A president with a loyal following that is likely to not take an unconstitutional impeachment sitting down. Trump will not go quietly into the night. He will appeal to the public. He is a narcissist. And to his credit, narcissists are  all about winning popularity contests.

And against him are now the legal types who will use the Constitution to undermine it.

To Bon we joked:

"To get you and your pals to disburse, all we have to do is kill the wifi."

To which he responded:

That isn't enough. You may get some to go home with Beer bribes, but the core people mean business. They will not stand for this.

 

People vs. Elites

Do you want to bet against a DC march  if Trump is impeached? Do you want to be short Gold or long stocks if that happens?

A march would be an exponential increase in uncertainty. The people vs the Elites. And in the end with Elitist power at their disposal including manipulating the press, social media, revoking freedom of speech and rights to assemble and restricting gun ownership; it wont be enough. There will be the fallback to the use of force. People in power always lean on that when  needed. And while they may have learned marketing and manipulation tricks, at bottom, there is always metal hammer inside that velvet wrapper you see.  

 

People are fed up. Impeach  at Your Own Risk

We personally own 2 guns. A Benelli shotgun for skeet, and a 357 magnum for target range shooting. As believers in gun control laws for non law abiding citizens, we will not be inclined to subscribe to giving up what protects us from  a deep state that does what it wants and when it loses, changes the rules. This is the potential beginning of  the libertarian left and right People aligning against the authoritarian left and right Elitists

 

Impeachment Adds Uncertainty, Not Closure

So this will not end with impeachment. It will only stir more problems at grass roots levels. To tell 50% of the country that already distrusts its institutions that those  same institutions are collaborating to kill off their president may be a spark of revolt unlike anything seen  since the 1960s.

This is the cause that would unite libertarians, rednecks, NRA types, uneducated (but no less human and entitled to constitutional rights) and the silently suffering suburban middle class under one banner. People evolve at their own pace. Stop telling us what is best for us. That is not working out so well for you in the world. Don't do it here

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Forever Seeking's picture

The headline is wrong. Is that on purpose? A 1 with seven zeros is 10 million, not 1 million. 

So 10 million armed Deplorables will march on Washingon if they impeach Trump.

He is exactly right.

NuYawkFrankie's picture

A MAJOR problem with this article's "analysis" is that avoiding WW3 is the bare minimum requirement - the SINE QUA NON - of our continued existence; and inasmuch as Trump continues to ACTIVELY PUSH the NeoCON 'Global Conflagration' War Agenda -even delegating his Constitutional Duties, in this regard, to Pentagon Psycho-Thugs like McMaster & Mattis, and ACTIVELY PROMOTING known TERRORIST Organisations against duly-elected governments - Trump, himself is part of the "problem" - a MAJOR PART.

True, his impreachment MIGHT have a "galvanising and focussing effect", but - like a short fuse that sets off an explosion - that would LIKELY be his LAST contribution in the upcoming War Against the War-Mongers.

That is probably the best we can now expect of Trump - a man so apparently lacking in philosophical "grounding", gravitas & judgement

Underground's picture

Invest in Chickens, Rain Barrels and Seeds everything else is BS

Bwana's picture

I don't think any mention of a march on Washington D.C. should be discussed because it just may start a civil war. I see many very pissed off people who only need one more push. There are two factors that come to my mind.

First, the average Joe and Jill between 2008 and 2016 bought far more firearms and ammunition than any 8 year period in American history. Americans already own roughly 100,000,000 battle worthy rifles and the ammunition to feed them. About 60% of them are the WW-2 rifles from the US, England, Germany, Italy and Russia. These are all main battle rifles. Add to that all the intermediate caliber rifles such as the AK's and AR-15's and throw in about 10,000,000 high quality hunting rifles and you have the most heavily armed citizens in history. Most of them shoot reasonably well. Most of these firearms have been purchased for sporting or self defense use. The roughly 1,000,000 competition shooters present and former, shoot beyond the average persons belief. All of the people own their own transportation. However if only 3% of our population revolted that would constitute 10,000,000 as stated in the article.

Secondly on the other side of the equation are the deep state people and the great gaggle of traitors in Washington D.C. and state capitols. So many of these multi-millionaires have bought self contained compounds in New Zealand and Chili that both countries are considering restricting immigration. They, by their planned "get out of Dodge" mentality, admit their guilt. They know what they have done and how pissed the people really are. They have spent millions of dollars because they believe the odds of a revolution is beyond a possibility, it is a probability.They are prepared to run for their lives.

Gerald Celente has expressed many times "When people loose everything, they loose it." People see themselves unable to maintain their standard of living. They know they are slipping downward and are helpless to stop it because of the 1% backed by the news media establishing policies to benefit themselves at the expense of the 99%. Gerald Celente also postulated that our next revolution would be a "French" revolution. Or said another way, the people will eliminate the 1%.

The pieces are in place, the mood of both sides is apparent and if it starts the outcome will be the biggest bloodbath in the history of our country. Hate takes a long time dying and a lot of people have yet to put our Civil War behind them. Nobody and I mean nobody should trying to light the spark that sets this catastrophe off.

Redrum's picture

Well said.

If it needs to be done then it will happen.

The Earl of Crankcase's picture

Did your perchance notice that any time during the span of 2008-2016 when gun sales slumped one of the Beltway Bolsheviks went on national TV to promote some kind of new gun control measures or the banning of certain weapons? This was also the time when Obamas' picture was on the wall in every gun shop in the country as this year's "number one salesman". Do you really believe that the progressives/communists in Congress had no idea what the reaction would be when John Q heard the news?

When you understand how the reds roll you'll realize that unless the revolution produces ankle deep blood on every main street in America it has been a complete failure, even if they seize control of the government before the shooting starts. It's part of the reign of terror that heralds the arrival of the Marxist utopia.

They wanted people to load up on guns and ammo. You can't have a bloody civil war if everybody runs out of ammo the first week. In fact, I've made a wager that after the shooting starts you will hear rumors (that won't be rumors at all) of elements within the Federal government supplying weapons and ammo to the red side of the equation. Remember, you heard it here first.

There is nothing we can do to avert what's coming. This isn't what we want it's what they want and if you haven't been able to figure that out over the past eight years you haven't been paying attention. They want insurrection. They want the masses so terrified of anything and everything that they will beg for their chains.

Everybody will have to follow their own conscience. As for me, I don't intend to die on my knees beside a ditch and I sure as hell don't aim to die for lack of shooting back. I aim to give them what they want, good and hard! I strongly suggest that all you fellow patriots do the same. We can win this if we don't blink.

If you're a Vet just remember how much Uncle Sam invested getting you trained to kill. Well, it's like riding a bicycle...

Apeon's picture

'They know they are slipping downward and are helpless to stop it because of the 1%. . .'

 

Actually they would rather go for the gamble of eliminating the 1%, and then starting over, than to become the slaves the 1% want.  These are patient people, but 'free' people, and there is no amount $$$$$$$$ that will buy freedom.  It takes blood.

Bwana's picture

I don't think any mention of a march on Washington D.C. should be discussed because it just may start a civil war. I see many very pissed off people who only need one more push. There are two factors that come to my mind.

First, the average Joe and Jill between 2008 and 2016 bought far more firearms and ammunition than any 8 year period in American history. Americans already own roughly 100,000,000 battle worthy rifles and the ammunition to feed them. About 60% of them are the WW-2 rifles from the US, England, Germany, Italy and Russia. These are all main battle rifles. Add to that all the intermediate caliber rifles such as the AK's and AR-15's and throw in about 10,000,000 high quality hunting rifles and you have the most heavily armed citizens in history. Most of them shoot reasonably well. Most of these firearms have been purchased for sporting or self defense use. The roughly 1,000,000 competition shooters present and former, shoot beyond the average persons belief. All of the people own their own transportation. However if only 3% of our population revolted that would constitute 10,000,000 as stated in the article.

Secondly on the other side of the equation are the deep state people and the great gaggle of traitors in Washington D.C. and state capitols. So many of these multi-millionaires have bought self contained compounds in New Zealand and Chili that both countries are considering restricting immigration. They, by their planned "get out of Dodge" mentality, admit their guilt. They know what they have done and how pissed the people really are. They have spent millions of dollars because they believe the odds of a revolution is beyond a possibility, it is a probability.They are prepared to run for their lives.

Gerald Celente has expressed many times "When people loose everything, they loose it." People see themselves unable to maintain their standard of living. They know they are slipping downward and are helpless to stop it because of the 1% backed by the news media establishing policies to benefit themselves at the expense of the 99%. Gerald Celente also postulated that our next revolution would be a "French" revolution. Or said another way, the people will eliminate the 1%.

The pieces are in place, the mood of both sides is apparent and if it starts the outcome will be the biggest bloodbath in the history of our country. Hate takes a long time dying and a lot of people have yet to put our Civil War behind them. Nobody and I mean nobody should trying to light the spark that sets this catastrophe off.

SPQR 70AD's picture

gun owners are big mouth cowards and I dont care if they have a billion guns and a trillion rounds of ammo. they will surrender them to the cops they worship.it will go down in history the mosy heavily armed people in the world mostly white were genocided without firing a shot

Apeon's picture

Most of the Police, and most of the military will side with the people!

 

Your 'name calling' reveals you are one who would eliminate the 2nd amendment---so don't plan on being here after it is over.

bluskyes's picture

Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius.

chickadee's picture

It doesn't bother them that the entire CSA Army couldn't mount an effective attack on DC.

mathew913's picture

I would predict random assassinations of the establishment and liberals

TEATIME's picture

I don't think they will be so "random"

 

bjax's picture

I flipped a bitcoin .. still hasn't come down yet !

seataka's picture

“"If the people were to ever find out what we have done, we would be chased down the streets and lynched." -- George H. W. Bush, cited in the June, 1992 Sarah McClendon Newsletter”

“War is the greatest injustice. We are not fighting the culprits. Those who pay, who incite, who use the media to make people turn against each other – this is who we should fight against.” – Alexey Mozgovoy, commander of the “Ghost” brigade, killed May 23, 2015

http://outpost-of-freedom.com/Vortex.htm   The Vortex That Keeps us Apart, Gary Hunt at The Outpost of Freedom detailing Federal rabble rousers, agents and chicanery in the Liberty Movement.  Mr Hunt is currently being litigated by the Feds...after 30 years at this they want him to be silent, He could use some help.

"Treason or patriotism is only a matter of dates"  Alexandre Dumas

 

ultramaroon's picture

Your link didn't work. I got this:

Not Found

The requested document was not found on this server.

Web Server at committee.org

Then I noticed that there were two "space" characters after Vortex.htm. I removed the white space, refreshed the page, and the content loaded. You might want to edit your post.

Swamidon's picture

A lot of old combat vets "all in" with Trump.  They ain't gonna give up and most would be thankful for the opportunity to die with their boots on.

Kalashnikov545's picture

Better to die on your feet for something, than die in a convalescent home for nothing.

Jethro's picture

I'm all good with that. Valhalla when I die.

goose3's picture

The entire article summarized:  If it's not random, it's not random.  Author's confusing random events with bayesian events indicates a lack of understanding of what's going on.  Random models don't always work; when they don't, use a different model.

 

There.  Done.

Apeon's picture

 

Less effective than the one you criticize!

coast1's picture

SOmeone mentioned having thousands in many cities...I agree..Some of us cant fly across country, nor do I want to use united airlines...And for the comment from the cow shooter remark..Me and tens of thousands, if not a millions, put on our gear and train regularly..We have targets pop up out of nowhere, that another party sets up so I dont know where they are...We stay awake for 24 hours to get used to it. We can take apart an AK47 and clean it within minutes..If the need calls for it, a 30.06 at 200 yards, altho many can go 500 yards. side arms and an akle holster..  Kevlar vests etc.  The only thing we do with cows is eat them, and thats only if they are a local farmer wh grass feeds and no hormones.  Just sayin, lets get this going...We need to organize in as many cities as possible..The police will stand down, our military are all overseas, and the ones here, well, many wnt shoot Americns etc. The police will be overwhelmed etc.

atthelake's picture

Marching on DC is useless. They're ALL owned by the Rothschilds, Rockefellers, Soros, Kissinger, etc, etc. Why go after the peons when you should go after the owners?  THINK!

Bill Clinton said, "By the time you're president, someone else makes all the decisions."

Apeon's picture

 

YOu go after the ones who implement the orders, and then the Owners have no one to implement the orders, and do have a large collection of well armed Free People to get away from.

sheikurbootie's picture

I don't want to HAVE to do it, but I'm in. 

Maybe Trump will call for it?  Authorize a legal display of arms per 2nd Amendment? 

Nothing scares the life out of a liberal better than a gun. 

I see this as an assault on the Constitution by seditious liberals. 

 

caconhma's picture

Don't keep your hope too high. After all, Trump is just another zio-banking mafia puppet. Just ask it his GS owners!

Redrum's picture

If you want to manipulate the market whom would you hire?

DirtySanchez's picture

10 million armed US patriots, would likely include majority of law enforcement and military.

Only a dream, but imagine all the dead jews, politicians, banksters, and fake news spreaders.

I'd welcome 1000 blacks, Latinos, and Moozlims for every dead jew.

besnook's picture

one of my stats profs thought he would illustrate the 50/50 coin flip probability by having a class of 100 people flip coins and count the outcome. i thought it was stupid so i'd thought i'd illustrate that there would be outliers and said my coin flips came out to 60/40. six sigma is just as real as 50/50 but the one time it occurs the results would devastate any counterparties playing the 50/50 "certainty".

in the age of manipulated outcomes the chances of a six sigma event increase dramatically.

The Earl of Crankcase's picture

If you are a level headed, well trained, well armed patriot- you are the six sigma event.

The Gladiator's picture

You science geeks are missing the point. Hey! Look! Neil DeGrasse Tyson is on!

besnook's picture

you dumbasses live a dumbass life. he is talking about the possibility of six sigma events as possibilities that must be considered as the unintended consequence of actions that may or may not warrant them but are not considered(in contingency plans) in analysis because they are six sigma so when they happen they have no timely response.

Apeon's picture

 

What you said is like telling us the Sun rises in the East.  Not helpful, unless you are setting up a sundial.

stiler's picture

Impeachment is always bad for a nation. THat's why Oblabla was not; the stockmarket might have lost it. More and more everything is held up by less and less.

Expat's picture

10 million will march and 9 million will crawl home.  I chuckle at the quaint notion that a bunch of rednecks with shotguns whose sole combat experience is getting drunk and shooting cows think they can take on the military.  On the other hand, I chuckle less at the idea that so many people would even say they would rise up in armed rebellion to support someone like Donald Trump.  I understand the sentiment and support fighting the Deep State and restoring some more democracy, but rising up for Trump is bizarre.  Why not ask Goldman to fund your new Occupy Wall Street type movement  while you're at it.

Rise up.  But bear in mind we live in a democracy which functions because of checks and balances.  If both the House and Senate vote to impeach and then convict, no one can stop your private protest, but you are putting yourself soundly on the wrong side of the law and history.

Apeon's picture

 

"Expat"  did you find your safe place!

Underground's picture

I think you missed the point those stupid rednecks or so you label would make mence meat out of those pussy hat wearing skinny jean loving tranny's. Whatbare they going to throw lip gloss at them? They? can't even figure out which bathroom they belong in. So I got my money on the rednecks. Also Trump is well liked with X Military, Military and Cops. They will not fire on the citizens they are sworn to protect this country and her people from forces external and INTERNAL. Remember that the next time you hear about another "leak to the NYT from a deep state "unconstitutionaly" listing in without warrant on Americans citizens and their legally elected president. We have not lived in a democracy as the founders designed it since 911. If you want to get technical since Woody Wilsons time. And you can bet your sweet bottom the Military and Cops have this in the back of their minds as do the rest of Americans you call stupid. And someone like Trump is just who these people would defend. A populist. I know he has a ton of pressure from external forces from the media to forgein nationals with more money than god but all that money is not going to save them when the shtf and you fuck with an armed citizenry. This is perhaps the reason the Dems targeted Iraq vets with psd to take their right to bear arms and the rest? of us every time someone was killed with a gun. They could care less about lives... They wanted to even their chances of winning if it came down to it. And they are fucking scared of them. It's so obvious. Our founding fathers where extremely smart for giving us that right. History repeats and They could see into the future and knew it may come down to this one day. God bless America and all of you. Kiss your family tonight and be proud to live in the greatest country STILL on the face of the planet.

ky8's picture

Anyone need anymore proof of how stupid and easily mind controlled americans are, ya dude the trannys are meeting in a under ground cave as we speek conspiring to wage war.

The One...'s picture

(((EXPAT))) Your name says it all, you treasonous bastard. Don't forget the tens of millions of veterans who do have combat experience as well as access to both light and heavy weapons. These will train and organize the rest. You have better crawl into a very deep hole in whatever third world shithole you ran to, there are patriots wherever you are as well.  

Jethro's picture

Awww, you seem butthurt. Do you need a hug?

You are completely ignorant of the demographics involved here. I'm sure your Tory counterpart in the 1770's mirrored your sentiments exactly.

Mroex's picture

Okay, you're right, so that leaves 1,000,000 dedicated heavily armed people who are not cowards. They are pissed off and fed up and armed, please tell me what level of damage 1,000,000 armed people can do. Oh and don't hand me any shit about being droned they will not be stupid they know that already they will form small groups, they will constantly hit and run, no base to defend no territory to bomb and drone. Just what viet cong did, you know that war were we had all the superior weapons and technology, but still LOST. 

Your move

Apeon's picture

 

Well we lost because we had Johnson and McNamara

Jethro's picture

Look at what 1 armed assailant does to a town. Imagine 10 different ones, with different objectives and targets. Do you honestly think that LE could keep up and contain that? Then also consider that there is an extremely high percentage probability that is the LE will philosophically identify with the assailants if there is a reaction to quasi-communist/globalist coup to a sitting US President? All federal workers/liberal judges/bankers/liberal lawyers/liberal think tanks/etc will be on the menu. No amount of protective details will be able to protect their assets.

Kalashnikov545's picture

Who do you think has the combat experience in this country? It is us, the "rednecks" you speak of. So laugh it up, m0therfu€ker.

Dormouse's picture

Nobody shoots cows, idiot.

The United States is not and never has been a democracy, you fucking moron, it's a republic.

Impeachment is a purely political action, there is no conviction, it's not a legal matter, civil or criminal.

I hope you're one of the first uneducated traitors shot in the civil war you're endorsing.

P'Od_Accountant's picture

I'll believe it when I see it.  If 10 million armed people show up to protect this tyrant I'll know who to shoot first for putting this retard in office.