Banker: "One Million Will March On Washington If They Impeach Trump. They Will Be Armed"

Vince Lanci's picture

via Soren K Group and Marketslant

Because He's TNT

Sometime contributor Bon Scott who happens to be not only a Trump supporter but more importantly a Constitutional expert and Big  "L" Libertarian had this to say in response the 'Impeach Trump' escalation.

10,000,000 people will march on Washington if they try to impeach Trump... they will be heavily armed. I will be one of them. No kidding

While our colleague seems given to hyperbole consider this. Last year as early as February he said:

"Trump can win. Ignore the polls. Polls are meaningless in an election with so many “shock events”. The truth is Donald Trump can win the election in a landslide. 

That was true. We quoted him in our October 2016 post HERE

SKG contributor Vince Lanci echoed Bon's words in this Aug post:

On the flip side Trump fans should be happy.  If past calls are any indication Trump will indeed win in  landslide..

Bon also said in our July Post

Trump will spend like a drunken sailor

That Story HERE

This is also true in Trumps's attempts if not in execution yet. 

 

Can you argue With Bon?

The truth is, while our pseudonymous contributor is given to outrageously couched statements, he  has picked up  on something that is close to our hearts.  You can  see it in how polls are just wrong consistently. And to us that is explainable. The statistical world relies to heavily on  polls. Polls are merely "snapshots' of moments.

What is not revealed in polls is the subjectivity of the person being polled!. We know the bias of pollsters. But what has been ignored for years is subjective probability. That concept relates to trends when humans are involved.

Do you think people are going to be honest with pollsters anymore? No, they say what you want to hear so they can move on. Voting is very private. And people  are taking back that privacy. On a broader scale, subjective or conditional probability includes drifts or trends.  Nassim Taleb is a key proponent of this, and we count him  as a genius in  taking his options  knowledge and applying it to many fields in need of improvement. We also  enjoy his lambasting those dogmatists that do not get it.  Jim Rickards is another subscriber to Bayesian  theorems. 

 

What Is  Bayesian  Probability?

Simply put, is it a 50/50 chance the sun rises tomorrow? Statistically the answer is yes to an uneducated caveman seeing it for the first time. But how many times can that caveman stick with those stats when 5 years later the sun continues to rise?

Personal example: If it is 50/50 that a coin  lands on heads or tails, then how come I could at one time flip a coin and make it land on heads 10x in a row? Statisticians will say " Luck, law of large numbers will fix that". Sorry guys that is just not true.

Here is why. I practiced coin flipping at one point in my trading career to make it a skill. I measured how high it had to go, what side the coin had  to start on, and how hard I had to flip it. Was I cheating? No. What people see as randomness is actually a skill based event via intense practice. Had I let the coin land on the ground it would have been randomized. But I did not.

 

Pollsters Do Not Get it

This is the essence of the core ignorance of pollsters and statisticians. They ignore the human factor. And with that, they miss grass roots macro  trends like the populism that triggered Brexit. They do not see what our friend Bon does, that people are not numbers, and the more we rely on  models dogmatically,  the more likely we are to be surprised. Or as he would say : Dont be stupid! Trump is going to win in a landslide.

So while numbers are counted by Nate Silver, conditional/ subjectivity of the person polled is not factored in. This is the problem in modern  polling and stats. 

In trading we used to Fade brokers to protect ourselves from this. We were taught statistically that it is 50/50 every order is buy/sell. But when  a  broker came in everyday at the same time for 2 months straight and bought from us, that concept meant shit. We used to say:  Crap, how high do I have to make this price so he would not buy from us? And the answer was essentially NONE. That broker was a buyer and would continue to be one until he began unwinding  his position.

 

Option Traders Don't Get it

At the time I understood this as Bayesian probability and explained the rationale for "fading" markets to my boss and mentor. He disagreed. He did not get it. He was an extremely hard working savant who in the end became a bitter detractor despite my idol worship and his own immense  success. When you quit working for him, with only a couple exceptions, you were the enemy.  All this because the man, like the modern pollster could not grasp that whenever human behaviour is involved, probability has a subjective factor.

 

What are the Odds of a DC March if a Populist President is Impeached?

Can we afford to ignore "Bon", our colleague who is quite sane, does not represent the lunatic fringe, and is intimately aware that while Trump may not be a beltway darling, he has governed through populism.

Witness how Trump castrated the media with his "Fake News" press conference. He literally made people reject the MSM info as false and further likely turned people off to even looking at it. 

He effectively put them in a box where they could not sell their wares anymore.

This is no easy task. Winning elections via populism is easy game. But actually governing that way is not easy. We'd dare say,  it has not been done ever in a Republic.

So here we are. A populist-ly elected President who has thus far governed through populism. A president with a loyal following that is likely to not take an unconstitutional impeachment sitting down. Trump will not go quietly into the night. He will appeal to the public. He is a narcissist. And to his credit, narcissists are  all about winning popularity contests.

And against him are now the legal types who will use the Constitution to undermine it.

To Bon we joked:

"To get you and your pals to disburse, all we have to do is kill the wifi."

To which he responded:

That isn't enough. You may get some to go home with Beer bribes, but the core people mean business. They will not stand for this.

 

People vs. Elites

Do you want to bet against a DC march  if Trump is impeached? Do you want to be short Gold or long stocks if that happens?

A march would be an exponential increase in uncertainty. The people vs the Elites. And in the end with Elitist power at their disposal including manipulating the press, social media, revoking freedom of speech and rights to assemble and restricting gun ownership; it wont be enough. There will be the fallback to the use of force. People in power always lean on that when  needed. And while they may have learned marketing and manipulation tricks, at bottom, there is always metal hammer inside that velvet wrapper you see.  

 

People are fed up. Impeach  at Your Own Risk

We personally own 2 guns. A Benelli shotgun for skeet, and a 357 magnum for target range shooting. As believers in gun control laws for non law abiding citizens, we will not be inclined to subscribe to giving up what protects us from  a deep state that does what it wants and when it loses, changes the rules. This is the potential beginning of  the libertarian left and right People aligning against the authoritarian left and right Elitists

 

Impeachment Adds Uncertainty, Not Closure

So this will not end with impeachment. It will only stir more problems at grass roots levels. To tell 50% of the country that already distrusts its institutions that those  same institutions are collaborating to kill off their president may be a spark of revolt unlike anything seen  since the 1960s.

This is the cause that would unite libertarians, rednecks, NRA types, uneducated (but no less human and entitled to constitutional rights) and the silently suffering suburban middle class under one banner. People evolve at their own pace. Stop telling us what is best for us. That is not working out so well for you in the world. Don't do it here

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SgtShaftoe's picture

Again, look at Bundy Ranch. That came within a millimeter of going live. Don't lean on normalcy bias.

bogbeagle's picture

Brave guys ... but, recall that the whole of the US could muster fewer than 100 such men.

SgtShaftoe's picture

There were multiple hundreds of people there from what I saw on the Internet and the accounts from Oathkeepers that was there at the time. It seemed Bundy had too many people rather than not enough, with more on their way when it finally came to resolution.

STP's picture

Indeed, there were a lot of people there and they came from ALL OVER the United States and even the World!   Like the biker who rode 16 hours straight from San Francisco, pulling up next to my car, by the bridge at 2 AM, with just an old comforter strapped to his seat.  Or the retired couple, who flew from Austrailia!  They pulled up in a rental car at 7 AM, that same morning from Vegas.  And at 7:30, a gent on a Harley Road Glide, with a .45 strapped on his hip, pulled up from New Mexico.

The Aussie retired police chief, the Frisco Biker and the NM Harley dude and I, never met, never got a call, but we came, because deep down in our hearts, we heeded that call. Like the unemployed GM engineer from Michigan, the mule driver from the Sierra's and so many others.  We all came, because we had to go.  When you get that call, that's when you'll go and you'd better do it.  I was scared, my family was worried, but I went.  And y'all on the East Coast and the South, better do your thing too, we did!

Hikikomori's picture

Wonder if they'll get the Marines to oppose the marchers with machine guns and tanks, like they did the Bonus Marchers?

aliens is here's picture

Depends if they are Mexican Marines then all bets are off. 

Xena fobe's picture

Yes, of course they would.

EcoJoker's picture

 

Marines and Armies will quickly disperse when their families start being targeted.   

DrData02's picture

Well that, of course, is the key. Police goons too.

SgtShaftoe's picture

If they did that right now with the social mood as it is, not even the Marines would be enough. Though I think it was the Army that put down the Bonus Army protests but I could be wrong.

You'd very possibly if not likely have an instant war break-out nation-wide. Use the Bundy Ranch standoff as a case study and interpolate those results. The BLM had MILITARY (Delta if memory serves) snipers kitted up and set in the battlefield (violation of posse comitatus). The protest had fresh from the sandbox Marine Force Recon Snipers (one with over 100 confirmed kills) with a 338 Lapua pointing right back downrange in counter-sniper ops. You had top tier against top tier. If this goes kinetic, expect more of the same.

Don't expect this to play out like the last 20 years in the Middle East. The "enemy" there was a bunch of untrained idiots almost exclusively. Should violence break out here, the government's opponent would be just as sharp in many cases as their side, or better in some cases. The violence and speed of action would likely be absolutely terrifying. I shit you not.

Edited to add: If you haven't seen coordinated fires before, especially at night here's an example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYd6aqarHFg Though it's far more impressive in-person. It looks like a star wars battle scene with the tracers going everywhere.

Pray.

underthevolcano's picture

Won't make that mistake again. Those were the days when people believed they could change things peacefully. Proved to not be the case. I really doubt any army working for the elite would see flower children putting carnations in their rifle barrels. Too much water under the bridge for that.

SgtShaftoe's picture

If this ever goes kinetic look the fuck out! All it would take would be for the police to start opening up on an armed protest and you'll have mortars inbound, IEDs and very likely a lot of sniper missions going on for HVTs.

Pray people! Pray that it doesn't have to go there.

underthevolcano's picture

The street dudes in Chicago are already armed with armor piercing ammunition. Not a good sign.

Bytor325's picture

I can hit a pumpkin at 600 yds, my enemies will meltdown if their pumpkin spice lattes don't come with the correct amount of fat free leche..... im not worried

e_goldstein's picture

You are underestimating your enemies.

Stop. Doing. That.

 

konadog's picture

I'm not sure about 10M, but I think serious riots are likely if the corporate oligarchs and their fascist libtard sycophant helpers don't back down. The patriots have been willing to play fair and square thus far, but my guess is that a bogus impeachment circus would be the tipping point where the gloves would come off. Trump is the second thing standing in the way of a full corporate/deep-state takedown of the US. The elite ivy league inbreeds want an unelected world government run by bureaucrats exclusively for their enrichment. The US Constitution is a major impedement they want out of the way.  If the libtards and RINOs overthrow Trump for these f*ckers, then it would be clear that elections don't matter and many would assume that the 2nd Amendment was the final alternative to protect the Republic.

JOHNICON's picture

BS.  Our fellow citizens are sheeple.  The right is especially poorly organized.  If Trump is sucessfully impeached there may be protests but no civil war or armed insurrection.  This country was finished forty years ago.

Xena fobe's picture

Will march if hungry and nothing left to lose.  Or if fellow patriots are attacked.  But we are poorly organized.  And they would shut down social media. 

Wannabe_Oracle's picture

I have to disagree with you - we the people are FED up.

 

Hmm... Maybe this was the plan all along. Think about it for a minute. The MSM was so hell bent on bashing Trump from the minute he announced he was running. I often thought "why are they so openly destroying this man", I would expect the usual political hit pieces and smears, but this was extreme and so open, as if part of a dubious plan. Perhaps the PTB set this all up to foment massive civil war 'given our current broken and unfixable financial system'. I had no intentions on voting for Trump early on, but after some time many subjects he campaigned on started to appeal to me -- term limits, real immigration reform, etc... Just a thought, I'll get back to my yard work now where I can find some time of solace away from a broken and crazy world.. ./

Farqued Up's picture

Then they are crazier than a shithouse rat. Any shooting wil certainly include dragging the elites out of their digs and giving them the Marie and King Louis treatment. They are fools if they think they can escape anywhere on this blue ball.

7thGenMO's picture

"We can always get half the poor to kill the other half." 

Mr. Scammerhorn to Boss Tweed - Gangs of New York

aliens is here's picture

You could be right good times breeds sheeples.

LawsofPhysics's picture

All wars are bankers wars!!!!

Fuck 'em!

Now,jump you fuckers!!!

DEMIZEN's picture

they wont show up when it will matter. maybe 30k of very angry ones. americans just dont show up when there is nothing in for them. when trump will be fucked beyond repair, they will go home, put a giant american flag on the trailer and shoot every tresspassing motherfucker without the exception, be from left or right.

. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

I remember the last march on Washington, lotsa' hype, but when came time, MSM cut to some puppy in a river or something and I had to watch it unfold on Twitter. Then it fizzled.

I don't think you really need another reason to march on Washington, because he won't be impeached.

But you should march, nonetheless.

Ms. Erable's picture

Simultaneous marches on the NYC, DC, Atlanta, Shitcongo, San Fagcisco and LA broadcast offices of NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX, MSNBC and other pond scum will get their attention - until they develop high-velocity terminal lead poisoning, that is.

. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

You mean like 'Occupy'?

Yeah that helped.

(Clever handle, btw!)

Schlump's picture

Please rise up and defend me and my Goldman Sachs appointees. Thanks

Duc888's picture

 

 

3 week old dick head.

buffalolips's picture

Good article. Probably worth paying attention to. With regard to polls, our author correctly states that "Polls are merely "snapshots' of moments." That's partially true but only half of the picture. What polls really are (and most people don't realize this) is a measure of the effectiveness of recent carefully orchestrated propaganda (intended to shape public opinion to a predetermined viewpoint). The media, in advancing their orchestrated agenda, first attempts to shape public opinion after which the media uses polls to measure their level of success, often day-by-day or week-by-week. Polls cannot be relied upon by a liberty-minded public that wants to be factually informed because the media will literally falsify the sampling and/or the poll results particularly when it diverges from the orchestrated agenda. Beware of polls! Too often polls are as fraudulent as fake news and should not be trusted. 

Paper Mache's picture

I've  lied to pollsters a few times. I've always felt a sense of achievement afterwards 

PGR88's picture

Kill the Federal Reserve

Unbacked money, massive debt, and manipulated interest rates means, in sum, the oligarchy and progressive government have unlimited resources, taken at everyone else's expense.

THERE IS NO WAY TO REFORM US POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT WITHOUT REFORMING THE US MONETARY SYSTEM FIRST.

madmax1965's picture

Boom, winner winner chicken dinner!  I have been saying that for years and typically people respond with the old deer in the headlights look.  Shit my last CPA insisted that the Federal Reserve was part of .gov, it was friggin insane!  Anyway, he is no longer my CPA!

Another major problem is that the sheeple still believe in the system and actually think dickheads like McCain give a shit about us proles!

 

7thGenMO's picture

Yes, a fraudulent money system allows control by a globalist oligarchy that own the banks to create money and buy politicians.  Government then enforces their control.

space junk's picture

I can see that happening.  I can see some very up front and personal confrontations.  Personally I will not stand for this shit. 

aliens is here's picture

I don't have guns but I will march into DC with my pitch forks.

. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

Tape a piece of cardboard on either side, write something on both, and hold it up high.

Then, when the moment is right...

aliens is here's picture

Good idea it won't give some rambo cop a reason to shoot me dead.

. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

"Better you than me." -Animal Mother

undertow1141's picture

Bring a few hundred feet of rope as well as that pitchfork, it will come in handy.

Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

"May you live in interesting times...."

 

Mandel Bot's picture

Not only do NRA members and other armed citizens outnumber the armed forces, who thinks that the army, navy and airforce will all fight on the side of the elites?

The bankers have painted themselves into a corner. They may have difficulty escaping alive.

East Indian's picture

Armed citizens won't be fighting the armed forces. They will be fighting the militarized police. 

And that is not very difficult.

undertow1141's picture

To be honest once this goes real, most LEO's will be with their families not in uniform.

decon's picture

"...to kill off their president may be a spark of revolt unlike anything seen  since the 1960s."

It would be more like the 1860's.