Banker: "One Million Will March On Washington If They Impeach Trump. They Will Be Armed"

Vince Lanci's picture

via Soren K Group and Marketslant

Because He's TNT

Sometime contributor Bon Scott who happens to be not only a Trump supporter but more importantly a Constitutional expert and Big  "L" Libertarian had this to say in response the 'Impeach Trump' escalation.

10,000,000 people will march on Washington if they try to impeach Trump... they will be heavily armed. I will be one of them. No kidding

While our colleague seems given to hyperbole consider this. Last year as early as February he said:

"Trump can win. Ignore the polls. Polls are meaningless in an election with so many “shock events”. The truth is Donald Trump can win the election in a landslide. 

That was true. We quoted him in our October 2016 post HERE

SKG contributor Vince Lanci echoed Bon's words in this Aug post:

On the flip side Trump fans should be happy.  If past calls are any indication Trump will indeed win in  landslide..

Bon also said in our July Post

Trump will spend like a drunken sailor

That Story HERE

This is also true in Trumps's attempts if not in execution yet. 

 

Can you argue With Bon?

The truth is, while our pseudonymous contributor is given to outrageously couched statements, he  has picked up  on something that is close to our hearts.  You can  see it in how polls are just wrong consistently. And to us that is explainable. The statistical world relies to heavily on  polls. Polls are merely "snapshots' of moments.

What is not revealed in polls is the subjectivity of the person being polled!. We know the bias of pollsters. But what has been ignored for years is subjective probability. That concept relates to trends when humans are involved.

Do you think people are going to be honest with pollsters anymore? No, they say what you want to hear so they can move on. Voting is very private. And people  are taking back that privacy. On a broader scale, subjective or conditional probability includes drifts or trends.  Nassim Taleb is a key proponent of this, and we count him  as a genius in  taking his options  knowledge and applying it to many fields in need of improvement. We also  enjoy his lambasting those dogmatists that do not get it.  Jim Rickards is another subscriber to Bayesian  theorems. 

 

What Is  Bayesian  Probability?

Simply put, is it a 50/50 chance the sun rises tomorrow? Statistically the answer is yes to an uneducated caveman seeing it for the first time. But how many times can that caveman stick with those stats when 5 years later the sun continues to rise?

Personal example: If it is 50/50 that a coin  lands on heads or tails, then how come I could at one time flip a coin and make it land on heads 10x in a row? Statisticians will say " Luck, law of large numbers will fix that". Sorry guys that is just not true.

Here is why. I practiced coin flipping at one point in my trading career to make it a skill. I measured how high it had to go, what side the coin had  to start on, and how hard I had to flip it. Was I cheating? No. What people see as randomness is actually a skill based event via intense practice. Had I let the coin land on the ground it would have been randomized. But I did not.

 

Pollsters Do Not Get it

This is the essence of the core ignorance of pollsters and statisticians. They ignore the human factor. And with that, they miss grass roots macro  trends like the populism that triggered Brexit. They do not see what our friend Bon does, that people are not numbers, and the more we rely on  models dogmatically,  the more likely we are to be surprised. Or as he would say : Dont be stupid! Trump is going to win in a landslide.

So while numbers are counted by Nate Silver, conditional/ subjectivity of the person polled is not factored in. This is the problem in modern  polling and stats. 

In trading we used to Fade brokers to protect ourselves from this. We were taught statistically that it is 50/50 every order is buy/sell. But when  a  broker came in everyday at the same time for 2 months straight and bought from us, that concept meant shit. We used to say:  Crap, how high do I have to make this price so he would not buy from us? And the answer was essentially NONE. That broker was a buyer and would continue to be one until he began unwinding  his position.

 

Option Traders Don't Get it

At the time I understood this as Bayesian probability and explained the rationale for "fading" markets to my boss and mentor. He disagreed. He did not get it. He was an extremely hard working savant who in the end became a bitter detractor despite my idol worship and his own immense  success. When you quit working for him, with only a couple exceptions, you were the enemy.  All this because the man, like the modern pollster could not grasp that whenever human behaviour is involved, probability has a subjective factor.

 

What are the Odds of a DC March if a Populist President is Impeached?

Can we afford to ignore "Bon", our colleague who is quite sane, does not represent the lunatic fringe, and is intimately aware that while Trump may not be a beltway darling, he has governed through populism.

Witness how Trump castrated the media with his "Fake News" press conference. He literally made people reject the MSM info as false and further likely turned people off to even looking at it. 

He effectively put them in a box where they could not sell their wares anymore.

This is no easy task. Winning elections via populism is easy game. But actually governing that way is not easy. We'd dare say,  it has not been done ever in a Republic.

So here we are. A populist-ly elected President who has thus far governed through populism. A president with a loyal following that is likely to not take an unconstitutional impeachment sitting down. Trump will not go quietly into the night. He will appeal to the public. He is a narcissist. And to his credit, narcissists are  all about winning popularity contests.

And against him are now the legal types who will use the Constitution to undermine it.

To Bon we joked:

"To get you and your pals to disburse, all we have to do is kill the wifi."

To which he responded:

That isn't enough. You may get some to go home with Beer bribes, but the core people mean business. They will not stand for this.

 

People vs. Elites

Do you want to bet against a DC march  if Trump is impeached? Do you want to be short Gold or long stocks if that happens?

A march would be an exponential increase in uncertainty. The people vs the Elites. And in the end with Elitist power at their disposal including manipulating the press, social media, revoking freedom of speech and rights to assemble and restricting gun ownership; it wont be enough. There will be the fallback to the use of force. People in power always lean on that when  needed. And while they may have learned marketing and manipulation tricks, at bottom, there is always metal hammer inside that velvet wrapper you see.  

 

People are fed up. Impeach  at Your Own Risk

We personally own 2 guns. A Benelli shotgun for skeet, and a 357 magnum for target range shooting. As believers in gun control laws for non law abiding citizens, we will not be inclined to subscribe to giving up what protects us from  a deep state that does what it wants and when it loses, changes the rules. This is the potential beginning of  the libertarian left and right People aligning against the authoritarian left and right Elitists

 

Impeachment Adds Uncertainty, Not Closure

So this will not end with impeachment. It will only stir more problems at grass roots levels. To tell 50% of the country that already distrusts its institutions that those  same institutions are collaborating to kill off their president may be a spark of revolt unlike anything seen  since the 1960s.

This is the cause that would unite libertarians, rednecks, NRA types, uneducated (but no less human and entitled to constitutional rights) and the silently suffering suburban middle class under one banner. People evolve at their own pace. Stop telling us what is best for us. That is not working out so well for you in the world. Don't do it here

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El Vaquero's picture

Because it will take an event to turn all of the pent up anger into action.  Go now, and you'll be a loan wolf nutjob. 

koan's picture

They should have done that long ago, I had a dream one night; 1 million people bringing their long rifles to DC, parking outside of congress and truly cleaning the swamp, placing an oath keeper into power and then cleaning out the banking system, Hollywood and every other source of misery and trash.

Once we are back on Constitutional rule elections can take place again, after you pass a test to show literacy and that you understand how the system works.

Pickleton's picture

"Once we are back on Constitutional rule elections can take place again, after you pass a test to show literacy and that you understand how the system works."

 

While we're dreaming.

 

Must also have skin in the game too.  You must be subject to actually paying taxes like everyone else.  No matter your color. Nobody on ANY KIND of dole can vote.  're too stupid to manage your own life, FUCK YOU, you don't get a say in mine.

 

Also, if you dont possess the legal right to vote for the candidate/Pol, you cannot give ANYTHING to that person.  Felony, 10 years in prison for subversion.

 

 

 

Pickleton's picture

"Once we are back on Constitutional rule elections can take place again, after you pass a test to show literacy and that you understand how the system works."

 

While we're dreaming.

 

Must also have skin in the game too.  You must be subject to actually paying taxes like everyone else.  No matter your color.

Also, if you dont possess the legal right to vote for the candidate/Pol, you cannot give ANYTHING to that person.  Felony, 10 years in prison for subversion.

 

 

 

truthseeker47's picture

Shakespeare said: "First we kill all the lawyers".  Add to that: "and all the banksters".

Tristan Ludlow's picture

They planned a march with full gear a couple of years ago.  I can't remember the name of the General leading the march, but most of the militia would not participate so it went bust.

 

Wonder if they will participate this time?

Winston Churchill's picture

The constitution has patently failed.

You would fight to reinstate a failure ?

I wouldn't , and neither should you.

East Indian's picture

The constitution has patently failed.

 

"...however good a Constitution may be, it is sure to turn out bad because those who are called to work it, happen to be a bad lot. However bad a Constitution may be, it may turn out to be good if those who are called to work it, happen to be a good lot."

 

dark fiber's picture

Could you explain how the Constitution has failed?  I can certainly see how Americans have failed(big time) but the Constitution? 

3LockBox's picture

Limey avatar preaching to Americans.

STFU

Xena fobe's picture

Must give them credit for most of our institutions and settling here.

Winston Churchill's picture

I'm not preaching, and I'm half American.

I am applying critical thinking, something sorely lacking around here lately.

Always question your premises. or continue to make the same mistakes forevever.

Bunghole's picture

Half American.

Does that mean your mother fucked a Bison?

undertow1141's picture

A half American is not an American at all.

IndyPat's picture

I'll try to give half a fuck, in that case.

Not enough American, by half.
Get back to me when you are all in.

shovelhead's picture

Lol.

I'm looking for the critical thinking part. Apparently you intended this to be a Where's Waldo exercise.

Sweet Cheeks's picture

The Constitution has NOT failed; it is all three branches that have operated unconstitutionally which have failed America.

HRClinton's picture

For the 3 Branches of Government to work properly, the Banks, Media and Public must do their part also.

When the Banks and Media fail to do their part, then the last part - the Foundation - is the Public itself.

If the Public gets comfy & cozy, dumb, fat and lazy, then the old adage comes full circle:

"A People deserve their leaders"

Put another way: "Both the problem and solution are staring at you in the mirror."

This is Judgement Day question for us all: "What did YOU do, that you could have and should have done, but didn't?"

The central planners's picture

Three braches working independently under the FED.

Winston Churchill's picture

Because the constitution was flawed from the start.There are/were no real sanctions to stop

the encroachment and disregard of it.The 600,000 dead in the civil war are mocking your failed constitution.

For such supposed wise men as the framers,they must have seen the flaws but passed it anyway, in secret by cabal ,and

not popular vote as was promised to the serfs.Lysander Spooner knew it was a failed document before the civil war.

You are pining for something that never was.The Framers knew exactly how that weak document would fail.

They were after all, the oligarchs of their day.

 

aliens is here's picture

Failed? Please expand on your logic.

undertow1141's picture

Ol' Winston there will tell you America proves Capitalism doesn't work either. He is a know nothing troll who likes the Leeches in Washington fucking him in the ass while he sits in the prison they give him.

El Vaquero's picture

It has not contained the size of the government.  We're being spied on by that very same government.  It failed to stop mission creep, basically.  I think it fails at this for a few reasons, one of which is low information voters.  It also fails to deal with Congress delegating its authority to create criminal laws, and has no mechanism to deal with the number of laws that keep on piling up on the books.  Another failure is that the Congresscritters get rich whether they do a good job for us or whether they fuck us over.  They have no skin in the game, so to speak, except for holding on to their position.  How many sociopaths do you think would run for office if they had to be put on trial at the end of every term with some of their 4th Amendment protections stripped away?  The only real teeth that the Constitution has pointed at those who would fleece us is the 2nd Amendment.  

undertow1141's picture

To quote Benjamin Franklin "A Republic, IF YOU CAN KEEP IT." The people were lulled to sleep with promises never meant to be kept. The people today are more red pilled than in any period since the last Civil War. The tree of Liberty is wilted, time to water it with tyrannical Swamp blood.

veritas semper vinces's picture

You do see that we live in a failed state.We live in what I would call a PARASITOCRACY ,not a constitutional republic. No spiritual/moral values,same sex marriage,promotion of pornography for the young ,women treated as whores and taught to consider this as "liberation of women",we have pedophiles,satanists as rulers and nobody does anything about this.We have a fiat Ponzi scheme as "money"9unconstitutional)and no peep from the population,we have wars of aggresions all over the world and no mass protests in the streets,we have a fake culture,entertainment,education,money,economy,GDP,growth,fake unemployment numbers,fake inflation,fake news ,fake food(chemicals,HFCS,fake food pyramid),fake health system and so on....

Last,but not least -we have fake women,uggly,fat,with plastic faces and fake boobs.

So,what do you think,did the constitution failed or not.And do not tell me that  it was the people who should have prevented this. No,the constitution should have had provisions that prevented all this.

The constitution should be written by the people for the people ,not by the rulers for the rulers

aliens is here's picture

The constitution failed not because it is poorly written it's because men/women failed to abide by it and use it to when they see fit.

El Vaquero's picture

Fucking thank you.  I've been saying that you should have to show a working knowledge of how the system is supposed to work before you're allowed to vote.  Low information voters are a bane to a sane republic. 

dark fiber's picture

One million is the van guard.  Main force to follow.

SWRichmond's picture

One million is the van guard.  Main force to follow.

WESTMORELAND. O that we now had here
    But one ten thousand of those men in England
    That do no work to-day!
 
KING. What's he that wishes so?
    My cousin Westmoreland? No, my fair cousin;
    If we are mark'd to die, we are enow
    To do our country loss; and if to live,
    The fewer men, the greater share of honour.
    God's will! I pray thee, wish not one man more.

YORK My lord, most humbly on my knee I beg
The leading of the vaward.
shamus001's picture

Correct! The first 1 million would sponser the other 9 to get off their tailgates and show up.

whatisthat's picture

I would observe it will not only be a march on Washington DC but also every US State Capital.

tx_libtard's picture

I'd was gonna say that Trump would have had to have won the popular vote to be considered a populist, but then I remembered where I was and that facts and logic don't really matter. 

Pickleton's picture

"but then I remembered where I was and that facts and logic don't really matter. "

 

You're a fucking libtard, so of course facts and logic don't matter.  I have yet to see one of you imbeciles ever successfully logic anyway.  Your own failure was right there where you failed to comprehend that popular vote isn't how we do things.

 

Bet you're too stupid to understand how you and yours are the militant nationalist fascists too.

Pickleton's picture

"but then I remembered where I was and that facts and logic don't really matter. "

 

You're a fucking libtard, so of course facts and logic don't matter.  I have yet to see one of you imbeciles ever successfully logic anyway.  Your own failure was right there where you failed to comprehend that popular vote isn't how we do things.

 

Bet you're too stupid to understand how you and yours are the militant nationalist fascists too.

AC_Doctor's picture

@ tx_libtard- your douche broke and that's the sickest number of down votes on ZH ever seen-go back to Austin and at least buy a gun so I won't feel bad about shooting an unarmed asshole like yourself...

max_leering's picture

better yet, Tx_libturd, buy a gun from me, and I'll "accidentally" shoot you in the nuts with it... oh, after you paid me of course

vealparm's picture

Without the fuckwad state of Calfornicatia and douchbag NYC, Trump won the popular vote.....libtard.

Singelguy's picture

You must be from California. Take California out of the picture and Trump won the popular vote by millions in the other 49 states.

LyLo's picture

Now now, don't go bringing your logic to this battle.  Next, you'll start talking about how that was, in fact, the whole point of the electoral college from the get, and the actual argument being written almost like it was specifically to prevent Clinton from being president (what with the whole "talent for low intrigue...may alone suffice to elevate a man to the first honors in a single state; but it will require other talents..to establish him the esteem and confidence of the whole Union" bit).

I swear, it's like they're trying to turn me, a former democrat, into one of those rabid Limbaugh types always screaming about just how deeply evil Democrats actually are.

Scuba Steve's picture

Is an illegal vote really popular?

Go Fuk-Off and Flip a coin libtard fag.

El Vaquero's picture

Definitions matter too.

 

pop·u·list ?päpy?l?st/ noun
1. a member or adherent of a political party seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people.
I'd say that Trump's supporters fall in the ordinary people category, Bucko.  
stitch-rock's picture

Is that why he ousted Bannon and hired Goldman Sachs?

The President (as a job description) is the biggest PR job in the world. It is a figurehead position hollow of meaning or real power.
If people are still, after all the information cascading around the collective consciousness, still arguing
points without that fact inherent in statements of opinion...
those opinions are worse then trivial. Those statements are actually dangerously stupid.

Jugs Fan's picture

Executive Order—Arrest and Imprisonment of Irresponsible Newspaper Reporters and Editors
May 18, 1864

 

This doesn't seem like a position hollow of real power.  

undertow1141's picture

To Soros' paid trolls and Communists (Democrats), Populist is a dirty word.