Banker: "One Million Will March On Washington If They Impeach Trump. They Will Be Armed"

Vince Lanci's picture

via Soren K Group and Marketslant

Because He's TNT

Sometime contributor Bon Scott who happens to be not only a Trump supporter but more importantly a Constitutional expert and Big  "L" Libertarian had this to say in response the 'Impeach Trump' escalation.

10,000,000 people will march on Washington if they try to impeach Trump... they will be heavily armed. I will be one of them. No kidding

While our colleague seems given to hyperbole consider this. Last year as early as February he said:

"Trump can win. Ignore the polls. Polls are meaningless in an election with so many “shock events”. The truth is Donald Trump can win the election in a landslide. 

That was true. We quoted him in our October 2016 post HERE

SKG contributor Vince Lanci echoed Bon's words in this Aug post:

On the flip side Trump fans should be happy.  If past calls are any indication Trump will indeed win in  landslide..

Bon also said in our July Post

Trump will spend like a drunken sailor

That Story HERE

This is also true in Trumps's attempts if not in execution yet. 

 

Can you argue With Bon?

The truth is, while our pseudonymous contributor is given to outrageously couched statements, he  has picked up  on something that is close to our hearts.  You can  see it in how polls are just wrong consistently. And to us that is explainable. The statistical world relies to heavily on  polls. Polls are merely "snapshots' of moments.

What is not revealed in polls is the subjectivity of the person being polled!. We know the bias of pollsters. But what has been ignored for years is subjective probability. That concept relates to trends when humans are involved.

Do you think people are going to be honest with pollsters anymore? No, they say what you want to hear so they can move on. Voting is very private. And people  are taking back that privacy. On a broader scale, subjective or conditional probability includes drifts or trends.  Nassim Taleb is a key proponent of this, and we count him  as a genius in  taking his options  knowledge and applying it to many fields in need of improvement. We also  enjoy his lambasting those dogmatists that do not get it.  Jim Rickards is another subscriber to Bayesian  theorems. 

 

What Is  Bayesian  Probability?

Simply put, is it a 50/50 chance the sun rises tomorrow? Statistically the answer is yes to an uneducated caveman seeing it for the first time. But how many times can that caveman stick with those stats when 5 years later the sun continues to rise?

Personal example: If it is 50/50 that a coin  lands on heads or tails, then how come I could at one time flip a coin and make it land on heads 10x in a row? Statisticians will say " Luck, law of large numbers will fix that". Sorry guys that is just not true.

Here is why. I practiced coin flipping at one point in my trading career to make it a skill. I measured how high it had to go, what side the coin had  to start on, and how hard I had to flip it. Was I cheating? No. What people see as randomness is actually a skill based event via intense practice. Had I let the coin land on the ground it would have been randomized. But I did not.

 

Pollsters Do Not Get it

This is the essence of the core ignorance of pollsters and statisticians. They ignore the human factor. And with that, they miss grass roots macro  trends like the populism that triggered Brexit. They do not see what our friend Bon does, that people are not numbers, and the more we rely on  models dogmatically,  the more likely we are to be surprised. Or as he would say : Dont be stupid! Trump is going to win in a landslide.

So while numbers are counted by Nate Silver, conditional/ subjectivity of the person polled is not factored in. This is the problem in modern  polling and stats. 

In trading we used to Fade brokers to protect ourselves from this. We were taught statistically that it is 50/50 every order is buy/sell. But when  a  broker came in everyday at the same time for 2 months straight and bought from us, that concept meant shit. We used to say:  Crap, how high do I have to make this price so he would not buy from us? And the answer was essentially NONE. That broker was a buyer and would continue to be one until he began unwinding  his position.

 

Option Traders Don't Get it

At the time I understood this as Bayesian probability and explained the rationale for "fading" markets to my boss and mentor. He disagreed. He did not get it. He was an extremely hard working savant who in the end became a bitter detractor despite my idol worship and his own immense  success. When you quit working for him, with only a couple exceptions, you were the enemy.  All this because the man, like the modern pollster could not grasp that whenever human behaviour is involved, probability has a subjective factor.

 

What are the Odds of a DC March if a Populist President is Impeached?

Can we afford to ignore "Bon", our colleague who is quite sane, does not represent the lunatic fringe, and is intimately aware that while Trump may not be a beltway darling, he has governed through populism.

Witness how Trump castrated the media with his "Fake News" press conference. He literally made people reject the MSM info as false and further likely turned people off to even looking at it. 

He effectively put them in a box where they could not sell their wares anymore.

This is no easy task. Winning elections via populism is easy game. But actually governing that way is not easy. We'd dare say,  it has not been done ever in a Republic.

So here we are. A populist-ly elected President who has thus far governed through populism. A president with a loyal following that is likely to not take an unconstitutional impeachment sitting down. Trump will not go quietly into the night. He will appeal to the public. He is a narcissist. And to his credit, narcissists are  all about winning popularity contests.

And against him are now the legal types who will use the Constitution to undermine it.

To Bon we joked:

"To get you and your pals to disburse, all we have to do is kill the wifi."

To which he responded:

That isn't enough. You may get some to go home with Beer bribes, but the core people mean business. They will not stand for this.

 

People vs. Elites

Do you want to bet against a DC march  if Trump is impeached? Do you want to be short Gold or long stocks if that happens?

A march would be an exponential increase in uncertainty. The people vs the Elites. And in the end with Elitist power at their disposal including manipulating the press, social media, revoking freedom of speech and rights to assemble and restricting gun ownership; it wont be enough. There will be the fallback to the use of force. People in power always lean on that when  needed. And while they may have learned marketing and manipulation tricks, at bottom, there is always metal hammer inside that velvet wrapper you see.  

 

People are fed up. Impeach  at Your Own Risk

We personally own 2 guns. A Benelli shotgun for skeet, and a 357 magnum for target range shooting. As believers in gun control laws for non law abiding citizens, we will not be inclined to subscribe to giving up what protects us from  a deep state that does what it wants and when it loses, changes the rules. This is the potential beginning of  the libertarian left and right People aligning against the authoritarian left and right Elitists

 

Impeachment Adds Uncertainty, Not Closure

So this will not end with impeachment. It will only stir more problems at grass roots levels. To tell 50% of the country that already distrusts its institutions that those  same institutions are collaborating to kill off their president may be a spark of revolt unlike anything seen  since the 1960s.

This is the cause that would unite libertarians, rednecks, NRA types, uneducated (but no less human and entitled to constitutional rights) and the silently suffering suburban middle class under one banner. People evolve at their own pace. Stop telling us what is best for us. That is not working out so well for you in the world. Don't do it here

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AC_Doctor's picture

@ tx_libtard- your douche broke and that's the sickest number of down votes on ZH ever seen-go back to Austin and at least buy a gun so I won't feel bad about shooting an unarmed asshole like yourself...

max_leering's picture

better yet, Tx_libturd, buy a gun from me, and I'll "accidentally" shoot you in the nuts with it... oh, after you paid me of course

vealparm's picture

Without the fuckwad state of Calfornicatia and douchbag NYC, Trump won the popular vote.....libtard.

Singelguy's picture

You must be from California. Take California out of the picture and Trump won the popular vote by millions in the other 49 states.

LyLo's picture

Now now, don't go bringing your logic to this battle.  Next, you'll start talking about how that was, in fact, the whole point of the electoral college from the get, and the actual argument being written almost like it was specifically to prevent Clinton from being president (what with the whole "talent for low intrigue...may alone suffice to elevate a man to the first honors in a single state; but it will require other talents..to establish him the esteem and confidence of the whole Union" bit).

I swear, it's like they're trying to turn me, a former democrat, into one of those rabid Limbaugh types always screaming about just how deeply evil Democrats actually are.

Scuba Steve's picture

Is an illegal vote really popular?

Go Fuk-Off and Flip a coin libtard fag.

El Vaquero's picture

Definitions matter too.

 

pop·u·list ?päpy?l?st/ noun
1. a member or adherent of a political party seeking to represent the interests of ordinary people.
I'd say that Trump's supporters fall in the ordinary people category, Bucko.  
stitch-rock's picture

Is that why he ousted Bannon and hired Goldman Sachs?

The President (as a job description) is the biggest PR job in the world. It is a figurehead position hollow of meaning or real power.
If people are still, after all the information cascading around the collective consciousness, still arguing
points without that fact inherent in statements of opinion...
those opinions are worse then trivial. Those statements are actually dangerously stupid.

Jugs Fan's picture

Executive Order—Arrest and Imprisonment of Irresponsible Newspaper Reporters and Editors
May 18, 1864

 

This doesn't seem like a position hollow of real power.  

undertow1141's picture

To Soros' paid trolls and Communists (Democrats), Populist is a dirty word.

Dame Ednas Possum's picture

If if if if... 

If my auntie had balls she'd be my uncle. 

Automatic Choke's picture

and if frogs had wings they wouldn't bump their asses when they hop.

boattrash's picture

and if a frog had glass balls, he'd only jump once.

iamrefreshed's picture

And if worms had machines guns birds wouldn't fuck with them.

aqualech's picture

The majority of people did not vote for Hillary either.  Approximately 75% of people did not vote for Hillary.

ClowardPiven2016's picture

subtract the votes of the "takers" sucking on the tit of the federal government along with the parasitical government employees sucking the life out of the public sector and Trump won by a landslide. 

Got The Wrong No's picture

I'm growing weary of all the obvious Paid Trolls on ZH. This Troll is a 6 weeker and just like the rest of them probably has multiple ID's and new ones in the poster pipeline. 

Paid Trolls are garbage. 

Budnacho's picture

When you long for the measured insanity of MDB you know the trolls have gone too far....

HumanMan's picture

MDB was at least entertainment... 

SILVERGEDDON's picture

Same with Robot Trader.

The guy had a head like a sun fucked onion, but at least he was fun to fuck with.  

Vince Lanci's picture

valid point. call it 50 / 50 o nthe popular vote. He's selling himself to that half. The other half he is not. adn thepeople  he is popularwith are rabid. The non fans are in a dogmatic fog. in demial. This is coming from a largely liberal person.

_triplesix_'s picture

You mean, inside your head?

jmack's picture

 

      Just let me know when you are done moving the goalposts, and we can have an intelligent debate...oh thats right, thats the whole purpose of moving the goals posts, to avoid intelligent debate.

Tallest Skil's picture

You're mentally defective and will likely die in the first 24 hours of any new civil war.

dcmbuffy's picture

get a dictionary- or a real education.

MalteseFalcon's picture

Impeachment talk is just a dumpster fire in the political class.

It isn't happening.

When Trump drives 10-15 million illegal voters from the rolls, Trump will win the popular vote cleanly.

 

deer_flasher's picture

Which he didn't. He couldn't get the frigging wall money and he just forgot about the whole deal, he's deporting less illegals than even obama and business across the border are just getting ravaged and closing doors left and right.

It's unlikely he will be impeached , and the armed protesters are unlikely as well, but I would really like a little less conversation and more action from the annoying orange, he should be like, getting the republicans on board with his ideas instead of pissing them off with shit chat and twitter posts.

By the way, I'm mexican, but I have a higher grade of disdain for mexas(Not mexicans, but the ones that leave here and go to work ilegally in the US and then brag about their leased trucks they don't own and are obnoxious as hell when they come to mexico) than even most anti-ilegal US citizens, but the trump could do more with all the support he has from his people.

NAV's picture

Illegals and their corporate enablers literally have cost white middle-aged American workers their lives.

It’s called “deaths of despair.” The fundamental cause of this rising mortality rate is attributed to economic malaise, i.e., death caused by snuffed out job opportunities for low-skilled whites primarily displaced by illegals, millions of low-wage foreign-born legals and by offshoring, especially in manufacturing.

The mortality rate of white middle-aged workers not only rose between 1999 and 2013, but according to scholars Anne Case and Angus Deaton as reported in The Economist, “by 2013 middle-aged white Americans were dying at twice the rate of similarly aged Swedes of all races. Suicide, drug overdoses and alcohol abuse were to blame.” In Europe, overall middle-age mortality continues to fall.

Recent updated results show that "white middle-age mortality in the U.S. continued to rise in 2014 and 2015, contributing to a fall in life expectancy in the population as a whole.”

The fundamental cause, according to the research team, is that life has become less secure for low-skilled white men, leaving them “feeling helpless and desperate”; “a misery that flows from crushed expectations.”

The authors report that deaths of despair are much lower for blacks and Hispanics.

The Economist prediction: “Life is unlikely to become more secure for the low-skilled; in fact, policy may soon make it more perilous.” And just to add salt to the wounds, these whites are referred to as “non-Hispanic Americans.” Elites at The Economist also make this suggestion: “Reducing despair may lie in future generations of low-skilled Americans curbing their aspirations.” (The Economist March 25th 2017 issue)

HalinCA's picture

How can he do that?  It is up to each state to set rules for who can/cannot vote.  Think MA or CA will ever allow that to happen in their states?

Which Federal court of appeals will support Trump?

I'd love to see it happen, but even in states where he won, like Michigan, run by a Republican governor, there is no interest in pushing local election reform that would purge illegal voters or ensure election officials don't cook the books.  

Over half of Detroit's precincts could not be recounted due to irregularities:

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/12/05/recount-unreco...

1/3 of precincts had more votes than registered voters:

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/12/12/records-many-v...

 

Warthog777's picture

more like 20 million illegal voters and when you add in all the dead people and multiple vote voters, it's more like 40 million.  Hell I don't think enough people are insane or terminally stupid enough to have voted in these criminal retards for the last 100 years.  We been scammed!

Stuck on Zero's picture

Fake news. Fake intelligence. Fake representation. Fake government. Fake markets. Fake money.

duo's picture

Food without nutrition. Medicine without health. Education without knowledge. Friends without friendship. Everything is fake.

giovanni_f's picture

but real corruption, real war, real pedophiles, real collateral damages in Mosul