Height Securities: Investors Should Start Considering "Drama Free President Mike Pence"

Tyler Durden's picture

Even before the Comey memo news broke after the close on Tuesday, Height Securities' Peter Cohn was already ahead of the curve, warning what key catalysts to look for should the push for Trump impeachment accelerate. Specifically, he said that while Democrats were guaranteed to push for impeachment, they are mostly noise as any credible move to impeach the president would have to start within the Republican party. As such Trump's conduct "raises questions for investors about whether senior Republicans will abandon ship."

Cohn also said that the bigest question was who, if anyone, would be the first Republican to push for removing the president, with the name cited name being that of John McCain:

Cutting to the chase, Cohn writes that ending Trump’s viability as president "depends on Republicans turning against him", as impeachment proceedings can only begin with the majority party, and the 25th Amendment (allowing for president’s removal when unable to discharge powers/duties of his office) can only be invoked by Congress and/or vice president, majority of Cabinet.

 

What will Height be closely watching to see if the Trump drama enters a potentially terminal phase: the main catalyst is whether Sen. John McCain, chairman of Armed Services Committee, begins calling for Trump’s resignation, as U.S. national security issues may increase concern among Republican voters.

 

Cohn also says to closely watch other senators for even a faint trace of statements and speeches that can be parsed for any signs of throwing Trump "under the bus" as these will be a trial balloon for group sentiment toward Trump.

One day later, things are moving fast, with not only Democrats now openly calling for impeachment, but even GOP Rep. Justin Amash stating that if the Comey memo report is true, it would merit impeachment.

So what does Height's Cohn thing today? In a note released this morning, the political analyst notes that "investors seem to be initially reacting poorly to the prospect of Trump’s ouster from the Oval Office", however he takes the "impeachment thought experiment" to its logical conclusion and says that investors "should consider that drama-free Vice President Mike Pence would assume position with strong working relationships on Capitol Hill, knowledge of political process from years in House and as Indiana Governor."

He adds that "having a president with more political capital to spend, higher approval ratings may mean more gets done legislatively" and concludes that "investors may question whether White House’s 'constant atmosphere of craziness' is worth taking a few extra months to get tax reform done."

In other words, at least one analyst has already moved on beyong president Trump, and now envisions (a much more market friendly) president Pence. There is, of course,  the social element: how will US society, and especially Trump's voters react to an impeachment. Cohn did not go into that much detail as the answer may be too troubling to contemplate.

And while Height Securities appears to have thrown in the towel on president Pence, here is how some other political analysts have reacted to events over the past 24 hours, courtesy of Bloomberg.

COMPASS POINT (Isaac Boltansky)

  • Trump Trade optimism was already tempering as market became reacquainted with "painfully slow" legislative process, but now market is forced to consider what valuations should look like if agenda doesn’t materialize
  • Client questions have shifted since last night to considerations of special prosecutors, impacts on nominations, even impeachment; too early to fully contour issue’s legal/political impact
  • Also too early to throw in the towel on tax cuts before the midterms, but Compass Point is concerned there may be meaningful market reaction if headlines persist, House Ways & Means Committee fails to show "some semblance of policy cohesion" during upcoming hearings

BEACON POLICY ADVISORS

  • Any talk of impeachment will remain "just talk" as long as GOP keeps control of House, adding that even if Democrats gained control in 2018, Senate would still need to convict president by at least two-thirds majority
  • Real focus for investors should not be on whether the president will survive, but to what extent his agenda will survive
  • Still optimistic congressional Republicans will deliver healthcare and tax reform legislation, though the more internal chaos West Wing faces, the more difficult it will be for Trump administration to execute on agenda items and fill still-vacant agency positions

CANTOR FITZGERALD (Peter Cecchini)

  • If this throws a wrench into implementation of reflationary, pro-growth policies like infrastructure spending, tax reform, and financial deregulation -- how is it then, that reflation narrative (which was based on swift implementation of such policies), isn’t being rebuffed?
  • Notes 5-year, 10-year break evens show how quickly inflation has stalled
  • Inflation in 2H 2016, early 2017 was synchronized and global, and it came largely from supply curtailments in oil and industrial commodities; now that supply has largely normalized for demand environment, prices are unlikely to rise further

FTN (Jim Vogel)

  • Financial markets sit in "squirming mode" rather than anything resembling real concern when it comes to daily DC news bulletins
  • Just like Trump trade’s first leg, economic scenarios hinge on series of future political decisions that traders can speculate about, but only with limited conviction; for example, implications of sacking FBI director are akin to current tax reform plan: ideas on a single sheet of paper
  • Washington is impacting global price levels -- just not driving them in a particular direction yet; lack of a driver is particularly important to interest rates this month, because bonds and currencies have been most sensitive to potential for federal policy shifts toward gridlock; that sensitivity has been in only one direction, a "vulnerable trend," while Fed can always decide to go "uber-hawk" to prevent greater danger

KBW (Brian Gardner)

  • So far, financial markets had seemed to dismiss drama in Washington as just political noise; that may be ending as post- election rally had been supported by faith in Trump’s tax- cutting, deregulating agenda -- which is now in "mortal danger"
  • Latest crisis further decreases chances of passing financial regulation legislation that makes changes with bipartisan support, like raising bank $50b SIFI threshold; tax reform likely to be more limited than earlier proposals

MILLER TABAK (Matt Maley)

  • The market has been priced under the assumption Trump will get his proposals enacted and it might just take a bit longer than first thought, so if it appears that policy changes might be delayed significantly or not happen at all, that would need to be factored in

Source: Bloomberg

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Shlomo Scheckelstein's picture

Page 2 of the Talmudic handbook

Jim Sampson's picture

You mean "Height: Investors Should Start Considering War."?

BullyBearish's picture

when shrump goes...this zionist-enabling warmongering evangelical "christian" gotta go too...

Shlomo Scheckelstein's picture

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist...

NoDebt's picture

They're already warming up the presidential helicopter out on the south lawn for Trump's final exit from the WH.

I hope Trump doesn't do that stupid peace sign thing like Nixon did before boarding.  Two big middle fingers would be my choice.

 

Shlomo Scheckelstein's picture

you mean the masonic V for the synagogue of the gentiles and goyim..

NoDebt's picture

Yes, that's what I meant.  My apologies.  I'd still go with the middle finger, though, if I were Trump.

I'm still chuckling at your screen name.  I think you have a bright future ahead of you at ZH.

 

BaBaBouy's picture

"Prez Pence" ... Wasn't That The Plan All Along ~~~

Deep State, Baby...

NoDebt's picture

He's the consolation prize.  They wanted Hillary.

 

Manthong's picture

“Height Securities: Investors Should Start Considering "Drama Free President Mike Pence"”

Probably Hillary contributors…

But I agree with the basic premise considering it will start in 2024.

FrozenGoodz's picture

Pence is a kook too ... I know he voted for healthcare bill for political win, but it won't be forgotten he supported that pos ... and let Dawn use him as a pawn ... less of a spine than Ryan

froze25's picture

I am not sure someone could have "negative" spine, as Ryan has no spine and is a globalist puppet of the NWO.

azusgm's picture

Didn't almost all of the bankster campaign bucks go to Hillary?

They are still hoping for the ROI, although discounted. This President Pence meme started rumbling well before Inauguration Day.

Don't participate.

froze25's picture

Funny how a Tax cut to the middle class (working people) would be in mortal danger, as if its so terrible to finally give the backbone of the economy a helping hand instead of endless handouts to welfare class.

t0mmyBerg's picture

Deep state yes but Trum just keeps stepping in it.  No internal filter.  If he pressed Comey to end investigation that is just plain stupid.  Not necessarily impeachable but stupid.  Of course hearing the MSM get all worked up about it is nauseating as they never lifted a voice to anything Obama did, and his abuse of power was actually real and much worse than anything Trump has done.

But Pence would be a disater.  Drama free?   Really?  Any time you get a religious freak in charge it is hardly going to be drama free.

Delving Eye's picture

Agree. And Pence is such a bore -- on top of his pudding face. Please God, let Trump reign!

Itinerant's picture

Far from drama free. Too many people will feel disenfranchised, and lose hope, many of them people who have nothing to lose (dangerous).

Pence will fully enable the neo-cons, which on the war and foreign policy front is guaranteed to generate drama.

There will be a lot of opposition that cannot find a voice in either of the two parties.

peopledontwanttruth's picture

My sediments to, Trump will resign (probably health issue) as go quietly to his secure place that he was promised to run and get Pence in the backdoor.

Consuelo's picture

 

 

 Judging by the methods of the entertainment industry, I'd wager it might even be worse than not existing...   When Beezlebub can pass himself off as 'ha-ha-ha all in good fun', and 'what are you so uptight about', it is that level of cunning which shows true mastery...

Bill of Rights's picture

The what asshole who you have in mind?

Shlomo Scheckelstein's picture

the goy asshole, just like the last time we stick it in you

Bill of Rights's picture

Your not big enough farm boy trust me on that...I fear non of you cunts not even a little.

Shlomo Scheckelstein's picture

We just use the policy enforcers and order followers. Just like we dealt with Bill Cooper

BullyBearish's picture

the person this country needs as president is, by design, hidden by the ptb...but if we are lucky, that person will emerge...

Got The Wrong No's picture

I think it is completely obvious that the person you wish for can only be approved by the Deep State. So wishing is futile. There is only one way to rid us from serfdom and it will be painful and also maybe futile. The edge of the precipice is staring us in the face. Will we take the leap or will we succumb to Tyranny? 

GUS100CORRINA's picture

Height Securities: Investors Should Start Considering "Drama Free President Mike Pence"

My response:  While i deeply respect Vice President Pence and believe he would serve the USA well, what we are dealing with in Washington DC is corruption and deceit. President TRUMP was put there to clean up the mess and that makes people mad.

President TRUMP is America's Nineveh moment. 

If this TRUMP BASHING doesn't stop, the following quotation will become America's nightmare.

Thomas Jefferson ...

"I TREMBLE FOR MY NATION WHEN I KNOW THAT GOD IS JUST AND HIS JUSTICE CANNOT SLEEP FOREVER."

If GOD ever gave America true JUSTICE, America would be laid waste including all of its citizens and it markets!!!!!

AMERICAN Investment Firms and POLITICAL leaders should careful what they wish for because it might become a nightmare from which they will be fleeing for their lives.

Personnaly, I hope we really get the CORRECTION that is way overdue. I want to watch the Investment Firms, DEMOCRATS and RINOs explain to the American people why they are worth less because it was in the nations best interest to bash President TRUMP

Liberty2012's picture

All of these attempts to unseat the President simply because you don't like him, or disagree with him, are treasonous.

Hopefully, it is a sign that the treasoners are failing.

Either we have a democracy inside a republic, or we have totalitarian rule.

Civilization, and all good things in life, requires free will.

CJgipper's picture

Let's just say they manage to oust Trump without this rural rebellion going hot.

 

You really think they're not going to take out Pence?

quadraspleen's picture

Surely this was the plan all along?

BabaLooey's picture

I have - for some time now - laughed in the fucking faces of these Never-Trumper motherfuckers. 

Stupid shites - as dumb as a bag of dirt.

Lots of Trump supporters own guns. Here's hoping they open fire and wipe out scores of these scumcunts.

 

CJgipper's picture

This civil war will be much, MUCH shorter than the last.

Perimetr's picture

Height is just another tool of the deep state.

Question for Mr. Height: Will World War 3 will be good for business?

IridiumRebel's picture

Oh absolutely. He crows like a fucking gargoyle.
Fucks like this deserve to be arcwelded into their bunkers for eternity.

Shlomo Scheckelstein's picture

Of course imagine the shekels and interest that can be made when we lead the goys and gentiles to slaughter.

HRClinton's picture

Like I said: "Maidan Square style protests coming to DC this summer."

That will scare the Markets, and cause GOP Senators to abandon Trump.

Up next: Dense Pence. The Markets will love it. So will the MSM, the Bushes, Obamas, and Bill and I.

FishFingered's picture

(((Peter Cohn))) says Trump has to go, echoing his co-religionists and those they have bought or blackmailed with hairless Pizza.

 

These people don't seem to see they are waking up most of the population. I don't think China is going to take them in and let them take over there.

Fake Trump's picture

President Mike Pence you're almost there.

Consuelo's picture

 

 

Oh my, I sure hope the choreographers of this 'script' don't get too far ahead of themselves - it might begin to look like -------- 'Fake'...?  

 

 

Fake Trump's picture

Kim couldn't stop laughing.

Bill of Rights's picture

Funny the doctors couldn't stop either when they got a glimpse of your dumb ass falling out the canal

AlexCharting's picture

Pence is a sniper, while Trump shoots from the hip.

HRClinton's picture

Dense Pence a sniper? 

LOL. More like a butt-wiper for the Deep State, you poor misguided soul.

jmack's picture

Whatever the case, Trump as Trump is over, unless he comes back with complete repudiation of Comey's memo, he will have to accept the bitch collar and leash from the republicans to survive impeachment.

CJgipper's picture

What does a February memo have to do with an investigation ended in January?  More fake news.  That's what.

jmack's picture

  Reality has nothing to do with it, it is a fig leaf to allow all the elites to justify their actions.   

 

    This is the whole point, the elites are shoving this down the country's throat because they can,  basically telling anyone that thought that the US was a nation of laws, that that is over, and they run this show, period.    

 

      The blatant manner in which they are doing it is just a little more subtle than Erdogan's  "coup" attempt.

Soph's picture

Pretty much spot on.

The real question has always been, imo, will those that voted for Trump actually stand and support their president (by whatever means) when the time comes. I have no answer to that question, but it is the only relevant one imo.

jmack's picture

 

   Yep, the response by rule of law americans is the  big question.     The only legit response is to start the long path to regaining soft power dominance.   If they short cut to direct action violence, it will probably only accelerate the deep states transition to a more blatantly authoritarian state.