JPMorgan: "A Trump Impeachment Is Very, Very Unlikely"

Tyler Durden's picture

While it's not the product of JPM's political analysts, but instead comes straight from the far more visceral and intuitive trading desk, moments ago JPMorgan, as part of its intraday summary, notes that contrary to some other speculation, most notably by Heights Securities, a "Trump impeachment is very, very unlikely" and adds that "the impeachment bar is very, very high. The daily scandals obviously don’t help Trump’s political capital but market expectations for legislative action are already very low."

But first, here is JPM's intraday market on what is shaping up as the worst day for stocks since before the new year.

Market update – there is red across the board in equities. The headline reason is the NYT article from Tues night (the first to reveal the “I hope you can let this go” comment from Trump to Comey) but weeks of benign volatility (which helped sow complacent sentiment) and crowded positioning in certain stocks/sectors is exacerbating the move lower. Trading is more active but not panicked or rushed. The biggest problem for stocks isn’t so much the Trump controversies but instead the big TSY rally – yields down across the board and the 2-10 spread is cracking below the closely-watched 100bp level (this is hitting the banks hard; the 2-10 spread has surrendered all of its post-11/8 widening but the BKX is still well above where it stood pre-election). Wall St expectations for realization of the pro-growth agenda are fading but they had already moderated substantially over the last several months; more important is the trajectory of domestic nominal growth (while there wasn’t any major data out Wed morning some recent numbers, including the CPI, have fallen underwhelmed expectations).

FInally, JPM on Trump's impeachment chances:

Trump - impeachment very, very unlikely and regardless it wouldn't be positive. There is a lot of talk about Trump impeachment and how a President Pence could be a positive. It is way, way too early to begin having the impeachment conversation. Impeachment is much more a political (instead of a legal) process and w/the GOP controlling both chambers and Trump's popularity in the party being (relatively) healthy the political dynamics don't signal impeachment. That could change in Jan '19 assuming Republicans lose either the House or Senate in Nov ’18 but if that happens the whole pro-growth agenda would grind to a halt. The impeachment bar is very, very high (no president ever has been removed from office as a result of impeachment; two had articles of impeachment brought up in the House before being acquitted in the Senate; one resigned before going through the process). The daily scandals obviously don’t help Trump’s political capital but market expectations for legislative action are already very low.

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Darktarra's picture

Its all fucking fake news and frankly I turn it off!  

BullyBearish's picture

...and subprime is contained...

froze25's picture

This is straight out from "rules for radicals", repeat an allegation non-stop so that the public believes it is true.

Dame Ednas Possum's picture

It never ceases to amaze me how many fools breathlessly fall for it though. 

And in a democracy, only a majority is required. Often not even a majority given the growing apathy of the most.  How can people care about this nonsense when they're struggling to put food on the table? 

It just adds insult to injury. 


froze25's picture

I guess thats the plan and why the wish the middle class to disappear. Keep us busy staying alive so that we can't call them out on their bullshit.

pugilist's picture

a whole lot of people said a Trump win was "very, very unlikely"

JRobby's picture

Then BUY!!!!

Then SELLL!!!

NidStyles's picture

They will bring him to impeachment hearings, and he will hand them all their asses.


All they are doing is setting themselves up so that they he can actually go after them full force in full view of the public. These people are fucking retarded, and they deserve what is about to happen to them.

MalteseFalcon's picture

There will be no impeachment.

AltRight Girl's picture

So this bank has their bet on Trump.

Wonder how the other kikesters are betting. By the look of their propaganda machine, the MSM, they are all in for Deep State and Clintons

Too Many Similarities Between Seth Rich Murder and “Clinton Body Count” Victims


meta-trader's picture

she was a waitress in a cocktail bar now she owns a jet...

caconhma's picture

JPM is wrong. Republicans will start to abandon ship very soon since Trump will ruin them well before the next elections.

overbet's picture

Is it illegal to say you "hope" for something? I hope a lot of things way worse than that statment.


The actions of the press seem more damaging to our country than someone stating their personal hope.


Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

but market expectations for legislative action are already very low."


How the fuck, we have control over all branches....this statement is retarded

froze25's picture

Simply because you have McCain, Graham and Ryan along with their other RINO's that are not part of the "we".

Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

They are outnumbed and out ranked, they have no say anymore.  

AGuy's picture

The problem is that nobody in the house or Senate likes Trump. Normally the Candidate's party protects the president. I think this time "is different". We'll have to see.

Even if the Comey mess blows over, there will be other problems that prop up. These people will not rest until Trump is removed, or quits.

Arnold's picture

What scandals?
The scandal is the head explosions at the Bezos press.
It's scattering shit and brains all over everybody.

meditate_vigorously's picture

Someone at the GS branch of the JWO is getting a little skittish about the potential blowback of the JWO showing their hand.

Shlomo Scheckelstein's picture

JP Morgan “Gold Is Money, Everything Else Is Credit”

HRClinton's picture

Gold is gold.

Money is whatever people believe it is. Always has been so, always will be so.

ParkAveFlasher's picture

"Currency" is whatever people believe it is.  "Money" is what remains to trade in after "currency" can no longer be redeemed.

PrayingMantis's picture


... the new Golden Rule ... he who holds the Gold, rules ...



Shlomo Scheckelstein's picture

I love it when everybody is divided. The divided states of America.

meditate_vigorously's picture

That has usefulness as a logical understanding, but you are really just having a semantical argument with HRC.

Bill of Rights's picture

Exactly its all bull shit...

Bobportlandor's picture


World-Gone-Mad's picture

The bad guys are in a panic! Drain the Swamp!

Arnold's picture

Panic is three weeks past.

With the displacement of Comey, and Sessions in place,
The Pedo Prosecution file is full and ready to go to the Ninth Circuit to get 50 percent of them recused as Judges for conflict of interest.

Arnold's picture

Will all passengers please fasten down their protective head gear.
Thank you.

quadraspleen's picture

That's as may be, but it's all great entertainment

swmnguy's picture

I think it's a lot more likely President Trump resigns in frustration, than an impeachment process.

Bill of Rights's picture

Trump may be a lot of things but he is not a quitter...

roadhazard's picture

I agree, if things start looking bad he will pull a Nixxon.

aliki's picture

he's not getting fucking impeached

u need 2/3 of the senate AFTER it would pass the house

60 million people voted for trump

if u were in the house or senate would you like those odds when u come up for re-election?

obama flew fucking planes full of cash into iran, left 4 guys to fend for themselves & die in a shithole northern african city while running guns to syria, fast & furious, IRS targeting of conservatives, strong-arming justice roberts during obamacare debate, traded 6 hi-ranking terrorists for a fucking desserter who showed the enemy how to best attack our humvees & had 14 guys die looking for him, took over & FUCKED our healthcare system, pissed away $1 trillion in "stimulus" (then laughed about it), racked-up $10 trillion in debt, overthru leaders in ukraine, egypt, libya, and wanted to in syria ... oh, and lets not forget - obama wanted to share classified intel with the russians regarding terrorist networks in syria - so ok when O wanted to do it but not trump? fuck the MSM and this made-up "story" of impeachment & treason.

if obama didnt get impeached for train-wreck after train-wreck that he conducted in 8 years, no way trump gets a glove on him for this.

Dame Ednas Possum's picture

But but ... this time is different!


sheikurbootie's picture

I had forgotten half the shit the Magical Negro did.  I did my best not to pay attention so as not to be too pissed off.

Trump will never be impeached.  The world has no idea how close it came to the US government being overthrown by the citizens.  It was a godsend that Trump won without hassle.  To hassle him now would result in the same if not worse.  The media will be included now.  We the People have the power, not the government.  They need to be reminded on occasion.

29.5 hours's picture

An impreachment is unlikely, yes. However, take a look at US Constitution's 25th Amendment. Is an internal coup more likely than impeachment? Maybe yes.


aliki's picture

29.5 - i agree with on the 25th

im not sure whose bright idea it was to plan a trip to saudi arabia - i personally have no clue how u have a high-degree of certainty u can keep him safe there ... especially after it was bannon and his team that endorsed 9-11 families to sue them (which as a 9-11 family, we supported that move by bannons wing 100%)

either that or he just steps down - i get the notion hes beyond sick of this shit but i dont see him bowing-out before 4 years are over ... after his first term, thats when i think he hands it off to pence. JMO

south40_dreams's picture

Impeached for offending the deep state bureaucracy? He should get a Nobel prize!

European American's picture

"JPM on Trump's impeachment chances"

Who is the spokesperson for JPM?

'Impeachment of Trump' is ultimately written up by our rogue "Intelligence" corporations who own the politicians who are the mouthpieces for this scripted talk, to bend the mushed minds of the masses to believe in the illusion.

farflungstar's picture

Delusional press coons and snowflakes can close their eyes tightly and still wish for it though

small axe's picture

Fuck you, Morgan

JPMorgan Chase

Total Assets: $2,490,972,000,000 (just under 2.5 trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $46,992,293,000,000 (nearly 47 trillion dollars)


next up, Goldman with their plea to stauch the bloodletting. These banks can't afford any deviatation from the narrative.

Bill of Rights's picture

Enjoy Retards


Ill just leave this right here...

Executive order 13,526 WRITTEN BY OBAMA states that the president can share classified info with whomever he wants to. Because he is the head of the executive branch it is the right of the president to classify or declassify info as he sees fit, no law against it.


    (2) Classified information originating in one agency may be disseminated by any other agency to which it has been made available to a foreign government in accordance with statute, this order, directives implementing this order, direction of the President, or with the consent of the originating agency. For the purposes of this section, ‘‘foreign government’’ includes any element of a foreign government, or an international organization of governments, or any element thereof.



This is the Law

Soul Glow's picture

In other words, "Don't put any risk on the bull market!"

Conax's picture

JPM = down $2.77.

He had to say sumpin.

CrimsonAvenger's picture

Wait - "market expectations for legislative action are already very low"? I thought the 4,000+ point runup in the market was supposed to be because of his agenda?

RawPawg's picture

things people say in order to keep the value up of their skin in the game