"Trump Isn't A Trainwreck" Nassim Taleb Destroys Media Narrative, Urges "Rational" Investors To Hedge

Tyler Durden's picture

When Nassim Nicholas Taleb looks at President Donald Trump, he doesn’t see “a trainwreck.” The real trainwreck, according to the trader turned author, is “unfettered globalization." That's the real danger that members of "the resistance" should be worried about, Taleb says during an interview with Bloomberg.

While he may not be a staunch "anti-globalist", at least Trump has promised to fix some things in system that, left unchecked, will sooner or later lead to wealth accumulating disproportionately at the top end of income earners as wave after wave of corporate consolidation lines the pockets of the transnational corporate class. When he wrote about the dangers of globalization in his book “The Black Swan, “everybody cheered," Taleb reminds his host. But now, people are defining their views on globalization based on their blanket opposition to Trump, causing them to overlook an even more sinister threat to their economic well being.

Trump could still prove to be a disappointment if he ends up abandoning his promises. But Taleb rejects the narrative of Trump that “some people” - the readers of The New York Times and Washington Post - are buying into: That Trump tried to pressure former FBI Director James Comey into dropping the bureau’s investigation into Mike Flynn, and is on the verge of being impeached.

Ignoring the ceaseless fearmongering in the media, Trump isn’t really that different from other politicians, Taleb says: The main differences are “his language and how he does things in an accelerated way.”

"Trump is not an idiot. There’s a logic to Trump that you can only get if you forget about the news and you look at Trump as Trump.”

By vowing to fix America's “metastatic” tax code, Trump is on the cusp of accomplishing something truly remarkable by solving a problem 32 years in the making. Taleb also believes that Obamacare should be replaced with something “more rational." Though he stopped short of saying whether the AHCA is the right answer, he made it very clear: It's not single-payer.

“We’re not Canadians. Canada is a small country you cannot scale things up. We need something different,” Taleb says. However, Trump has made one major mistake when it comes to message: He's tried to own the market’s performance since the election. By doing so, Trump “bought at the top,” unlike Obama, who took office at the outset of an eight year bull market.

“Claiming credit for that rise in the market makes him vulnerable to a selloff.” While Tuesday's selloff was likely just a “blip," the tail risk in the market increases with each new record high in the S&P 500.

“If you own stocks without a hedge [right now], it’s not rational.”

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ciscokid's picture

Hedge in what way exactly?

BorisTheBlade's picture

Your userpic hints in the right direction.

Paul Kersey's picture

"While he may not be a staunch "anti-globalist", at least Trump has promised to fix some things in system"

It would be next to impossible to find any group that is more globalist than the Goldmanites, and it's the Goldmanites in Trump's cabinet that have been officially put in charge of the US economy. The Trump Presidency is owned by the money changing, wealth extractors, who are going all out to run the table before the Main Street collapse becomes a Wall Street collapse. Articles like these only serve to prove that Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Black Swan" is most likely a one hit wonder.

tmosley's picture

What have they done under Trump that you find objectionable?

svayambhu108's picture

Hedging? I think he meant zerohedging

quebecgold's picture

Nassim for President!! He's the most intelligent man on earth. 

DeltaDawn's picture

Sorry.....we don't get to have anyone talented and wise like Nassim.  Get geared up THE ROCK vs. Chelsea Clinton in 2020.  As soon as the closed doors impeachment proceedings began, the networks will shift to nonstop coverage of the next election.

Post-Truth Society's picture

The Muslim Anti-Christ Trump has already broken all promises, but he will keep pretending because he is the great deceiver with Kushner whispering in his ear.

Trump found his perfect scapegoat in Seth Rich, framed up nicely for leaks.  "Trump's bodycount will keep rising."


HowdyDoody's picture

Breaking: The Swedish Authorities have cancelled the European Arrest Warrant over Assange, stating no charges will be placed. The UK government, being a total US-Israeli stooge has said it will arrest Assange if he leaves the Ecudorean Embassy.

RiverRoad's picture

Comey out...........Assange out.


Handful of Dust's picture

Trump is still playing softball while the Dems arre playing hardball.

Trump considering Lieberman for FBI? is he nuts?! Look at what the other dem did to him---Rosenctern assistant AG who appointed a special prosecutor to "investigate Trump" while doing NOTHING about the real crooks---Hillary, Huma, Lois Lerner, Holder, Lowrenta, Pedopodesta, Debbie Wasserman, etc.

There's plenty of evidence to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Obama and Susan Rice for wiretapping trump and Congress people.

If Trump considers Lieberman, he might as well consider Bernia Sanders and Shumer and seal his own demise imo.

el buitre's picture

Actually, the USSA and Israel are City of London stooges.  Other than that, agree.

Socratic Dog's picture

Jesus. So Trump killed Seth Rich.

I'm flabbergasted.

New_Meat's picture

and we finally learn that he bagged Vince Foster "bigly"

Creative_Destruct's picture

Well, he does call himself "Post" Truth, so it fits this troll. 

But, as much as I think Trump was/is a must-have alternative to the H- Witch and the Globalist Elitists (excuse the f'n Goldmanites who are what I HOPE are part of  a "keep your enemies closer" ploy) I agree with Taleb about this:

"However, Trump has made one major mistake when it comes to message: He's tried to own the market’s performance since the election. By doing so, Trump “bought at the top,” unlike Obama, who took office at the outset of an eight year bull market."

It's always mystified me why he did this and why he didn't stick to his TRUE narative that the market is an obvious bubble waiting to burst and splatter the economy.

shovelhead's picture


Is there a sign on ZH's front door that says "Crazy bag ladies welcome here"?

SaintInix's picture

That's okay, because that total farce will lead into Philly D for Prez in 2024!

Vote for common sense, vote Phillip DeFranco in 2024!

petar's picture

Even his biggest fan is realizing: "He is aggressive, but He may not deliver."

quebecgold's picture

Nassim for President!! He's the most intelligent man on earth. 

Paul Kersey's picture

"What have they done under Trump that you find objectionable?"

Allow the Goldmanites to do away with all regulations on big banks.

Pushing to do away with inheritance taxes on billionaires, while having middle class Americans pay for the shortfall by installing a national gasoline tax on those who live from paycheck to paycheck.

Opening up the eastern US shorline for oil drilling, when we are awash with oil.

Rolling back pollution laws.

Protecting the Clintons instead of jailing them.

Pandering to the Likud party.

Setting up a $100 billion arms deal with the Saudis.

Making bank for the military-industrial-complex by increasing US involvement in foreign wars.

Reneging on their promise to bring back Glass-Steagall.

I could go on and on, but what's the point?

tmosley's picture

>Allow the Goldmanites to do away with all regulations on big banks.

I don't think this actually happened.

>Pushing to do away with inheritance taxes on billionaires, while having middle class Americans pay for the shortfall by installing a national gasoline tax on those who live from paycheck to paycheck.

Actions speak louder than words in the Trump Administration.

>Opening up the eastern US shorline for oil drilling, when we are awash with oil.

Allowing people to conduct business? That is at least 6,000,000 times worse than the Holocaust.

>Rolling back pollution laws.

Cry me a river, hippy.

>Protecting the Clintons instead of jailing them.

You're an impatient little fella, aincha?

>Pandering to the Likud party.

Negotiations don't seem to be going in Israel's favor.

>Setting up a $100 billion arms deal with the Saudis.

Status quo was us spending $100 billion dollars defending them. Now we are getting paid. Seems like a better deal.

>Making bank for the military-industrial-complex by increasing US involvement in foreign wars.

There has been no actual increase in US involvement in any wars. A few cruise missiles and a coupld of carrier group redeployments.

>Reneging on their promise to bring back Glass-Steagall.

You're an impatient little fella, aincha?

You need better arguments. Preferably backed with facts (ie not feelings), taking into account the negotiation perspective, etc. I haven't seen, nor have you posted anything that they have DONE (ie not just failed to do) that has benefited GS in any significant manner.

techpriest's picture

Also, which pollution laws got rolled back, exactly? Yes the EPA is supposed to get cuts, but their willingness to actually deal with "pollution" is a farce. They will rain hammers and fire on a farmer who builds a pond on his property, but if ammonia runs off his field of Monsanto-brand GMO corn they do nothing.

tmosley's picture

Yes, several of his complaints are like that. Complaining about trying to get rid of the inheritance tax is particularly galling. I guess he thinks he is entitled to other people's wealth when they die, like the guy who picks the pocket of a corpse he finds in the street.

New_Meat's picture

Oh, there were those "regulations" on odourless, colourless plant food.  Those aren't laws, though, no laws rolled back.

Maybe the Environmental Pollution Agency can clean up a river or two?

caconhma's picture

WOW, so many American people are blind idiots. They don't see what is happening in front of their own eyes.

Trump's health, tax code, regulations, foreign policies WILL NOT be written by Trump but rather by GS, zio-banking mafia, McCain and other neocons.

This con-artist is really good being capable of fooling so many people. Disgusting!

Sages wife's picture

Not unlike his predecessor.

shovelhead's picture

But...but ...Black.

Black is automatically good. The science is settled.

tmosley's picture

If he's so good, how do you know he isn't fooling his GS employees?

Or is he not THAT good? Is there a very precise level that he is playing at, and you just happen to know EXACTLY how good of a con man he is?

Paul Kersey's picture

"If he's so good, how do you know he isn't fooling his GS employees?"

Trump's pretty much done fooling most folks, and Trump fooling the Golimanites would be like Madoff's 'clients' fooling Madoff. Trump's even having a hard time fooling himself. Calling the Goldmanite's Trump's employees is really a stretch. Trump owes Goldman Sachs millions of dollars.

You, however, appear to still be one of the few true believers. Try to remember what happened to the true believers in Jonestown, and, for your own good, stop drinking the orange kool aid.

tmosley's picture

Not until you guys present a well reasoned thesis backed by logic and evidence. All most of you seem to be able to do is string together words with negative connotations. If Trump is evil, then he is the most dangerous man that has ever existed, and you had better start acting like it. If he isn't, then you really shouldn't be giving him all this shit.

BullyBearish's picture

besides hope...what else do you have?


by the way, are you a zionist?

tr123's picture

Yeah, but Black Swan certainly isn't a one hit wonder.  I've got to admit that I haven't even read his books yet but his stream of articles and book excerpts on Medium published after Trump's election (which he predicted) have been top notch. He's basically come out and said "I now have FU money" and is writing whatever he pleases, and I've found it well worth my time. One of the only authors today that always has something interesting to say.

Caloot's picture

Only complete low iq morons think he is a moron.   I love watching uneducated ebt parasites, Facebook from their McDonald's job, that Trump is a moron.

null's picture

In the sense that only an idiot, his defeated opponent(s), would project their own intentions onto him. Intentions, as we have learned, to sell US foreign policy via a Ukrainian run illegal communication system.

Keep feeding the idiots ... it's obviously part of the non-idiot's plan [to MAGA perhaps].

The_Passenger's picture

I recommend reading the in depth interview of Trump with the Economist and deciding for yourself. http://www.economist.com/Trumptranscript?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/transcript...

ciscokid's picture

Just wanted to hear some one say Gold and Silver.

BorisTheBlade's picture

I would, but I'm still upset over recent boating accident involving both.

RealityCheque's picture

The sea....she is a harsh mistress.

RawPawg's picture

Already There...Nuff Said


meta-trader's picture

you can add an extra 1500/USD week after week in your income just working on the internet for a couple of hours each day... check this link... http://bit.ly/2jdTzrM

TheNuclearGenie's picture

The best way to hedge would be to buy a gym membership and steroids because very soon the stongest will eat the less fortunate, since food and water will be poisoned from nuclear war.

Socratic Dog's picture

Good idea. All them muscles will make an easy target and good BBQ.

TheMayor's picture

Buy GOLD or the stock of AUY.

doctor10's picture

the "real trainwreck" is the American Oligarchy-most of whom are so criminally compromised they now fear the American People

Spaced Out's picture

Buy silver and cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, GNT, REP, MAID, FCT, for example).

VangelV's picture

Gold is a great hedge against a market failure.  A company like Franco-Nevada or Wheaton Precious Metals, or Royal Gold will pay you a dividend while it protects you from a downturn in the stock market and will give you exposure to an asset class that should do extremely well if the S&P declines or the USD has problems.  

sgt_doom's picture

Once again, Prof. Taleb appears to be on target!


Dan Rather, King of Fake News

And why Net Neutrality is more important than ever . . .

Take a close look below at the carefully edited news clip of Lee Oswald, alleged presidential assassin of John F. Kennedy, as “hosted” by Dan Rather.

It will be halted just after the very first time Mr. Oswald beings making multiple pleas for legal representation --- as shown further down at the next youtube vid, the complete and unedited version of the midnight news conference with the beaten Oswald --- the exact time when everyone is asleep, of course, which is why few Americans in my age group even recall ever viewing this!

Typical Dan Rather, king of the Fake News.
  You could spend an entire lifetime, while we still have a semblance of net neutrality, scouring the Web for the Dan Rather Fake News version of events, and compare them to the unedited version, proving again and again and again Rather to be a complete a total liar, which is why they paid him $7 million a year to be CBS anchor; the same reason they employ Brian Williams or employed Tom Brokaw, etc. 
Fake News USA!

Did Dan Rather ever report about Pfc. Eugene B. Dinkin, who intercepted cables between the CIA station in Italy and French assassins and their rightwing fascist organization, the OAS, detailing the forthcoming assassination of President John F. Kennedy in Dallas, sometime between Nov. 22 to Nov. 28?

No, of course not!

Did Dan Rather report that Pfc. Dinkin had been shipped to Walter Reed Army Medical Center for “psychiatric evaluation” - - - that is, the highly intelligent and patriotic young Jewish-American was to awaken, strapped in a chair awaiting violent electroshocks (which would permanently damage his brain), facing former Nazi scientists laughing at having another Jew to experiment on; Nazi scientists brought to America under Operation Paper Clip by Allen Dulles?

No, of course Fake News jackal, Dan Rather, would never report this!

This is why Dan Rather was paid a fortune until he began taking himself seriously; until his twit producer and himself actually began to believe they had some connection to actual journalism --- but even then he could never get a real news story remotely correct.
  He moronically believed the news story to be President George W. Bush’s missed ANG formations, instead of the fact that Bush was fraudulently kept on ANG rosters as an officer and jet pilot --- when he never qualified for either category

Watch Mr. Fake News himself, Dan Rather:


And now watch the unedited version of Lee Oswald:


And now view the falsehood Dan Rather coveys when he falsely claimed, on Nov. 22, 1963, that President Kennedy’s head snapped forward (he was the only one allowed to view this back then), when years later we would all view the president’s head snapping backwards, from frontal kill shots!


And that’s why Dan Rather became CBS anchor, and Jim Lehrer was given that plum PBS News Hour job, etc.

And now they are once again trashing net neutrality, which Aaron Swartz fought against until they --- the DoJ team under President Obama ---
drove him to suicide.

And why today Donald Trump and his Swamp People are going after WikiLeaks’ Julian Assange --- to destroy any semblance of free press.
Meanwhile, in America, the so-called “free press” people suggest we would have free press if it was financed by the Rockefeller Foundation and the Gates Foundation and the Bradley Foundation --- such people can only be planted CIA assets, or complete idiots!

FYI:  A lady employee with the Dallas Police department in 1963 later came forward, signing a legal deposition attesting that she had observed that Lee Oswald was never allowed his legal telephone call while held in police custody.  So Mr. Oswald was never allowed legal representation, nor a telephone call before he was gunned down by CIA asset, Jack Ruby, who had previously gunned down police Officer Tippit.

The assassins who murdered President Kennedy that day, who set up the kill box and caught him in their crossfire, were Jean Rene Souetre (French assassin with the OAS), Mozes Maschkivitzan (Belgian criminal and CIA contract killer), Lazlo the Hungarian (French Foreign Legion deserter, also with the OAS) and Lucien Conein (CIA).

You will never find this out from the Fake News people.

So they took Lee Oswald to the hospital, where he quickly perished as no pain relievers were ever administered to him, exactly as they rushed Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr., in 1968 to a hospital, where years later we again learned that no pain relievers were administered to him, thus ensuring his demise!