"Trump Isn't A Trainwreck" Nassim Taleb Destroys Media Narrative, Urges "Rational" Investors To Hedge

Tyler Durden's picture

When Nassim Nicholas Taleb looks at President Donald Trump, he doesn’t see “a trainwreck.” The real trainwreck, according to the trader turned author, is “unfettered globalization." That's the real danger that members of "the resistance" should be worried about, Taleb says during an interview with Bloomberg.

While he may not be a staunch "anti-globalist", at least Trump has promised to fix some things in system that, left unchecked, will sooner or later lead to wealth accumulating disproportionately at the top end of income earners as wave after wave of corporate consolidation lines the pockets of the transnational corporate class. When he wrote about the dangers of globalization in his book “The Black Swan, “everybody cheered," Taleb reminds his host. But now, people are defining their views on globalization based on their blanket opposition to Trump, causing them to overlook an even more sinister threat to their economic well being.

Trump could still prove to be a disappointment if he ends up abandoning his promises. But Taleb rejects the narrative of Trump that “some people” - the readers of The New York Times and Washington Post - are buying into: That Trump tried to pressure former FBI Director James Comey into dropping the bureau’s investigation into Mike Flynn, and is on the verge of being impeached.

Ignoring the ceaseless fearmongering in the media, Trump isn’t really that different from other politicians, Taleb says: The main differences are “his language and how he does things in an accelerated way.”

"Trump is not an idiot. There’s a logic to Trump that you can only get if you forget about the news and you look at Trump as Trump.”

By vowing to fix America's “metastatic” tax code, Trump is on the cusp of accomplishing something truly remarkable by solving a problem 32 years in the making. Taleb also believes that Obamacare should be replaced with something “more rational." Though he stopped short of saying whether the AHCA is the right answer, he made it very clear: It's not single-payer.

“We’re not Canadians. Canada is a small country you cannot scale things up. We need something different,” Taleb says. However, Trump has made one major mistake when it comes to message: He's tried to own the market’s performance since the election. By doing so, Trump “bought at the top,” unlike Obama, who took office at the outset of an eight year bull market.

“Claiming credit for that rise in the market makes him vulnerable to a selloff.” While Tuesday's selloff was likely just a “blip," the tail risk in the market increases with each new record high in the S&P 500.

“If you own stocks without a hedge [right now], it’s not rational.”

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
TrustbutVerify's picture

When watching this Bloomberg clip I remembered why I don't watch the Bloomberg channel. This and other hosts are so biased.

Truthseeker20's picture

All this is  a show to divide and distract from the real problems i.e federal reserve, declining petrodollar, economy. 

el buitre's picture

Why not?  Trump now appears to be an Israeli firster.  Brennan is a Wahabi fanatic like Huma - her mother runs the Moslem Sisterhood.  Israel and Saudi are best buddies, a worst kept secret.  It all adds up (to a total pile of shit).  

mary mary's picture

OT?  I can't think of anyone worse for FBI DIrector than Joe Lieberman.  I don't think there's an ounce of fairness or goodness in the man.  Also, he's stupid. 

And, most of all, President Trump needs an FBI Director who is willing to lock up Democrats.  That's the point of the spear.  Lieberman will never lock up a Democrat.

Wahooo's picture

When no one else wants to lead, all that are left are the Chosen. And that is why we are in the mess we're in.

RabbitOne's picture

And I suppose you would do better as president. Think about it...

Trump is up against the gates of hell. He is not bought and owned by the big money. He is totally loathed by the press. The political elite are willing to impeach him at a moments notice for “guessed” infractions. The shadow government listens to his every move and broadcasts his every word...

Trump’s presidency was not supposed happen. Right now under hilly the USA would be going into  “lock down”. Some where right now they would busting doors down arresting right wing terrorist on made up charges (and confiscating their firearms)...

Trump moved the SCOTUS away from liberal majority. That is all we could have hoped for. They will never reduce taxes - ever (see kotlikoff senate Feb 2015). They will never reduce government that would reduce power. All we gained is four years of shouting from liberals.

Remember every liberal can be eliminated by giving them an enema...

bshirley1968's picture

Like doing better would be hard?

1. Don't surround yourself with thieving jew bankers from Goldman Sachs. 

2. Don't surround yourself with dirt bag Washington insiders already on the take.

3.  Get someone to coach you on the use of the English language.

4   Bring the troops home from the ME.

5.  Cut the MIC off at the fucking knees.

6.  So many government agencies and departments would go away with the stroke of a pen.

7.  Appoint a special prosecutor on Hillary and Bill's asses.

8.  Arrest Loretta Lynch. 

9.  Ship illegals out the country.....and the ones in prison on pain of death if they return.

10.  Ignore the fucking media......last I checked they couldn't arrest anyone or pass any laws.  Trump is a media               whore and can't stay away from it.

I could EASILY go on.  But lastly,  you quit being an arrogant prick who is too stupid to know just how stupid he is.

That was EASY!  Next?

TheLastTrump's picture

Finally, someone that can think independently of the screaming banshees we call the US media. PS_ Fuck RINO's.


"Ignoring the ceaseless fearmongering in the media, Trump isn’t really that different from other politicians, Taleb says: The main differences are “his language and how he does things in an accelerated way.”


"Trump is not an idiot. There’s a logic to Trump that you can only get if you forget about the news and you look at Trump as Trump.”

bshirley1968's picture

You mean someone that speaks the way you want to believe.  You clown worshippers have about another six months of this shit show and it's ring leader, Trump, and then it will become (even more) painfully evident that thus guy is slightly above retardation,  full of shit, and just a welfare tit suckers of the billionaire flavor.  There will always be Trumptards like you just like there were Obama worshippers.........but like they say, "You can't fix stupid."

"Trump is a MASSIVE idiot. There’s a logic to Trump that you can only get if you forget about the news and you look at Trump as chump he really is.”

There, fixed it for you.

tmosley's picture

You seem to have confused the person you are replying to with Nassim Taleb.

If you think you have a better grasp of the situation than Taleb, you should write a book on the subject. Somehow, I don't think you do, and you are instead fully submerged and capture by cognitive dissonance, which makes your replies very, very stupid, especially in that you miss many details (like the fact that your are "fixing" Taleb's comments, not those of the guy you are replying to).

Not that I expect you to be able to understand any of this. Your brain won't let you acknowledge that you might be wrong. It will just make you angrier and thus more stupid. Making you easy prey.

bshirley1968's picture

Okay, dumbass, this response is just for you.

I was replying to BOTH, since your fellow dumbass quoted the line from Taleb.

Do I have a better grasp of the situation?  Well, if what Taleb wrote represents his "grasp" then yes, yes I do.  Do I need to write a book for you and your fellow dumbasses to prove I know of what I speak?  I don't have to prove shit to you.

Let's address congnitive dissonance.  When a person ingnores the FACTS because the FACTS don't match up with what the WANT to believe, that person has a case of cognitive dissonance.....in regards to a specific topic or issue.  Does that about cover it for you, dumbass?  Well, the FACTS have indicated for a while now that Trump is a moronic idiot.  I am not going to run down the list of FACTS AGAIN for all you slow people.  Read some of my previous post.  I voted for Trump.......I WANTED Trump to do just 25% of what he promised.......I WANTED Trump to be a real American "first" President......but the FACTS are demonstrating that he is the same old bullshit we have seen for decades.  If you CAN'T see that, then "your brain won't let you acknowledge thatyou might be wrong."

Therefore........YOU are the one with cognitive dissonance......and made it easy to kick you ass.

shovelhead's picture


I get it. You want your cookie RIGHT NOW or you're going to have a temper tantrum and scream until you get your way.

arby63's picture

A general supporter of Trump isn't necessarily a "worshipper" or a Trumptard. Where do you come up with this stupid language? I haven't seen more than a handful of comments since Trump's victory that could even come close to your insinuations.

Your hyperbolic use of adjectives is ridiculous.

bshirley1968's picture

What the hell is a "general supporter"?

If you think I am the originator of this "stupid language" then you should get out more.  "Handful of comments", really?

My "hyperbolic use of adjectives" is an literary attempt to reach dead heads like you who are apparently asleep at the wheel.

"General Supporter".......

We are at war here, dead head.  If you think there is something called "general support", then you need to go back to sleep.  What needs to be supported here is TRUTH.  Not a team, a party, a person, or even a country for that matter.  We are in the fight of our national lives and no bullets are being used......yet.  The fight is for the mind......the Truth vs. the Lie.  Being able to see the Truth inspite of our personal feelings, wants, or desires is what is needed right now.  Following the lie will get us in a shooting, killing war that won't fix anything.  It will just move more power into the hands of evil people who call themselves good.

You've been a member for 6 years +?  Why?  Because you are obviously still asleep at the wheel.....general supporter.  LMAO

TheWrench's picture

And you voted for who...????

bshirley1968's picture

I voted for Trump.....you simpleton, public school reject.  What the hell does that have to do with anything?

No matter who I voted for.....the FACTS are the FACTS.  Who you voted for doesn't change TRUTH, dipshit.  I had every HOPE in the world that this candyass, sack of shit product of the crony capitalist system would be genuine and keep at least part of his word.  I knew it was a long shot.  Like I said, I had HOPE.  But I am not stupid, blind, or willing to stick my head up my ass, take the blue pill and ignore the truth.

I listed my points below in this thread......

dlweld's picture

You make a persuasive case - that you're an idiot. Maybe it's your choice of words that gives you away - not really chosen to make converts, so to what end? "For as the crackling of thorns under a pot, so is the speech of the fool: this also is vanity."

bshirley1968's picture

Nice quote.  Too bad you don't know what it means.

I am not here to make "converts".  I am here to stand for TRUTH.  Take it or leave it, I don't give a shit.  If you are so stupid that you can't see the truth today, probably not much can be done for you.

If you have some TRUTH you would like to share that has more substance than just your personal opinion, I would be interested.  Otherwise, not so much.

PitBullsRule's picture

We need to call a spade a spade.  Trump is a Con Man, he's no dummy, he's a natural born con man with exceptional talents at harvesting suckers.  He was born rich, and he spent his whole life figuring out ways to take advantage of suckers to get richer.  Thats why he went into casinos, buildings that harvest suckers, thats why he went into football, a gaming business that harvests suckers, he went into beauty pageants, a sucker deal for horny guys and beautiful women, he went into Reality TV, another sucker deal for actors with no talent, his whole life was spent suckering people into stupid deals!  He's the King of Con Men!  He's Conned the USA into electing him president!  and the USA will wind up just like all his other victims.

tmosley's picture

Finally an argument that doesn't involve "Hurr Trump is stupid". I'm not sure about your framing, but I would like you to expound on what you believe was the fate of all his "other victims". I would think that there were quite a few people who made a lot of money off of him.

He seems to really like normal people, and wants to help them in a personal way. Do you think he will now hurt the American people? For what reason?

bshirley1968's picture

Let me help you with that.

"Stupid" - having or demonstating a great lack of intelligence or common sense.

Based on the definition, he is stupid.  To think he was going to get done what he sold to the American people without at least arresting someone, demonstrated a high level of stupidity.

Dude has been a welfare case his entire life.  He will put himself first........no matter what.  Just as he has done his whole life.

If you can't see that.......then you are ssssttttuuuupppiiiddddd.

affirmed_78's picture

My hedges are bitcoin and cash.  I like the idea of gold but it's not easily tradable.

JackMeOff's picture

Who are buying these hedges?  Those are the ones who will pay this time around.

TeethVillage88s's picture

- Gold - Jewelry - Art - Bitcoin - Land - Real Estate - Foreign Currency - Silver

"If you own stocks without a hedge [right now], it’s not rational.”

I'm probably missing some kind of hedging ideas. I can't use ETF to Ultra Short or Contra-S&P 500.

juggalo1's picture

Treat Trump a Trump?  The words coming out of his mouth sound just as awful as the media spin.  Destroying ACA while instituting a massive tax cut for the rich?  Tear up trade treaties while investing heavily in the military?  What are we supposed to be comforted by?

TePikoElPozo's picture

right now, i am spending all of my disposable income on vagina... hedging, you know

Soph's picture

Nassim is spot on regarding a few things...

1) Single payer (Canadian model) health care won't work in the US. It doesn't work in Canada, it would only get worse in the US

2) Trump's ego is his worst enemy. Him claiming responsibility for the market run-up shows that combination of ego and abject stupidity that seems to often drive his comments.

Nassim seems to skate over Trump's flipping on many of his key promises...Hillary is now not a criminal and should be left alone; the wall...well, maybe not, it sounds kinda hard to build; NATO is great now; China isn't a currency manipulator, isn't dumping anything, and Xi is an all around swell guy; Obamacare and bringing the costs of healthcare down....no chance...big pharma was given a pass the day after Trump was elected (all reference to bringing drug pricing uder control was removed from the Trump website), no longer is there any talk to remove the monopolistic processes that underpin the current health system.

It does surprise me that Nassim would not touch on President Flippers flipping. Very odd.



tmosley's picture

But he was responsible for the market run up, as he was promising YUGE tax cuts, which the market liked. Now that it seems he won't be able to deliver thanks to the anti-Trump hysteria from the Dems and MSM, markets are fading. Seems like a pretty clear cause and effect.

You also need to examine his so-called "flips". They were either actual campaign promises, or circumstances changed (if you tell your child to stop doing something and he stops doing it, do you still beat him?). Other things are going slower, but that is only because of TDS, which you are contributing to with your disinformation.

Soph's picture

-- China has stopped manipulating its currency; subsidizing steel etc; dumping all forms of metals on world markets, etc; ? Trump raised these as issues and promised action. These were also some of his greatest criticisms of Obama's policies towards China. He has flipped on all and basically adapted he same strategy as Obama.

-- What part of the Hitlary should be in jail commentary did you miss? Seriously? It was a cornerstone of his cmpaing, and flipped quickly after his victory.

-- A key part of the Obamacare repeal was, according to his policies on his own website, was the reform of drug pricing and the halt to monopolistic policies that are indemic in the US health care system. These promises were removed within the first week of his victory...flip.

-- NATO: He claimed repeatedly during his campaign it was "obsolete"...that was his term. Magically, after it doing absolutely nothing, his first meeting with NATO reps saw it "no longer obsolete". Flip

And the list does of course go on and on.

Regarding the market call, heh, you pretty much made my point. I certainly wouldn't agree with your cause and effect statement as that's quite devoid of fact, however you are spot on with the timing....Trump: "I'm great, going to do great things, look at the market, its great because I'm great"...Actual Market: Time will tell, but in my experience its going to ebb and flow as it always does, and hooking oneself to that (i.e. if it does bad, it is ALSO because of you!) as a causal factor is not smart.

PitBullsRule's picture

You call it flipping.  He was never going to do any of that.  YOU WERE CONNED!  He's a con man, and your vote was what he was after.

dlweld's picture

On the ground here as a Canadian - and the health care system here works great! Don't buy into the self serving propaganda put out by the US health care vested interests who are sucking money big time out of the USA - it's sort of like a non-government tax, all that money going to the top execs of all the health care providers - most highly paid execs of any business area - billions - for what?

Soph's picture

I am a Canadian actually, and experience the travesty of our health system first hand on a daily basis.

Don't get me wrong, I am NOT saying that the US system is all unicorns and puppy dogs. It has a wealth of problems that desperately need fixing. But Canada's single payer model is absolutely not the place to look for help.

bshirley1968's picture

Been here for 6 years and still that stupid.  No, there is no hope for you.

crazybob369's picture

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Government has no fu*&ing business being involved in a private business such as health care. Furthermore, the term health care has been bastardized to mean health insurance. These are completely different topics. Health care is a private matter between a patient and physician. Insurance is (should be) protection against catastrophic loss, not a green light to go to a doctor every time you have a hangnail.

jomama's picture

Isn't a trainwreck for whom?

PitBullsRule's picture

He isn't a train wreck for the democrats, he IS a train wreck for the republicans, and the US.

tmosley's picture

Incorrect. The Democrats look like crazy people. They are on their way to third party status. Will take an act of God to turn it around.

PitBullsRule's picture

Let me help you with that bud.  Trump, is a republican.  Trump is in the process of getting impeached.  Hillary was a democrat.  She got more votes.  Her husband was a democrat, when the economy was great.  W Bush was a republican, he started two wars we did not win and are still fighting, we don't know why.  He may be the worst president we ever had.


Does that help?

shovelhead's picture

Probably impresses the hell out of your third grade pals. Nice, simple, devoid of any distracting analytical thinking.


Like, dude...Democrats Rule.

BenBache's picture

Trump plays a role.  The producers planned the course of the play long ago and the audience needs to wait and see.  I have watched prognosticators tell me what will happen for years but all those prognostications depend on reason and thinking, not play production.  The people with the really big money care about power, not money.  They use the markets to crash some people and raise up others.  Viewing markets rationally only results in taking it in the shorts every now and then.  

Aristofani's picture

well pence this week started asking people to invest in his new swamp.

Replacing Donald Trump? Mike Pence Begins Presidential Campaign “Unofficially”
Kat Daddy's picture

Many of the problems we are seeing now are directly related to the destruction of the dollar by the banking cartel.  A $15 minimum wage is still not a living wage.  Small businesses cannot pay a $15 wage and stay in business because expenses have increased.  Much of the social unrest is related to the problem created by the FED, namely, the money ain't worth shit!  A dollar today is equivelent to pennies in 1913 before the thieving scoundrels hijacked our money and economy.  There is one simple solution, nationalize the FED, ronounce the debt they hold, throw the fraudsters in Jail. 

Soph's picture

100% on the mark. Simple and effective.

decentralisedscrutinizer's picture


It’s becoming obvious that our worst economic and political problems revolve around the global hegemony of corporate cartels headquartered in the US, where their military force resides. The only effective way, now, to regain our sovereignty as citizens of a constitutional republic is to severely curtail the activities of such corporations. To remain a free nation, we have to stop granting corporate charters to every con artist that comes along and start demanding a well-defined social value in return. The "Divine Right Of Kings” should not apply to fictitious entities just because they are “Too Big To Fail”. We can't take the incorporation of private transnational banks for granted anymore. The government must be held responsible to human voters, not fictitious entities.




An omission in the US Constitution created the swamp of corporate corruption we now see surrounding our capital. It is a swamp that can't be drained at this point because the Constitution doesn’t provide a legal drain. This 28th amendment is intended to provide that drain so Congress can legally pull its plug. As a matter of political practicality we must rely on the Article 5 Constitutional Convention for which the electorate will need prior consensus to avoid preemptive state or corporate interference. This is what it will take, in plain language, to save the world; and nobody gets hurt:




28th Amendment


Corporations are not persons in any sense of the word and shall be granted only those rights and privileges that Congress deems necessary for the well-being of the People. Congress shall provide legislation defining the terms and conditions of corporate charters according to their purpose; which shall include, but are not limited to:


1, prohibitions against any corporation;


a, owning another corporation,


b, becoming economically indispensable or monopolistic, or


c, otherwise distorting the general economy;


2, prohibitions against any form of interference in the affairs of;


a, government,


b, education, or


c, news media, and


3, provisions for;


a, the auditing of standardized, current, and transparent account books, and


b, the establishment of a state and municipal-owned banking system


c, civil and criminal penalties to be suffered by corporate executives for violation of the terms of a corporate charter.




The Founders had to fight a bloody Revolutionary War to win our right to incorporate as a nation – the USA. But then, for whatever reason, our Founders granted the greediest businessmen among them unrestricted corporate charters with enough potential capital & power to compete with the individual States, smaller sovereign nations, and eventually to buy out the Federal government itself. Now that these fictitious entities own the USA and command its military infrastructure by virtue of the Federal Reserve Corporation and run it by virtue of regulatory capture, MSM propaganda, and Congressional lobbying, they’ve set their sights on the creation of an all-inclusive global financial empire. The US Constitution is the de facto “Charter” of that Empire. Only we, the people, can amend it, and in doing so, restore the Republic.


WTFUD's picture

Reckon over several years i've been one of Barry's most fervent detractors, cuss word for cuss word up there with the best. This said, Barry didn't massage NetanYahoo's Nuts in his mouth like Trump's doing, not to mention handing over the Treasury Key's to a subprime Predator. Con Man!

PitBullsRule's picture

We actually did OK with Obama.  For a black guy, he wasn't too bad.  Now we are going to see how the Jews do.  If we survive the Jews, probably the next president will be a Mexican.

undercover brother's picture

Taleb is correct by stating Obama took office at the beginning of a bull run, but said run was caused by FED monetary policy, not Obama's fiscal policy.  Obama's policies were the "trainwreck" and despite his administration borrowing $8Trillion and the Fed expanding their balance sheet by $5 Trillion and god knows how many trillions of swaps with other CB's, the economy only expanded a measly 1% a year and that's with generous and curve fitted calculations.  

Goldbugger's picture

TALEB knows  his shit!

PitBullsRule's picture

Let me get this straight for you guys.  Trump is WORSE than a train wreck.  The US stepped in the biggest pile of dog shit in American History, and you deplorables are directly at fault.  You assholes elected a con man, and if we survive this prick, we will be broke.  This is worse than the civil war, this is worse than WW2.  Right before we impeach this fucker, he is going to take revenge on us and its going to be bad.  I wouldn't be surprised if that son of a bitch drops a nuclear bomb on Russia just to fuck us over.

Thanks assholes, you really fucked us.