Gold- 6-year bear market ending here?

kimblecharting's picture

start button for kimble charting solutions gold ratio post


Is a new bull market in metals about to “Get Started?” Lets look at one indicator that is attempting to send a bullish signal, for the first time in 6-years.

Below looks at the Gold Futures/US Dollar ratio, since 1999 on a weekly basis-


Gold US dollar ratio kimble charting solutions


The Gold/King Dollar ratio broke above resistance in 2001 and a strong breakout took place. For a decade, Gold was much stronger than the US$ at (1). Gold, Silver and miners did very well in this time frame. Once the ratio broke rising support in 2011, the ratio turned lower. This is where the bear market in Gold, Silver and miners started.

Currently the ratio is attempting to do something it hasn’t in the past 6-years, which is a breakout at (2). A break above resistance is the first for the ratio since the highs back in 2011. If the ratio can keep moving higher and clear the highs of last summer, it would send the first longer-term bullish message to the metals space in years.

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Consuelo's picture



"If the ratio can keep moving higher and clear the highs of last summer,"


See the neat thing about chart-porn is, they sorta develop personalities all on their own - and they act on them too no less...!!   Amazing lives they've led since 2011, no...?

yvhmer's picture

it is possible to draw all kind of lines.Drwaing one from the "highs" before 1999 across the highs of later years the line crosses the graphline in 2002. It would have been more consistent and condusive to the argument to show the graph from 1996 onward, or even better, as of 1913. And then build a case.

Maybe the writer wants to expand on this chart below:



Silver Savior's picture

As they say, if you want to invest in gold then invest in silver. Buying gold will just eat your money up quickly. Just think how hard it would be for gold to double and how easy silver could double and so on. 

Dame Ednas Possum's picture

Yeah... good analysis.

Did you also know that a banana is an apple if it is a potato.

Green pencil.

Shoe lace.

Now we can all retire Fuckillionaires.

Silver Savior's picture

Now you are speaking my language. :)

zagzigga's picture

Wish I had thrown a thousand or two into ethereum. It shot up from $12 when bitcoin was $2k to $250 now. Yes, I know these cryptos are not backed by anything, greater fool theory, yada yada but gold's price is purely based on emotions too. 

Hikikomori's picture

Well, you can't emote gold into being - neither can you create gold with a few keystrokes.

MadHatt's picture

Id like to see someone create a bitcoin with keystrokes. 

83_vf_1100_c's picture

  As someone else mentioned in another thread... Trying to figure out AUs direction from charts in a rigged market is an exercise in futility. The paper gold guys will let you know when they want AU to shoot up. They are not quite finished stacking yet methinks.

2banana's picture

Let's see...

Runaway spending and insane debt levels with nearly every government around the world. Which one will destroy the economic system of their host country? EU? Japan? China? USA?

Literally, a dozen military flash points around the world.

Business and stock markets that make no profits running on debt and greater fools.

Housing bubbles, stocks bubbles, Bitcoin currency bubbles, etc. Almost everything is IN a bubble. Bubbles do pop eventually...where to hide, where to hide when the panicked crowds head to the exit...

And Trump wants to be the real jobs manufacturing president (not the coffee slinger jobs of obama).

That means:
Repeal obamacare
Reduce taxes - especially corporate taxes
Reduce the insane EPA (kinda check)
Leaver the Paris Accord (check)
Leave the TPP (check)
LOWER DOLLAR. Much lower

gunzeon's picture

sure would be a nice consolation prize for the money i didn't put into bitccoin

echoes's picture

That trendline has been hit 10 times looking at a daily chart. Breakout is a good sign, could turn the ship around.