"Historic" Chinese Yield Curve Inversion Flashes Recession

Tyler Durden's picture

A month ago, China 5s10s curve inverted for the first time ever, flashing warning signs of an imminent recession (but technical, liquidity factors were offered as excuses for this shift in the belly of the curve). The curve then double-inverted (with 3s10s inverting) seemingly confirming fundamental fears. And now, China's yield curve is inverted from 1Y to 10Y for the second time in history.

China's $1.7 trillion government-bond market is turning curiouser and curiouser...

The yield on China’s one-year government bond climbs 6 basis points to 3.66%, rising above the 10-year yield of 3.65%, ChinaBond data show. 

This is only the second time that the yield curve has inverted in data going back to 2006, with the first coming during a record cash crunch in June 2013.

As The Wall Street Journal recently wrote, such a “yield-curve inversion” defies normal market logic that bonds requiring a longer commitment should compensate investors with a higher return. It usually reflects investor pessimism about a country’s long-term growth and inflation prospects.

Perplexed traders and analysts offered up many excuses...

“Many of us are scratching our heads for an explanation because this kind of curve inversion is absolutely not normal,” said Wang Ming, a partner at Shanghai Yaozhi Asset Management Co., a bond fund that manages 2 billion yuan ($289.66 million) in assets.

 

“The inversion is a form of mispricing in the bond market,” said Liu Dongliang, senior analyst at China Merchants Bank . “The fact that no one is taking the bargain despite the higher yield on the five-year bond just shows how depressed investors’ mood is.”

 

“It’s really difficult to predict when the selloff or such anomalies will end because China’s bond market is reacting to the regulatory crackdown only and is no longer reflecting economic fundamentals,” said China Merchants Bank’s Mr. Liu.

But of course, the reality is - without massive and continued credit creation, there are very large questions about just how 'dynamic' Chinese growth could be and while technical flows are certainly part of the reasoning for short-end yields rising, the question is, why wouldn't the rest of the world pile in to 'reach for yield'... unless the fundamentals really did have them worried?

The nature of the inversion (higher yields, higher funding costs, and leverage pressure) is starting to reflexively impact the real economy (and hence the chances of dramatically lower growth/recession), as The FT reports Chinese corporate bond financing hit a record low in May, as a market rout discouraged new issuance while a wave of previously issued notes came due.

The combination of tight liquidity and a regulatory crackdown on leveraged investment in bonds has hammered China’s debt market in recent months.

Net corporate bond financing — new issuances less maturities — totalled negative Rmb217bn ($31bn) in May, well below the previous record low of negative Rmb89bn in February, according to data from Wind Information.

 

A “regulatory windstorm” led by China’s ambitious new banking regulator, Guo Shuqing, has targeted banks’ use of borrowed money to invest in bonds. The People’s Bank of China has also drained liquidity from the money market, making it more expensive for banks to borrow from each other to fund bond purchases.

 

“Banks’ demand for bonds has drastically reduced. The shock has been pretty large,” said Xu Hanfei, chief fixed-income analyst at China Merchants Securities in Shanghai. “Pressure has spread from the liabilities side to the asset side,” he said, referring to the impact of higher funding costs on demand for bonds.

 

“In the context of the increasing financing difficulty for bonds and non-standard (shadow bank) products, issuers of low quality are more severely impacted, and the corresponding credit risks tend to increase,” Haitong chief economist at Jiang Chao wrote this week.

Investors are also nervous about rising credit risk.

According to a survey of investors by Haitong Securities, only 5 per cent of bond investors are “optimistic” about low-rated corporate bonds. Companies cancelled or postponed 400 planned bond sales worth Rmb390bnbn in the year to May, up from Rmb286bn in cancellations a year earlier, according to Wind data.

But apart from that, we are sure everything is fine in the world's biggest/second-biggest economy.

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wisehiney's picture

FLEE TO TREASURIES!

DownWithYogaPants's picture

Lay down with dogs get up with flee(s)

wisehiney's picture

For a tiny admission you can watch the flee circus.

Just because you cannot see them does not mean they aren't there.

DownWithYogaPants's picture

Ok I like banging fat girls occasionally.  There I admitted it. Can I see the flees now?

wisehiney's picture

Maybe.

It depends on how fat and how deep the cracks are.

Even circus flees can only jump so high.

Deplorable's picture

Everyone to the lifeboats....

DownWithYogaPants's picture

They say that it was really the Olympic and not the Titanic that sunk and on purpose.  Insurance fraud don't you know.

So just like with central banking they hit the icebergs on purpose too.

Bunga Bunga's picture

Yield curve flashes some tanks in main street soon.

GodHelpAmerica's picture

China politburo, it's time to pull the plug. You milked this system for all that you could; now it's just stupid. You risk blowing up your economy, squandering hitherto economic gains, and all indications show you're pretty damn close...

So will you choose your fate or will the world choose it for you?

Dazman's picture

Who cares? Just buy stocks.

sinbad2's picture

It's simple if you think about it.

China is being economically attacked by the US, so the short term risk is greater.

The US won't be much of a threat to anyone in 10 years, so less risk for Chinese investors.

ds's picture

Affirmation of the new normal where deformed and rigged markets orbit delinked from the real economy. In China csse, it is not so much rigging as a non-independent bank hosing wild fires with liquidity. This now shows up in the inverse yield curve that will be dealt with for the next firework. Observe where liquidities are dwindling to get an indication of the next firework that will boost your bets. 

One area where they have least control is their currency. They are up against global agnostic traders and at this stage they will have to cripple their economy to fight the vigilantes with "currecy support" fluids. RMB ls just another 'fait' currency. Their own People with some weatlh despite ever tightening excahnge controls are fleeing. Do you think you know better than them ? The muppets still lingering around snake oil peddlers being smoked that the markets (in this case, the sovereign bond market) should be the microcosm of the economy or the yield curve should be at the shapes of their defunct economic models. 

peterk's picture

They said " its not normal"...."we dont know  whats happening"..

ITS CALLED A CREDIT CRUNCH.. thats whats happening..!

 

the  PBOC can try an  control the shorter end of the curve , most times,  until it gets out of hand

and they start loosing money hand over fist, then they give up. Simple

The precursor to this pressure building is what you see above, the yeild  curve on the longer end

moves  up and inverts.

This scensrio just shows  that the PBOC is loosing control  of  money markets, just like JAPAN did  recently

and  korudo said " we will allow  longer term rates to move up".. Nonsense , he didnt allow anything, he just couldnt control it, it cost to much.

FED will be  forced to raise rates as the liquid EURODOLLAR market  continues to move up.

Charvo's picture

The average Chinese person has savings, but it seems a lot of them are investing their savings in WMPs which seem to be risky products.  While the average Chinese person has savings, the average Chinese corporation has debt up to their eyeballs.  

Whenever I see yield curve inverting with the long end of the yield coming down, it means liquidity is being drained out of a system that has blown up to bubble status.  The China credit bubble definitely qualifies as a bubble.  The US debt bubble is getting there too which is why the yield curve in America is flattening.

When the massive defaults hit the fan, the best place to be will be long-term sovereigns of countries who are actually going to pay back the cash.