Trump Blamed For Slumping Gasoline Demand As Illegal Immigrants Stay Home

Tyler Durden's picture

At a time of year when gasoline demand should be soaring and inventories tumbling, neither is happening and economists, policy-makers, and politicians are perplexed. However, Barclays Capital has an idea - it's because undocumented immigrants are scared to get behind the wheel.

Gasoline demand is puking when it should be peaking in the middle of summer-driving-season...


And Inventories are surging when they should be tumbling...


So what is different this time? What could have caused this 'change'. A sudden surge in Tesla drivers? Stagnant incomes and an increasingly crushed US consumer amid higher prices at the pump? Retail worker layoffs? No, Barclays Capital has the perfect scapegoat...President Trump's immigration crackdown...

As Bloomberg reports, since President Donald Trump took office in January, the government is increasingly using routine traffic stops by local police to find and deport people without valid papers. While there’s no data tracking the group’s driving habits, some say they are staying out of their cars to avoid detection.

“Immigration policy has struck tremendous fear into the undocumented immigrant communities,” Paul Cheng, an equities research analyst at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said in an email.

That alone may have reduced gasoline use on the West Coast, where most of the undocumented immigrantsreside, by as much as 0.8 percent in the first four months, the bank estimated in May.

Just how much gasoline is used by undocumented workers isn’t known. But the populations are significant. In 2014, California had an estimated 2.35 million, and Texas had 1.65 million, data from the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan think tank, show. That’s about 6 percent of the total population of each state. The total for the U.S. is around 11 million.
Some immigrants say it’s just too risky now to get behind the wheel because U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents are targeting undocumented people identified through routine traffic stops or waiting for a bus.

“Whether it’s driving to work and school or being picked up by ICE by the corner of the house, people are just scared to pick up and leave,” said Edwin Carmona-Cruz, development director at La Raza Centro Legal, a San Francisco-based legal rights organization.

And so there you have it - the US economy is so fragile that unless it allows illegal immigrants to drive, the energy sector will collapse and drag the nation into recession?

Not everyone is convinced there is a correlation between undocumented workers and slipping gasoline demand.

Stopping all immigration by undocumented workers probably wouldn’t “move the needle” in terms of fuel demand, David Ellis, research scientist at Texas A&M University’s Transportation Institute, said by phone from College Station. “Whatever effect it does have, if at all, would be lost in the noise of the data.”

Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Economist Michael McDonough also said he’d be “surprised if it has a tangible impact.”

Finally, Dennis Gartman notes that it is gasoline that weighs most heavily upon the energy complex, and points out a shocking anomaly in prices this year (that we suspect has very little to do with illegal immigrants)...

A friend who shall remain anonymous, but Rich you know who you are... was kind enough to send us the following bit of data “stolen” from the always brilliant folks at Bespoke Research denoting the fact that in the past 13 years the price of gasoline at-the-pump has risen on average by 22% from late March into early June. Indeed, in 12 of those 13 years the price did in fact rise.

This year, however, the price since late March has fallen and although a decline of 1.8% is not material, it is certainly very interesting. To see gasoline  prices weaken right into the height of driving season tells us volumes about demand and certainly it is not rising. Certainly it is not bullish.

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Shitonya Serfs's picture

I'd pay more for gas if this were true. Gas tax for wall? Yep

Bes's picture


the real theft is in wall street and D.C.    trillions.

not some mexican painting your house.   drops in the ocean. 

man, the oligarchs sure got you to take the bait.


VinceFostersGhost's picture



it's because undocumented immigrants are scared to get behind the wheel.


Howsabout.......everyone and their dog is pumping oil right now.

Mr. Universe's picture

With the number of illegal aliens jamming our roads here in CA any relief from the normal carnage that is our highways is welcome.

NumNutt's picture

so let me get this straight, I am paying less for gasoline because of the fear that has been formented by the anti illegal immigration policies of President Trump?..........Fuck Yeah Go Trump!!!!!

Jim in MN's picture

Making Americans Grin Again

NidStyles's picture

When the average insurance premium drops then I will believe it.

Illegals can stop their living in fear by simply going back to their own country. I can't say the same for the people that belong here.

froze25's picture

Illegals should be afraid of being caught, after all they are here, ILLEGALLY!!!!! JESUS TAP DANCING Christ

The_Juggernaut's picture

President Trump is keeping drunk drivers off the road, too. How much winning can there be? MAGA!

eclectic syncretist's picture

I'd vote for him again just to enjoy the batshit crazy vaporlock meltdowns coming out of the deep state minions.

Creative_Destruct's picture

Hope all the deep-stater politicians eventually REALLY loose it, resort to hold their breath till they turn blue tantrums, and have strokes that put them permanently out of commission.

espirit's picture

So I have gone from being a mere Deplorable to an undocumented illegal immigrant because I'm driving less?

Yup, all my living costs have gone down - NOT.


I'll purchase more fuel when the need to make cocktails arises.


Creative_Destruct's picture

What can Trump NOT be blamed for? Jeeeebus F'n Cripes.

Never knew illegals were key gas demand at the margins. Guess if we made everything black-market illegal and eliminated all governmentt oversight and the Fed we'd boost aggregate demand at all the margins through the ROOF... WAIT a minute! What a concept! S'cuse the illegal immigartion... you can keep the immigration controls on the books and enforce that basic requirement... just get rid of the other bullshit...e.g. the FED.

Mr. Universe's picture

Illegal aliens are Mexico's number one asset to it's GDP. The money they send home adds more to their economy than any other single thing.

When an accident occurs around here there is a good chance one driver will either run or not have insurance, sometimes both.

Oh my, as I'm writing this I get a computer call in spanish telling me I can consolidate my home loans and debt, freaking banksters.

Lastly, The SF Bay is thought to have close to 6 million, legals? I'm betting it's closer to 9 million, that sure helps keep housing demand and prices down!

beeeeeep's picture

Illegals also don't have car insurance so if they stay off the road you're less likely to be hit by someone without insurance.  It's a total win in my book.  Shouldn't the leftists be happy that the US is burning less gas?  Geesh, you can never satisfy them.

Stuck on Zero's picture

Gasoline demand is down but are the miles driven down?  High-mileage cars are cutting into demand. And, of course, everyone in California drives electric cars.

MalteseFalcon's picture

Gasoline demand is down?
How about the declining labor participation rate?
How about the government's mandated increases in fleet mpg?
How about electric and hybrid cars?
How about debt,lower wages and Obamacare have forced Americans to even cut back on gasoline?

How about 40 years of sermonizing to Joe 6 Pack on the need to save precious energy, which was NEVER running out?
Maybe after 20 years of 1 hour+ commutes, America's love affair with cars is over?

Immigrants staying home?  Trumps fault? 
I yearn for someone to say this within earshot.

eclectic syncretist's picture

How about Trump's doing a better job of lowering the country's carbon footprint than Obama did??? LMFAO!!!

Point this out to the libtard faithful and see what kinds of meltdowns we'll get to watch.

clade7's picture

Well, Apples dont pick themselves you know...

Endgame Napoleon's picture

Let us weigh the pros and cons for most American workers when illegal immigrants do not buy as much gasoline.


1) There might be fewer jobs in convenience stores that pay minimum wage, with employees often working behind bullet-proof glass due to the number of murders of people who cannot even cover rent on their low wages unless sex and reproduction out-of-wedlock leads to subsidized rent, EBT and $6,269 Child Tax Credits to make up the difference between their low wages and living expenses.

2) Other low-wage jobs that do not cover living expenses without unearned income from things like mom's basement, Social Security retirement income or spousal income might be affected, but zero citizens will lose a job with high enough wages to cover major household bills, like rent, except a few managers.


1) Wages, in general, might go up in the bottom economic sector due to more demand for workers in a labor market not so saturated with illegal immigrant workers who almost always have welfare and taxfare due to American-born kids and multi-family housing, making it easier for them to accept rock-bottom wages.

2) Fewer jobs may require Spanish speakers due to the increased Spanish speaking-only customer base, thereby opening up a few more jobs for US citizens in their own country.

3) The mile-long lines of miserable, clogged traffic congestion around every corner, especially in slow-as-snails school zones, might absorb less of our free time and less of our grueling, hour-or-more long commute time to $10/hr churn jobs that will not even cover the dignity of rent in an independent apartment.

NumberNone's picture

More Appropriate headlines

''Working poor and legal minorities get to keep more pay thanks to Trumps immigration policies '

'US small businesses save $xx millions of dollars in fuel costs due to Trumps immigration policies.'

MSM can just keep beating the same losing horse that's fine by me.

Kidbuck's picture

More likely most folks are busted flat.

Yog Soggoth's picture

The illegals in SW Florida must not have gotten that memo because they are literally clogging our roads. Even with opec limiting their output, Iraq has stated that they had no intention of doing so to fund the rebuilding plans on the table.  

Iraq Sends Millions of Barrels of Oil to U.S. While Saudis Cut
scintillator9's picture

Miles driver per the Feds:

Gasoline Retail Sales by Refiners

Must be all those electric, hybrid cars and ride sharing services.

Jim in MN's picture

*cough* JOBS *cough*

It's really not that complicated.

shovelhead's picture

How much you charge for a mow and a trim?

shovelhead's picture

How much do you charge for a mow and trim?


alangreedspank's picture

Gotta love people legitimizing degenerate behaviours "because oligarchs".

Bes's picture

have you ever heard the saying,

"the fish rots from the head down"?

the head is rotten and you are worried about a splinter.

peippe's picture

if it were true?

when was the last news story about a full-sized van roll over with 26 injured?

been awhile, hasn't it?

#vanning #more winning

OpTwoMistic's picture

According to Fitts,  HUD spent 6  trillion on a budget of 600 million.

And they compain about the gasoline tax.  .Gov is out of conrol.

What we need is one tenth of the gov that we have.

It is Pres Trump's fault that is cloudy here today and may rain.

peippe's picture

the russians & their rain ray are to blame for that cloud cover & rain.

tilon's picture

Very true Terrorism against iinmigrants by Trump and  his gang is rampant 

beaker's picture

Textbook definition of a win-win.

thevekja's picture

Between all the statist storm troopers, illegals, texters, and plain mentally deficient drivers, who can blame people for not wanting to drive?

Our social contract is breaking down, and day by day things creep closer to Brazil. The place the cracks are becoming most obvious are on the roads and in the poor communities.

I live in a major city in the Southeast, and people are acting increasingly brazen on the roads, people have no respect for any traffic laws unless they can directly see a police car. Also our murder rate has doubled over last year, but only for a distinct portion of the population. When that starts to spill over things will get very ugly.

NoDecaf's picture

Glad you mentioned the state storm troopers, how can anyone not see it...

I mean here in NY it's so bad it's like a road hazard in itself.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Driving on a main state road the other day, we ran into a state police roadblock. Troopers were checking drivers licenses. Papers please!

thevekja's picture

Very scary stuff, especially here in the 'Land of the Free'. It will be a minor inconvenience for the plebs right up until they start putting people in detention centers. Then they will say "how did this happen?"

NidStyles's picture

If it means I am not getting t-boned by an illegal without a license and having to replace property every few months because of theft, showing my state ID that I already have on a public road is hardly an inconvenience.

You live in the Southeast, you're not dealing with this problem directly.

thevekja's picture

100% agree and upvoted, but sadly where I live the mayor has made it abundantly clear that illegals (estimated at 54000 and growing) will receive amnesty from local law enforcement. So yes, even in the southeast it has become a major issue.

It's more of a 'catch and release' program rather than a permanent solution. Its clear that the state is complicit in facilitating the massive influx of our new underclass, and will never address the problem in a meaningful way. They can't even keep violent felons off of the streets, so prosecuting employers for hiring illegals? Please...

Anyone who would trade freedom for security deserves neither

TheLastTrump's picture

Yeah right. I went thru insurance check roadblocks in Nevada in the 80's. You would think 40 years would be long enough to build some internment centers.

YourAverageJoe's picture

I've gone thru license checks before when Ford then Carter were President. None since then though.

I remember the first on we were lucky the line was long enough to clear the dope smoke and eat some breath mints before presenting my papers.

On another note, why are aren't insurance companies screaming about the drop in premium payments that result from all these illegals that suddenly stopped driving?

TheLastTrump's picture

You noticed that too >>>>


"people are acting increasingly brazen on the roads, people have no respect for any traffic laws unless they can directly see a police car"


It's a 'scofflaw' mentality, it's been growing since Ferguson 2014. CA is now not citing for many misdemeanor crimes.


Woe unto you if you fuck with me or mine while we're on the road.

Mr.BlingBling's picture

It's because we live in a lawless society. People see that the elites are exempted from following the law, and "a fish rots from the head down."

Sick Underbelly's picture

How about...maybe people can't pay for the end-destination "vacation", so they aren't driving as much, and consumption has dropped?

NidStyles's picture

This is far more likely, but the media likes to cry racism when Whites are involved.

gespiri's picture

If someone who works for that bank can make a shitty analyses like that, hell.....I can do that too!

Philo Beddoe's picture

Makes sense, we passed a lot of donkey carts hauling oranges on the I-5 when we went to visit family a few weeks ago. 

gespiri's picture

The Yellowstone supervolcano earthquakes are probably the fault of Trump or the Russians too...

tbone10's picture

Hahaha cheetohead?