Jim Paulsen: "The Bull Market Could Continue Forever"

Tyler Durden's picture

The stock market "has an awful good gig going," according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold, who appears capable of looking through the current collapse in 'hard' economic data, predicting a nirvana-like world ahead (sounding ominously like the "permanently high plateau" we've heard of before).

 

Speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, Paulsen explained:

"We've got a fully employed economy, rising real wages. We restarted the corporate earnings cycle. We've got strong confidence among business and consumers."

 

"The kick is we can do all of this without aggravating inflation and interest rates."

 

"If that's going to continue, I think the bull market could continue to forever."

It seems 'real' macro data and the yield curve disagrees for now... but what do they know...

Paulsen goes on to hedge just a little...

"Ultimately the bull market does continue until we aggravate some inflation, and until we have to raise bond yields and interest rates some more."

 

"I think that's going to happen eventually, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen anytime soon. So I think the bull probably continues through the end of this year."

As a gentle reminder, we have heard this kind of 'everything is awesome' chatter from Mr. Paulsen before...

July 14, 2008

Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist of Wells Fargo's primary investment unit, expects home prices to steady by year end, with the pace of foreclosures slackening shortly.

 

Most of the subprime debt at the center of the current crisis already has been written down by financial institutions, he notes, while many subprime borrowers who lost their homes are returning to rental units.

 

"Folks who compare this home-price cycle to the one that occurred in the early '80s obviously have short memories," Paulsen says.

 

"In the 1980s the economy was in a deep recession, mortgage rates were at 17% or more, and unemployment [was] hitting a post-Great Depression high of nearly 12%."

The bottom line, as we noted earlier, is stock market investors better hope that the bond market investors are wrong.. but then again if bond buyers are wrong and rates rise, as Greenspan warned, "that is very bad for asset prices at current equity market valuations."

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FreeShitter's picture

CTRL-P forever, he's right.

spastic_colon's picture

yes true.....as gun's n roses said "its so easy".............as long as you control the money supply and the DATA that supports it you can pretend forever.......thats why the bankers love fiat; its whatever they say it is.

spastic_colon's picture

because CPI is only 1.9% lolololol..........that's as hard to type as it is say out loud.

Richard Chesler's picture

Lost me at "Speaking on CNBC"

 

J J Pettigrew's picture

That's the game.....keeping inflation just below the ILLEGAL goal of 2%....

that way they can keep rates too loose for too long, keep the market lubed up, and have consumer prices 

go up over 20% every decade (compounding).....and they will still say there isnt enough INFLATION...

The Fed's mandate is STABLE PRICES..for them to promote inflation is VIOLATION of their mandate....but who is watching? No one.

NotApplicable's picture

Yes, but what about (((inflation)))?

Lemme guess... this is "rational exuberance?"

B-Bond's picture

Moneypenny, hand me the rating agencies dossier.

jeff montanye's picture

that's a permanent plateau platitude from paulsen.

GUS100CORRINA's picture

Jim Paulsen: "The Bull Market Could Continue Forever"

My response: While he may be right, it needs to be understood that DEBT will GROW EVEN FASTER. 

But I guess DEBT doesn't matter anymore!!!

LawsofPhysics's picture

Debt doesn't matter, especially debt that can never be paid back...

...INFLATION IN REAL TERMS ON THE OTHER HAND...

 

"Full Faith and Credit"

thunderkiss's picture

Alright boys, we've hit the top now...

dark pools of soros's picture

thats just what your avatar pic says... when will see the bottom?

Mementoil's picture

There's no such thing as a free lunch.
If there is very little growth in GDP and yet the stock market keeps rising that means we already have inflation.
It may not be reflected in the fabricated CPI, but people are feeling it in their pockets, and eventually the precious metals will reflect that as well.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, but not paper metals.  Paper/digital everything will go bidless.

yogibear's picture

Infinite debt and printing in a finite world.

Expect the Fed to do at least a $200 billion/month QE.

The Federal Reserve cannot stop. It's very scared of the outcome if they would normalize markets.

So it's emergency intervention for our lifetime.

Consuelo's picture

 

 

GREAT catch there Haus.    'But we cannot guarantee purchasing power'...

I mean, there it is in all its stark, naked glory - the Truth...!!!

And I wonder what a $20 bill will purchase in the grocery story today, or on your insurance bill, or at the theatre, or anywhere else, compared to the date in which Mr. Greenspan made his remarks in 2005...?

drgizmo's picture

I would simply say this ... if you disregard both logic and reason in our analysis... maybe ... if everyone is "insane" maybeeeee...which would make the "market"  also insane ...

I would also say if the "market fails to use math /logic and reason... it can fail at any time for any "reason" and there is no way to predict it ... because we can NOT use... logic / history / math ... common sense or reason...how would we see it...now it is all emotional and "animal spirits " with out sanity there is no system.  

The questions is... is a insane market imortal ...we will soon see...or not!

Eager Beaver's picture

Yeah, it will continue "forever", right up until it doesn't.

lilmac929's picture

Either...

(1) people really are this stupid and have zero comprehension of emotional intelligence and their bias that blinds them from anything other than fairytale land because reality is too scary

or...

(2)  people really aren't this stupid and they're just straight up liars and thieves

 

I struggle to decide which one is worse

Kidbuck's picture

The fed can fuck the buck and bleed our purchasing power forever?

GreatUncle's picture

They have always been doing CTRL-P since forever but in 2008 the size of the CTRL-P became to big to hide.

His comments is a realisation and another truth "they can never hide it again".

So at what point does the population lynch bankers on taxpayer bailouts of billions start getting hung?

He is also right again they can do it until they can do it no more but that is kind of obvious.

In this though the "no more" is when the bottom becomes so poor  through being deflated away and the violence that will definitley ensue.

A little insight for him, as they are making it worse anyhow how long would it take if they stopped today to correct itself?

The time it takes to restore the size of the real economy to support the level of debt ...

That is no wars permitting likely a century or more and way to long.

AR15AU's picture

yes it can, just ask Maduro!

goose3's picture

We have reached a permanently high plateau!

spastic_colon's picture

beat me to it............

goose3's picture

I saw this article and the very first thought I had was "he's top-ticked the market."  

BandGap's picture

Same here. A few more people echoing this sentiment and we have the peak secured. Now we pile into the wagon for the ride down.

http://photobucket.com/gallery/user/SithDrummer/media/bWVkaWFJZDozNDI1NT...

CJgipper's picture

And the FED will be there to clean you out.... again.

Osmium's picture

When a handful of institutions own all of the assets, why would they ever sell?

847328_3527's picture

..and esp when they only go up!

taketheredpill's picture

 

So time to buy S&P500 since the fair value for the index is Infinity.

 

 

Bemused Observer's picture

Hey Paulsen...does what you said even make sense to you? Say it again to yourself, real slow...

 

See what I mean? Yeah, pretty ridiculous, I know. Get a grip, dude.

eclectic syncretist's picture

Maybe he believes in perpetual motion machines and that infinite resources and services can exist in a finite world.

Rebelrebel7's picture

I had no idea that people get paid so much for LYING. That was hilarious! I feel sorry for his family. It must be completely embarrassing for them!

buzzsaw99's picture

he sounds like an effing retard.

and until we have to raise bond yields and interest rates some more...

wtf??

you went full retard.  never go full retard.

LawsofPhysics's picture

"market"...

...LMFAO!!!!

spastic_colon's picture

anytime anyone uses the word "folks" i wanna puke.........they make it obvious who's team they're on.

agstacks's picture

So is it forever, or just through the next 6 months? What a clown. 

Rainman's picture

filed under  ' This Time Is Different ( circa 1999 ) '

CJgipper's picture

I think it IS different.  They're trapped in the zero bound and will print any amount of USD necessary to protect pensions and the US debt.

AlphaSeraph's picture

I didn't think hyperinflation was considered a bull market. Nominal gainz bitches.

Rebelrebel7's picture

Maybe that's the secret threat! Buy at higher prices or we launch nuclear war ending civilization!

buzzsaw99's picture

i know i don't have to explain to anyone here why that quote is idiotic six ways to sunday.  i could write a book on the idiocy of that small blurb alone.

Son of Captain Nemo's picture

What a wonderful blend of oxycontin, Trintellix and "crack" does for the "thought processes" of the high end Hedge Fund investor!

AND THOSE WHO FOLLOW "HIM"!!...

Isn't Big Pharma swell?!!!

buzzsaw99's picture

i'll go ahead and list a couple just because i'm bored.

 

1) raising the fed fund rate does nothing.  even an imbecile can see that by now.

2) we?  who the fuck is we?  and just how in the hell is "we" going to raise bond interest rates?

order66's picture

That's only true if people are willing to establish new positions at higher and higher valuations with diminishing future returns forever.

autofixer's picture

Forever?  The only thing "forever" is these clowns show up and blabber just before all hell breaks loose.  

rp2016's picture

https://just-a-thought-from-thinair.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-staircase-e...

ZH, this staircase to hell will be very hard to deal with. It will be impossible to deal with... And, Trump is acting like another one of them ... If Trump does not pull the plug.. it is over...

What are you willing to do?

Do you have a game plan or will you just keep reporting this plunder.