Only Employment Gains In The Past Year: Those With A High School Diploma Or Lower

Tyler Durden's picture

In its latest, July, snapshot of the US economy, the NY Fed observed something startling, and which hasn't received much discussion in the media: when looking at the June report, over the past year the only employment gains have gone to less educated Americans, or as the NY Fed puts it, "over the last year, the employment-to-population ratio has risen for the less educated." It added that "for those with less than a high school degree and for high school graduates, the employment-to-population ratio rose by 0.4 percentage point and 0.9 percentage point, respectively.

Meanwhile, "the employment-to-population ratio for the more highly educated has been on a downward trend, with the ratio for those with a college degree 0.2% percentage point lower in June relative to a year ago."

Now that we have the July data we can update the NY Fed data, and find... more of the same: as the chart below shows, while on both a 1-month and 1-year basis, the Employment-to-Population ratio for workers with "some college" or "a bachelor's degree and higher" declined or remained flat again, the biggest increase on both a 1-month and 1-year basis was for those with "less than a high school diploma" or "high school" graduates.

In retrospect, this should not come as a surprise: in an economy where wage growth is "inexplicably" failing to materialize, in which waiters and bartenders were the hottest hiring sector last month and over the past 7 years, and where part-time workers soared in July, it makes sense that the best job prospects are for those who never went to college. As for the adverse structural consequences for the US economy as a result of lack of demand for those with a college education, that is self-explanatory and is a giant hint as to the unprecedented collapse in US economic productivity in recent years.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Shizzmoney's picture

All that debt for a degree and no job.  Suckers!

order66's picture

Good luck getting a high paying job without a degree.

Creepy_Azz_Crackaah's picture

Doesn't the bartending school diploma count as an advanced degree? Total bullshit story. LOADS of advanced degree jobs out there being filled...

Countrybunkererd's picture

Modern Medieval Economy.  What to buy, what to buy...

WTFRLY's picture

It's like the bond market, they are just flattening out the curve lol. It's like Social QE.

847328_3527's picture

The black kids can look forward to a fat AA government job irregardless of their grades.


Dumb pimply white kids are pretty much doomed to poverty, opioids and a high suicide rate.

ne-tiger's picture

Way to go, rednecks, we are winning, biiigly, yuuugely!

Blue Snowflake's picture


Creepy_Azz_Crackaah's picture

My monies? Aloen? So you are in the no high school degree category.

Countrybunkererd's picture

Can't afford to live but they have their cell "fooen" and data plan.  My priorities are making me unhappy and poor, but I must have my priorities! 

Got The Wrong No's picture

Obviously those comments trigger a blue snowflake. 

HalinCA's picture

A proud to be one blue snowflake.  The most amusing kind.

Silver Savior's picture

But how do you get a job with a degree? You will be overqualified and shut out of so much opportunity. lol.

clade7's picture

 Nonsense!  Now a days they are teaching 5th graders how to 'lip roll' a rubber over a banana!  Sure a College Grad has advanced skills and can take a zuchinni up the tailpipe, while jerking off two gerkins and sucking on a pepper. but really?  Advanced skills?  Thats introductory "Pat my head and rub my tummy" preschool 101 bullshit!


How much money Net is there in that for an immediate and easy payback for a College degree?  Making money is all about 'on the street' economics! 


Or for the co-signer folks to brag?    "My kid started out with greenbeans, and worked their way up to zuchinnis?"  All the while doing it for free to the Professors in after hour 'tutelage extra credit' sessions?  May as well drop out in the 4th grade and deliver papers or pick blueberries!!  Any old kid now a days can stuff a watermellon up they ass, or Lip roll a Hefty bag over a bale of hay...


I saw  a highschool kid longcocking a trombone at bandcamp just this week!  Had a tuba sticking out his ass even!  Multitasking!


Unless you like the thought of ramming your full grown zuchinni up somebody elses rectum, or having it performed upon yourself...then OK, sure, get a major in PoliSci or register for Law school....

Proofreder's picture

You seem filled with angry jealousy 

or something real sick.  Please get treatment before going into the street again.

No, not sarcasm.

918pigpen's picture


I know many people who make 100k plus a year without one and some didn't graduate high school.

I myself was in that 100+ until I retired.

On the other hand I know a few people who have Masters Degrees and one Friend just got her Doctorate and they have yet to make 100k

Today's college education ain't a good investment!!

Unless you are going into a specialized field that requires higher learning.

A fucking Degree don't make you successful.  We make ourselves successful

And a few of my friends are worth millions with only a High School Diploma.

Lumpenproletarier's picture

"Good luck getting a high paying job without a degree."

And you'd better have an excellent GPA, too. (Seems nobody ever bothers to point that out.)

barysenter's picture

Higher indoctrination is a scam.

Silver Savior's picture

I think they wanted to fit in and party more than anything. Isn't that what most higher education folk do? I just went to a college town to party. Did not take any classes. I feel really good about that now. There are no jobs and I have no debt.

Kidbuck's picture

If a student takes enough difficult courses he can improve his mind and himself immeasurably. Only that student can judge what self improvement is worth. For centuries college was never meant to be job training.

On the other hand, anything, such as student loans and research funding, that the government takes an active role in gets fucked up beyond all measure.

thevekja's picture

Planned obsolescence of human labor

Ricki13th's picture

Dam these kinds of jobs are what Trump is boasting about?

Silver Savior's picture

Yeah it's pretty shitty. Let's see how many people he can fool.

Got The Wrong No's picture

Obama did the same thing. I bet you thought he was the messiah.

kbohip's picture

No.  These part-time jobs are the kind Obamacare has brought.

dark pools of soros's picture

Another misleading chart/article on neo-ZH

obviously summer jobs switched to paying high school grads instead of college grads that cashed in their FANG stocks and went on vacations

Silver Savior's picture

Well yeah it makes sense because employers are so cheap they have to stretch those dollars anywhere they can. I think they are starting to figure out that lowering their education standards is ok it will get them by. 

What are these degrees anyway? It's just a more in-depth set up. But do people really need this to perform jobs in the real world? Often times no. What good is algebra aside from a few select applications. I don't go out in real life and have algebra problems to solve. Like never! The only thing that even comes close is process of elimination.

I don't see where the value from a degree comes from. These people with degrees work in retail with me and a lot of them are complete morons. 

dark pools of soros's picture

They learn to think they are more privileged than others while pleasing their betters, which is the only trait needed for middle management

Silver Savior's picture

That is the most educated credible statement of the week. Up vote time! 

order66's picture

I bet all these low skill workers can't wait to be interviewed by automated bots:


barysenter's picture

Crime pays and crime doesn't make these bogus reports.

insanelysane's picture

So I ask you, Is it better mentally for a person to

Screw off in high school, barely get a diploma or GED, and then end up working as waitstaff?

Go to high school, get diploma, go to college, get diploma, and then end up working as waitstaff?

Silver Savior's picture

The only difference is if you chose number 2 you will not only be a member of waitstaff but you will be in a world of hurt with debt and this is not just credit card debt but the most toxic form of debt that you would be hard pressed to get away from. 

Rebelrebel7's picture

Not going through the system is better. Less brainwashing and propaganda. If I had school age children now, there is absolutely NO way that I would subject them to the fascis,t demented, education system in our country!

It's taken decades to deprogram myself from all of the bullshit!

Rebelrebel7's picture

The education system is bullshit! The proof is in the pudding! The more "educated" our society has become, the more impoverished, incompetent, less civilized, and fascist it has become. Nevermind reality of teachers insisting that children be placed on dangerous medication PROVEN not to work or be removed from their families! 

They can't even claim that increased time in school results in increased knowledge! Look at what has happened to general knowledge and critical thinking with the increased school time!

It's all about control and humiliation!

Rebelrebel7's picture

Is the giant hint that the entire economy would collapse if the truth of what is actually taking place were suddenly revealed to the public?

 Carneigi Mellon university and a California university are listed as defense contractors receiving DoD subsidies! How many other universities are? 190,000 corporations receive them, including telecoms, media, and tech! $323 billion in contracts are dispersed to the 190,000 corporations!

Silver Savior's picture

So that's how they stay afloat!

Silver Savior's picture

I love it when employers say one is overqualified.  But what if I wanted to work below my capacity and at a little lower rate? Less is more. Why would I put myself in say a management position in retail when I value my Heath and the stress would be taxing or deadly? I am 13 years into retail and I don't want management positions but I can't do a variety of jobs in retail because I get rejected. 

I suppose I could somehow try for senior management and put my feet up on a desk and tell everyone to fuck off and leave me alone like they do. I would feel kind of bad for being a dick but it will be ok. I will use my inflated pay to buy more silver bars and stare at them.

Goldennutz's picture

"Over qualified" means you are likely smarter than your boss and THAT is unacceptable.

Stormtrooper's picture

Guess I better scratch that engineering degree and MBA off of my resume and list my former positions as ditch digger to have a better chance at finding a job.

Proofreder's picture

also very important to list qualifications as ditch filler and assistant co-foreman.

ToSoft4Truth's picture

Trump is working on the high-paying wall building jobs.  Hang on a little longer.... 6 months max. 



Mimir's picture

You are being naive. He just promised, yet another time, to cut the price of the wall and he still doesn't have anybody to pay for the thing.

Silver Savior's picture

What do people do with all that money if they did get a good paying job say 100k plus? Use it to pay debt and buy cheap shit and throw it in a storage unit which you pay on too? Buy a house 10 times too big and pay enough property taxes to make the gov blush? Buy a $70k car and have it be worth 5k? I mean I don't get it. 

Silver Savior's picture

You have to respect bartenders though. From my  semi cloudy observations late at night I see they have a shitty job. I mean how do they put up with all these jackasses all night and keep a smile on their face? Like what if they get the dumbass drunk they don't want to talk to but he sits at the bar all night? That would be a major pain in the ass. Bartending is the most skilled labor. They should be paid 100k starting and tips!

Bemused Observer's picture

If I owned a business, I'd seriously think about recruiting employees while they're in high school, maybe start up a job fair thing at the school so I could get a good look at them, see which ones looked most promising. Then lure them before they've been completely poisoned by higher education.

I'd pay them decent, and give them the chance to avoid the whole college-debt trap by 'passing Go' and coming straight to work for me and learning some USEFUL skills for FREE, as part of the on-the-job training. Several years of work experience, and a reference from me would be far more valuable in the future than a degree in Feminist Studies that cost you 60 thousand dollars. If you have some basic carpentry, plumbing or electrical skills, you can bypass that whole "You want fries with that?", 7 dollar an hour soul-sucking ordeal, and make some real coin doing local handyman jobs on your own schedule. Off the books, if you wish.


And don't can ALWAYS go back to school if you really, really want to. The schools will be there, and there are no age limits. It's not as if these kids HAVE to go RIGHT NOW, straight outta high school.

We need to start actively discouraging kids to go right into college from high school...they ought to have a several-years buffer, spent out in the world, working at some starter job, or even just bumming around, before they are allowed to enroll. This will make them far less susceptible to these colleges and their sales pitches. They will have had the chance to see for themselves that there are NO JOBS for Feminist Studies majors out there. Right now, these kids are coming out of an over-protected parental environment and going straight into another over-protected environment. They are clueless about how the world actually functions, so of course they are going to make awful choices in the courses they take, and the 'careers' they seek.

I guarnatee you, there would be a significant difference in the types of courses enrolled in by our little hot-house flowers, and the kinds of courses that students with some life experience would invest their hard-earned money in. A real big difference. But it is much, much easier to oversell to that first group, which is why those colleges want them young and naive.