The Market Has Never Done This Before

Tyler Durden's picture

A fascinating statistic about the current no-vol state of the market, courtesy of Deutsche's Jim Reid, who points out that the last time we had 13 consecutive days in which the S&P moved less than 0.3% in either direction was... never:

... all you really need to know about markets at the moment is that yesterday's move in the S&P 500 (+0.16%) added to the record daily run of less than 0.3% moves in either direction. It’s now 13 days since we had a larger move using daily data back to 1927. The second longest streak of this length was of 10 days which has happened twice in history. The most recent time was in England's solitary football World Cup winning year (06 Jan 1966 - 19 Jan 1966), and the other between 15 Nov 1961 and 29 Nov 1961. So these continue to be remarkable financial times we are living through.

Visually:

Another way of showing the above is with the S&P's closing prints over the same period: 2474, 2473, 2473, 2470, 2477, 2478, 2475, 2472, 2470, 2476, 2478, 2472, 2477, 2481

And here is some more from Reid:

To put the steady but relentless rally in the S&P in context, it is now 73 trading days since the S&P increased by more than 1% in any one day. Give it another 7 days and we will beat the prior record set back in November 06 and March 07. Although, given the current lull in the activity (VIX now back to below 10), we might even get close to the 100 day record set back in mid-July 1995 to early Dec 1995.

Finally, this from BofA:

Earlier this year, the Dow recorded its lowest one-month trading range since 1900, and last summer the S&P traded within a 1.77% range for 42 consecutive days, the tightest such streak in history (the lull was ultimately broken on 9-Sep-16, when the S&P 500 dropped 2.45% on ECB policy, North Korea, and a fear of higher rates in the US).

This is just another piece of evidence for Canaccord's thesis that traders are not complacent, they are simply "paralyzed."

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Pleb_From_Windsorstan's picture

Intrinsic value of cryptos is 0/unknown. Further they are not battle tested unlike Gold and Silver.

So, cryptos are fiat any fool can create one. The banksters will create one of their and pass it of as revolution and sheep will lap on to it.

spanish inquisition's picture

I got questions. Didn't they just split Bitcoin, doubling the amount that can be created? When will the next fork be? Sounds very fiat-y. Can you make money at it? Yes.

As it becomes more difficult to mine a Biitcoin, the costs rise. The miners (bankers) are looking for a new income stream. You should be able to calculation the cost of electricity and computation and figure out when the next "fork" for the good of crypto currencies will be.

CrabbyR's picture

The level of complexity to mine crypto and safely store and use cryto is beyond the ability of 80% of the general population , so it needs to change a lot before it becomes

practical and widely accepted.

AlphaSeraph's picture

Fiat is a designation meaning by "decree", law. It is government money. Bitcoin is not fiat.

Disclaimer: I have no bitcoin. 

MsCreant's picture

Has the Government started to have rules and regs about it? If so, is that not a kind of "passive decree?" Real question. It may not be THE Fiat, but a Fiat?

AlphaSeraph's picture

Fiat is a designation meaning by "decree", law. It is government money. Bitcoin is not fiat.

Disclaimer: I have no bitcoin. 

THEBORG's picture

WE are the Borg, all your crypto currencies are vulnerable. A quantum computer can hack Bitocoin in 2 minutes, and there are several quantum computers on planet earth already. All we need is a rogue employee woroking at nite to hack bitcoin and watch the crypto market vaporize!! Spread the word! Kill crypto!

TradingTroll's picture

Except it's decelerating. Watch the Schiff-Kaiser clip on ZH today. Out of 500 top retailers only 3 accept Bitcoin now. Was 5 last year.

Librarian's picture

I was thinking that your safe play might have been ramen noodles.

Too-Big-to-Bail's picture

South of Houston, we have a problem

LawsofPhysics's picture

"Market"...

LMFAO!!!!!

That is THE problem you stupid fuck, there is no mechanism for true price discovery...

Royotoyo's picture

I was just having this conversation with my wife. She said, "The market is broken."  But that's not quite right, there simply is no market.

PT's picture

Is it too late to sell VIX options?  That'll make the fucker move.

FredGSanford.'s picture

See!! It really is different this time!!

Hikikomori's picture

The End Times have arrived!

Too-Big-to-Bail's picture

"Trust has brought us here together to build this market, but once trust is lost we algo"

PT's picture

You deserve lots of green arrows for that one.  Here.  Have another one from me.

Eagle40's picture

I like your picture of the Jew Banker. Very funny..????

Racer's picture

There are no "traders", there are no "markets", there are only machines and now they've been switched to trickle charge mode - saves the printing machine......

JackMeOff's picture

When you socialize Monetary Policy, this are the results

PT's picture

Since when has Monetary Policy ever been Socialized???

Debt gets Socialized.  The Chosen Few's losses get Socialized.  Monetary Policy was always about the slow and relentless theft of property and labour, and enslavement of the many by the few.

moorewasthebestbond's picture

Gridlock is good (for the people) in politics.

 

Why not the stock market?

RozKo's picture

Does this mean that Wile E. Coyote has just run off the cliff and is now waving to us before he falls? 

Sizzurp's picture

Never short a dull market.

melodious's picture

Best post on here.  You are wise.

Rebelrebel7's picture

It's great to wake up laughing! Thanks Tyler! 

tangent's picture

A flat price in a flat profitability environment. Interesting.

Last of the Middle Class's picture

It's just so hard to pull that big thick QE dick out of the market when she's so wet, willing and hitting new highs every day.

lakecity55's picture

It's pretty good after you get past the used part.

 

Consuelo's picture

 

 

"Sleep, Spiderman..."

flea's picture

Wait, wait ... S&P500 down $1.18 to $2479 (off 0.05%).

Can anyone say ... CORRECTION!

World citizen's picture

It smells like August market lol. Like many other times in the past, low volumes and small changes...

 

Sky flyer's picture

Dow now slightly green. Trading day is over. Autopilot is turned on. Going to watch some gunsmoke reruns.

Haitian Snackout's picture

I would suggest " Island in the desert ". A two part episode about a banker after QE was turned off.

Eagle40's picture

Now that was funny and so true. ????

Haitian Snackout's picture

I didn't think too many people would remember that one. But I watch it once in a while on YT. I try to think of him as a Banker or a GS Broker. 

Deep_Out-of-the-Money's picture

Vol is going negative.

BustainMovealota's picture

Never done that like the last 20 times its never done that.

melodious's picture

this is the first time it has done 21 times  be exact  lol

JackMeOff's picture

Hedge funds made the market in the past 7 years, not this summer.  All of the fund managers are in the Hamptons or MV/ACK and like where they stand for the month of August.

melodious's picture

The rich and powerful are still in control of the markets. Do not let this quiet time fool you. The markets will crash when they decide to crash them. Just ask Shepwave and the Real Fly.

melodious's picture

algorithms you don't understand them.  I have worked computers for a long time and you are giving too much credit to those programs. They are responsive only. It is really simple.  You are losing in the markets because you do not know how to trade or invest. The only analyst who seems to get this on Zerohedge is Shepwave and maybe the Real Fly.

melodious's picture

algorithms you don't understand them.  I have worked computers for a long time and you are giving too much credit to those programs. They are responsive only. It is really simple.  You are losing in the markets because you do not know how to trade or invest. The only analyst who seems to get this on Zerohedge is Shepwave and maybe the Real Fly.

MadhyaBharatx's picture

Your post doesn't make sense.  Yes shepwave is a popular one on Hedge.

John Beau's picture

Those are two good market writers. Shepwave is more of an analyst. A lot of analysts and market commentators make their money off of fear. Shepwave does not do that and that plays the largest factor into why they are correct on a consistent basis.