How A Renewed Korean Conflict Is Going To Be Felt Around The Globe

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by James Durso via TheHill.com,

The United States and the Republic of South Korea have, until now, had identical interests in the Korean peninsula: defending against a North Korean attack on the South, and keeping the North’s regime at bay until it collapsed from internal contradictions.

The inevitable ability of North Korea to hit North America with a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) means the U.S. has to consider striking North Korea preventively, regardless of the casualties in South Korea because no U.S. President will trade San Francisco for Seoul.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) recently said President Trump told him,

"If there’s going to be a war to stop [Kim Jong Un], it will be over there. If thousands die, they’re going to die over there. They’re not going to die here.”

And National security adviser H.R. McMaster has stated the U.S. is planning a “preventive war” against North Korea.

What will the president have to consider before he launches a preventative attack on North Korea?

Casualties in an attack of the North on the South are estimated at 100,000 in Seoul in the first 24 hours. The U.S. military estimates 200,000-300,000 South Korean and U.S. military casualties within 90 days, and even more civilian deaths, many of which may be caused not by North Korean weapons but the collapse of the electric power grid, and the water, transport and sewer systems in a city with one of the highest population densities in the world. Half of the South’s population of over 50 million lives in the Seoul Capital Area, which produces almost half of the country’s gross domestic product.

The effects would be felt worldwide and immediately as South Korea is a vital part of the global supply chain for high technology equipment, both as end products and parts used by other manufactures. Nor is it likely companies in other countries can quickly pick up the slack: it is estimated that the replacement cost of the display manufacturing capability of Samsung and rival LG will top $50 billion. In the words of one analyst, “If Korea is hit by a missile, all electronics production will stop.”

Shipping in the nearby Sea of Japan, East China Sea, and Yellow Sea will halt as there may no longer be a destination for the cargo, and spiking maritime insurance rates, if insurance can be had, will make most voyages unprofitable. Shipping to and from major Chinese ports such as Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, and Tianjin will halt and disrupt worldwide supply chains. Ships returning to China will have to anchor until the crisis abates, at a cost to the shipping lines (and customers). Most of Japan’s major ports are on the east coast of the main island, Honshu, and will be open for business, though with the threat of North Korean missiles early in the conflict.  

South Korea imports 98 percent of its fossil fuels and relies exclusively on tankers for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil. China will also be affected as it is the world’s largest net importer of crude oil and has LNG regasification terminals at Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, and Tianjin. Crude and LNG tankers enroute will have to be rerouted, but the product can probably be sold on the spot market.

The airspace surrounding the Korea Peninsula and northeast China will be closed and will affect passenger and cargo traffic, including at Beijing, the world’s second busiest airport, and Shanghai, the ninth busiest. Eastward traffic to the region will slow and will hit the hub airport, Dubai, which is also a major tourist destination for Asia. Japan will lose eastbound air traffic, but westward traffic from the U.S. less so.

South Korea imports most of its food as it has little arable land. The U.S. is its largest supplier, providing mostly corn, meat, hides, soybeans, milling wheat, and cotton, so the U.S. farm sector will sag if the crisis happens when produce is on the way to market.

Of the local allies, Japan may be more disposed to action as it isn’t – literally – on the front line and it has already deployed the PATRIOT surface-to-air interceptor and the AEGIS ship-based anti-ballistic missile system, and it may install the AEGIS Ashore system or the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. South Korea will be more reticent as it will absorb the initial blows and the only air defense missiles on its territory, the THAAD system, were deployed by the U.S. in the spring of 2017.

President Trump will have to weigh Asia’s regional stability and homeland security when making the toughest call since President Truman OK’d the use of nuclear weapons in Japan in 1945.

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FIAT CON's picture

You mean "pre-emtive attack". 

Internet-is-Beast's picture

This just shows how useless and worthless the US government has become. Another crisis MANUFACTURED OUT OF WHOLE CLOTH by the neocons. It used to be that some sort of provocation was needed to start a war. Now we have the Nuland strategy. Recall how Victoria was boasting about having spent $5 billion to get war going in Ukraine? Here, we are not even doing that. Does anyone remember how this crisis with NK started? I sure as hell don't remember. All I know is that they are our new enemy and we must crush them.

I wonder if the neocons get paid under the table for fomenting wars. (It is ALWAYS the same fucking people.)

Our government has outlived its usefulness. It has become a net negative. Neocons are the worst of war criminals.

Put down the beer, Americans. Man up and tell your feminist wives to clean house and wash the dishes.

Practical Cogitator's picture

The "Neocons" have been renamed to reflect reality:  The Khazarian Ziocons.  

 

As during the 8-9th centuries in Southern Russia, these now Fake Hebrews are a royal pain in the ass.  They tend to take over everything and everyone in sight, before despensing with all the accumulated useless eaters.

philipat's picture

The existing plan of leaving "DPRK" alone until it collapses under its own inertia sounds like a good plan to me. It's technology is primitive and it doesn't have the capability, or intent, to harm anyone. At the root of the rhetoric is simply a desire by Kim not to be come another Iraq or Libya?

Kotzbomber747's picture

"The airspace surrounding the Korea Peninsula and northeast China will be closed and will affect passenger and cargo traffic, including at Beijing, the world’s second busiest airport, and Shanghai, the ninth busiest. Eastward traffic to the region will slow and will hit the hub airport, Dubai, which is also a major tourist destination for Asia. Japan will lose eastbound air traffic, but westward traffic from the U.S. less so."

So what would be the problem? Fuck the so-called "ME3" (=airlines from Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi) and fuck China.

OceanX's picture

"So what would be the problem?"

Well, an Item I ordered coming out of Asia was $486 when I place my order two days ago.  Yesterday, I received an email stating it was not in inventory and was on 'backorder'  It will be shipped when received.  Fortunately, my card payment was processed for the $486.  Items new price is $599 ...maybe that is the kind of price inflation the CBs are looking for...

Harry Lightning's picture

So when a country repeatedly threatens to attack another country with nuclear weapons, when tat same country continues to display publicly its calabilities to deliver weapons through missile systems, when we know from prior verified tests that this country also has nuclear weaponry that has been estmmated to be refined to the point where it is in deliverable weapon form...when all this is presented to you, you still want to claim this is a manufactured crisis ? 

Put down the crack pipe and go get an adult.

Pacman7293's picture

I agree. Why didn't the Tibetans develop nukes to deal with China? Because they were humble enough to see themselves as inferior in that way to the Chinese. So should NK, they should be humble to America. Not pick a fight with the emperor.

DelusionsCrowded's picture

Is there a SouthPark double episode in this somewhere ?

AurorusBorealus's picture

Exactly.  The U.S. continually threatens N. Korea, has nuclear weapons, the capacity to deliver those weapons, has a history of using those weapons on its enemies, has attacked or invaded nearly 80 sovereign nations since the end of WWII,  has firebombed N. Korea, killing more than 1 million civilians, and has broken every item in the treaty that it agreed to in 1994.

This is not a crisis manufactured by anyone other than imperial Washington.

Pacman7293's picture

Dude. There really are bad guys out there. Not everyone evil lives in America.

Musum's picture

"Dude. There really are bad guys out there. Not everyone evil lives in America."

Funny thing is, that's what Washington says every time. And then it turns out the bad guys are us. Again.

Megaton Jim's picture

Most evil resides in Israel!

AurorusBorealus's picture

The crisis started when Korea was divided after World War II.  Russia declared war on Japan in the waning months of hte war and moved into northern Korea.  In the post-war world, Russia, with assistance from Red Communists, who held northern China, established a Communist government in the north.  The south of Korea was still under Japanese control, which fell to the U.S. after the surrender of Japan.

In 1950, North Korea invaded South Korea to unify the peninsula.  They viewed the U.S. as colonial usurpers.  In a sense, their view was not so different from that of many South Koreans, but the South Koreans had no desire to replace U.S. (rather benign) leadership for Russian and Chinese Communist puppet-masters.  In the initial phase of the war, South Korean forces were pushed back to a small area in the far south around the port of Pusan.  Under the command of MacArthur, the U.S. assembled two amphibious groups.  One reinforced the S. Korean position around Pusan; the other invaded near Seoul at Incheon.  The N. Korean forces in S. Korea were cut off and mostly destroyed piecemeal in retreat.

 MacArthur ignored threats from China not to cross the border (38th parallel) between N. Korea and S  Korea.  When he approached the river that marks the border between Korea and China, China attacked MacArthur's forces, driving them back to the original boundary between north and south.  Throughout the war, the U.S. pursued a carpet bombing campaign of every town and city in N. Korea, essentially destroying the entire nation in wave after wave of firebombing.  These atrocities were never reported on the U.S. news, and most of the American population is completely unaware of the fact that the U.S. airforce killed one million or more of N. Korean civilians.  The entire infrastructure of the country was destroyed, and the economy never fully recovered.

The Korean War ended with a cease-fire, not a peace treaty.  Technically, the U.S. and S. Korea remain "at war" with N. Korea. To this day, N. Koreans remember the massive U.S. firebombing campaign, and generally, they hate the U.S.

Both China and Russia viewed N. Korea as important buffer state between their nations (both of which border N. Korea) and the U.S. territory.  As such, both China and Russia supported N. Korea and provided N. Korea economic assistance.  After the Soviet Union fell in 1989, Russia ceased much of its assistance to N. Korea.  The Russians believed (foolishly as it turns out) that the Cold War was over and that the U.S. was no longer their enemy.  Left to their own devices and without assurances of Russian military support, N. Korea began to pursue nuclear technology in the early 1990s.  They did so both for defense and to provide electricity to their population.  Prior to 1989, they had relied on Russian economic assistance to power their economy.  Post 1989, that assistance was no longer forthcoming.

The U.S. immediately cried foul and claimed that N. Korea was violating the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.  Of course, based on that treaty, N. Korea had the right to pursue nuclear technology for peaceful means.  Without Russian energy imports, N. Korea needed nuclear power for electricity because they have no deposits of fossil fuels (just as neither S. Korea nor Japan have any.  This is why Japan has so many nuclear reactors, such as Fukushima).  Without these reactors, the country was literally black.  This is why you will see satellite images of N. Korea showing the entire country as a massive black spot at night between the bright lights of S. Korea and China.

Clinton hammered out a deal with N. Korea in which the U.S. agreed to supply N. Korea with reactor fuel and 2 nuclear reactors in exchange for an end to N. Korean nuclear research.  The U.S. also offered to normalize relations between the two nations, remove N. Korea from its list of nations that support terrorism, and end the "sanctions" (actually an embargo on N. Korea).  The N. Koreans abided by the terms.  They ended their nuclear research.  Everyone agrees on this.  The U.S. did not do any of the things that the U.S. agreed to do.  Then, when N. Korea (still without any electricity and still under a U.S. embargo) restarted their nuclear program, the U.S. imposed additional sanctions in 2013.  Then they did so again when the Imperial congress passed its recent measure, which in effect, makes the sanctions permanent.  Having been now betrayed by the U.S. and subject to permanent embargo, N. Korea is threatening nuclear war.  They have no choice but war.  So, that is how we got to where we are.

Dennis Mack Gyvner's picture

TO: AurorusBorealus

Pretty accurate diatribe except all the anti American hogwash you ellude to.  

What do you bet Iran just sent the skills to build nukes & ICBM's to N. Korea when Obama's Iran bargan come into existance?

Iran appears not to be pursuing nukes and all the while they just do the science & testing in N. Korea waiting for the eventual day (and it will come) that there is an all out confrontation with Iran & the west in the middle east.

DelusionsCrowded's picture

I thought it was Saddam Hussian and Scud Missiles technology ?
Now its Iran , ho hum .

Musum's picture

"The crisis started when Korea was divided after World War II. Russia declared war on Japan in the waning months of hte war and moved into northern Korea. In the post-war world, Russia, with assistance from Red Communists, who held northern China, established a Communist government in the north. The south of Korea was still under Japanese control, which fell to the U.S. after the surrender of Japan. In 1950, North Korea invaded South Korea to unify the peninsula. They viewed the U.S. as colonial usurpers. In a sense, their view was not so different from that of many South Koreans, but the South Koreans had no desire to replace U.S."

This part is misleading or just plain horseshit.

Washington divided the peninsula. Period. End of story. The Soviets/Chinese didn't occupy the North with a view to controlling 1/2 of the peninsula. The division was Washington's idea.

America was also not welcome in the South. Koreans wanted nationwide democratic elections and removal of all former colonial bureaucrats who collaborated with the Japanese. America wanted to install its own puppet leader and keep the colonial apparatchiks in the South.

DelusionsCrowded's picture

So essentially Korea was another geopolitical chess piece to move around at some time in the future , like 2017 .

DelusionsCrowded's picture

The real problem was set in motion , when the USSR survived WW2 . Wrong side won .
Stalin died in 1953

Internet-is-Beast's picture

Nice historical review. My point is not to criticize the US, but to criticize the role of the neocons in having complete control of US foreign policy. Trump said he was going to keep us out of foreign wars, so why has he changed his mind? Two guesses. At this point, the only difference I can see between Hillary and Donald is that Hillary has a faster trigger finger. She anticipates what the neocons order her to do and does it before they give the order. At least with Donald there is a millisecond lag between the order and the bomb.

Dennis Mack Gyvner's picture

TO: Internet-is-Beast

You sir are a complete dumbass. Have you been living under a rock & just popped you illiterate pea brain out for some air?

This war has been building since the early 1950's. You now have a stupid young Korean "man" that has never seen the devistation of war thinking he can crush the US military machine with little effect on himself or his countrymen.

Best you read up on some history before you go shooting off you mouth about something you admittedly know nothing about !!

Internet-is-Beast's picture

At least you didn't call me a dumb hamster! (Go phuck yourself)

Another regional indian.'s picture

I am guessing there wont be a war. Maybe sanctions or regime change, but not a war.

TuPhat's picture

Do I remember how this crisis started?  That's easy, the Korean war never ended.  We were not smart enough to stay out of it and after many deaths and hardship we decided to let it be a tie.  The north never gave up on winning but went for a long term strategy.  And so it continues, to the delight of the NEOCONS who will not give it a rest.

Silversides's picture

A False flag cometh

Dun_Dulind's picture

No its not.  Algorithms don't cry.

Hillarys Server's picture

"President Trump will have to weigh ... when making the toughest call since President Truman ..."

Trump has the button. The world won't end with a call. It will end with a covfefe.

A series of little covfefes on top of each other.

And two or three easy to remember memes which will close the deal, like "We can't trade Seoul for San Francisco" or "He's a mad man".

Do you think Trump will do nothing and accept the meme "loser" written across his forehead?

And Congress doesn't have to agree to declare war since the US and North Korea are technically still at war! The war never ended, there was just an armistice which means we're still at war.

Trump just has to enter the codes from the football or package or whatever it's called and the nukes will be launched within about ten minutes, before Pence or Maxine Waters or the Joint Chiefs of Staff or whoever can brush their teeth and pick up the phone.

Harry Lightning's picture

This article is useless because it assumes a kind of conflagration that will not occur as assumed. If the Chinese do not send an army into North Korea to replace the fat bastard's regime, the US has no choice but to launch a devastating all out nuclear attack on North Korea. The ramifications of that attack differ from the conclusions the author of this article came up with.

Pacman7293's picture

Chinese won't do It. Although they seem to be taking the gradual expansion of territory strategy. I don't think it would be to their advantage to eliminate this threat against the USA and it's allies (which China hates).

Tugg McFancy's picture

Wasn't ZH bemoaning Brian Williams pulling his weenie about this?

Who cares, it's not happening.

I Write Code's picture

Odds are still upwards of 90% that all this will ever be is a war of insults, but that 10% covers a big pot.

Librarian's picture

Bill Clinton gave the Norks this technology during his presidency.

Perhaps we can send he and hillary and chelsea there to try to straighten it out?

Of course we won't negotiate with terrorists if anything goes wrong.  But since Bill set this whole thing into play I'm sure that they will listen to him.

He can be a goddamned hero.  Hillary 3.0 can win the next election and won't that all be just great.

thestarl's picture

Big question is if Trump launches an attack will the Russians and Chinese remain passive?

Wouldn't surprise me to see Putin really turn up the heat in the Ukraine and who could blame him.

If Trump attacks all bets are off.

dogismycopilot's picture

Neither Russia or China vetoed the UN sanctions. I think their silence speaks loudly.

While I don't want Russia to have another failed country on its borders like Ukraine, Fat Boy just won't give it a fucking rest.

 

DelusionsCrowded's picture

He seems to be suffering from some sort of infantile regression .
A fly on the wall at the weekend banquet would see a childish bragget surrounded by sycophantic girly women and doting military 'uncles' . Too Weird .

ebworthen's picture

Sweet.  More dead people.  Too many damn "people" (baboons) on the globe anyway.

Soul Glow's picture

Felt around the world?  Funny, silver had an epic gap higher and really wasn't much written about that here.  Oh well, maybe Tyler is trying to tame the algo bots.

Cockoo's picture

When the US dropped, the bomb on Nagasaki the population was around 250,000 Japanese, 73,000+ were killed, 74,000+ wounded, while more than 120,000 suffered from radiation effects. It amounts to a 29% death ratio back then. Current population Seoul 9,791,000 so 2,839,390 will perish from the face of this earth if we go to war, we have not learned from our history then we are doomed to reap it 2.0 in 2017. One factor to look for is once they start removing dependants from S. Korea you know it is serious.

 

alphasammae's picture

 

 

China has already lined up with 150,000 troops and missiles at the North Korean border and also Russia at their China border. China considers the Korean peninsula vassal nations and they are not going to sit idle if the USA-SK attacks NK. What is the plan after any war with NK?  will NK end up being annexed to China as it happened in Tibet? I am very doubtful that the USA and SK will be able to get and expand into NK after any war. If the war does end you can expect that China local hegemony will increase h and at that point face the Chinese ICBM and nukes which are more powerful than NK will still be around. So what is it to be gained from any war? only the banksters and the military lobby will gain from it.

Fireman's picture

USSANS are so full of crap and have learned nothing since their aristocratic, psychopathic reptilians slaughtered 4 million in South East Asia on a whim. So this time the luciferians say they need to launch "a preventitive war" against Korea. Even as they slit your throat, they are the victims while their presstitutes and their Goebbels' rags churn out the numbing narrative of global USSAN terror for the sheeple. The Khasarian Zionazis will not rest until either USSAN peasants slaughter the lot or said zionazis leave the bankrupt shell of "America" (sic) a smouldering mound of feces and rubble. Either way the garbage in Washing town and the Pentacon scum have massacred all the Koreans they ever will...with impunity. Watch Okinawa and the rest of the Japan occupation fodder along with Guam melt if the luciferians attempt to continue where they left off in 1953.

 

In the end the fat kid in Pyonyang is China's Porky Poroshenko in Kiev and the South China Sea may well turn out to be the latest kick in the face (after the Ukrop disaster and USSA'S I$I$ Syrian abomination). If USSA dares to unleash nuclear weapons on the people of Korea, it will signal nothing more than the reality that the collapsing drug-addled, war mongering nation of mutts is beyond the pale (as if we didn't know) and will have to be dismantled by those that survive this next act of consumate evil by the most disgusting liars on what remains of the planet.

 

https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/04/17/the-problem-is-washington-not-no...

DelusionsCrowded's picture

Donald has a plan , I read it on Twitter .

DelusionsCrowded's picture

It also very possible the US has technology that the Nork's can't counter reply to . Lets hope anyway .

Where are the Sork's in this argument ? Do they get a say when its a good day to die ?

Tubs's picture

China does not want any biohazardous material, fallout and a million failed state soliders coming into their Frontier or the US at their front door. China has more influence on their vassal state than people recognise.

This is sabre rattling at its best.

Will not happen.

 

 

Tugg McFancy's picture

They could fill up a ghost city or two.

Last of the Middle Class's picture

Can we just get on with it. I'm ready for my eternal "alternative minimum income" - -  The eternal snowflake.

farmboy's picture

The only consideration Trump will have are capital markets.

If they blow up then the US will be harder hit then a lost nuke.

East Indian's picture

China will certainly claim North Korea once the Kim dynasty is removed. It has also learnt the tactics of spreading "freedom" and "democracy" through mercenaries. A new "All-Korean" militia will be born, in no time it will arm itself to teeth, and overrun the North Korea bereft of Kim dynasty and junta. 

Let us say ISIS of Far East, only sponsored by China. 

So, war it is. If the Kim boy realizes that China has forsaken him, then he will swing his nuclear weapons far and wide. 

JailBanksters's picture

One way or another every country is going to punished because the Un's don't like Americans and Americans

can't handle countries that don't like them.

There may or not be Nuclear Fallout, Travel disruptions, trade disruptions and so ...

Countries that have absultely nothing to do with it, will be drawn into it one way or another.

I'm sick of this shiite.

reader2010's picture

At the end of WW2, the Japanese military in Korea surrendered to the Soviet Red Army. Stalin kept his promise and divide Korea so Americas could get the other half. Fuck Stalin, what a whimp. He could have kept the entire Korea to the Soviet sphere or at least couldve kept the entire Berlin. Stalin had high hope the US would give him peace until Churchill advocated the Cold War right after he gave half of Korea and Berlin away.