Tech Wrecks, Credit Crashes, & VIX Goes Vertical - "Probably Nothing"

Tyler Durden's picture

"Pause that refreshes"


Well that escalated quickly... From the open on Tuesday, the "fire and fury" dump, the ubiquitous BTFD ramp dead cat bounce... and today's flush...

"Not Off The Lows"



  • Nasdaq, Dow, S&P, Small Caps worst day in 3 months (to one month lows)
  • S&P Tech Sector worst day in 2 months
  • Financials worst day in 3 months
  • HYG (HY Bond) worst 3-day move in 5 months (to lowest since March)
  • VIX biggest 3-day spike since Aug 2015 China deval.
  • Gold's best 3-day rally in 3 months
  • Yuan biggest 3-day gain in 2 months

Year-to-Date, Small Caps and Trannies are not doing so hot...


FANG Stocks plunged over 2.5% - worst day in two months - erasing all the NFLX earnings gains...


S&P VIX pushed up to 16, smashing through its 200DMA...this will be the highest close since the election


Nasdaq broke and closed below its 50DMA...


Nasdaq VIX topped 19 - its highest since June...


XIV (inverse VIX ETF) plunged to its 100DMA...


Black & Blue Apron...


Credit markets have suddenly woken up with HY spreads blowing out by the most in 5 months...


With HY Corporate bond prices broke below their 200DMA...


Treasury yields tumbled - bond prices erased all the losses post-payrolls...


With 30Y back to its lowest since June...


The Dollar Index slide for much of the day but accelerated lower after Trump's late-day comments...5th day in a row that the dollar has rallied overnight and into the European close and dumped after...


Yuan and Yen strength are dominating the downward pressure on the dollar...


Gold continued to surge - hitting two-month highs...


And WTI was clubbed on OPEC production headlines and chatter on Russian output increases...after the machines had run the $50 stops...


Stock markets starting to catch down to reality?


Long way to go yet...

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Overleveraged_and_Impatient's picture

Well I don't know what to say except this is just another bump in the road on the way to S&P 3000 by year end. For the longest time bearish investors have been calling the top and being wrong. Why would this time be different? This is the new Economy. The new Paradigm. Nothing has changed.

Janet Yellen still has our back. Donald Trump is allowing this drop to happen. This is all a typical plot to crush more bears and short sellers. Folks, I'm here to tell you that I'm staying on track. I am holding on tightly to my 3x Long Leveraged S&P 500 positions. Infact, I may be buying more tomorrow morning. I am still up massively on the year and think this is absolutely the position to hold.

Central banks are still injecting, they can change their mind in an instant. This interview its "oh, I think we'll hold off on the asset purchases" then next meeting it's "well upon further review we will now have to do MORE asset purchases." It's all a big game at this point, and those who have advantage at the game want the Stock Market to rise continuously. So that is what will happen.

You think a "crash" is coming up? You think this is really the start of the "Big One?" LMAO. Don't get me started. If necessary, the powers that be can and will use the nuclear option to keep the stock market at all time highs. In fact, go ahead. Short the market. I dare you. You already know what's going to happen. I've tried it,  and it never ends well. Tomorrow will probably see us come right back to to normal levels. Shorters will be squashed like bugs per usual.

They can clear up the NK drama in no time. Yellen can and will get right back on the mic and set this market straight again. S&P 500 at 3000 by year end, and 4500 by Q1 2019.

SheepRevolution's picture

Kim vs Kim:

<---- Kim Jong Un

<---- Kim Kardashian

PrezTrump's picture

We have a bunch of new shorts to slaughter.  BTFD.  The central banks will, will you?

D.r. Funk's picture

Shiller pe over great depression pre crash level. It ends the same. Every time. Abnormal anomalyous high levels or peaks always. always. always. revert. to the norm. 1. you're wrong. 2. you're only 'contributing' to the eventual mean reversion event


OverTheHedge's picture

I fully agree to your logic, but it presupposes that assets are owned by private market participants. Given that the SNB is on a buying spree, and the plunge protection team is an actual thing, it is theoretically possible that markets may never fall again.

I am still working on the theory that significant inflation (currency depreciation) is the only way out, and significant asset appreciation is part of that. Markets up 50% would not be out of the question, except it would really mean $ down by a proportionate amount.

Overleveraged_and_Impatient's picture

Thank you. Exactly. Agree 100%. +1000

cheeseheader's picture

Well, I hope you're wrong sir, but in the meantime I'm a gonna go out and pick up some nice picture frames and then I'm a gonna print out nice and big some of these here charts.


It's a nice start....

HominyTwin's picture

I hope you're right. I sold a bunch of out of the money puts. None are in the money right now, but hooolleeee fucking shit I am sweating. This is stupid. All this Noko talk is just talk. It would take a lot more preparation to launch a strike on NoKo.

T.Gracchus's picture

You'll do well with your blinkered faith in Old Man Yellen. Do well today, do well tomorrow....then at some point you never expected you'll just be moth dust against the glass.

Save the hubris fuckwit, we don't even envy your bullshit, soon to evaporate 'wealth' 

D.r. Funk's picture

It's not faith. You realize it could be a "madeup" assertion, right? You realize it may not actually really be an authenticly positioned trader? (Which I have contended highly, as such)

How do you so many of you Not question information being presented to you? Unreal

At least, cogitate the scenario that it is a henchman, of those in charge (or ptb) giving you pleasantries on the surface (lol). You know like purposefully trying to keep you playing the game?...

U4 eee aaa's picture

That's the beauty of today's internet is that he can screenshot his proof. If you can't post an image then it really didn't happen

D.r. Funk's picture


nice try. trying to sound convincingly contrarian.

As if everyone wrong about a crash coming given the context of a fully commandeered programmed equity market are not-valid never-valid will-never-be-valid.

D.r. Funk's picture


O_AND_I is propaganda (!)

Some of you ripped me for saying "mind control". mocking voice: oh yaa, oh ya mind control. What else do you call it? Lol. It's mind control

awarebulldog's picture

You are either right or your are wrong.  It really has to be one or the other and if your are wrong sooner is better.  I am still uncertain what it will be.  I think it should go back to where price valuations can be meaured and we can make informed decisions and buy things we know have value.  The reason I think this is important is for millenials and the younger generations.  If the inflated stock market goes on for a longer time the younger people are having to pay huge prices and get screwed some time in the future when it ever reverts.  Thier 401Ks are stuck with this same stock market.  Or, you might be right and the CBs keep it inflated forever and that is the new normal.  ZH has shown the economy hard data is not doing well and the rediculous stock prices do not reflect the real situation.  My prefernce would be to get back to rational prices now and get it over with but I can see it going either way.  

D.r. Funk's picture

confidence and judgment to the fed just because they've controlled skyhigh bloated stocks for 7 years. how, is it possible, you still give so much credibility to the fed. and bb. or jy. oh and O and I isnt real. lol.

Solosides's picture

I fit into the millenial bracket. What 401K?

trgfunds's picture

This whole thing is staged to harvest more capital. Pre-planned, scripted. I also have a serious issue with the "Pentagon releases plans for pre-emptive strike" bullshit. None of this passes the smell test. And the herd just EATS IT UP. There are so many degenerate low IQ cave men just buying into the "USA good guy / Norko bad guy" mainstream it isn't even funny, and the best part is, the whole god damned thing is manufactured. They're all repeating something they heard on the TV! The new economy is: Seed the masses with fake info, get them to react to fake info, scare them into a corner and rob them. There is nothing real left. And this is the fear game is the total mechanism by which they do it. They don't need a war. They need the constant threat of a war. They don't need a depression, they need the constant threat of a depression, etc. etc. There is actually some evidence to suggest that North Korea is a fake state used specifically for this purpose. Kim Jong Un went to heavy duty western intelligence agency schools in Switzerland with CIA and MI6 kids. Kim Jong Un uses an iPhone. I mean wtf. Talk about THAT for a second. Not the first time that a major power set up an frenemy to preserve their status. This is old hat shit guys.

creeko's picture

You deserve an award for the clarity and insight you presented in one paragraph.  It should be copied and pasted it into every ZH article about NK and war and nukes and so on and so on.  Blah blah blah... all fake shit, all the time.  And yes, I'm starting to think that economic collapse is also fake shit.  Maybe the game is up for THEM, but not for anyone else.  Could be.

Solosides's picture

You really should start shopping for section 8 apartments for when the casino floor is pulled out from underneath you.

And you dare me to short the market? It's just like wargames, "the only way to win is not to play"

RawPawg's picture

When the days of not being able to see ZH per Internet Outage

I'll still have Memories of the first Time I saw the "Deer In the Headlights" meme

it will give me reasoning and hope while tilling the backyard gardens

101 years and counting's picture

dont worry, some Fed head will announce tomorrow morning there will be more printing should stocks drop more than 3%, or crisis with Korea or the debt ceiling, etc.....and today will be quickly forgotten.

Rainman's picture

"Gary Cohn crowned new Chairsatan" ... "markets soar" ...wait for it

Clock Crasher's picture

October 2014 I thought the top was in

August 2015 I thought the top was in

February 2016 I thought the top was in

Today in 2017 I'm not so sure the top is in

As soon as we come down to the 45% uptrending slope line we should absolutely explode higher for another decade. The 1982 bull market didn't really stop until 2001.

Gold/Silver/Vix/Bitcoin, for what its worth -Give em hell!

SheepRevolution's picture

Are you trying to convince yourself that the top is in by saying to yourself that the top probably isn't in? That's so cool dude!

Clock Crasher's picture

Nah, I am in maximum capitulation mode.  I'm starting to think a stock market decline is a matter of national security.  If anything, higher stock prices are better for the gold bull thesis if you believe in Dow:Gold normalization. 

The stock market would need to 1- decline 25% or more then 2- Rally but fail to come close to its former all time high then 3- take out the previous declines on massive volume.. and no ZIRP no QE4.

Chances of that happening are... well I'll let you calculate that.

Not My Real Name's picture

At some point, the dow:gold ratio is going to 1. 

If the sheep remain in their "almighty dollar" stupor, thereby delaying hyperflation, we have a good chance of seeing both the Dow and gold at 10,000. If the dollar implodes, then 100,000+++ , here we come.


LawsofPhysics's picture

Yep, it is all about the denominator now...

"Full Faith and Credit"

D.r. Funk's picture

The 1982 bull market had a major productive capacity. computers. I'll leave sarcastic comment out but try to name anything that comes close right now

LawsofPhysics's picture

Well, if we actually have them...


fusion reactors...?


It really is all about calories available for consumption...

BlueHorseShoeLovesDT's picture

Guess that 3X long guy shouldn't have been fired from his job.

Overleveraged_and_Impatient's picture

I am still at my job. Thanks for your concern.

Squid Viscous's picture

can you check that rattling noise under my left rear quarter panel?


Two Theives and a Liar's picture

QQQ and SPY Oct Puts looking very good atm :)

PrezTrump's picture

that's hilarious and sad.  watch those puts decay to zero.

MuffDiver69's picture

Predictable as the sun setting...

QE4MeASAP's picture

Fucking A, "not off the lows!"  How many times did we see "off the lows" yesterday?

Bomb the living bejeepers out of those forces.  Fuck'em up MacArthur style.  As long as we all die, who really cares?

LawsofPhysics's picture

If you want to see something funny, pretty much the last weak ass pulse of real trading in the market, chart the FAZ from from inception to today to view the BERNANKE BOMB...


Let me know when to BTFD!!


"Full Faith and Credit"

WarPony's picture

IMO BTFD, asap. And remember, U can't give an IOU to UPS for a COD, they'll call the LEOs PDQ.

poland spring's picture

Dow up 200 pts tomorrow.

ZH headline "Biggest short squeeze since (pick a month)" with the applicable chart to go with it....

LawsofPhysics's picture

+20...  (TRILLION dollars that is...)

cheeseheader's picture

Perhaps, but only after a big gap open down.


Might be a good day for selling puts' and calls' both.  Gotta have them Bollinger bands spread waaay out there.